Latest News

Iron ore pessimism subsides despite looming Simandou supply

Analysts and traders agree that the prospects for iron ore price are improving due to a smaller than expected global surplus in this year. However, new supply coming from the massive Simandou project, located in Guinea, remains a downside risk on a longer-term basis.

More than a dozen analysts and traders interviewed at this week's Singapore International Ferrous Week said that their forecasts of oversupply for this year have been reduced from 50,000,000 tons to between 20,000,000 and 30,000,000 metric tons.

The reason is that demand has been resilient this year, thanks to strong steel exports. Buyers stocked up on steel amid signs of a global trade war escalating while cyclones in Australia disrupted the supply.

Official data revealed that in the first four month of 2025 China's imports of iron ore fell 5.5% on an annual basis, while its crude steel production increased 0.4%.

Iron ore price Steel prices have remained well above $90 a ton. Below that price, high-cost miner struggle to make a profit. This is despite the trade tensions between two of the world's largest economies, which have raised concerns about the future outlook for steel demand.

Analysts and traders have revised up their bearish pricing scenarios from $75 to $85 per tonne at the beginning of the year.

Analysts say that the medium term demand for Iron Ore will remain strong because China's new fleet of blast-furnaces will need iron ore for another decade.

According to the current life cycle of equipment in China, there won't be a big reduction in blast furnaces by 2035. This means that iron ore will remain at a high level," Long Hongming said in a speech delivered on Tuesday.

SIMANDOU

Simandou is one of the largest high-grade ore mines in the world. It will begin shipping ore to the market by November. This entry should exacerbate the glut on the global iron ore market starting 2026.

The increasingly hostile attitude by the military government of Guinea, which has recently cancelled 129 exploration permits for minerals and is in a standoff against Emirates Global Aluminium, caused concern among traders, analysts, and steel mills attending the conference in Singapore.

Participants asked whether the government’s aggressive stance would affect the smoothness of the project’s ramp-up to its full production level of 120 million tonnes a year.

Simandou is the joint venture of Rio Tinto (the world's biggest iron ore mining company) and Chinese companies, including China Baowu. China Baowu is the largest steel producer in the world by production. Reporting by Amy Lv, Hongmei Li. Mark Potter edited the article.

(source: Reuters)