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Andy Home: Congo is China's strategic supplier of copper

Andy Home: Congo is China's strategic supplier of copper

China's massive investment in mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo is paying off in the form of a surge in physical copper imports.

In 2024, the Congo will increase its exports of refined copper by 71% per annum to 1,48 million metric tonnes. The Congo is the largest metal refiner in the world. Chinese operators dominate Congo’s copper belt, and the metal flow between the two nations is emerging as a structural change in the global marketplace.

It is a risky one, however, as it could reduce the usefulness in reading China's pulse on copper imports to gauge Chinese demand.

The total imports of refined Copper last year was the second highest ever, but how much demand and how much African Supply pushed?

Import Strength

A flurry unprecedented of Chinese exports popped the bull-bubble of copper in the middle last year. This shattered a narrative of a shortage on the market.

The unusual outbound flow was caused by an equally unusal dislocation in global arbitrage due to a squeeze of the CME Copper contract.

Most of the exports from China went to London Metal Exchange in Taiwan and South Korea, to take advantage of the price surge.

In the second half, the outbound flood was reduced to a trickle. Imports, that had been remarkably steady during the export boom, increased in the final months of 2024.

In fact, the total amount of imported refined copper increased by 8.6% per year to 4,04 million tons in 2030, which was only exceeded in 2020 when imports reached a record high of 4.67 million tonnes.

According to data from the local provider Shanghai Metal Market, China's production of refined cuproum rose 5.4% or 620,000 tonnes last year.

Copper price and macroeconomic indicators do not confirm the recovery in demand that comes from the combination of high domestic production with high imports.

The official PMI for China showed a contraction in manufacturing activity in January. Meanwhile, LME's three-month copper has struggled to maintain the $9,500 per ton level, let alone surpass last year's record highs of $10,000.

CONGO RISE

China's copper exports to Congo may be increasing simply because Congo's production has increased and its output is going by default to China.

The CMOC Group of China has flooded the cobalt markets with surplus supply from its Congo operations, but cobalt is only a byproduct of copper. Copper production has risen by 55% in the last year, reaching 650,000 tonnes in 2024.

The Congo is now the second-largest copper producer in the world, surpassing Peru.

Chilean metal was once the dominant copper supplier to China, but in 2024, shipments dropped to a 18-year low and only accounted for 14.3% of total imports.

Congo's share in Chinese copper imports increased from 10% to 36.7% by 2020, with volumes increasing steadily over the fourth quarter. The 167,735 tonnes of copper imported in December set a monthly record.

The Lobito corridor project, which upgrades the railway between Angola's port of Lobito, and Congo's mines for copper, will facilitate more exports into the West. In August of last year, Lobito Atlantic Railways shipped its first shipment to the United States.

Chinese owned mines will continue to ship most of their metals to China, unless they have a strong financial motivation to divert it to another market.

LIMITED EXCHANGE OPTIONS

Exchange delivery is not likely to be the incentive.

CME does not have any registered brands for DRC copper, and LME only has two - SCM and COMIKA. The 122,400 tonnes of copper produced annually is a small percentage of Congo's total production. At the end of last month, DRC copper stocks registered on LME were just 3,775 tonnes.

Shanghai Futures Exchange also doesn't register any Congo brands, which means that the metal is likely to trade at a lower price on the Chinese domestic market.

Congo's surge in supply has bypassed visible stocks to head straight for China's physical market due to the lack of delivery options. It's unlikely that this will change, as China continues to focus on supply-chain security.

The flow of metal from Congo to China will increase as the production increases, regardless of the Chinese demand.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)