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China's steel sector is softening, but with resilience: Russell

There are two ways of looking at the 1.7% decrease in China's steel output last year.

The very first is that it verifies that the world's biggest manufacturer of the crucial industrial metal is now in an established downtrend, and even more weakness is likely this year.

The second is that the steel industry is really remarkably resilient in the face of significant financial obstacles, which output has actually been essentially flat at incredibly strong levels for the previous five years.

Both are basically accurate, and reflect the traditional glass half-full or half-empty problem.

On the half-empty side of the ledger is the truth that China's steel production peaked at 1.065 billion metric tons in 2020, and has actually trended lower ever since, with 2024 output coming in at 1.005 billion loads.

However another way to look at China's steel output is that it has been within a 70 million load variety in between 2019 and 2024, which is really rather a steady performance.

Possibly the best method to characterise China's steel production is that it likely has actually peaked, however the decline up until now has actually been mild, and output stays relatively high in spite of the well-publicised battles of the world's second-biggest economy since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The concern then ends up being, what is the most likely trajectory for China's steel sector in 2025?

Comparable to other markets, the response stays unclear and based on elements yet to come into play, chief among them what trade tariffs are put in place by the brand-new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, who resumed the office on Monday.

It's likewise unsure regarding whether 2025 is the year China's. struggling home sector returns on its feet, or. whether it stays hostage to weak developer balance sheets and. consumer wariness.

A 3rd element is what will happen to China's steel exports. in 2025, after they hit a nine-year high of 110.72 million heaps. in 2024.

This was up 22.7%, or just over 20 million heaps, from the. previous year, with the increase helping to offset some loss of. domestic usage for steel mills.

The volume of Chinese steel hitting worldwide markets has led. to some consternation amongst nations such as India, which is. attempting to improve the rate of expansion of its own steel sector.

This raises the possibility that China might find it more difficult to. boost steel exports in 2025.

But it is worth keeping in mind that not all importing nations are. opposed to purchasing more steel from China, particularly those. without a domestic steel sector.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO

The best-case situation for China's steel sector this year is. one where trade tariffs aren't too punitive, the domestic. economy continues to regain momentum and building and construction activity. stabilises, or perhaps even boosts.

Under such a scenario, the best outcome for China's steel. production would be consistent output around 1 billion tons.

This likewise indicates that China's need for iron ore is likely. to stay stable too, although it may ease from the record. high of 1.24 billion lots in 2024.

This is largely because much of the 4.9% rise in imports,. which was equivalent to 57.5 million heaps, went to replenish. stockpiles rather than meet increased demand for the essential steel. raw material.

Port inventories kept an eye on by experts SteelHome. << SH-TOT-IRONINV > ended last year at 146.85 million loads, up 32.4. million from the 114.5 million at the end of 2023. It's not likely that stockpiles will increase once again highly in. 2025, which is most likely to limit iron ore imports, although if the. down trend in rates of 2024 extends into this year, traders. may be tempted to take advantage of more affordable materials. The views revealed here are those of the author, a writer.

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(source: Reuters)