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China's strong iron ore imports diverge from weak steel output: Russell

China's. first quarter imports of iron ore and its domestic production of. the steel basic material both increased highly, however output of crude. steel fell.

This divergence sets up a dilemma that can be fixed in a. variety of methods, consisting of lower iron ore imports, an increase to. steel output or a sustained rise in China's iron ore stockpiles.

China, which buys more than 70% of global seaborne iron ore. volumes, saw imports rise by 5.5% in the very first quarter to 310.13. million metric tons, up 15.79 million from 294.34 million in the. initially three months of 2023.

At the very same time, domestic output of iron ore rose 15.3% to. 284.1 million lots in the first quarter, a gain of 37.7 million. tons.

Nevertheless, China, which makes simply over 50% of the world's. steel, saw unrefined steel output drop 1.9% to 256.55 million loads. in the very first quarter from the same duration a year previously.

In general, the picture that emerges is China is seeing strong. development in both iron ore imports and domestic output, however. weakness in steel production.

On the surface, the method this contradiction is being solved. is through increasing inventories of iron ore at China's ports.

Stockpiles monitored by specialists SteelHome. << SH-TOT-IRONINV > slipped somewhat in the week to April 19 to. 143.1 million tons, down from the 23-month high of 143.6 million. the previous week.

Stocks have increased by 38.2 million loads, or 36.4% because. the 7 1/2- year low of 104.9 million from the week to Oct. 27.

What has taken place since the October inventory low is that. China's traders and steel mills have increased buying, partially in. action to hopes that development worldwide's second-biggest. economy is accelerating and partially to restore diminished. stockpiles.

COST RALLY

The cost of iron ore futures traded in Singapore. rallied highly in the fourth quarter of last year as imports. ticked higher, increasing from a low of $116.14 a load on Oct. 9 to a. peak of $143.60 on Jan. 4 this year.

Ever since, the rate has trended lower, dropping to a. trough of $98.36 a heap on April 4, but has actually since recovered. slightly to end at $110.89 on April 19.

While China's iron ore imports have actually balanced above 100. million lots monthly for the last 6 months, the buying has. been in 2 phases.

The first was a restocking period in the fourth quarter of. in 2015, and the 2nd appears to have been buying as rates. softened and expectations of a recovery in the distressed home. sector increased.

The question for the marketplace is whether iron ore imports can. continue at a high level in the face of soft steel production.

The message from Beijing's policymakers is that they will. continue to handle steel output, which is mostly taken to mean. that production will be capped around the 1 billion heaps per. year level that has actually persisted for the past five years.

If China's steel output is to stay fairly constant, it. does imply that iron ore imports need to likewise level off.

China's domestic iron ore output is likewise an aspect, but the. boost in very first quarter production comes with a caveat,. insofar as it's most likely that the general iron material is more or. less stable provided China's structural problem of decreasing ore. grades.

If the presumption is for mostly steady steel production,. for iron ore imports to show continual growth implies inventories. will continue to develop, or domestic iron ore production weakens. on an understood iron ore material basis, if not on a volumes of ore. mined basis.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)