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Bonds and world stocks are tumbling, but the yen is not helping.
Wall Street opened higher, while the yen fell to near-all-time lows versus the euro. Higher interest rates put pressure on Japanese government bonds. S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%. Nasdaq futures gained 0.1%. MSCI's broadest world share index added 0.2%. Due to the fact that the?U.S. The?U.S. Investors are primarily focused on closing the year before January's inflation and labour market releases," he said. Even though it was a holiday-shortened weekend for most of the world, momentum funds continued to flow to equities and precious metals ahead of delayed data which is expected to show that the U.S. economic growth has been strong in the third quarter. Median estimates predict an annualised increase of 3.2%. This is due to a steep drop in imports following a surge earlier in the year in anticipation of tariffs. Analysts at BofA cautioned that their measure of investor confidence had moved to extreme bullish territory, at 8.5. This is often the prelude to an eventual reversal. The Fund Manager Survey reveals the most positive sentiment in three-and-a half years. This is due to expectations of tariff and tax cuts, as well as rate reductions. European shares dithered 0.2% lower Monday in thin markets as investors began a week shortened by holidays on a tepid tone following the previous session’s record high close. The Nikkei 225 index of Japan closed up 1.8%. This was a continuation of Friday's gains, as the sharp decline in yen is expected to boost Japanese export earnings. Chinese blue-chip stocks closed almost 1% higher. The Bank of Japan increased rates to a 30 year high of 0.75 percent and warned that more would be raised, which would have a devastating effect on government debt. The yields on 10-year government bonds soared another 6 basis points, to 2.08%. This is the highest level since 1999. The minutes of the BOJ's meeting are due Wednesday. On Christmas Day, the head is scheduled to speak at a Japanese business group. On Interception Watch The yen reached a new record low against the euro of 184.92. The dollar gained 0.3% to 157.37. Investors were wary about testing the November high of 157.90, in case Tokyo intervened. Japanese officials have expressed their concern about the one-way movement and warned against excessive decline. Analysts at TD Securities reported that equity markets saw their largest weekly inflows ever at $98 billion, with U.S. equity fund leading the way. Chinese equity funds recorded their third-largest weekly inflow since 2025. Emerging markets also saw their biggest inflow since April. The fourth consecutive week saw a slowdown in the flow of?tobonds. The yields on U.S. 10 year bonds increased by 2 basis points, to about 4.169%. On Monday, gold jumped above the $4,400 per ounce mark for the first-time, fueled by a combination of growing expectations about further U.S. interest rate cuts, and strong demand from safe-haven investors. Silver has also reached a new record high of $69.44. This brings the gains for this year up to nearly 140%. Oil prices rose after the U.S. intercepted an oil tanker from Venezuela over the weekend and were pursuing another in what would have been the third such operation within two weeks. Brent crude oil jumped $1.13 cents, to $61.60 per barrel. U.S. crude oil rose $0.06 cents, to $57.56 a barrel. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates, Toby Chopra and Wayne Cole)
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After a zero-fee processing deal, copper reaches new highs
The copper price reached a new record high on Monday. This was largely due to speculation and news of a Chinese smelter's zero-fees processing agreement. Benchmark - three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% to $11,955 per metric tonne by 1100 GMT after touching a record high of $11,996. LME copper prices have risen 36% in the past year. This is largely due to fears of mine problems causing deficits for next year. Sources said that the supply concerns were highlighted 'on Friday, when Antofagasta Chilean miner and a Chinese Smelter agreed to a 'zero processing fee in 2026 for copper concentrate. This was the lowest amount ever agreed upon during annual negotiations. When supply is restricted, processing fees will decline. Commodity Market Analytics' managing director, Dan Smith, said that the markets are generally buoyant. This shows there is a lot of liquid in the system. Gold and silver reached record levels, as oil prices soared. Smith said that although copper prices were still high, the demand for it was waning. "It seems like the demand is slowing down." "EV sales have slowed down and the consumer economy in China is showing signs of weakness." The most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended daytime trading with a 1.7% increase to?94320 yuan (about $13,397.92 per ton). Nickel, the top performer at the LME, rose 1.6% to $15.040 per ton following reports last week that the country would reduce its mine production in 2026. SHFE nickel climbed for the fourth session in a row, reaching a record high of more than 121 360 yuan, which is the highest level seen in over a month. ($1 = 7.0399 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Eric Onstad; Additional reporting by Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan in China; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise) $1 = 7.0399 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise; Additional reporting in China by Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan and Emelia Sithole Matarise).
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Swiss court admits Indonesian Islanders climate case against Holcim
A Swiss court said Monday that it would accept a lawsuit against Holcim, a Swiss cement manufacturer. The complaint alleged the company was doing too little in order to reduce carbon emissions. Four residents from the low-lying Indonesian Island of Pari who have been repeatedly flooded by warmer temperatures?pushing up sea levels?, filed a legal complaint to the cantonal Court in?Zug in Switzerland in January 2023. The court admitted the case, but said that it could be reversed in a subsequent appeal if it found that the procedural requirements were not met. Holcim has announced that it will appeal the ruling and that the issue of "who can emit how much CO2?" should be decided by lawmakers, not a civil court. Swiss Church Aid, a non-profit organization that is supporting the Pari case, stated in a press release that this was the first time a Swiss court had admitted climate litigation against a large company. We are delighted. This decision gives me the strength to fight on," Ibu Asmania said in a statement by Swiss Church Aid. Ibu is one of four Pari residents who are pursuing this case. This is great news for our family and us. The NGOs that backed the complainants said they chose Holcim as it is one of the largest carbon dioxide emitters in the world and "a so-called Carbon Major" in Switzerland. Holcim has stated that it is committed to achieving net zero by the year 2050, and follows a 'rigorous, science-based' approach to reach this goal. The company also claims to have reduced CO2 emissions directly from its operations more than 50% in the last five years. The plaintiffs want compensation from Holcim, for the climate damage that they have experienced. They also want financial support in flood prevention measures and a reduction in CO2 emissions. Global Cement and Concrete Association reports that cement production is responsible for about 7% CO2 emissions worldwide. (Reporting and editing by Dave Graham, Denis Balibouse)
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EU investigates Czech State Support for Two New Nuclear Units
The European Commission announced on Monday that it had opened an investigation to determine whether the public support that Czech Republic plans to provide for?the construction and operation of two new nucleonic units is in compliance with EU State Aid rules. After EDF France's appeals were rejected, the Czech Republic's Competition Authority in April cleared the path for the signing of contracts with South Korea for two units in Dukovany worth at least $400 billion Czech crowns ($19.30billion) after they?rejected their appeals. In a press release, the Commission stated that it had "doubts" about the 'appropriateness' and 'proportionality? of the aid package provided by the Czech government. The Commission also questioned the impact on the market of the aid package and whether it was in compliance with EU law. According to the Commission, The Czech Republic intends to provide a low interest repayable state loan with an initial amount between $26.99 billion and $30 billion, as well as two-way contract of difference for a duration of up to 40 years. The Commission also plans to create a mechanism that will protect?the beneficiary of the EDU II support, which is owned 80% by the Czech government?, from any policy changes or adverse effects.
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Dalian Iron Ore continues to gain on tight BHP supplies and firmer hot metal production
On Monday, Dalian iron ore futures gained for a fifth session due to the tight supply of BHP’s?Jimblebar fines and Jingbao's fines. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE) rose 0.58%, to 781.5 Yuan ($111.01) per metric ton. As of 0710 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.05% to $104.65 per ton. Atilla Widnell, managing Director at Navigate Commodities, Singapore, stated that prices rose due to a limited supply of BHP's Jimblebar & Jingbao Fines. This left most Chinese mills represented state-owned China Mineral Resources Group with no choice but to purchase larger volumes of Rio Tinto’s Pilbara Fines. Widnell stated that the Pilbara fines were a key component of the underlying index for iron ore futures, which is used to benchmark them. This pushed up prices across the board, Widnell added. Navigate Commodities data showed that hot metal production in China, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, has been increasing since mid-September, 2025. Everbright Futures, a Chinese broker, reported that steel mill profitability had gradually recovered, with some mills having resumed production. According to Mysteel, the increased iron ore price in recent years has accelerated investment?into new mining capacities, pushing global iron ore markets into a?decisive expansion phase, according to Mysteel. SteelHome data shows that total iron ore stocks across Chinese ports increased by 1.19% week-on-week, to 145.5 million tonnes as of December 19. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, have gained in popularity. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen. Rebar climbed 0.39%; hot-rolled coil 0.28%; wire rod 2.94%; and stainless steel 1.82%. ($1 = 7.0400 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Lucas Liew; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Candidates of the opposition in Guinea's presidential election after coup
Here's a list of the candidates who will be challenging Guinea junta chief Mamady Doumbouya at Sunday's first presidential election since his coup in 2021. ABDOULAYE YERO BALDDE Balde, 60 years old, is the leader of?Democratic Front of Guinea(FRONDEG). He is an economist who holds degrees from Columbia University and the Sorbonne. In 2020, he left?Alpha Conde’s party to oppose Conde's bid for a second term. Conde won the election in 2010 but was overthrown in a coup in 2021. He now lives in exile. Balde was a former vice-governor of the central bank and minister for higher education. He is a Fulani, the largest ethnic group in Guinea, just like the exiled opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo who is not running for election and is also living in exile. Balde is a strong candidate who could capture an important share of the opposition vote. FAYA LANSANA MILLIMONO Millimono (63), the standard-bearer of the Liberal Bloc, initially backed Doumbouya’s junta. This led to strained ties with other parties, such as Diallo’s Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea and Conde’s Rally of the Guinean People. Later, he became a critic and reacted with a more aggressive stance after Doumbouya announced that he would not run for election. Millimono was a candidate in the 2015 presidential elections, and won around 1,4% of the votes against Conde. He holds a PhD from the University of Montreal in Educational Administration. IBRAHIMA ABE SYLLA Sylla was a 74-year-old member of the?parliament prior to the coup in 2021, which led to the dissolution of the?National Assembly. He was appointed energy minister by Doumbouya. However, he no longer holds that position. Sylla's New Generation for the Republic party (NGR) has a large following among the young people of the Basse-Guinee coast region, including the capital Conakry. He studied and lived in the United States. HADJA MAKALE CAMARA Camara is the sole woman running for the presidency. She is the president of Front for National Alliance and served as Foreign Affairs Minister under Conde between 2016 and 2017. Camara, a lawyer by profession, is running for the presidency for a second time. In 2020, Camara won 0.7% of the votes. ABDOULAYE - KOUROUMA Kourouma is the youngest candidate, at 42 years old, and is an economist from Russia. He was a member of parliament before the coup. He was close to Conde despite winning only 0.5% of the votes in the 2020 election. MOHAMED NABE Nabe is a relative newcomer to politics. He was trained as an economics at the London School of Economics, and he previously worked as a sales director for a large cement production company in Guinea. He is the leader of Alliance for Renewal and Progress. BOUNA KEITA Keita is a self-made 'diamond merchant' and leader of Rally for a Prosperous Guinea. He has run for the second time after gaining 0.8% in 2010. Keita is not considered a serious candidate. MOHAMED CHERIF HAIDARA Haidara is the only independent candidate besides Doumbouya. He is virtually unknown during this campaign. Reporting by Guinea Newsroom; Editing done by Portia, Crowe and Russell.
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Andy Home: The ROI-EV Revolution continues, but the battery metals are losing their charge.
The third year has been tough for battery metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt. All three markets are struggling to absorb the supply wave that followed the price boom of 2022. The electric vehicle revolution continues. The demand for batteries, and the metals needed to make them work, is still rising at an accelerated pace. It is only a matter time before the current glut of supply is absorbed by demand. This was at least the hope. Chinese companies are undergoing a technological revolution at the same time, as they work to create ever-more powerful batteries for ever-lower costs. Battery chemistry is evolving fast and it is already apparent that not all battery metals will be winners in the fierce competition between materials. CHINA POWERS UP Electrification is currently a bumpy road. The U.S. president Donald Trump has reversed the Biden administration’s EV subsidies, and the European Union deferred the phase-out of combustion engine vehicles beyond 2035. The momentum remains unabated. According to Rho Motion, global EV sales grew by 21% on an annual basis to reach 18.5 million cars in the first eleven months of 2025. China continues to be the driving force behind the global technological shift. This year, the world's biggest EV market grew by 19% and accounted for 62% global sales. No one should be surprised that Chinese companies are leading the charge in the battery chemistry revolution. The Chinese EV market is now dominated by batteries using lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistry. These batteries are cheaper and safer than those that use a combination nickel, cobalt, and manganese. LFP was responsible for 48% global EV batteries in 2017. Macquarie Bank has revised its forecast to expect that this share will rise to 65% in 2029. This is a significant increase from the previous 49%. Nickel and Cobalt in the Slow Lane It is clear that this news is not good for Indonesia or the Democratic Republic of the Congo. They are the two largest nickel and cobalt producers in the world. Indonesia has not tempered its production growth in order to reflect the reality of new batteries, creating a tsunami surplus metal. The country's nickel is increasingly being shipped to a London Metal Exchange warehouse (LME), rather than a battery-precursor plant. LME warehouse stock - registered or off-warrantee - has exploded to 338.900 tons. This is only the second month since 2021 that the LME nickel price has fallen below its long-term support of $15,000 per ton. It puts more pressure on Indonesian policymakers to curb the nickel boom in the country. Cobalt prices are also in a similar situation of chronic oversupply. Congo stopped exports in February, and then introduced a quota-based system in October. The slow implementation of new rules led to the complete stoppage of shipments of cobalt-based intermediates to Chinese refineries. Congo's supply discipline could become a supply shock. This could be costly for a nickel-based metal that already struggles to maintain its share in battery chemistry. The price volatility of cobalt and ethical issues associated with the artisanal mining industry in Congo are a concern for automakers. The events of this year will only confirm these concerns and could accelerate attempts to remove cobalt from the equation for batteries. LITHIUM DOMINANT ... FOR NOW China's shift to?LFP (Lithium-Fluid-Phase) chemistry has reinforced its importance. Adamas Intelligence, a consultancy, estimates that 60,900 tonnes of lithium was deployed on roads worldwide in September. This is a 25% increase year-on-year, which matches the growth of total battery deployment. Nickel and cobalt lagged behind with deployment growth rates of 10% and 15% respectively. But lithium is also facing a new challenge. The Chinese battery giant CATL is a pioneer in the development of sodium-ion cells. The latest version, Naxtra will almost match efficiency of LFP batteries, which are replacing NCM chemistries, and do so at a much lower cost. Robin Zeng, the billionaire founder of CATL, believes that sodium-ion battery could replace?upto half of the market for LFP Batteries. The metal is chosen by lithium producers for the power grid storage batteries. This market is growing rapidly. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, global installations of battery-based energy storage systems increased by 38% in the first ten months of 2025. Ford Motors has announced a charge of $19.5 billion on EV investments. At the same time, it is committing to invest $2 billion in batteries for energy storage system. HARD WIRED The landscape of EV battery materials has changed dramatically since 2022 when the prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel were all surging, on the assumption that these three metals would be at core of electric mobility. This is no longer true. The battery chemistry continues to evolve at a breakneck pace, thanks to 'unprecedented' research and development. In 10 years, it is impossible to know what will power electric vehicles. It is certain that copper will remain essential for wiring vehicles and charging infrastructure. Aluminium is likely to remain a popular choice for body frames due to its lightweight. The ultimate winners of the EV revolution may not be the metals that directly power the car, but those who enable it. Andy Home is an author and columnist. Andy Home is a columnist. You like this column? Check out Open Interest for data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
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Doumbouya, the Guinean president, is completing his journey from coup leader.
Mamady Doumbouya, who seized power four years ago in a coup, has revamped Guinea's mineral sector and launched an enormous iron ore project. He hopes that his achievements will ensure him victory in the presidential election meant to mark a return to civil rule. Doumbouya, who had vowed 'not to contest the vote on December 28th,' is expected cement his grip over power in West Africa after key rivals have been sidelined. Doumbouya, a former commander of special forces believed to be in early 40s, gained wide support after leading the September 2021 uprising against then-President Alpha Conde who had sparked a protest by seeking a controversial three term. According to Signal Risk, unlike neighbouring Sahel countries plagued by coups, jihadist insurgencies and economic reforms, Guinea has experienced relative stability, along with new mining sector investments and economic reforms. BAUXITE AND IRON ORE Simandou is home to the largest untapped iron ore deposits and bauxite reserve in the world. A massive mining project began there in November. Guinea, under Doumbouya's leadership, has followed the lead of its neighbours Niger and Burkina Faso, who are all military-led, in trying to gain more control over their mining operations to increase state revenues. In July, his transitional government revoked the license of EGA subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation after a dispute over refinery. It transferred its assets to a State-owned firm. Western powers are faced with a dilemma. They could be pushed closer to China by denouncing the 'democratic backsliding,' said Benedict Manzin. He is a Middle East and Africa expert at Sibylline, a risk consultancy. He said that a successful transition of a coup leader into a civilian president would encourage other militaries to act in the same way. Manzin stated that "Doumbouya... seized the power and largely ignored the (West African bloc), ECOWAS, and domestic requests to quickly transition back to civil rule... (then), he secured his own elections... while the International Community largely overlooked how he came to power at all," "A Cinderella-like story for a military despot aspiring to power." PATH TO POWER Doumbouya, a Malinke ethnic from Kankan, in Guinea's eastern region, trained in Israel, Senegal and Gabon, before moving to France where he joined the French Foreign Legion. It was there that he met his wife, a French gendarme Lauriane Doumbouya. When he became president, he had 15 years' experience in the military, which included missions in Afghanistan and Central African Republic, as well as Ivory Coast and Djibouti. The decision to run for election is a complete reversal. In the original charter, junta leaders were barred from running for office. However, a referendum in September overturned that restriction. Doumbouya's campaign has focused on his achievements in infrastructure and his pledge to fight poverty and corruption. Gilles Yabi of the West African think-tank WATHI said: "The fact that the interim president is a contender...clearly demonstrates the objective to retain power." He said that "nothing will stop General Doumbouya from retaining power and the military around him." His government had proposed in 2022 a two-year transition to elections but failed to meet that deadline. Manzin stated that Doumbouya had taken measures to bolster support since then. Critics in the civil society accuse his government for limiting press freedom, preventing protests and stifling opposition activities. He also?pardoned Moussa dadis Camara, a former coup leader who was convicted for a stadium massacre in 2009 and still retains his support in the Guinee Forestiere area. Manzin stated that the Supreme Court was under pressure from Doumbouya to exclude opposition candidates. Cellou Dalein Diallo, Guinea's leading opposition figure, is in exile following a corruption trial. Conde, the former president, is also exiled and was disqualified at 85 due to a new limit on age. (Reporting and editing by Robbie Corey Boulet and Ros Russell; Guinea newsroom and Portia Crowe)
German Engineers are Building Future-Proof Forests
Forest engineers use biodiversity for future-proofing forests
Plantations of Spruce are vulnerable to pests and climate change
Long-term forest restoration is hindered by financial challenges
Joanna Gill
From the 35-metre tower, all that is visible now is a flattened plateau. The trees are gone after being wiped out by a bark beetle infestation in 2018.
Experts call this "calamity" that happened so quickly, 60-year-old oak trees fell in a matter of weeks in this forest in North Rhine-Westphalia along Germany's border to the Netherlands and Belgium.
Petra Trompeter of Arnsberg's city forestry department said, "It is shocking for me, and for every forester." She was squinting in the low winter sunlight from the base the tower.
Over many years, storms and droughts created conditions that allowed bark beetles the opportunity to consume rows upon rows of spruce.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2024 will be the first year that global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit).
Climate change disasters will increase in intensity and frequency in a warmer world. They could also threaten the ability of forests to absorb carbon and thousands of jobs in the tourism and wood sectors.
The independent Expert Council on Climate Issues in Germany warned that the country may miss its climate targets after 2030 as forests and wetlands, which were previously carbon sinks, are now becoming sources of emissions as a result of forest degradation.
Forest engineers in North Rhine-Westphalia are now working to create resilient forests by combining tree species. This is part of a European Union-funded program.
Trompeter said that even before the disaster we had been working to make the forest more diverse and structurally rich. The calamity forced us to act more quickly.
Future Forests
After World War Two, Germany planted spruce trees to harvest timber to pay reparations owed by the Allies.
The species is favored by timber producers for its rapid uniform growth.
These single-species plantations make?North Rhine-Westphalia’s forests vulnerable to heat, pests and drought.
When everything is going well, the returns are positive, but when extreme weather causes mass tree losses, these are seen as "inevitable". Monoculture plantations may also be partly responsible for Germany's forests being unable to absorb carbon.
He said that "natural forests can hold a lot more carbon."
Diversification has been identified as a possible solution and is currently being tested across Europe.
The 20 million-euro SUPERB Project, led by the European Forest Institute, and funded through the EU Green Deal, has seen forestry experts from Sweden to Spain set up twelve demonstration sites, including Arnsberg, in order to restore habitats, and transform monocultures.
The Arnsberg area is 34 hectares and includes both public and private land. Forestry experts carefully selected four conifers and broad-leaf trees they believed could adapt to altitude and climate, and withstand hotter and dryer conditions in the future.
Marcus Lindner is the head of resilience at the European Forest Institute.
While the majority of forestry experts agree that variety is important, there are differing opinions on how to achieve it.
Others prefer curated plantings of local species while others want to experiment with nonnative trees.
Trompeter explained that this is not possible because nature protection laws in North Rhine-Westphalia only allow for local species. "And there we reached our limit."
Banning on Biodiversity
According to the German Agriculture Ministry, trees?play a critical role in the economic system, providing 76 million cubic meters of timber each year, 750,000 employment opportunities in forestry and wood, as well as boosting the rural economy through eco-tourism.
Rouven Soyka is the press officer of the Sauerland Tourism Board. The Sauerland region in?North Rhine-Westphalia has a hilly terrain that's a popular hiking destination. However, the massive dieback caused the area to be unrecognisable to some visitors.
Nature tourism is affected by all means. It's very important that nature is preserved in our classic outdoor region.
Many forest owners cannot afford to reforest without state subsidies that do not cover the entire cost.
Peter Jungermann says that he must think twice about investing in high-maintenance broad leaf varieties, rather than market-friendly conifers. This is especially true given the financial pressures on forest owners.
It can be a "existential threat" to the nursery if he makes the wrong decision about which tree he should plant.
The shifting political winds can also complicate planning for the future.
Due to the backlash of businesses and farmers, key laws that were meant to be part the EU's Green Deal have been watered-down in the last year.
It is still unclear how much money the EU budget for 2028-2034, which amounts to 2 trillion euros (2.35 trillion dollars), will allocate to forest restoration. Negotiations are expected to take place over the next two-year period.
The German budget for 2026 prioritizes defence and infrastructure as the government tries to revive a sluggish economic.
Trompeter said that forests are essential to human life and the health of the planet. "Where else can we spend it than on preserving nature and making it climate resilient?"
(source: Reuters)