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Market analysts react to US-Israeli strikes on Iran
United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Sunday, targeting its leaders and plunging Middle East into?a new conflict. President Donald Trump claimed that this would end a threat to security?and give Iranians the chance to overthrow their rulers. As fears of an escalation increased, the strikes put nearby oil producing Gulf Arab countries on edge. Tehran then responded by firing missiles at Israel. Four trading sources reported on Saturday that some?oil?majors, and top trading firms, suspended crude oil and gasoline shipments via Strait of Hormuz due to the attacks. QUOTES: VISHNU VARATHAN HEAD OF MACRO RESEARCH, ASIA EX JAPAN, MIZUHO SINGAPORE Iran warned that a broader state in which there are more spots of regional instability and attacks may be the norm. As long as the production and transportation of oil are subject to disruptions and attacks, oil prices will likely remain high. OPEC could be forced to increase production in order to offset. A 10-25% increase in oil prices is not outrageous - "even without the Straits of Hormuz blockade, which would be a 50% risk event." CHRISTOPHER WOONG, SINGAPORE, OCBC STRATEGIST: The strike has increased geopolitical risk premia for Monday's opening. It is easy to predict the immediate reaction: gold and other safe-havens will likely see a gap on the upside, while oil prices may also rise due to supply disruption concerns. Risk assets and high beta currencies may face an initial bout volatility, especially if headlines indicate potential retaliation. NICK FERRES, CIO, VANTAGE POINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE: Energy is still cheap. It's obvious that this sector is the one that has rallied on Monday. "And gold." SAUL KAVONIC MST MARQUEE, SYDNEY, ENERGY ASSESSOR: Early indications point to a larger scale attack against Iran with counterattacks that could escalate and draw in multiple Gulf countries. It is not impossible that the Iranian regime, if they feel threatened by an existential threat to their regime, will try and block the Strait. US and allies have military escort plans in place to protect the Strait. If Iran was to successfully disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, it could affect over 20% global LNG and oil flows. This would be a situation three times as severe as the Arab oil embargo of 1970 and the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Oil prices could reach triple digits while LNG prices may retest their record highs from 2022. The scope of intentional or unintentional escalation is wide and difficult to predict in such circumstances. Initial oil market reactions are likely to price in a higher risk of different scenarios that could disrupt supply. This can range from a modest disruption of 2mmbbld of Iranian oil exports to an attack on regional oil infrastructure to a disruption of the Strait of Hormuz passage in the most extreme scenario. The oil price could rise by several dollars if the conflict intensifies. It is unlikely that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for a long period of time. Even a partial disruption in oil flows could result in several million barrels of oil per day being disrupted, as tankers avoid the area. This would still push oil prices over $100.
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Berlin places Rosneft Units under trusteeship to control German Assets
Berlin is seeking to establish a long-term control of the German assets owned by the Russian oil company. The German government placed the German units of Rosneft under a trusteeship. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the German government was given a?trusteeship over the assets. This trusteeship must be renewed every six-months to maintain energy security. However, this creates a lot of uncertainty, especially with the PCK Schwedt Refinery that'supplies' most of Berlin's fuel. The latest move is an attempt to find a solution structural. It places Rosneft Germany (RDG), and RN Refining & Marketing, (RNRM), under the control Germany's Bundesnetzagentur, a German energy regulator. The regulator will take over control of the PCK Schwedt refinery, the?MiRO Karlsruhe refinery and the Bayernoil refining plants. The European Commission approved the new trusteeship system earlier this month. Rosneft Germany is one of Germany's largest oil refineries, with a capacity of 13%. In a press release, the ministry stated that "ensuring security of supply is the primary objective" for all actions taken by the German government towards Rosneft Germany. (Reporting and editing by Madeline Chambers)
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The impact of tensions between the US and Iran on world markets
On Saturday, the United States and Israel attacked Iran's leadership. President Donald Trump claimed that this would eliminate a security risk and give Iranians an opportunity to overthrow their rulers. As fears of an escalation increased, the?strikes placed nearby oil-producing Gulf Arab nations on edge. Tehran responded by firing missiles at Israel. Here's a look at how the conflict could affect world markets. OIL SPIKE Oil is the main barometer for Middle East tension. Iran is one of the world's major oil producers and lies across the Strait of Hormuz from the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula, where about 20% of the global oil supply travels. Conflicts could restrict oil from entering the world market and drive up prices. Brent crude traded at around $73 per barrel on Friday, up a fifth so far this year. Four trading sources reported on Saturday that some oil majors, as well as top trading houses, had suspended crude oil and other fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the attacks. William Jackson, Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Capital Economics said that Brent could rise to around $80, the price during the 12-day conflict in Iran last June. He said that a prolonged conflict could affect supply and cause oil prices around $100. This would add 0.6-0.7 percentage point to global inflation. WILD SWINGS EVERYWHERE The conflict will likely?exacerbate volatility on global markets. These have already been wildly volatile this year due to Trump's trade tariffs and sharp tech sales. The VIX volatility indicator has increased by a third in the past year and implied U.S. Bond volatility is up about 15%. Analysts say that currency markets will not be immune to volatility. CBA reports that the dollar index dropped by about 1% in June. This fall, however, was only temporary and reversed after three to four days. CBA analysts wrote in a recent note that the size of the fall will depend on the length and the extent of the conflict. If the conflict lasted for a long time and disrupted the oil supply, we expect the U.S. Dollar to rise against the majority of currencies except the Japanese yen or Swiss franc. The U.S. benefits from higher gas and oil prices if the oil supply is disrupted. Iran retaliated quickly against Israel on Sunday. It fell 5% when the war began in June 2024. Also, it dropped after Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus and when Iran fired missiles on Israel that October. All episodes were brief and quickly followed by a shekel rebound. JPMorgan stated that it may be different if the conflict or a rise in risk premia proves to be more persistent. The Wall Street bank stated that "this would be especially the case if a confrontation with Iran also triggers more intensive operations" against Iran's proxy forces. SAFE-HAVENS DO WHAT THEY DO Swiss National Bank is likely to be under pressure as the Swiss Franc, which is widely seen as a safe-haven currency in turbulent times, continues to rise. The Swiss franc is up by 3% against the U.S. dollar this year. Investors may also want to make a second rush for gold. It has been on an incredible run, with a 22% increase so far this year. They could also look at silver, which is also on a good run. The conflict could also increase demand for U.S. Treasuries, whose yields had been declining in recent weeks. Bitcoin is no longer regarded as a safe haven. It dropped 2% on Sunday and has lost more than a quarter in value over the past two months. WATCH MIDDLE-EAST MARKETS The trading in Middle East bourses on Sunday will be a first 'indicator' of investor sentiment. This includes Saudi Arabia and Qatar. These markets are closely linked to oil prices. However, an escalating war could have a ripple effect on the economies. Ryan Lemand is the chief executive and co-founder at Neovision Wealth Management. He said, "I think markets will be lower if hostilities continue throughout the day." Depending on how bad the conflict is, Gulf?equities may drop as much as 3-5%. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index fell 1.3% over five days through Thursday. This is the second week in a row that it has declined. Dubai's main stock market, which will reopen on Monday, has fallen in the past two weeks. STOCKS FOR AIRLINES & DEFENCE Global airlines cancelled flights in the Middle East Saturday. Their stocks may be affected if the conflict continues and more airspace is closed. The demand for European weapons could increase by 10% in the coming year.
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NZZ reports that UBS intends to keep Ermotti as CEO for a longer period of time
Neue Zuercher Zeitung, a Swiss newspaper, reported that the board of directors at Swiss banking giant UBS intends to keep Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti for a longer period than originally planned. Ermotti is set to leave his position by 2027. However, the timeline has not been finalised. The NZZ, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that the board, led by chairman Colm Kelleher wants Ermotti to stay on beyond this date in order to guide the?UBS pushback against the Swiss Government's plans to tighten regulation. When asked about the NZZ Report, a UBS spokesperson stated that it was "premature" to speculate on the timing of Sergio's departure. The spokesperson said that "when the time comes to choose a successor, the Board can draw from a strong pool of internal candidates but will also fulfill its fiduciary duties by evaluating external candidates." MEASURES TO PREVENT FISCAL CRISES The Swiss government announced in June that it would take measures to prevent future banking crises after the collapse of Credit Suisse 2023. Plans could force UBS to have up to $24 billion of additional capital. UBS cannot count its software or deferred taxes towards its Common Equity Tier 1 capital. Its foreign units are also required to be fully backed by CET1 Capital. UBS rejected the proposals claiming that they would make Switzerland less competitive. NZZ stated that the bank is evaluating 'different possible outcomes' of this discussion and it could determine whether or not the bank stays in Switzerland?or moves abroad? "We will?do?everything possible to ensure that UBS continues to be a successful global bank in Switzerland. The spokesperson stated that the Board of Directors must prepare for every scenario. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Francois Murphy)
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El Mencho's cartel still has power in the US after his death
El Mencho, a Mexican drug kingpin who was killed by the Mexican government is hailed as a major victory against?drug trafficking. It did not do much to stop the cartel's operations in the United States, however, and they will continue to be a major factor in its dominance until Washington takes action on its own soil, according U.S. In a raid backed by the United States, Mexican special forces killed the elusive drug-lord Nemesio seguera on February 22. This was the largest cartel leader taken down in at least 10 years. El Mencho’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel retaliated by destroying buildings and blocking roads in Mexico, a frightening display of its territorial reach which grabbed headlines around the world. The cartel has extensive networks on the U.S.-Mexico border that are not as well known but which are vital to its power and profits. These networks allow it to "source military-grade weaponry, smuggle billions in fuel and launder billions in cartel money." Alamdar Hamdani said that the United States is increasingly important for cartels to flourish, including the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson, said that the Trump Administration "has worked closely" with the Mexican Government to "stop the scourge" of drugs and criminals coming into the United States. This cooperation has led to "the elimination of the infamous narcoterrorist "El Mencho." She added that "the president will do everything he can to keep America safe against these vicious criminals, and the drugs which they use to poison America." MEXICANS CALLS FOR U.S. TAKE MORE ACTION IN THEIR HOMELAND Washington put pressure on Mexico to intensify the fight against cartels ahead of the raid that will take place against the drug lord who was once untouchable. These actions can be risky for Mexico's government, as they could spark a violent wave in a nation where the drug conflict has already claimed tens thousands of lives. Claudia Sheinbaum, the Mexican president, has escalated her crackdown and renewed calls have been made for the U.S. government to do more at its border. Sheinbaum's close ally, Alfonso Ramirez Cuellar of the Mexican Congress said: "The United States cannot turn a deaf ear to Mexico's requests any longer." He said that the U.S. must improve its efforts to combat money laundering, fuel theft, and above all weapons smuggled into Mexico from the U.S. He said: "We cannot stop drug traffickers as long as the United States allows them to continue strengthening their military capabilities." In recent years, the U.S. has built and prosecuted hundreds cases related to cartel activity in the U.S. The Trump administration diverted thousands agents last year, including those who specialize in money laundering, guns, and drugs, from these cases to focus on mass deportations. In September, it was reported that the number people charged with money laundering and drug conspiracies had dropped significantly. Vanda Felbab Brown, a security specialist, said that the Trump administration had focused primarily on militarized action?against drug trafficking abroad and hadn't paid as much attention to actions here at home. According to a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Justice, the administration is "acutely focused" on securing border, prosecuting violent drug traffickers, and deporting all members of cartel network. The department also cited a number of recent cases, which included high-ranking Jalisco cartel members. The office of Mexico’s president did not respond to comments. Roberto Velasco is the Undersecretary of the Foreign Ministry for North America. He said that the Mexican government had repeatedly stressed in bilateral meetings and work groups, that the Mexican government's top priority was to stop the arms trade. He said that while there had been significant progress in controlling this flow, more could be done. "We believe that much more can still be done, to control it and to target networks?in the United States, which facilitate it. This empowers transnational criminal groups," he added. After El Mencho was killed, we spoke with a dozen current and former U.S. officials and Mexican officials. We also reviewed court documents in 10 recent U.S. cases relating to the cartel. This gave us a better understanding of its U.S. operation. The report revealed that the activities of the cartel in the United States are crucial to its firepower and profits, and will not be affected by the death of the leader. Reporting also revealed that U.S. professionals and companies - including fuel traders, cell phone retailers and stockbrokers -- are complicit with cartel activity. Former Mexican diplomat Alexia Bautista said, "There is a lot of integration in the economy - legal and illegal." CARTELS FIGHT THE MEXICAN MILITARY WITH U.S. CARTELS FIGHT THE MEXICAN MILITARY WITH U.S. He added that 80% of the 2,300 weapons the Mexican Government has seized in the last two years since Sheinbaum assumed office at the end of 2024 were from the U.S. According to U.S. authorities and Mexican officials, the Jalisco cartel has become an expert at sourcing heavy military artillery in U.S. gun stores across the nation. According to an investigation, through one of its gun-running network, the cartel acquired guns from more than a 12 states in the U.S., including.50 calibre rifles that can down helicopters and FN SCAR?rifles for U.S. Special Forces. Although such weapons can be bought legally in the U.S. they become illegal when they enter Mexico due to its strict gun laws. Why do we dismiss the argument of the Mexicans that we can do better in tackling the gun traffic southbound? Derek Maltz is a former acting administrator of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. He said that the U.S. must step up its efforts in many areas, including public health programs and mental illness programs. The Jalisco cartel has the power to smuggle fuel. The cartels have long been fueled by the insatiable American demand for drugs. While drugs have been the main source of income for the cartels, they've quietly built up a cross-border oil empire worth billions in just a few years. As reported in October, the Jalisco cartel dominates this business. It would not have been possible to expand it without a network that included refiners and fuel traders as well as transport companies, storage facilities and companies involved with transportation. Guadalupe Correa is a professor from George Mason University, who has studied the ways cartels can diversify their sources of income. It's a massive, global business. According to U.S. authorities and Mexican authorities, the cartel orchestrates a two-version scheme. Members of cartels in Mexico steal crude oil from Pemex, which is then smuggled over the border and sold to U.S. firms. Shell companies are used by cartel members to purchase diesel and gasoline mainly from U.S. firms. Fuel is disguised in Mexico as other products, and this amounts to a lucrative tax fraud. Sheinbaum confirmed in the past that U.S. businesses were involved with fuel smuggling. Sheinbaum said that it was impossible to explain how fuel from the U.S. enters Mexico illegally. HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS IN CARTEL-RELATED ASSETS IN U.S. El Mencho’s son-in law Cristian Gutierrez was arrested late in 2024 in a $1.2 Million house in Riverside, California. According to court records, Gutierrez who pled to a conspiracy to launder money internationally in June 2025 said that he purchased the five-bedroom house using drug proceeds channeled through an espionage shell company set up to look like it was a tequila manufacturer. The Jalisco cartel uses real estate as one of many ways to clean its cash in the U.S. Carlos Olivo is a former DEA Agent who specialized on tracing cartels'?U.S. financial networks. financial networks. He said that the money of the cartel flows through the textile industry, music, agriculture, restaurants, and the U.S. Stock Market. He said that the United States had cartel money worth hundreds of millions. A DEA spokesperson responded to questions regarding this story by saying that the cartels used a variety of money-laundering schemes. They "also use trade based money-laundering schemes, cryptocurrency and bulk cash to fund their operation." Former Mexican diplomat Alejandro Celorio said that he hoped Sheinbaum's choice to pursue the cartel leader who was the most powerful in the country, would inspire the U.S. - to redouble their efforts within its borders. Celorio stated that the U.S., as the world's largest commercial and military power could investigate more deeply the movement of money and drugs within U.S. soil. Reporting by Laura Gottesdiener, in Monterrey; Stefanie Eschenbacher, in Mexico City; and Sarah Kinosian, in Miami; Additional reporting by Emily Green, in Mexico City. Editing by Claudia Parsons.
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President Dominican Republic says Dominican Republic has more than 150 million tonnes of rare earth deposits
President?Luis Abinader announced on Friday that the Dominican Republic had identified a?rare-earth deposit which could make it a major future'supplier of minerals essential to high-tech industries. According to a government announcement, preliminary studies show that gross deposits of rare earth elements exceed 150 million tons. These metals can be used for semiconductors, aerospace and military equipment. Abinader, in his State of the Nation Address to Congress this year, set out to finish assessing mineral reserves and certify reserves before early next year. This is a step necessary for large-scale mining and refining. Uncertainty surrounds how much of the 150,000,000 tons would be commercially viable. The president said that the development of these deposits was part of a wider strategy of energy transformation, and responsible use of natural resources, which would strengthen Dominican sovereignty and reduce external dependency, as well as cut emissions and increase competitiveness. The United States has shown a strong interest in the Dominican deposit located in 'the border province of Pedernales. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio stated in February of last year that the world would need to access such resources in order to develop key technologies for this century. He also stressed that the rare earths "belong" to the Dominican Republic and its people, while offering U.S. assistance as a partner to their development. Reporting by Paul Mathiasen, Santo Domingo Editing Rod Nickel
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Barclays predicts Brent could hit $80 per barrel due to tensions between the US and Iran
Barclays stated that Brent crude oil could reach around $80 per barrel in the event a material supply disruption occurs, given that tensions between Iran and the U.S. remain high. The bank stated that "while it is possible that an 'escalation' does not result in a disruption in supply and the risk premium of $3-5/b in oil prices quickly fades, a 1mb/d outage in supply would question the widely anticipated supply glut, and push Brent to $80/b in our opinion." Prices of oil rose by?about 2 percent on Friday as traders prepared for supply disruptions due to the ongoing nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. Brent settled at $72.48 per barrel. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, expressed his disappointment on Friday over the U.S. nuclear negotiations with Iran. He warned that "sometimes force is necessary" amid the massive military presence that could lead to strikes against the Islamic Republic. Barclays stated in a report that "the pushback against our view that geopolitical tensions continue to pose an asymmetrical upside risk for oil price is primarily based on recent history which argues in favor fading the risk premia around 'these events. Barclays also said that oil prices may fall by up to $5 per barrel if there is no disruption in the supply of material and Iran does not respond to the U.S. strikes with the same fervor. The report also warned that the market was structurally tightening due to low and decreasing spare capacity, tight inventory and strong demand.
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Oil prices rise as stocks fall when investors take a breather from AI
Oil prices rose on Friday as a result of the possibility of supply disruptions caused by tensions between Iran and the U.S. Investors are more concerned about the impact of AI in general on technology companies even though Nvidia, a chip maker that makes AI chips, reported better than expected results. Nvidia shares, the most valuable company in the world, fell 3.5% on Monday, continuing the previous session's losses. Wall Street fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 1.33%, and the Nasdaq composite off by 1.2%. We're at a stage in the market cycle when not only the market, but also that industry group (semiconductors) that has risen more than 100 percent in one year have priced in many good news. Now it's time to take a break," said Talley Lger, chief strategist at The Wealth Consulting Group. Semiconductor stock prices fell 1.9%. Leger stated, "I love semiconductors." As a group, I've achieved my return targets so at this point, I have protected and locked in the gains made by these stocks since April's lows. MSCI's All Country World Index fell 0.45%, but was still on course for a gain of?0.15% for the week. It is also expected to rise by nearly 1% in February. The STOXX Europe 600 index rose by 0.1%. U.S. - Iran Talks Continue The markets were also closely watching the progress of U.S.-Iran nuke talks as Washington gathered more military resources in Middle East. A mediator from Omani gave a positive summary of the latest talks, but it was clear that there had been no breakthroughs in recent negotiations. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Friday that he is still not happy with Iran and threatened to use force if needed to reach an accord. After consultations in the capitals of both countries, U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Sayyid Bahr Albusaidi announced in a X post after?the meetings held in Switzerland that they plan to resume their negotiations. U.S. crude oil rose 2.6%, to $66.33 a barrel. Brent was up 2.6% at $72.58 a barrel. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 5.7 basis points, to 3.96%. The yield on the 2-year note fell by 6.7 basis points, to 3.381%. In Europe, yields on benchmark German 10-year 'Bunds' fell by 1.1 basis points at 2.643%. STARMER FALTERS The sterling was down by 0.07% to $1.34473, after the Labour Party of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer lost an election in Greater Manchester where it had ruled for nearly a century. Data from Japan showed a cooling of inflation in Tokyo, and a weaker than expected?factory production. This made it difficult for the central bank to increase policy rates. The dollar rose by 0.1%, to?156.96 yen. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of other currencies) was down by 0.12%, at 97.61. The dollar rose by 0.18%, to $1.1818. Spot gold increased 1.2% to $5249.28 per ounce. Spot silver increased 5.57% to $83.25 an ounce.
Germany, France and UK warn Iran against attacks in the region
Germany, France, and Britain have condemned the 'Iranian' attacks on countries of?the?region on Saturday. They said that?Iran should halt its indiscriminate strikes and return to negotiations.
In a joint press release, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that they "condemn Iranian attacks against countries in the area in the strongest possible terms."
"We urge the Iranian leadership to seek a negotiated resolution and call for a return to negotiations. "The Iranian people must be allowed to decide their own future", they stated.
Leaders said that they have consistently called on Iran to stop its nuclear program, curtail its ballistic missile?program, cease its destabilizing activities in the region, and cease its appalling violence?and repression?against its own people.
They added that their countries did not take part in the strikes on Saturday and said they were in contact with international partners including the U.S.A., Israel and other partners in 'the region.
They added: "We reiterate our commitment to regional stability and the protection of civilian lives." (Reporting and editing by Madeline Chambers)
(source: Reuters)