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Russell: China's steel production will slump to a 7-year-low as iron ore exports reach record levels.

Russell: China's steel production will slump to a 7-year-low as iron ore exports reach record levels.
Russell: China's steel production will slump to a 7-year-low as iron ore exports reach record levels.

China's steel output in November was its weakest in almost two years, and it will ensure that the world's largest producer of metal will post the lowest annual production since 2018.

Imports of iron ore, steel's key raw material, are expected to reach a new record in 2025. This will surpass the previous all-time high of 1,24 billion metric tonnes set in 2024.

Iron ore stocks were restocked amid low seaborne prices, and there was optimism that Beijing’s stimulus measures would eventually increase steel demand.

While the iron ore sector may be experiencing a positive sentiment, it is still facing the reality of a weakening demand for steel in the important property construction sector as well as in manufacturing.

According to data released by the Chinese government on December 15, China's steel output fell to 69.87 millions tons in November. This is a?10.9% drop from the same period a year ago.

It was the sixth consecutive month of declines and the lowest output since December 2023.

The steel production for the first 11 month of this year was 891.67 millions tons, a 4% decrease from the same period in 2024.

If the December steel production is at the same level as November's, then total 2025 production will be around 964 million tonnes.

This would be the lowest production since 2018, when 928.3 millions tons were produced. It would also represent a drop of approximately 4% from 1.005 billion tonnes in 2024.

Steel prices are largely reflecting the weakening of production. On Tuesday, Shanghai Exchange rebar contract ended at $3,081 ($437) a ton. This is down 10.1% from the previous close of $3.429 on July 30 when the current downward trend began.

IRON STRENGTH

The price of iron ore has taken a different path. Singapore Exchange contracts have been rising since July 1, when they hit a low of $93.35 per ton, a 10-month-low.

The price of a ton closed at $106.25 on Tuesday. This is a slight drop from the previous high close for this year, which was $107.90 in December.

Prices have risen in tandem with the strength of imports during the second half. November arrivals were 110.54 millions tons, an 8.5% increase from a year ago.

Iron ore imports for the first 11 months were up by 1.4%, to 1,139 billion tons. This means that they need to surpass 98 million tonnes in December to beat the record of 1.237 billion tons set in 2024.

The analysts at Kpler estimate that China's iron ore imports in December will be around 121,000,000 tons.

How long will iron ore imports outperform steel production?

It depends on the amount of inventory that Chinese steel mills are willing to increase. They have seen their stockpiles rise in recent weeks.

SteelHome monitors stockpiles in Chinese ports The week ending December 12 saw a rise to 143.8 millions tons, up from 142.4 million in the previous week.

The price of corn has risen by 10.5% since the 18-month-low of 130.1 millions tons in early august, and is now approaching the 27-month high of 151.8 from July last year.

Iron ore imports are likely to be reduced in the next few months, as inventories have a limited capacity for growth.

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These are the views of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)