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IMF expects Panama's GDP to grow 4.5% in 2019 as a result of the copper mine closure
The International Monetary Fund executive board stated on Monday that Panama's economy will grow this year, as the effects of the closure of First Quantum Minerals Cobre Panama Copper Mine in late 2023 fade and the non-mining sector continues to grow. Why it is important Panama's economy has recovered after the Cobre Panama Mine, the largest open-pit copper deposit in the world, was closed down in 2023 due to protests by local residents about tax contributions and environmental impact. By the Numbers IMF predicts that Panama's economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, and continue to grow at 4% per year through 2030. Comparing the economy of Central American countries The growth rate is expected to be 2.9% by 2024. KEY QUOTES The IMF stated in a press release that "the economy is recovering" from the effects of the Cobre Panama mine closing. The report said that the economy of the country "is expected continue to recover, but there are significant downside risks as well as a high level of uncertainty." IMF said that a plan to reduce spending approved by the Cabinet, if implemented fully, could help the government reach its fiscal goal of 2025. CONTEXT First Quantum and Panama both suffered financial losses due to the closure of Cobre Panama. The company had contributed 1% of global copper production. Panama, which was one of the fastest-growing economies worldwide in the past decade, experienced a slowdown in its gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024, compared to the 7.4% increase in the year before, due to the closure of the copper mine and the decline in air transport. Reporting by Diego Ore and Natalia Siniawski; Editing by Daina-Beth Solomon, Aida-Pelaez Fernandez, and Chris Reese
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Zimbabwe brings back maize import ban after bumper harvest
A senior official in the agriculture ministry said that Zimbabwe had brought back its ban on maize exports to support local farmers. The country has also grown enough this year to provide its millers with a bumper crop, the official added. The improved rainfall has increased production and reversed the sharp decline that occurred last year, when El Nino caused a drought in Zimbabwe which forced it to import maize, including GM varieties. "We evaluate the situation daily. Obert Jiri is the Permanent Secretary of Agriculture at the Ministry of Agriculture. Zimbabwe's maize consumption, which is around 1.8 million tons per year, fell to 800,000 tons in 2023/24, from 2.3 millions metric tonnes two years before. The crisis led the government of southern Africa to temporarily lift import restrictions in order to alleviate food shortages. Jiri stated that the recovery this year, coupled with the state's support programmes, such as the Pfumvudza Smallholder Scheme, has left the nation with enough stock. Independent analyst Paul Chidziva warned Zimbabwe's agriculture sector, which employs 70% of the country's population, remains vulnerable to extreme weather events and droughts exacerbated by climate changes. The government promotes drought-tolerant plants such as millet and sorghum. Jiri stated that the current surplus presents a rare chance to strengthen food security and reduce dependence on imports. Zimbabwe spent $300,000,000 in hard currency to import maize in 2020, as droughts had left over half of the population hungry. (Editing by Sfundo Parakozov & Andrew Heavens).
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Business community worried about Trump's desire to make more deals similar to Intel
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Monday that he wanted to invest more in U.S. businesses. It is unclear if Corporate America will be on board. The White House announced on Friday a nearly 10% stake in Intel, which converts government grants to equity shares. Trump reiterated his commitment to other deals similar to Intel's announcement on Monday. The approach of the administration is a departure from decades of thinking in the U.S. about the economy. In the past, the government had taken corporate stakes during rare emergencies such as the global financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent bailouts of U.S. automobile companies. Intel may be struggling, but the company still has $9 billion in cash and a $105 billion market value. Critics say that the Intel move, along with the White House’s full-court pressure to get the U.S. Federal Reserve lower interest rates, and its use of emergency power to slap import tariffs, as well as involvement in various mergers, threatens the nimbleness of the business world. "We are moving away from a capitalistic economy and towards a more state-engaged one. This is a major change in America's economy. Bill George, former Medtronic chief executive officer and fellow in executive education at Harvard Business School said: "I've never experienced an era quite like this." Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Monday that he would "make deals like that all day for our Country," praising the rising stock price of the company. Trump stated in his post that companies who make "lucrative deals" with U.S. state would be helped, but did not provide any details. Intel had pledged to use CHIPS Act funds to build plants in America. Intel's regulatory filing from Monday makes the risks of government involvement more evident. Intel outlined several new risks associated with government investment in the company, including the potential harm to international sales and the limitations on the chipmaker's future ability to receive government grants. Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan took it a step farther in a video released on Monday by Commerce Department. He said, "I do not need the grant." He said: "But I am really looking forward to the U.S. Government becoming my shareholder." Analysts have also raised concerns about the impact of Intel's deal on customers. Is it possible that the administration could 'encourage,' Intel customers to use its capacity? In a note published on Tuesday, Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon outlined her thoughts. Intel isn't the only company in which Trump has personally invested. The White House intervened in June to ensure that Nippon Steel, a Japanese company, completed the purchase of U.S. Steel. Trump described this as a "golden stake" which gives Washington control over its operations. The White House also took a stake MP Materials, a rare earths company, and, on Monday, White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett stated that the government may take further stakes in companies. Nell Minow is the chairperson of ValueEdge Advisors, a Portland, Maine-based firm. The White House claims that it is better to increase the production of critical industries in the United States than to outsource manufacturing to other countries. Trump received a number of CEOs shortly after his November 2024 re-election, and this parade of visitors continues into his current term. Apple CEO Tim Cook gave Trump a souvenir plaque that was customized with 24-karat Utah gold earlier this month. Apple, one of the largest companies in the World with a Market Value of over $3 Trillion, has tried to move production from China to India. Trump also criticised this decision. Apple announced a $600 billion investment plan in the United States. The White House suggested that Apple could also manufacture smartphones in the United States. The United States has a limited capacity for manufacturing smartphones. George said, "I think that companies are starting to understand how much control and ownership they want to surrender to the government." George said. David Gaffen, New York (Writing and reporting by David Gaffen; editing by Chizu Nomiyama & Mark Porter; Reporting by Susan Heavey and Ryan Patrick Jones from Washington; Reporting by David Gaffen and Ryan Patrick Jones from Toronto; and David Gaffen and David Gaffen both in New York)
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As markets wait for clues about Fed policy, gold ticks lower
The gold price eased Monday as investors locked up profits. A stronger dollar also added to the pressure. Meanwhile, the market is now looking at the upcoming U.S. PCE statistics for clues about the Fed's future policy. As of 0957 am, spot gold was down by 0.1% to $3,370.14 an ounce. After reaching its highest level in August since Friday, ET (13.57 GMT) has seen gold prices fall 0.1%. U.S. Gold futures for delivery in December also dropped 0.1% to $3.414.90. The dollar is now 0.2% more expensive than rival fiat currencies. This means that foreign buyers will pay more for bullion in this currency. Peter Grant, senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals, said, "The market has absorbed Powell's Friday comments and may be taking a small profit as we wait for fresh inputs which might give us a better indication about the likelihood of September rate cuts." The gold price rose to a two-week high after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible rate cut during the U.S. Central Bank's next month meeting. Powell stated that the risks of the job market are increasing, but inflation remains a concern and that a decision has yet to be made. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the markets expect a rate cut of 25 basis points at the Fed policy meeting in September. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose following a sharp drop on Friday, after Powell's address. US/ Gold that does not yield is more attractive in an environment with low interest rates. Investors await U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures data due on Friday for further clues about the future path of the central bank. Personal Consumption Expenditures data, due on Friday. Silver spot was down 0.2% to $38.74 an ounce after a Friday peak of nearly one month. "I believe $40 and beyond is definitely in play." Grant stated that the fundamentals of silver are very good and the market is still in a deficit. Palladium fell 2.1% to $1102.79 and platinum dropped 1.1% to $1346.90. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis)
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Hassett, White House's Hassett, says US could buy stakes in other chips companies
Kevin Hassett, White House economist and CNBC interviewee on Monday, said that the federal government could invest in other U.S. companies involved in semiconductors or even other industries. Hassett asked if this deal with Intel was part of a bigger effort by the U.S. Government to acquire equity stakes in industries it supports. He also said that there may be other transactions similar. The National Economic Council Director told CNBC, "I believe this is a special circumstance due to the huge amount of CHIPS Act expenditures that Intel was receiving." "But, the president made it very clear from the beginning of the campaign that it would be wonderful if, at the end, the U.S. was able to start building up a sovereign fund. Hassett added: "I'm certain that there will be more transactions at some point, if they are not in the industry but in other sectors." Intel's investment is the latest in a series of unusual deals with U.S. firms that have alarmed critics who claim Trump's actions are creating new categories of risk for corporations. Under Trump, the U.S. has allowed AI chip maker Nvidia's H20 chips to be sold to China. It also allowed the Pentagon become the largest shareholder of mining company MP Materials, and it acquired a "golden stake" with certain rights of veto as part of Japan Nippon Steel's purchase of U.S. Steel. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra, Louise Heavens and Susan Heavey)
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India warns Pakistan about potential flooding as both countries battle torrential rainfall
Pakistani officials and New Delhi source said that India had shared with Pakistan a warning about possible cross-border floods, amid deadly flooding and monsoon rains. Information sharing has been a shock to New Delhi because it put an old treaty between Islamabad and New Delhi on the table. Water access In April, the case was placed in "abeyance" after a fatal accident had been linked to it attack On Hindu tourists in Indian Kashmir, Pakistan. Islamabad denies any involvement. Tensions ? In May, the two nuclear-armed rivals engaged in the most violent military conflict in decades. The Indian source stated that the Indian high commission in Islamabad issued the warning to Pakistan's Foreign Ministry on Sunday on "humanitarian" grounds and not in accordance with the 1960 Indus water treaty. This was in response to heavy rains in Jammu and Kashmir, which borders Pakistan. Citing government regulations, the source declined to provide a name. The Indian foreign ministry has not responded to a comment request. The Pakistani foreign ministry stated that the warning was sent through diplomatic channels, "rather than the Indus water commission as required by the Indus waters treaty". The floods of this month are a major concern India's northern region of Jammu & Kashmir At least 60 people have been killed and more than 400 others injured in the northwest Pakistan. The National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan said that 799 people have died in floods in Pakistan since monsoon began in late June. It warned that more heavy rains are expected until September 10. Mazhar Hussain is a disaster management officer in the Pakistani Province of Punjab. He said that the Indian government had shared information about a potential surge in the Tawi River, which turns into the Sutlej after crossing the border. Hussain stated that the report did not indicate the level of flooding but warned about the high floods in the river. The dams in India have been filled by heavy rains from Pakistan, and this will force India to release more water. The heavy rains in Pakistan combined with the water released by India will cause floods along Sutlej Ravi and Chenab rivers in Punjab. WATER SUPPLY According to the 1960 treaty three rivers flowing westward from India were given to Pakistan, and three east-flowing rivers to India. Pakistan is worried that India will choke off its main water source, which could put at risk its hydro-power and agriculture. In a statement issued on Monday, the Pakistani foreign ministry urged India to adhere to all of the Indus Treaty's provisions. "India's unilateral decision to put the Treaty on hold could have serious negative consequences for peace, stability and security in South Asia." Reporting by Krishna N. Das, Islamabad; Mubasher Bukhari, Lahore. Editing by YP. Rajesh & Gareth Jones
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Luxcara, a German company, may cancel the Chinese turbine contract for a North Sea wind farm
Luxcara, a German company, said Monday that it could switch to Siemens Gamesa wind turbines for the 300 megawatt Waterkant Wind Farm. This would mean scrapping an agreement with a Chinese firm which had attracted political scrutiny and criticism by European turbine manufacturers. Luxcara, an asset manager based in Hamburg, has reserved 19 Siemens Gamesa wind turbines. Siemens Gamesa is a subsidiary owned by Siemens Energy of Germany. The same type was already purchased for the 1.5-gigawatt Waterekke Project, the largest offshore wind project ever undertaken in the German North Sea. The turbines would be replacing the ones that Ming Yang Smart Energy, a Chinese company, was to manufacture for the project as part of a deal announced in the past year. Luxcara announced that it would consider the change in order to achieve economic efficiency through bundling of procurement processes and contracts. It will also conduct joint installation campaigns, and coordinate operations for both projects. Holger Matthiesen said that this would enable the two project companies to coordinate their development, construction and operations even closer. Waterkant is expected to generate power for 400,000 homes by 2028. It will be connected to the grid in the German North Sea. The former German economy minister was very critical of the deal, as were the wind turbine manufacturers in Europe. They said that it would allow China to access vital infrastructure. Ming Yang was a result of a review by the European Commission, last year, into possible market distortions caused by Chinese wind-turbine makers in five European Union member countries. China branded this move "discriminatory". Luxcara stated that it informed relevant authorities and partners of the project about the potential switch in turbine suppliers. It did not specify whether political and regulatory scrutiny had played a part in the decision. Siemens Gamesa and Ming Yang Smart Energy, as well as the German Economy Ministry, did not respond immediately to comments. Reporting by Riham alkousaa, Editing by Helen Popper
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The Fed's pivotal fervor has cooled the global stock market
The excitement over a possible U.S. rate cut in September waned on Monday. U.S. stock futures fell during pre-market trade as investors focused on the larger economic picture. As of 1258 BST, the S&P 500 was down 0.2% and Nasdaq Futures were down 0.3%. This indicates a lower Wall Street opening. Powell's change in stance has caused futures markets to price an 84% probability of a quarter point rate cut in September and at least 100 base points of easing up to 3.25-3.5% in the middle of next. The broadest MSCI index of world stocks rose by 0.1%, and remained near the record highs set on Friday. In Asia, blue chips in China closed at their highest levels since 2022 with a gain of over 2%. Japan's Nikkei also closed 0.4% higher. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index was also down 0.2%, due to the decline in renewable stocks. This is after the U.S. Government ordered Denmark's Orsted halting construction of an offshore project near Rhode Island. Orsted's shares dropped by a record 17 percent after the move. It was a blow to the industry, and it put Orsted's capital raising plans at risk. London's markets were closed due to a holiday. This lowered the overall trading volume in Europe. The shares of Amsterdam-listed JDE Peet’s rose roughly 17% following Keurig Dr Pepper's agreement to purchase the company for $18,36 billion, a 20% premium over Friday's closing prices. Sources told the weekend that they expect the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged in September. If the economy continues to weaken, discussions about future cuts could resume in the fall. Florian Ielpo is the head of multi-assets at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. He said: "As an investment manager, you are losing an enemy when the Federal Reserve pivots, because it allows valuations to become more expensive." Ielpo, a Lombard Odier analyst, said that, after analyzing inventory data from manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers, he found that, while manufacturers had stockpiled in response to tariff announcements made by the government, retailers were holding little inventory at lower levels of the economic food-chain. Ielpo said that companies returning to replenish their stock will soon discover the true cost of U.S. Tariffs. This will be reflected in their third-quarter earnings. Two people with knowledge of the matter say that Switzerland hopes to finalise soon a new offer to Washington in order to reduce its tariff burden. This will include increased defence spending as well as greater access to U.S. interests for energy. The Swiss were shocked when U.S. president Donald Trump hit them with 39% tariffs this month, which are among the highest in the world. The Swiss Franc climbed 0.1% in relation to a basket. The dollar rose around 0.3% on the broader currency market to 147.31yen, after falling by 1% Friday. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1705 after recovering from its Friday low of $1.1583. The dollar rose, boosting the outlook for corporate profits, but also suggesting that policymakers are more concerned about a possible downturn in the economy and employment. The yields on euro zone bonds rose after falling late Friday, as traders reassessed the Fed's move and its impact in Europe. Due to the bank holiday, U.S. Treasury cash treasuries were not traded in London on Monday. The market's optimism will be put to the test by Friday's reading of personal consumption prices in the United States. It is expected that core inflation will reach its highest level since late 2023, at 2.9%. Any surprise in inflation could also threaten the rally of longer-dated Treasuries. This is especially true given that $183 billion worth of new debt will be sold this week. John Williams, the influential head of New York Fed is scheduled to speak on Monday. Markets will be eager to know if he shares Powell’s policy outlook. NVIDIA WATCH Nvidia is expected to report its results on Wednesday. It is predicted to announce an increase of 48% in earnings per share based on a revenue of $45,9 billion. Analysts are eager to learn more about the prospects for shipments into China, and the details of President Donald Trump's agreement to pay 15% of sales revenue to the U.S. Government from advanced chips sold in China. Trump announced on Friday that the U.S. will also purchase a 9,9% stake in Intel, for $8.9 Billion, or $20.47 a share. This represents a discount by about $4 compared to Intel's close share price of $25.80. Gold was slightly lower last week at $3,368 per ounce, after a 1% jump late last year. The lack of progress in the talks between Russia, Ukraine and Ukraine has also supported oil prices. Brent crude oil rose by 43 cents, to $68.16 per barrel. U.S. crude gained 25 cents, to $64.13 a barrel.
India's robust LNG imports are Asia's standout, however greater prices may weigh: Russell
Asia's imports of melted gas (LNG) are displaying contrasting characteristics in May, with strength in generally pricesensitive buyers like India, but a softer pattern in the established economies such as Japan and South Korea.
The top-importing continent is on track to receive about 23.61 million metric lots of the super-chilled fuel this month, according to information assembled by commodity experts Kpler.
This is up slightly from April's 23.23 million loads, although every day May's arrivals are a touch weaker, while they are more powerful than the 20.75 million from May 2023.
However while the total LNG import figures are relatively steady for Asia this month, the breakdown is rather at chances with recent movements in the area price.
India's May imports are estimated at 2.46 million heaps, up from 2.03 million in April and the greatest month considering that October 2020.
The rise in arrivals comes even as the area rate for delivery to North Asia << LNG-AS > has been rallying, rising from a. near three-year low of $8.30 per million British thermal units. ( mmBtu) in the week to Feb. 23 to a five-month high of $12.30. last week.
What deserves noting is that the cargoes arriving in India. in May would have been secured in a window from later February. to early April, a time when spot rates were increasing but were. still listed below the $10 per mmBtu level.
Now that the area cost has risen decisively above that. level, it raises the possibility that Indian utilities will. downsize purchases as LNG will no longer be competitive in the. domestic market.
There may be some early signs of this with Kpler tracking. 1.13 million tons of arrivals so far in June, over half of. that originating from the United States, suggesting those cargoes would. have been protected at costs before the recent rise.
Another South Asian purchaser with robust LNG imports is. Pakistan, with Kpler tracking arrivals of 730,000 loads in May,. which along with the exact same volume in January marks the strongest. outcome since June 2022.
Qatar is the major provider to both India and Pakistan and. it's likely that the South Asian nations had the ability to secure. competitive terms for area freights offered the Gulf manufacturer is. likely to have seen lower need from Europe in current months.
LNG vessels have been preventing the Red Sea and Suez Canal. since of attacks on shipping by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi. group, despite the fact that up until now no LNG carrier has actually been targeted.
This suggests Qatar's LNG deliveries to Europe have actually been. declining, dropping to 870,000 tons in May, the lowest since. August and below a recent peak of 1.23 million tons in. January.
But they may be recovering with Kpler tracking exports of. 1.02 million lots of LNG to Europe so far for June, and an. ongoing healing in volumes to Europe may cut those readily available at. discount rates to India and Pakistan.
NORTH ASIA EASES
In contrast to the strength in LNG imports in South Asia,. those in North Asia were softer in May.
China, the world's top purchaser, is on track to receive 5.96. million loads in May, below 6.47 million in April and the. least expensive regular monthly overall given that February, according to Kpler.
Nevertheless, China's imports are most likely to surpass the 5.80. million lots from May in 2015, continuing the pattern so far. this year of greater LNG arrivals amid a recovering economy and. constrained hydropower output.
Japan, the world's second-biggest LNG buyer, is expected to. import 4.83 million tons in May, below 5.36 million in. April, however greater than the 4.13 million from May in 2015.
Third-ranked South Korea is on track for May imports of 3.45. million loads, down from 3.99 million in April but greater than. the 3.19 million from May last year.
The general dynamic for the big three North Asian importers. is that arrivals are trending lower, in line with usual seasonal. relocations, however imports are higher on a yearly basis, which does. supply fundamental assistance for the higher area price.
Nevertheless, the recent spike higher in area prices may start to. weaken imports in South Asia from July onwards, in addition to in. China, where an increase above $10 per mmBtu makes it hard for. LNG to compete in the domestic market.
The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a writer. .
(source: Reuters)