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Gold gains ground as Fed meeting, US-Iran Deal details and Fed meeting in the spotlight.
Investors awaited the U.S. Central Bank's first policy announcement under new Chairman Kevin Warsh as well as further details on the U.S. Iran peace agreement to provide further direction. By 8:20 am EDT (1220 GMT), spot gold had not changed much at $4,325.59 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.2% to $4,345.00. Federal Reserve rate?decisions, policy statements and updated policymaker forecasts will be announced at 2 pm EDT (1800 GMT). Warsh will give a presser half an hour later. He replaced former Fed Chief Jerome Powell in the last month. Kevin Warsh will be the focus of attention, not U.S. interest rates. Gold is highly sensitive to interest rates expectations, so any hint of hawkishness could weigh on the metal. Prices may rise to $4,350, if $4300 is a reliable support. Weakness below the $4,300 level could lead to a drop back towards $4250-4200 per ounce. Last week, spot gold reached a low of nearly six months as inflation fears caused by the Iran conflict increased expectations for rate increases in the United States. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation but high interest rates can put pressure on bullion as it has no yield. After the U.S. reached a framework agreement with Iran, prices began to rebound. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that the agreement reached with Iran this week was not final and that he would be able to resume bombing a campaign if it did not suit him. "Gold and silver could reach a cyclical bottom between 2026 and 2027." In our baseline scenario gold could average around $4,000 an ounce by the year's end, while silver could settle at about $60, Intesa Sanpaolo analyst Daniela Corsini wrote in a report. Silver spot fell by 0.5%, to $69.84 an ounce. Palladium dropped 0.2% to $1,349.11 and platinum lost 0.9% at $1,787.15. Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru (reporting); Milla Nissi - Prussak; Diti Pujara; and Shashesh Kuber.
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IEA sees significant 2027 oil surplus after Hormuz recovery
In its monthly report on the oil market, released by the International Energy Agency on Wednesday, it was stated that the 'oil market' will recover from the Strait of Hormuz closure in 2027 and move into an important supply surplus. The U.S. announced an interim deal to 'end' the Iran war. This includes Iran reopening strait, and the U.S. removing its naval blockade against Iran. According to the IEA, it is estimated that more than 14,000,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), from Middle East production have been blocked by this war. In its first look into 2027, the IEA predicted that oil supply would surge by 8 millions bpd, while demand will rise by 2 million bpd. The IEA stated that a large supply surplus 'in 2027 would "provide a welcomed respite for the market, and the opportunity to replenish depleted stocks, or build new strategic reserve, as countries reviewed their energy policies and strategies in response to 'the crisis. The Middle East supply is already rising The IEA reported that the flow through the strait was already increasing by early June due to an increase in ship-to -ship transfers within the Gulf of Oman. This helped?to raise total Middle East flows from a low of 9.6 millions bpd in May to 12 million bpd. The agency that advises industrialized countries said, "If the deal is upheld, then exports and production in the Gulf will gradually recover - not to mention the fact that Iranian oil exports can resume fully once the U.S. ban on exports has been lifted." The IEA stated that political and operational constraints such as prolonged demining, and unresolved?transit arrangements, pose downside risks for the Middle East recovery 'outlook. The IEA predicts that oil production will fall by 3.9 millions bpd globally in 2026 as the Middle East's declines outpace the rise in output in the Americas. The IEA reported that Russian crude oil and refined oil exports were stable in May despite the continued drone attacks by Ukraine on refineries. However, these attacks forced Russia prioritise the supply of fuel to its domestic market while maximising crude oil exports. Brent futures were $79.32 per barrel at 1125 GMT on Wednesday. This is up 36 cents compared to the previous close, and up 74cents compared to where they were at just before the report at 0759 GMT. DEMAND DESTRUCTION SPREADS According to the IEA after a drop of 5 million bpd between April and June, global oil demand is expected to fall by 1.1 millions bpd in 2018. The IEA reported that the destruction of fuel demand has reached areas beyond those initially affected by the 'Iran War'. Deliveries of gasoil and all other major fuels are "showing signs" of strain in almost all regions. The IEA stated that the demand will grow and recover 'quickly' next year as falling oil prices and improving economic prospects drive the recovery. In its own report each month, rival forecaster OPEC lowered their forecast for the growth of oil demand in 2026 from 1.1 million barrels to 970,000. Large Surplus Looms in 2027 According to'calculations the IEA's forecasts imply a supply deficit of around 920,000 bpd in 2026. This is a decrease from a 1.78 million bpd in the previous report. The IEA forecasts for 2027 indicate that the supply of oil will exceed demand by 5,05 million bpd in 2019, as Middle East barrels return and supply increases. This is higher than the IEA's previous forecast for 2026, which it pinned in its November 20,25 report at 4,09 million bpd. The IEA warned that oil inventories may fall further, to historic lows, before the market balance can shift towards a surplus by the end of the year. According to preliminary IEA figures, inventories have dropped at a rate 3.8 million bpd in the period since the beginning of the conflict on February 28. Stock draws alone were around 4.6 millions bpd in May. (Reporting and editing by Tomasz Janowski and Jason Neely; reporting by Robert Harvey, London)
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The gold price has not changed much as the markets await Warsh's Fed debut and details of the US-Iran agreement
Gold prices were little altered on Wednesday as market participants focused on the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision under the new chair Kevin Warsh, and the details of the U.S. Iran peace agreement. By 1053 GMT the spot gold price was unchanged at $4,332.07 an ounce, following four sessions of gains. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.1% to $4,351.60. The gold market will be influenced by the FOMC's signals today. Investors will be closely watching how Kevin Warsh interprets the recent market developments, according to Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank. At 1800 GMT the Fed will announce its policy decision. It is widely expected that policymakers will keep rates unchanged. The focus will then shift to Warsh's remarks. Geopolitically, the details of the 'U.S. Details of the?U.S. and Iran's?interim agreement to end the Middle East war began to emerge Tuesday. U.S. After the announcement of the deal, spot gold rose to a one week?high. This was a rebound from the six-month low that it had reached last week. The higher energy prices that 'fuel inflation fears and expectations of rate increases' had weighed down on the non-yielding gold, which is?less appealing in an environment with high interest rates. Standard Chartered analysts said that gold 'price action is fragile in the short term following the breach of key technical support near the 200-day moving average. They added that the easing in liquidity requirements following the announcement by the 'U.S. and Iran memorandum on understanding bodes well for gold to find a price 'floor' sooner than later. Silver spot fell by 0.3%, to $69.98 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.8%, to $1,788.40, and palladium dropped 0.4%, to $1,346.45. Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru (Reporting and Editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak & Diti Pjara).
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Slovak farmers begin their first barley and pea harvests
Drought in southern Slovakia has caused the earliest harvest of barley and peas yet. The 'Slovak Agriculture and Food Chamber' said that the harvesting of winter barley began in the southwest regions of the Danube Lowlands last week, about a week and a half to two weeks sooner than usual. In recent years, the dates of harvesting cereals have gotten earlier and earlier across Europe. This has forced farmers to switch crop varieties or sow their crops at different times. Farmers and agronomists were worried about drought in fields near Velky Grob (southwest Slovakia) as they harvested peas. Tomas Paska, from the Macaj group of farming companies, said that a mild winter raised expectations for a good crop but a dry May and April meant lower yields?for crops grown on poorer soils. He said: "We can speak of a relatively good crop on irrigated farms, but in places without irrigation, or with weaker soils, the high temperatures will cause a rapid decrease in grain volume." Unprecedented dryness followed by rain Slovakia experienced the driest month of April since records began 145 years earlier. May and early-June were also dry. The last week has seen heavy rain. Slovak Agriculture and Food Chamber: Much depends on the conditions now as harvest continues. Jozef Artim, director of the chamber, said: "This trend has been around for several years. The harvest is shifting. Now the key is the weather during harvesting." "We are seeing periods of drought, which?are changing with intense rain. This will continue to pose a problem." Farmers can sow earlier than usual in autumn in the northern hemisphere. "Barley is usually a spring crop but many farmers now sow it in autumn to benefit from the moisture during the fall and winter, and briefly in?spring. Artim says that it is not uncommon for spring-sown barley to be useless. According to official statistics, Slovaks harvested 2.3 millions metric tons (or 2.2 million bushels) of wheat last year, which is the most common crop. The increase in area sown, combined with higher yields, meant that the harvest was 20% more than the 2024 crop. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Radovan Lopatka and Jan Lopatka)
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Formula One's carbon footprint has dropped by 35% since 2018.
Formula One reported a 35% decrease in its carbon footprint last year, compared to the baseline of 2018. The motor racing organization said that it is on track to achieve its goal to become net-zero by 2030. The 2025 Annual Review found that Formula One has reduced its travel emissions by 27% since 2018. This is due to a reduction of 12% in carbon footprints compared to the 2024 review, as well as a reduction of 12% in carbon footprints compared with 2024. The organisation stated that "the cross-sport commitment towards reducing carbon emission has seen nearly?80,000 tons of carbon dioxide eliminated from Formula One operations" since 2018. The equivalent of one passenger flying "over 500 million kilometers" or completing more than 100,000 one-way trips across the Atlantic (from London to New York). The sport, with 22 Grands Prix scheduled for this year, is aiming to reduce emissions by teams, staff, and personnel traveling between race locations. The statement said that "more than 50% of Formula 1 broadcast and freight related to it will be removed by air transport by 2030. This marks a significant milestone in achieving the?minimum emission reduction target." Stefano Domenicali, the President and CEO of Formula One, said that he was proud of all the efforts made by the organization to stay on track for net-zero status by 2030. He added: "From calendar rationalisation to increased investment in sustainable fuels and alternative energy solutions, we've reduced our footprint as the sport continues its growth." (Reporting by Chiranjit Ojha in Bengaluru; Editing by Toby Chopra)
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Welcome to the Warsh era with MORNING BID AMERICAS
Anna Szymanski is the Editor-in Charge of Open Interest. As markets awaited the first meeting of the new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at the helm?of the U.S. Central Bank, global stocks were stable on Wednesday. Investors will focus on the message today as policymakers are expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Oil prices stabilized on Tuesday after falling below $80 per barrel for the first time since months, as new details about the U.S. Iran memorandum emerged. This included the possibility of lifting sanctions on Iranian oil. Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. WELCOME INTO THE WARSH ERA Although policymakers are not expected to make any changes to the federal funds rate at this time, the markets will be paying close attention to the way Warsh votes and his language during the press conference today. Donald Trump, who appointed Warsh, had repeatedly called for rate cuts when the previous Fed chair Jerome Powell was in charge. Trump has reiterated that he prefers a looser policy. However, he has stated that he will allow Warsh to do as he pleases. Warsh's problem is that the markets will view his words and action through a political prism regardless. This makes effective communication much more difficult. Warsh's stance on the market is a big question today. Rate hikes are expected this year due to the Iran War-induced energy squeeze, and relatively positive economic data in the United States. The preliminary agreement between the U.S. & Iran will have an impact on inflation and interest rates, but how much is still unknown. Bond yields dropped on Wednesday, as oil prices fell in early trading. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was hovering at $79 per barrel. This latest drop is attributed to reports that the U.S. would waive sanctions on Iranian crude oil for a specific period, and all U.S. sanctions as well as UN sanctions against Iran will be lifted once a deal has been signed. It's still too early to tell how much oil and natural gas will come out of the Strait of Hormuz over the next few months. There are many unknowns regarding the deal and the damage caused by the Gulf War to energy facilities. It is possible that the market will experience some volatility as it finds its new equilibrium. The Dow also closed at an?record level for the second consecutive day, as pressure on U.S. technology stocks yesterday caused the S&P and Nasdaq to fall. Elon Musk’s SpaceX, however, continued to climb, ending up with a nearly 5% gain, surpassing Amazon’s market value - and briefly even surpassing Microsoft’s. Wall Street futures are pointing upwards just before the bell. A UK CPI report on Wednesday revealed that the inflation rate in May was lower than expected. This print comes one day before Bank of England's meeting, and provides further?justification to keep rates unchanged, as is expected by many. Chart of the Day SpaceX's market value, which was $2.646 trillion on Tuesday, briefly exceeded Microsoft's $2.92 billion. Apple, Alphabet, and Nvidia are all over $4 trillion, followed by Apple, Alphabet, and Nvidia. Watch today's events * U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision (2:00 p.m. ET) and press conference (2:30?pm EDT). EDT) * U.S. May retail sales (8:30 a.m. EDT) G7 leaders hold discussions on global economy in France Want to receive "the Morning Bid" in your email every morning? Subscribe to the newsletter. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to independence, integrity and neutrality under the Trust Principles. (By Anna Szymanski, Additional writing by Al Reed and Editing by Hugh Lawson).
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Former CNOOC executive sentenced with reprieve to death for taking bribes
China's official media Xinhua reported that a former chief executive of state-owned oil giant CNOOC Ltd. was sentenced to a death sentence for accepting bribes, but the sentence has been stayed for two years. Yuan Guangyu retired from CNOOC as CEO in September 2019, after reaching mandatory retirement age. He was also the former deputy general director of CNOOC’s parent company, China National Offshore Oil Corporation. According to Xinhua, Yuan's political rights were also revoked for life in the ruling of the Xuzhou Intermediate People's Court. The court found that Yuan accepted illegally, directly or indirectly, more than 152,000,000 yuan (22.49million dollars) between 2001 and 2022 by using his position to assist companies and individuals in?matters like project contracts, business operations and job changes. The court stated that Yuan had confessed to crimes he hadn't yet been able to discover, and returned illegal gains. The court, based on these mitigating circumstances, sentenced him to death but decided that it would be reviewed in two years. In China, a death sentence with reprieve is usually commuted to a life imprisonment if the offender does not commit any crimes during that period. $1 = 6.7580 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Raju Gopikrishnan).
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Sources say that China's Yulong Petrochemical has shut down its crude and petchem units to perform maintenance.
Four sources familiar with this matter claim that Shandong Yulong Petrochemical in China, the country's newest refiner which began operations less than two year ago, has shut down one of its two crude units since last week to perform maintenance. Two of the sources said that the shutdown of the crude oil unit producing 200,000 barrels per day is expected to take a little over a month. The company has also closed a reforming unit that produces aromatics typically from heavy naphtha. This was for a similar period. The two people said that Yulong's other crude oil unit, which produces 200,000-bpd in Yantai, Shandong Province, is currently operating at 90-100% capacity. They added that the two ethylene steam?crackers, each of which is sized at 1.5 million metric tonnes per?year, are operating at 90-100%. Yulong did not respond immediately to a request for a comment sent via email. China's crude oil output fell to its lowest level in almost four years last month due to thinned margins and lower-than-expected fuel consumption.
Data shows that Indian jet fuel exports back to Europe will reach 2025 levels.
Kpler and LSEG data shows that India's exports to Europe of?jet-fuel from Russia have risen to levels not seen before the EU imposed a ban on russian-origin fuel in January.
Data from Kpler indicates that the EU imported 62,000 barrels of jet fuel per day from India's Jamnagar Refinery to Italy.
LSEG data also shows that the EU imports around 64,000 bpd?fuel.
Both data platforms indicate that imports have been at their highest level since December 2025, when they were around 89,000 bpd.
The European Union banned products made from Russian oil on January 21, aiming to curb oil revenues that Moscow uses to finance the Ukraine war.
Reliance has two refineries in its Jamnagar compound - one is geared towards exports, and the other for India's domestic market.
Last year, it announced that it no longer processed Russian crude oil at its export-oriented facility.
In April, the Trump administration renewed a waiver that allowed countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum product loaded on vessels until?May 16th. Data from LSEG and Kpler indicated that the cargoes were loaded between May 16 and 25.
India exported 89,000 bpd of jet fuel to the EU in the last year, which was 16% of total imports.
(source: Reuters)