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Andy Home: Zinc ROI-LME turns wild when bears sleep-walk and squeeze into the squeeze:
London Metal Exchange's zinc contract is on a wild ride this week, with time-spreads reaching record levels in the face of depleted stock. Since several months the zinc market has been sleeping-walking to this storm, believing that the falling LME inventories were not a true representation of a growing market surplus. Metal has been leaking out of LME's warehouses. There are only 35,300 tons left, which is barely enough for a day's global consumption. The arrivals have been very low despite the increasing premium for cash deliveries. It's a painful squeeze for the bears who misjudged zinc's changing dynamics. SINGAPORE SLING Last year, there were 300.000 tons of zinc in LME storage warehouses. Most of them were in Singapore where the warehouse operators were in a fierce competition to earn storage revenues. Over the course of 2024, there was an enormous amount of metal movement as warehouse incentives were pushed and pulled. These deals often took the form of rental-sharing agreements with trade houses. Last year, almost 700,000 tonnes of zinc were moved into and out of Singapore's warehouses, but the inventory change was only a modest 35,550 tons. Nevertheless, something changed at the beginning of this year. Zinc left LME registered stock but did not appear in the shadows of off-warrant ready for renewal warranting at another warehouse. Singapore's trade statistics show that refined zinc exports are increasing to destinations such as Djibouti, in east Africa, and Guatemala, in central America. It's safe to assume that the LME stock has been sold around the globe, since the city has no zinc refineries or smelters. Smelters Power Down How is it that the rest of world is in short supply of a metal which is supposed to have a surplus of supply? The latest bi-annual statistical update of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group provides clues. Western smelters are closing or reducing production as the zinc demand is stagnant and mine supplies are booming after two years in contraction. ILZSG predicts that global metal production will rise by 2.7% in this year, but the main contributor to this increase is China. Its refined zinc production is expected to grow by 6.2%. It is clear that production outside China has fallen as smelters have reduced run rates, or in the case Toho Zinc’s Annaka smelter, located in Japan, and Glencore’s secondary zinc operations, located in Italy, completely closed. This year, the projected surplus supply is only 85,000 tons. It's all from China. SURPLUS TOMORROW - PAIN TODAY It's not surprising that London has a higher zinc price than the Shanghai Futures Exchange, given the regional disparity in supply. The most obvious solution to the disconnect between the Chinese market and the rest of the world is by importing Chinese products into LME warehouses. Unfortunately, physical arbitrage is a slow process and LME short positions holders need metal now. Why is there a cash premium on three-month metal? The price of steel has increased to more than $300 per ton. This is the most tight market since the LME Special High Grade Contract was launched in the late 1980s. The six dominant longs have cumulative cash positions of over three times the available stock. In the "tom next" spread, it is easy to see that there are tensions between short position holders. This week, the cost of rolling over a short position was as high as 30 dollars per ton. Stocks will continue to suffer until they are rebuilt in a meaningful manner. Surplus is on its way. ILZSG predicts a massive excess production of 271,000 tonnes in 2026. It's just not there. Or at least not where the holders of LME short positions need it. Andy Home is an author and columnist. Andy Home is a columnist.
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New York Times Business News - October 23,
These are the most popular stories from the New York Times' business pages. These stories have not been verified and we cannot vouch for the accuracy of these reports. Meta has announced that it will be cutting approximately 600 jobs from its artificial intelligence division in order to keep up with the competition in this fierce battle over technology. After a failed meeting between the two Russian leaders in Budapest, U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would impose significant new sanctions against Russia. This is the first time he has done so in his second term. It also highlights a new level of frustration towards Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Trump administration has taken a number of unconventional measures in order to ensure the supply of minerals that are essential for manufacturers of automobiles, jet engines and weaponry, while China is using its control over rare earth exports as a way to cripple global industries. General Motors has unveiled a new set of technology features, including an artificial intelligence assistant people can speak to while driving, a battery that is cheaper and self-driving programs that allow some drivers to put their eyes away from the road. (Compiled by Bengaluru Newsroom)
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Mongolia's top court blocks attempt to remove prime minister, deepening the political deadlock
Mongolia's highest court has ruled that a vote in parliament to remove the prime minister was unconstitutional. Analysts say this could lead to further turmoil as factions within the ruling party fight over the economy. Montsame, an official news agency, reported Thursday that the Constitutional Court ruled that a motion by the State Great Khural (or parliament) to remove Prime Minister Zandanshatar Gombojav last Friday was without legal basis. The court agreed with the President KhurelsukhUkhnaa who, on Monday, vetoed a resolution of the Parliament to dismiss Zandanshatar citing procedural errors, such as the use an "incorrect vote formula." Zandanshatar is expected to have the ability to fend of reformists in the Mongolian People's Party, led by Amarbayasgalan Dashzegve. This was said by Xu Tianchen a senior analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit. Zandanshatar wants to implement a conservative economic policy in advance of the 2027 election, and is resisting calls for more anti-corruption policies and progressive taxes. Analysts say that the conflict could result in a policy impasse, which would be economically harmful. It would worsen the cost of living crisis, and delay efforts to diversify beyond mining. Government instability will also hinder long-term planning, and discourage foreign investment. Mongolian People's Party is also under pressure to respond to public discontent about allegations that officials of the government misappropriated funds and engaged in corruption. These concerns sparked massive street protests, including in the capital Ulaanbaatar. This led to the removal of Prime Minister L. Oyun Erdene by parliament four months ago. Xu said, "I'm worried that the turbulence could last until 2027 as the factional war within the Mongolian People's Party will continue." "President Khurelsukh tried to defend his country, but as his presidency nears its end, his influence will decrease," he said. "Amarbayasgalan will do everything to dominate the political scene." COAL-POWERED POLITICS Zandanshatar was dismissed by the Parliament after his government proposed a change in the calculation of mining royalties from international benchmark prices, to lower domestic prices. The plan would decrease government revenue, but increase profits for both domestic and foreign mining firms. This would limit the state's capacity to finance infrastructure and social welfare projects. Customs data shows that Mongolia exported 80 million tons worth $8.6 Billion in coal to China. This cements the commodity as Mongolia's number one export. Around 90% of the coal exported to China. The International Monetary Fund stated in September that falling coal prices and unpredictable Chinese coal demand, due to a slowing Chinese economy and Beijing's efforts at curbing coal overcapacity, were impacting Mongolia's prospects for growth. They urged officials to push structural reforms. Eric Olander is the co-founder of China-Global South Project. He said that China would not be affected by politics in the north, so long as the winner can guarantee mineral supplies and remains friendly to Beijing. Olander said that the increasing number of countries in the region where young people are protesting the erosion of social contracts between the government and the society may start to cause concern. "They do not want another country on its periphery becoming a variable," Olander stated, citing the uprisings of 'Gen-Z,' in Indonesia, Philippines, and Nepal as well as the instability along China's border with Myanmar and India. "Young people feel that their governments are screwing them over, which is a kind of populist reaction. Vietnam and China are not immune to this, even though their social contracts are stronger. Joe Cash, Liz Lee, and the Shanghai Newsroom contributed to this report. Editing was done by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Lincoln Feast and Muralikumar Anantharaman.
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Dollar firms focus on US inflation data as gold falls
Gold prices fell on Thursday as a result of a stronger dollar. Investors were awaiting the key U.S. data on inflation due later in the week to get hints on interest rate changes. As of 0502 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.1%, at $4,089.21 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1% to $4104.70 an ounce. Gold is now more expensive to other currency holders due to the 0.2% rise in the dollar index. "We have seen a normal correction after the recent rally of gold, and there is still some downward pressure." GoldSilver Central MD Brian Lan stated that we expect the prices to continue their upward trend and consolidate afterward. "At the moment, we're still bullish on the gold market in the long term, but short-term investors need to be careful because volatility is high." After a delay caused by the government shutdown, Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index report is expected to reveal that core inflation remained at 3.1% for September. Investors are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. When interest rates are low, gold tends to increase in value as the cost of non-yielding metals is reduced. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he was expecting to reach a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He also stated that he will raise concerns regarding China's purchase of Russian oil at their next meeting in South Korea. The Trump administration is mulling over a plan that would curb an array of software-powered products exported to China. These include laptops, jet engines and even aircraft. This move is in response to Beijing's recent round of restrictions on rare earth exports. Trump has imposed sanctions against Russia related to the Ukraine for the first times in his second term. He targeted oil companies Lukoil, and Rosneft. Gold prices are up 56% in the past year. They reached a record high of $4,381.21 Monday. This is due to geopolitical, economic and rate-cutting bets, as well as sustained central bank purchases. Other metals, such as platinum and palladium, also fell. Palladium dropped 1.7%, while platinum rose 0.1%.
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Shanghai copper prices rise as US trade restrictions against China are considered
Shanghai copper rose on Thursday, thanks to bullish expectations about China's five-year plan. This was despite renewed tensions between China and the United States, where the White House is considering limiting software exports. As of 0330 GMT, the most active copper contract traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.73%, trading at $86,610.81 per metric tonne. The benchmark three-month price of copper rose 0.26%, trading at $10,691 Yuan per ton. The focus of the market is on the Fourth Plenum of the ruling Communist Party, which will close on Thursday. This meeting is to finalize a draft proposal for the 15th five-year plan outlining the goals and objectives of economic and social growth. Analysts and observers expect that these goals will focus on consumption as well as technological advancements and industrial upgrades. According to National Bureau of Statistics data released on Wednesday, China's output of copper in September fell 2.7% from month-to-month despite an increase of 10% year-over-year. The decline month-on-month was in line the market expectations. Traders expect further decline in October. The country's Mines Minister said that Angola will begin producing its first major copper mine soon, which is owned by China's Shining Star Lcarus. Copper's gains shrugged off renewed trade tensions following reports that Washington could bar exports to China for items made using U.S.-developed software as a response to China’s new rare earth restrictions. Sources say that the details are unclear and that it is possible that this plan will not go ahead. When asked by reporters about proposed software limitations, U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that he was "open to everything". Aluminium was also up 0.59% among SHFE's base metals. This followed a move on the LME where the 3-month aluminium hit $2,822 per ton. It is the highest price since June 2022. Century Aluminum announced on Tuesday that its Iceland smelter was forced to reduce production by two-thirds due to a failure of electrical equipment. Zinc rose 1.27%. Lead soared 3.12%. Tin fell 0.15%. Nickel was little altered. Other LME metals saw a slight decline in zinc, a gain of 0.58% for lead, and little change for nickel or tin. ($1 = 7.1230 Chinese yuan renminbi) Thursday, October 23, DATA/EVENTS 0500 Japan Chain Stores Sales YY Sep 645 France Business Conditions Mfg, Overall Oct 1400 UK CBI Business Confidence Q4 Flash Oct 1400 Existing Home Sales in the US Sep (Reporting and Editing by Janane Vekatraman; Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan)
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Dollar firms focus on US inflation data as gold falls
Gold prices fell on Thursday as a result of a stronger dollar. Investors were awaiting the key U.S. data on inflation due later in the week to get hints on interest rate changes. As of 0310 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.2%, at $4,084.29 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 0.9% per ounce to $4,100.90. Gold is now more expensive to other currency holders due to the 0.2% rise in the dollar index. "We have seen a normal correction after the recent rally of gold, and there is still some downward pressure." GoldSilver Central MD Brian Lan stated that we expect the prices to continue their upward trend and consolidate afterward. "At the moment, we're still bullish on the gold market in the long term, but short-term investors need to be careful because volatility is high." After a delay caused by the government shutdown, Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index report is expected to reveal that core inflation remained at 3.1% for September. Investors are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. When interest rates are low, gold tends to increase in value as the cost of non-yielding metals is reduced. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he was expecting to reach a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He also stated that he will raise concerns regarding China's purchase of Russian oil at their next meeting in South Korea. The Trump administration is mulling over a plan that would curb an array of software-powered products exported to China, ranging from laptops and jet engines to counter Beijing's recent round of restrictions on rare earth exports. Trump has imposed sanctions against Russia related to the Ukraine for the first times in his second term. He targeted oil companies Lukoil, and Rosneft. Gold prices are up 56% in the past year. They reached a record high of $4,381.21 Monday. This is due to geopolitical, economic and rate-cutting bets, as well as sustained central bank purchases. Silver fell 0.2% at $48.43 an ounce; platinum fell 0.6% at $1,612.90, and palladium dropped 1.1% to $1.442.70.
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Ocean Winds Sells 20% Stake in French Offshore Wind Farm to Allianz for $230M
Ocean Winds, the 50-50 joint venture between Portugal’s EDP Renováveis and France’s Engie, has agreed to sell a 20.25% stake in its 500 MW Îles d’Yeu et Noirmoutier offshore wind project in France to Allianz Global Investors for $232 million.Located in Vendée on France’s Atlantic coast, the Îles d’Yeu et Noirmoutier offshore wind farm consists of 61 Siemens Gamesa turbines of 8.2 MW each and is backed by a 20-year inflation-linked feed-in tariff ensuring long-term revenue stability.The transaction implies an enterprise value-to-megawatt ratio of $6.5 million, according to EDP, which holds a 71.3% stake in EDP Renováveis.Following a final investment decision in April 2023, construction has reached its final phase.Power generation began in June 2025, with more than half of the turbines already installed and supplying electricity to French households.The wind farm is expected to be fully commissioned by the end of 2025.After the sale, the project’s ownership will comprise Ocean Winds with 40%, Allianz Global Investors with 20.25%, Sumitomo Corp with 29.5%, Banque des Territoires with 9.75%, and Vendée Energie with 0.5%.
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Trump Halt on Offshore Wind Hits US Shipbuilders, Ports
U.S. shipbuilders and port operators are getting hit in the fallout from President Donald Trump’s campaign to wipe out the offshore wind industry, suffering hundreds of millions of dollars in lost government support, vanishing vessel orders, and an uncertain future for the billions of dollars' worth of investments.The impact represents an unintended consequence of Trump’s policy on the offshore wind industry, which has included stop-work orders and permit reviews for massive projects that were spurred by former President Joe Biden's green investment policy.Trump calls offshore wind an unsightly and inefficient technology that harms whales and birds. But he is also a huge supporter of U.S. maritime industries that he views as crucial in the global competition for trade and military dominance of the high seas."He has a counterproductive argument," said Joe Orgeron, a Republican Louisiana state representative and former offshore vessel business owner, who pointed out the offshore wind industry was responsible for many ship orders in recent years. “That all came to a sudden halt, unfortunately."Reuters interviewed 13 port representatives, shipbuilders and trade groups who detailed the knock-on impacts of Trump’s policy moves targeting offshore wind, the details of which are reported here for the first time.The impacts include more than $679 million worth of canceled Department of Transportation financing for ports to support offshore wind, including a $34 million grant for a facility in Salem, Massachusetts that was expected to generate $75 million in tax revenue over 20 years and create 800 jobs.Meanwhile, orders for new offshore wind service vessels - designed to carry workers and huge turbines offshore or to lay undersea cable - have also disappeared, according to trade group Oceantic, following a busy 2024 that saw the launch of at least 10 U.S. vessels built to serve offshore wind.Existing vessels are also being sold off, or considered for redeployment to other global regions, according to the reporting.The Trump administration said it can revive the U.S. shipbuilding and port industry, which has suffered from years of cost-inflation and a dearth of government support, without offshore wind’s support."This administration will restore America’s maritime dominance by modernizing our ports and expanding our shipbuilding capacities to compete with communist China," the U.S. Department of Transportation told Reuters."We’re also doing it as quickly and cost-effectively as possible— two attributes completely absent in offshore wind manufacturing."BIG CANCELLATIONDanish shipping giant Maersk canceled a $475 million contract earlier this month for a ship that was custom designed to install massive turbines at the Empire Wind power project off the coast of New York, laying bare the downturn in vessel demand.Equinor's Empire Wind had been embroiled in Trump’s opposition to offshore wind earlier this year when the administration issued a stop-work order that delayed its construction for a month.The ship’s builder, Singapore-based Seatrium, said it was evaluating its options for the vessel, which was nearly fully built, and could take legal action.Offshore wind’s rise in the Northeast in recent years had fueled robust demand for many such vessels, including several built in U.S. shipyards or flying U.S. flags, according to trade group Oceantic Network. It said the sector cumulatively has attracted $5.1 billion in port investments and $1.8 billion in vessel orders.Among the vessels built is the $715 million Charybdis, the only U.S.-flagged wind turbine installation vessel, which is now working on Dominion Energy’s D.N Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project.Louisiana’s Edison Chouest also built two major offshore worker housing vessels for Equinor and Orsted projects currently under construction.But that work is drying up.Offshore wind developer US Wind said in court documents filed this month it had been on track to secure specialized vessels for offshore wind installation, but the Trump administration's efforts to stop its Maryland project had disrupted that progress.Such vessels are scarce and booked years in advance, requiring early action to meet construction timelines, the company said.Rhode Island’s Blount Boats, which began building crew transfer vessels for offshore wind in 2016, said it has stopped completely.“We’ve moved on,” said Executive Vice President Julie Blount. “There are no contracts for those boats, and it’s simply because the Trump administration has closed that down.”Meanwhile, some existing vessels serving offshore wind are being sold off.Houston-based Seacor Marine announced in August it would sell two U.S.-flagged liftboats — used on the Block Island and South Fork offshore wind farms — to Nigerian oil and gas services company JAD Construction for $76 million, citing delays and cancellations.Seacor did not respond to a request for comment.Other ships face uncertain futures. The $200 million Acadia, America’s first rock installation vessel, will likely work overseas after completing jobs for Equinor and Orsted, said Bill Hanson of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp.The company has no plans for more offshore wind vessels.PORTS REELING TOOOceantic estimated last year that more than two dozen U.S. ports were pursuing offshore wind projects. Many of those lost critical funding after the DOT canceled 12 grants worth $679 million in August, hitting projects in states including Massachusetts, New York, California, Maryland, and Virginia."It’s realistic to look at the current landscape and see that this industry is going to be deeply challenged by the current administration," said Salem Mayor Dominick Pangallo, whose city’s port project is struggling after a funding cancellation.In Northern California, the Humboldt Bay offshore wind port that lost $426.7 million - the bulk of the canceled DOT funding - is expected to be delayed by about five years to at least 2035, according to Chris Mikkelsen, executive director of the Humboldt Bay Harbor, Recreation and Conservation District.The project is hoping to be able to tap funds from a state climate bond to make up for the lost federal money.In Norfolk, Virginia, the developer of a marine logistics terminal that lost a $39 million DOT grant submitted a revised proposal refocusing the project away from offshore wind to align with the administration's priorities, city economic development officials told Reuters.Some port projects are still underway. Equinor's South Brooklyn Marine Terminal, which will support its Empire Wind project, is 70% complete and has employed about 3,000 workers, according to a company spokesperson.In Maryland, US Wind says it is sticking with its plan for a shoreline steel manufacturing facility that could serve the shipbuilding and energy industries despite both the cancellation of a $47.4 million port grant and the administration's plans to revoke the permit for its offshore wind project. But US Wind has also warned in court documents that it could face bankruptcy if its project is canceled.Jim Strong of the United Steelworkers union, which has a deal to supply workers for US Wind's facility, said he was optimistic that Trump would see how investments in offshore wind can reverberate through industries that he cares about."He showed a tremendous amount of passion in his campaigns in talking about steel," Strong said of Trump. "I want to believe that once the story is out there, that there could be a change of positions."(Reuters)
Asian markets fall as US considers new trade restrictions on China
Asian stocks dropped for a second consecutive day on Thursday, as Wall Street was hit by a sell-off due to lackluster earnings from the tech giants. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on Russia and possible export controls against China rekindled geopolitical concerns.
After the U.S. placed sanctions on Rosneft, and Lukoil - two major Russian oil companies - over the Ukraine conflict, the price of oil jumped 3%.
The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 0.4% last week, while Japan's Nikkei225 dropped 1.5%.
Chinese stocks dropped as much as 1,1% after sources claimed that the White House was considering a plan aimed at curbing a range of software-powered products exported to China as retaliation against Beijing's recent round of restrictions on rare earth exports.
Investors are on the defensive as Trump's Asia trip (next Monday) is causing geopolitical tensions, according to Charu Chanana of Saxo Bank, Singapore.
The talk about U.S. software import curbs to China is hitting tech sentiment where it hurts. And renewed sanctions against Russia are a reminder of geopolitical risk that's not going away.
As corporate earnings season begins, global equity markets are taking profits and easing from record highs. Although megacaps' results and outlooks disappointed investors, the majority of companies have so far surpassed analysts' expectations.
South Korean stocks dropped 0.7% due to a general decline in tech hardware manufacturers. As expected, the Bank of Korea held rates at their current level.
Brent crude rose 2.9% to $64.41 a barrel on Wednesday after U.S. president Donald Trump imposed sanctions related to Ukraine for the first in his second term. The sanctions targeted Rosneft, and Lukoil. The move was made on the same day that EU countries approved their 19th package on Moscow, which included a ban of Russian liquefied gas imports.
Kyle Rodda is a senior analyst at Capital.com, a Melbourne-based market research firm. "Most Asian countries are net energy consumers and this inhibits their growth and is only a marginal factor in inflation."
Reliance Industries, India's biggest buyer of Russian oil, plans to drastically reduce its imports in response to EU and US sanction. Other Indian refiners are also expected to make significant reductions.
Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventory fell last week due to increased refining and demand.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% following a second consecutive day of losses for U.S. shares overnight, as analysts were disappointed by earnings reports from megacap tech companies.
Netflix shares dropped more than 10% Wednesday after the streaming giant gave investors a sour outlook for the next quarter.
Tesla shares dropped 3.8% after-hours after the company reported a profit that did not meet analysts' expectations despite a record third-quarter sales that exceeded estimates.
Apple shares dropped 1.6% on Wednesday after two civil rights groups filed a complaint with EU antitrust regulators over the App Store terms and conditions and its devices. The groups claimed that Apple had violated landmark rules intended to rein in Big Tech.
Treasury bonds fluctuated in value, and the yield of the U.S. 10 year note closed at 3.9549%. This is up 0.19 basis points from the previous close of 3.95%.
Investors think that the Federal Reserve will continue to ease policy. Fed funds futures indicate a 96% probability that the U.S. Central Bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on October 29. This is compared to a 98.3% possibility on Wednesday.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, last traded 0.1% higher at 99.062.
In early Asian trading, gold prices were close to $4,000 per ounce and down by 0.2%. Investors booked profits before the U.S. inflation report due this week.
(source: Reuters)