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The oil price is on track to make solid gains this week as China and the U.S. resume their trade talks
After the U.S. President Donald Trump resumed his trade talks with China's Xi Jinping, oil prices fell on Friday. However, they were still on track to gain their first weekly increase in three weeks. This was due to hopes of growth and higher demand in two of the world's largest economies. Brent crude futures dropped 12 cents or 0.2% to $65.22 per barrel at 0133 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude lost 15 cents (0.2%), to $63.22, following a gain of around 50 cents Thursday. Both benchmarks are on course to end the week higher, after two weeks of falling. Brent is up 2.1%, and WTI is 4% higher this week. Markets continued to move with the news of tariff negotiations, and data that showed how tariff impacts and trade war uncertainty are affecting global economies. China's official Xinhua News Agency said that trade talks between Xi Trump were held at Washington's request. Trump said that the conversation had ended in a "very good conclusion," and added that the U.S. is "in a very good position with China and the deal." According to Melanie Joly, the Minister of Industry, Canada, Mark Carney, was in direct contact with Donald Trump. Canada's ongoing wildfires have also contributed to the market. Saudi Arabia, the top exporter of crude oil to Asia, has cut its crude prices in July to levels that are near their two-month lows. This was a lower price drop than expected, after OPEC+ agreed in July to increase output by 411,000 barrels a day. The Kingdom had been pushing for a larger output increase, as part of a broader strategic plan to win back the market share and discipline the over-producers within OPEC+. This grouping includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia. Economic indicators show that the U.S. service sector contracted for the first time since nearly a full year in May, and the number of weekly claims for unemployment benefits rose, again pointing to the cooling of the labor market. Investors await Friday's nonfarm payrolls data in the United States for more information on Federal Reserve interest rate policy. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul; SudarshanVaradhan)
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Tesla falls as Trump-Musk's bromance soured. Stocks are on alert for payrolls
Asian shares were tepid on Friday, as investors prepared for the important payrolls report. Tesla also suffered massive losses due to the public feud between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump. The markets are wary after a string of weak economic data, and they're worried that a surprise downturn in the payrolls report due later today could add to fears of inflation while increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve. Tesla shares rose 0.8% after hours trading, after plummeting 14% overnight and wiping out $150 billion of market value. Trump had threatened to stop government contracts for Elon Musk's businesses after the relationship, which was once very close, turned into an angry public feud. Futures on the Nasdaq were unchanged, while those for S&P 500 rose by 0.1%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.1% on Friday, but is still expected to rise 2.2% weekly and hover at just below its eight-month high. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.3%, but will drop by 0.7% on a weekly basis. The KOSPI, the South Korean stock index, is closed this week for a holiday. However, it was up 4,2% to a near 11-month high as newly-elected President Lee Jae Myung prepared an emergency package designed to revive the economy. The won also gained 2% to reach an eight-month high this week. The blue chips in China were flat, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3% after a phone call between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping failed to provide any clarity on how to ease the ongoing trade tensions. Luke Yeaman is the chief economist of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. He said that the U.S. and China agreement to deescalate tensions and the recent telephone call between Trump, and Xi shows both countries are able to tolerate economic pain. This takes off some serious downside scenarios, but tensions are high and more bouts of escalation will likely occur...we see few prospects that a comprehensive US China trade agreement will be resolved by 14 August." WAIT FOR PAYROLLS Payrolls report expectations have been dampened by weaker-than-expected labour data. This includes a 47% jump in Challenger's layoffs year-on-year and a major surprise on the downside in ADP private payrolls. Forecasts predict a gain of 130,000 new jobs in May with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. A sudden weakness in the U.S. economy could trigger a rate cut and cause a massive rally in Treasuries. The futures market indicates that there is little chance of a rate reduction until September. This is 93% priced-in, and another move will likely come in December. The yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries remained flat at 4.3925 percent, after rising 3 basis points over night to recover from a 1-month low. In a client note, analysts at TD Securities said that they expect payrolls in May to print below consensus levels of 110,000. In recent weeks, the markets have been focusing solely on tariffs and debts. Macro has taken a backseat. We may not have enough information to help catalyze a renewed focus on macroeconomics, but we do expect that downside surprises will cause a greater market reaction. On Friday, the dollar's value against its major counterparts was unchanged. However, it was expected to drop by 0.7% in the coming week due to weak economic data. After the European Central Bank reduced rates, but also signaled the nearing end of the year-long policy-easing cycle, the euro gained some support overnight and reached a six-week high of $1.1495. Investors have given in to a move for July. The final move is expected in December. On the commodities market, oil prices are slightly lower than last week but they will likely rise by a large amount this week due to supply concerns. U.S. Crude Futures fell 0.1% to $65.29 per barrel, but were up 2.1% on the week. Gold prices rose 0.3%, to $3,362 per ounce. They are up 2.2% for the week.
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London copper to gain weekly on the back of easing trade tensions and supply concerns
London copper prices are on course to end the week on a high note on Friday. This is due to hopes that U.S. China trade tensions will ease and to concerns about supply disruptions caused by mining operations being suspended and decreasing inventories. As of 0111 GMT the three-month contract for copper on LME fell 0.1%, to $9,727 per ton, but it was up 2.4% over the past week. On Thursday, the market reached its highest level since March 31, at $9.809.50. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract gained 0.6% this week to 78 560 yuan per ton, or about 1.1%. The U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a rare call Thursday between leaders. They left the key issues for future talks and invited each other to their respective countries. "The market sentiment was boosted due to the easing of trade tensions. Trump and Xi have agreed to further trade talks after Trump claimed that they had resolved disputes over rare earth exports in a phone call," ANZ reported. LME copper inventories fell to 138,000 tonnes, the lowest in almost a year. They are down nearly half this year. . Teck Resources, a copper miner, reported this week production setbacks in two Chilean operations. The Kakula copper project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ANZ stated, was also affected by seismic activity causing the underground part of the operation to flood. LME aluminium fell 0.1%, to $2,475 per ton, while lead rose 0.4%, to $1,986.5. SHFE tin was the best performer Friday, rising 1.5% to 262,880 Yuan. Aluminium fell 0.1% to 20,035 Yuan per ton. Lead dropped 0.3% at 16,665 Yuan. Nickel declined 0.3% at 122,210 Yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. Data/Events (GMT 0600 UK Halifax House Price MM, May 0645 France Reserve Assets May 0700 EU QQ GDP Revised, YY Q1 12:00 UJS Non Farm Payrolls Unemployment Rate Average Earnings May ($1 = 7,1808 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and Editing by Janane Vekatraman; Reporting by Hongmei Li)
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US Senate Republicans propose eliminating fines on automakers for fuel efficiency
The U.S. Senate Republicans proposed Thursday eliminating fines for failing to meet Corporate average fuel economy rules as part a tax bill that would affect a broad range of industries. This is the latest step to make it easier for automakers build gas-powered cars. In 2018, Chrysler's parent company Stellantis, which is owned by Chrysler, paid nearly $400 million in penalties between 2016 and 2019. GM paid $128.2 millions in penalties between 2016 and 2017. The proposal makes the emission credits Tesla sells less valuable, as competitors won't be required to pay Tesla for meeting requirements. According to the lawmakers, automakers would save $200 million. GM and Chrysler didn't immediately respond. The U.S. House Republicans pursue similar goals, but in a different way. Last month, they proposed to repeal planned increases in fuel economy standards as well as vehicle emission rules adopted by the Biden administration. The House bill also eliminates a $7500 tax credit on new electric vehicles. It imposes a $250 annual fee for EVs to cover road repair costs. And it phases out the EV battery production credits by 2028. Both chambers voted against California's historic plan to stop selling gasoline-only cars by 2035, which was adopted by 11 states that represent a third in the U.S. automobile market. This bill is currently waiting for the signature of U.S. president Donald Trump. Transportation Department will declare that the fuel economy regulations issued by Biden went beyond government legal authority in including EVs. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced last year that it would increase fuel economy standards to an average of 50,4 miles per gallon (4.67 litris per 100km) by 2031. This is up from 39.1mpg for light duty vehicles. The warning warned that the auto industry would face fines totaling $1.83 billion by 2031.
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Nippon Steel and US seek 8-day break in litigation to resolve concerns
Nippon Steel, the Trump Administration and a U.S. court of appeals on Thursday requested an extension to their eight-day pause to allow them to negotiate a deal that would allow the Japanese company to purchase U.S. Steel at $14.9 billion. The court will likely approve the extension of the pause granted by the U.S. president Donald Trump on April 7, when he ordered a second review of national security of the tie up. This pause was due to expire on Friday, June 5. In their filing, the companies and government stated that "a continued abeyance was warranted due to... the ongoing attempts to reach a solution that would fully settle petitioners' claims." Investors who have been following the bumpy road of the deal since its announcement in December 2023 will be pleased to hear that the companies and government are close to a deal. Last year, both former President Joe Biden, and Trump, asserted that U.S. Steel must remain American-owned. They were trying to woo Pennsylvania voters in advance of the presidential election 2024, where U.S. Steel is headquartered. Biden blocked this deal in January, citing national security concerns. This led to lawsuits from the companies who claimed that the review of their national security was biased. The Biden White House denied the claim. Steel companies saw an opportunity with the Trump administration. The Trump administration began on January 20, and they sought to pause the litigation in order to begin a 45-day review of national security in April. Trump's public remarks, which ranged from welcoming a "simple investment" by the Japanese company in U.S. Steel to floating a minority stake Nippon Steel created confusion. Trump praised an "agreement", between Nippon Steel & U.S. Steel, at a Friday political rally. However, he did not approve the merger of these two companies. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates; Alexandra Alper)
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UK bans bonuses for Thames Water and 5 other companies for pollution failures
In its latest attempt to improve the poor environmental record of the water industry, Britain has banned Thames Water from paying bonuses to five other companies because they failed to combat pollution. The government said that the water industry is in England and Wales broken. Thames Water has been at the center of a scandal following years of underinvestment that resulted sewage spills while they continued to make profit and pay executive bonuses. A new law that takes effect Friday will prevent Thames Water and Yorkshire Water from paying bonuses to their executives for the April-end year. Thames Water announced in May that it would stop a bonus program after ministers raised objections. Seven major pollution incidents are under investigation by the company, which is defined as a sewage leak that kills large numbers of fish, is long-lasting or widespread. The other companies, however, are only being investigated over one. Wessex Water was convicted for one. Thames, Britain's largest supplier, failed to meet the financial resilience standards. It is trying new investments to avoid collapse. In a Thursday statement, Environment Minister Steve Reed stated that "water company bosses should, like everyone else, only receive bonuses if their companies have performed well. They shouldn't get them if the water pollution is not addressed." The government reported that water companies paid 7.6 million pounds to executives in bonuses last year. It said that only Northumbrian Water and Severn Trent, as well as South West Water, are eligible to receive bonuses in this year. Ofwat, the regulator, will monitor companies to make sure they don't increase salaries as a response to the ban on bonuses. They will also be able fine and clawback companies who break the rules. The government is interested in a wholesale sector reform on a longer-term basis. A report released on Tuesday called for smarter and stronger regulation.
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Minister Carney of Canada says that Trump and Carney have direct contact regarding tariffs.
Melanie Joly, Canada's Minister of Industry, said that the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is in direct contact with U.S. president Donald Trump as Ottawa tries to convince Washington to lower tariffs. She told reporters, "We're in a trade conflict and it is normal that there are diplomatic negotiations going on at the same time as the trade war. That's why Prime Minister Carney, and President Trump, talk to eachother." The Globe and Mail reported that the U.S. ambassador to Canada had said earlier that the two leaders held secret direct talks in order to develop a framework of a security and trade deal. This week, Trump doubled tariffs for imports of aluminum and steel to 50%. This move could hurt Canada as it is the biggest seller of metals in the U.S. Carney stated on Wednesday that Canada is "preparing reprisals" if the negotiations fail. Pete Hoekstra is the U.S. Ambassador to Canada. He told The Globe that the two sides are "laying out the parameters" of a possible deal. This could include boosting U.S. auto content, improving U.S. accessibility to Canadian critical minerals, and ensuring Canada plays a larger role in the Arctic. He also said that the talks would include increased spending on defense, energy, border safety, steel, aluminum, and stopping the smuggling fentanyl. Carney's Office declined to comment. An official from the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa wrote an email saying that "both the Prime Minister and President, or members of both teams, have publicly acknowledged there are ongoing discussions". Unifor, Canada's largest private-sector union, called on Carney on Wednesday to take immediate action. (Reporting from David Ljunggren, Ottawa; Anusha Shah, Bengaluru. Editing by Leslie Adler & Sandra Maler.
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IAEA team in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia claims it heard repeated gunshots
The U.N. nuclear watchdog reported on Thursday that international monitors heard gunfire at the Russian-owned Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine. It appeared to be directed at drones which were reportedly attacking the training centre at the plant. In the first weeks before Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian forces captured the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe’s largest facility with six reactors. Since then, both sides have accused each other of attacking and threatening nuclear safety the Zaporizhzhia plant. IAEA monitors reported hearing five explosions, preceded each by gunfire between 11:15 a.m. to 13:45 pm local time. The statement did not mention the origins of the drones, and there was no damage reported to the center. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi stated that drones flying near nuclear power plants can threaten their safety and security with potential serious consequences. As I've said repeatedly throughout the war, these incidents must cease immediately. In the statement, it said that this was the fourth time in the past year that drones had reportedly targeted the training centre located outside the perimeter of the site. The Russian management of the plant had said earlier that Ukrainian drones landed on top of the training centre in a "yet again attack" against the facility. There were no injuries or damages reported. With all reactors shut down, the Zaporizhzhia plant produces no electricity. It produced one-fifth the electricity of Ukraine before the war. Grossi said last week that although Russia "never concealed the fact" it wanted to restart its plant, it could not do so soon due to a lack of water for cooling as well as a stable supply of electricity. Reporting by Urvi dugar Editing by Alexandra Hudson Ron Popeski Chizu Nomiyama
Europe's auto part suppliers suspend production due to China's restrictions on rare earths
As concerns grow about the impact of China's new restrictions on mineral exports, some European auto part plants have suspended production. BMW has also warned that its supply network is affected by a shortage of rare earths.
China's April decision to suspend the export of rare earths, magnets, and other related products has disrupted supply chains for automakers, aerospace companies, semiconductor firms, and military contractors all over the world. China is using this move to demonstrate its dominance in the mineral industry that is key to green energy and as leverage against the U.S. president Donald Trump. China produces 90% of all rare earths.
BMW, the German automaker, announced on Wednesday that a part of its supply network is affected by a shortage of rare earths but that its own factories are running normally.
The European auto supplier association CLEPA has warned that the shortage of rare earths is threatening manufacturing.
CLEPA said that only one quarter of the hundreds requests for export licences submitted by auto suppliers between April 1 and now have been granted. Some requests were rejected due to "highly formal" reasons, according to the association.
The warning did not name the companies, but it warned of future outages.
The process seems to differ from province to province, and IP-sensitive data has been requested in some cases, it stated. It added that if this was not done soon, then more plants could be affected as inventories run out in the coming weeks.
The curbs are not only a part of the broader package to retaliate against Washington's trade tariffs but they apply worldwide and are causing concern among business executives all over the world.
German and U.S. automobile manufacturers have complained about China's restrictions threatening production. This follows a similar complaint from an Indian electric vehicle maker last week.
Many people are lobbying for their governments to come up with a quick fix and scrambling to look for alternatives.
In an email, Wolfgang Weber said that some companies have only enough supplies to last for a few months or weeks.
He said that companies in China feel left out by the politicians, and they are looking to solve their problems on their own.
Swedish Autoliv, the largest maker of airbags in the world, has said that its operations have not been affected. However, CEO Mikael Bratta said he had set up a special task force to deal with the situation.
RELIANCE ON CHINA
Many automakers, including BMW, General Motors and ZF have been researching or developing motors that contain low-to-zero rare earths in an effort to reduce their dependence on China. However few have scaled production to lower costs.
BMW's latest electric car generation uses a motor that is magnet-free, but smaller motors like those powering windshield wipers and window rollers still require rare earths.
Volkswagen, the German automaker, has been informed that only a small number of Chinese export licences for rare earths have been issued to subcontractors. The company does not currently see any shortages.
Trump has focused his criticism on China's slow pace in easing its crucial mineral export controls. He claims that Beijing has violated the truce agreed last month for tariffs to be rolled back and trade restrictions to be lifted.
Trump is trying to redefine trade relations with China, the United States' largest economic rival. He has imposed steep tariffs on imported goods worth billions of dollars in an effort to narrow a deficit and bring back lost manufacturing.
Trump had imposed tariffs of up to 145% on China, only to reduce them after the stock, bond and forex markets sank due the the broad nature of the measures. China responded by imposing its own tariffs, and using its dominant position in supply chains to convince Trump to back off.
This week, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet to discuss their differences. The export restrictions are likely to be a major topic of discussion.
In a post on social media, Trump stated that Xi was "VERY TOUGH AND EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO MAKE A DEAL", highlighting how fragile the deal is. (Reporting from Victoria Waldersee, Marie Mannes and Hakan Ersen; Additional reporting from Hakan in Frankfurt; Writing Josephine Mason; Editing Emelia Sithole Matarise).
(source: Reuters)