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Angola is more likely to borrow from IMF after the oil price drops, says Finance Minister

Angola is more likely to borrow from IMF after the oil price drops, says Finance Minister

Vera Daves de Sousa, the Finance Minister, said that the drop in crude oil prices increases the likelihood of Angola needing an IMF loan. The government is also conducting stress tests to assess the impact on finances.

After U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs, on April 2, the second-largest crude oil exporter in Sub-Saharan Africa based its budget for 2025 on an oil price per barrel of $70, Brent oil futures briefly fell below $60. This was their lowest level in over four years. The contract closed at $66.91 per barrel on Friday.

Daves de Sousa, in an interview at the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington on Friday, said: "We are rolling stress test scenarios."

De Sousa explained that a small drop in oil prices might trigger a temporary freeze on some expenditures, but a drop of say, $45 would require an additional budget.

She said that the government is working to improve tax administration, increase enforcement of property taxes and mitigate the effect of lower oil prices.

BOND PRICE DECLINES

Many smaller and riskier emerging countries, including Angola have felt the impact of recent volatility in fixed income markets, particularly U.S. Treasuries.

Angola's dollar-bonds were also hammered by investors who sold risky assets after U.S. Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on trade.

The yield on the 2049 maturity has increased to 13% from 12% prior to the U.S. Tariffs. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices.

The bond was quoted on Monday at 70.87 U.S. dollars per cent. A level lower than 70 is usually a sign that a nation may have difficulty borrowing. Last week, the bonds rose on hopes that the tariffs standoff would be resolved.

Angola was required to pay $200 million to JPMorgan earlier this month as a margin for its $1 billion total-return swap, a loan that the lender issued in December and which was backed by dollar bonds of the country.

JPMorgan didn't respond to a comment request immediately.

De Sousa stated that she is in discussions with JPMorgan about measures to be taken to avoid a margin call. She said that neither investors nor rating agencies have expressed concern about the payment.

She said that there were no negative connotations. Instead, they were surprised at how quickly we had been able to raise such a large amount of money. The government is currently examining the possibility of requesting an IMF financing program.

De Sousa, when asked about Chinese loans backed with oil, said that the government would have to pay another $8 billion. It expected to be able do so by 2028, rather than 2030-2031 as it had previously predicted.

Angola is also borrowing more money, mainly from China's EXIM Bank, but this money was not secured by collateral, it was concessional, and earmarked to specific projects, such as improving internet capability in rural areas, or improving education.

De Sousa stated that Angola would love to tap into international capital markets once again, but does not plan to do so for the time being.

We want to go on the market but with the way things are going, this isn't the right time. We will keep an eye on it to make sure we are prepared for the next time.

De Sousa said that officials from the Trump administration had confirmed in Washington, in meetings with the public, their commitment to fund the Lobito Rail Corridor without specifying an amount. The project is designed to transport minerals from central Africa's copperbelt into the West. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao, Sharon Singleton and Paul Simao; Additional reporting in Nairobi by Duncan Miriri)

(source: Reuters)