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Ferrexpo's Pellet Production Drops 26% after Ukraine stops VAT Refund
Ferrexpo, a Ukrainian miner with a focus on iron ore production, reported a 26 percent drop in its first quarter iron ore pellet output Monday. The suspension of VAT refunds forced the company to reduce operations and cut back liquidity. The shares of the London-listed firm fell by 8.3% in early trading to 43.9 pence, amid a global stock market crash following the U.S.'s drastic tariffs. Interim Executive Chairman Lucio Genovese stated that the environment in which they operate has become more challenging. He cited lower funds as well as "significant" measures to cut costs across the company. The miner reported that Ukrainian tax authorities had suspended the VAT refund of 512.9 million Hryvnias (12.5 million dollars) because sanctions were imposed on its largest shareholder, who was accused by authorities of embezzlement. Ferrexpo said that the sanctions had not been imposed on them or their units. Genovese said, "We will continue to lobby the Ukrainian government and all other interested parties to reinstate the VAT refund." Ferrexpo reported that it was only able to operate one pellet line in the quarter. This led to a fall in production from 1.81 to 1.35 millions metric tons. The total commercial production, including iron ore as well, increased by 20% on a quarterly basis to 2,13 million tonnes. This is the highest quarterly output ever since the start of the Ukraine war. The company stated that this was not reflected in improved earnings because of high input costs (particularly imported electricity) and the deterioration of iron ore prices.
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Andy Home: Trump, tariffs, and tin.
The LME Base Metals Complex got a sneak preview of what to expect. The threat of similar tariffs on copper caused a transatlantic price gap that was unprecedented. The micro tariff turmoil is now accompanied by macro tariff turmoil, as the markets are frightened at the prospect of a full blown trade war. This week, the London Metal Exchange index of base metals fell 6% as reciprocal tariffs became a reality. Only one metal was spared the tariff tsunami. Tin continues to perform better than the rest of LME's pack, boosted by its own supply-chain chaos. Shocks Rock Tin - Supply LME's three-month tin increased by 25% in the first quarter 2025, surpassing gold's incredible run. The tin market has been on a roller coaster ride due to a series of supply shocks. After 18 months, the market fell on the news that the giant Man Maw mine in Myanmar was to restart. Then the market rebounded when Alphamin Resources announced they were closing their Bisie mine in Congo due the the escalating violence in the eastern part of the country. Tin has risen even more after the devastating earthquake in Myanmar that casts new doubts on Man Maw’s return. Investors are rushing to get in on the action. The long positions of funds have reached record highs. The LME stock market is slipping and the time-spreads are tightening. This adds to the volatile mix. The bulls should also note that China has a plentiful supply of tin. Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a 47% rise in stocks this year, and the 9,872 metric ton stock is at its highest level since September. COPPER GAP - HOW TO IDENTIFY IT Since February, when Trump launched a national-security investigation into copper imports, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on the copper trading market. Arbitrage has been played out between the CME U.S. Customs-cleared Price and the LME Global Price. The market has tried to guess when and how much copper tariffs would be implemented. The CME's record premium over LME Copper has led to a massive movement of metal into the United States. It remains to be determined how much metal makes it through U.S. Customs before tariffs become effective. CME prices that were at record highs and the physical market disruption initially revived bullish sentiments. However, LME copper is now below $9,000 per ton as concerns grow over the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs on global manufacturing. ALUMINIUM PREMIUM ACTION Tariff trades have been reflected in premiums for regional markets. Last month, the U.S. Midwest Premium widened to over $900 per ton above the LME Basis Price as the market priced the increase in U.S. Import Tariffs from 10% up to 25%. The European premiums have dropped sharply in contrast to the U.S., suggesting that physical metal has already been diverted. Analysts were expecting high aluminium prices at the beginning of the year, but the market is now generating mixed signals. Like copper, it has also been affected by reciprocal tariffs. NICKEL ATTENDS INDONESIA Nickel spent the first quarter of 2025 stuck in a wide range between $15,000 and $17,000 per ton. As overproduction in Indonesia floods the refined nickel chain, the price of nickel has fallen. From 11% in 2024, the amount of Chinese Nickel stored at the LME has increased to over 50%. This metal is a product of Indonesian raw material that was processed in China. Indonesia is now producing its own refined metal which can also be found in LME sheds. Even Indonesian operators feel the pinch of the nickel price, which is so low. However, until Indonesia limits its production growth nickel will remain in oversupply. The question is whether or not the Indonesian flood will continue to wash down into the Class II lower-grade segment of the Nickel market. All depends on Indonesian margins. Heavy Stocks Weigh on Heavy Metal Talking about high stock prices. Last month, someone cancelled 120,000 tons LME lead stock. However, there was no response from the market in terms of price or time spreads. Nobody thinks that the physical metal market is short of this much metal. Lead is experiencing the type of LME warehouse arbitrage which comes with an oversupply and elevated stock levels. These stocks have grown from 21,500 to 331,000 tonnes at the beginning of 2023. Lead's price has held well despite the overhang of inventory, but this could be because lead is still in better condition than zinc. ZINC MINE REBOUND Zinc has consistently outperformed the LME group since the beginning of the year, despite the fact that exchange stocks have been falling steadily. The market seems to be more interested in the zinc raw material narrative than its nuanced refine metal dynamics. In 2024, the mined zinc production will fall by 2.8% on an annual basis. The raw materials supply chain will tighten to the point where smelter charges are negative in the second part of the year. In 2025, restarts and new mining are expected to produce a significant recovery. This new wave of mining supply appears to be gaining momentum. The smelter treatment charge, which had fallen to zero in 2024 due to a lack of mined concentrates, has now risen to $35 per ton. The demand for zinc was flat last year. With little hope of a recovery within the global construction sector, which is a major use of zinc, a higher output from mining will likely lead to an oversupply on the refined metals market. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
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China's central banks purchases gold for the fifth consecutive month in March
Official data released by the People's Bank of China on Monday showed that China's central banks added gold to their reserves for the fifth consecutive month. China's gold reserves increased to 73.7 million fine troy-ounces by the end March from 73.61 millions ounces in February. Gold reserves in the United States were valued at $229.6 Billion at the end last month. This is up from $208,64 Billion at the end February. Yeap Jun-Rong, IG's market strategist, said that "strong central bank demand for Gold has been an important reason behind the gold price's rally." With rising global trade tensions and central banks' efforts to diversify reserves by increasing their gold holdings, this trend could continue in the future. The gold price has reached record levels this year, largely due to the uncertainty around tariffs, interest rate reductions, geopolitical conflict, and central bank purchases. China, the largest metals consumer in the world, responded to the U.S. tariffs that Trump imposed with a series of countermeasures on Friday. This intensified the trade war between two of the biggest economies. Central banks will likely continue to support gold's spectacular rally this year, with purchases aimed at diversifying their reserves away from dollars due to the risks posed by Donald Trump's policies. The PBOC halted their 18-month gold buying spree in May 2024. This had a significant impact on the Chinese investor's demand. The central bank began buying gold again in November 2024. Reporting by Anushree Mukerjee, in Bengaluru; Qiaoyi Li and Yukun Zhu in Beijing, with editing by Kim Coghill, Janane Venkatraman and Janane Venkatraman.
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Australian heavy rare Earths miners protest China export controls
Australian listed miners of heavy-rare earths rallied Monday, despite major selloffs on other markets. They were betting that Western governments would redouble their efforts to create a separate supply after China, the top producer, imposed export controls. Shares in Lynas, the top rare earths producer in the world outside China, rose 5%, as did Meteoric Resources which has a Brazil project. Meanwhile, shares in Australia's heavy rare earths developer Northern Minerals soared by 9.5%. China placed export restrictions for rare earth elements as part of a sweeping response to U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs. This has resulted in a reduction of the supply of minerals to Western countries, which are used to manufacture weapons, electronic devices, and consumer goods. The group of rare earths consists of 17 elements. Heavy rare earths have higher atomic masses, such as dysprosium, yttrium and others. These are less abundant but more valuable. The news from China highlighted Lynas’s strategic capabilities, which are underpriced on the market at present," said Barrenjoey Analyst Dan Morgan. China produces 90% of rare earths in the world, and export restrictions affect all countries, including the U.S. Analysts said that the export restrictions affect not only minerals, but also magnets and finished products. Lynas stated that it closely monitored global developments while it moved forward with its production plan. A spokesperson stated, "We are pleased to announce that our new heavy-rare earth separation circuit will be commissioned in this quarter." Lynas will be able to meet the demand for both heavy and light rare earths materials once production begins. Meteoric Resources announced in a Monday filing that it plans to produce six elements under export controls on its Caldeira Project, which is expected to be operational during the second half 2027. Separately Australia's Premier Anthony Albanese who faces a May 3, 2019 election raised the possibility of creating national stockpiles for critical minerals. This would likely include rare earths. Albanese stated last week that a Labor Government would establish a Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve. I will be able to elaborate on this. Analysts said that they were waiting to hear more details, as it is usually consumers who stockpile inventory in the event of a supply chain disruption, not producers. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed, Kate Mayberry, and Kirsty Wantham in Sydney)
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Russell: Imports from Asia in Q1 were lower than expected, indicating a slump in demand for crude oil.
Crude oil prices have fallen in response to President Donald Trump's disruption of global trade. The shock of Trump's new tariffs masks a weakness that existed in demand, which was reflected in soft imports during the first quarter of the year in Asia, where crude oil is the most popularly purchased region in the world. According to LSEG Oil Research, Asia imported 26.44 millions barrels of crude per day in the first quarter. This is down from 27.08million bpd in the same period of 2024. The drop in imports is in contrast to the forecasts of groups like the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency, which predict that Asia will be the leading region for global oil demand in 2025. There is one silver lining to Asia's first-quarter imports. They did show signs that they were recovering in March. According to LSEG, the region imported 27,39 million bpd during March. This is up from 25,44 million bpd for February, and in line with 27.33 millions bpd of March last year. China, the largest crude importer in the world, led the recovery with seaborne arrivals at 10,14 million bpd. This was the highest level for three months. The addition of pipeline imports brings China's total crude oil arrivals to 11,04 million bpd in March, which is higher than the 10.42 millions bpd during the first two months, but below the 11.6million bpd registered for March 2024. Why did China and the rest of Asia import more crude oil in March 2025 than they did in the first two month of 2025? Refiners are restocking their inventories following planned maintenance, and before the seasonal increase in demand that occurs as the Northern Hemisphere's winter ends. Price is the key The most important factor, however, was probably the price. Most of the cargoes arriving in March were arranged during a period when crude oil prices worldwide were on a downward trend. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, reached a six-month peak of $82.63 per barrel on January 15 before beginning a decline to a low price of $68.33 on March 5. The trend in lower prices was likely to have prompted refiners, particularly since Chinese refiners may have built up some stocks during the first two months. According to calculations based off official data, China's refiners have processed about 30,000 barrels of crude per day more than was available in January and February. China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of its strategic and commercial stockspiles. However, an estimate can still be made by subtracting the amount processed from the total crude available through imports and domestic production. The dynamics of drawing down inventories will likely reverse in March, as lower crude encourages more purchasing. Oil markets are wondering if the higher imports seen in Asia in March will continue, given that crude oil prices have rallied since their low in early March until April 2, when Trump announced his global tariff war. Brent reached $75.47 per barrel on April 2. However, even if Asian buyers were easing up on purchases, the impact will be seen in imports only in May and/or June. Will the drop in oil prices since last week lead to higher imports from Asia starting in June? Brent fell to $63.01 per barrel during early Asian trade on Monday. This is the lowest price in over four years. It has also lost 16.5% from its high, before Trump announced blanket tariffs against virtually all countries, except Russia. The sharp fall in oil prices was also a result of the OPEC+ exporters' decision to increase production by a greater than expected 411,000 bpd during May. The main concern is the impact that tariffs will have on the global economy and, therefore, fuel consumption. Even a sharply reduced price may not be sufficient to increase Asian demand for crude oil in the coming months. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Tata Motors, India's luxury arm JLR, drops 10% after halting exports to the US
Tata Motors shares in India fell 10% on Monday. It was their worst day for over three years. Jaguar Land Rover, its luxury car division, halted exports to the U.S. of British-made vehicles after President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff went into effect. Since Trump announced import duties on 26 March, the stock has fallen 22%. The benchmark Nifty 50 index has fallen 6.3% in that time, with a 4% drop on the day. Data from the industry body SMMT show that the United States is second in the world for importing British cars, after the European Union. With a share of nearly 20%, the United States has surpassed the European Union as the largest importer. The U.S. is one of JLR’s only growth markets and accounts for over a quarter (25%) of global sales of Range Rover Sports and Defenders, among other models. JLR sales account for two thirds of Tata Motors revenue, and a large part of their profit and cash flow. Tata Motors has been one of the worst performers among auto stocks ever since tariffs were announced. Its 22% decline is more than twice the 10% drop that the auto index as a whole experienced. The other 15 automakers, besides Tata do not export cars to the U.S. The index does include many component manufacturers that are indirectly exposed, like Bharat Forge which supplies Tesla. Bharat Forge shares also fell by about 10% in value on the same day. In a note published last week, the brokerage CLSA stated that it expected a drop of 14% in JLR's total volumes for the fiscal year ending March 2026. This drop will be led by a drop of 26% in U.S. Sales due to tariffs. According to LSEG data, analysts continue to rate Tata's shares "buy", similar to their Indian peers. (Reporting by Nandan Mandayam in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza)
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China metals fall after trade war retaliation, London metals recover on arbitrage trading
The price of base metals in China fell on Monday due to escalating concerns about trade wars and recession. However, most London metal prices rose on the back of arbitrage trading following the opening of Asian markets, increasing liquidity. As of 0338 GMT the most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), dropped 6.0%, to 74440 yuan a metric ton, hovering at its lowest level for over three months, since January 3. Metals traders expressed concern about a trade war that could impede global economic growth. China, the world's largest consumer of metals, retaliated on Friday by imposing additional tariffs of 34% on all U.S. products from April 10 after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 34% on most Chinese items as part his sweeping tariff program. Arbitrage trading has driven the price of copper, as well as most other metals on the London Metal Exchange, to reverse their downward trend after the SHFE opened. Arbitrage traders are able to trade both on SHFE and LME when the SHFE opens. They can profit from the difference in price. They increase market liquidity which, in turn, pushes LME prices higher. The traders asked for anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak with the media. Arbitrage trading occurs when traders purchase metal at a lower price and sell it at a higher one, profiting off the difference in prices. SHFE aluminium fell 2.9% to 19.835 yuan per ton. Zinc fell 1.6% to 22.75 yuan. Lead fell 1.7% at 16,910, nickel fell 5.5% to 121.180 yuan. Tin fell 6.0% to 275,420 yuan. Other metals include LME aluminium, which rose 1.6%, to $2.416.5 per ton. Lead rose 0.5%, to $1.915, Zinc rose 1.6%, to $2.698.5. Tin was down by 1.3%, at $34,925, and Nickel was down by 0.2%, at $14.735 per ton.
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The side effects of the morning bid in Europe-Tariff medicines
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The Asian stock markets are once again in a rout as President Trump refuses to back down from his tariff plans, despite the conflagration of wealth that has engulfed equity markets. Investors thought that the threat of losing trillions of dollar would cause Trump to reconsider or shake his aides. But he appears to believe this harsh medicine is going help him in the end. Bill Ackman, a billionaire fund manager who supported Trump's presidential run, said the tariffs would be an "economic winter" for the entire world. China's blue chips fell almost 7% and the Nikkei index lost another 6%, despite the talk of Beijing stepping in to help with stimulus measures. Trump's high tariffs have caused a drop of almost 10% in Taiwan's stock market after a long break. Trump's levies are threatening the supply chains on which so many businesses rely. Taiwan's policymakers took action to stop short selling, and circuit breakers in many markets were tripped. Dealers became increasingly worried that the market losses would force investors into selling profitable assets to cover margin calls. This could lead to a fire sale. JPMorgan sees 60% probability of U.S. recession, and Fed rate reductions from June until next January. The funds rate will be around 3%. The futures markets also moved in the same direction, with the December Fed Funds contract rising by an astounding 30 basis points this morning before reducing it to 16 ticks. The markets even suggest that the Fed may ease up to May, despite Powell's repeated statement last week that it was not in a hurry to act. It's understandable that he is hesitant, given the fact that tariffs will increase prices for everything from food to cars. The U.S. consumer price report for March this week is unlikely to reflect the full impact of tariffs, but it won't be long. Trump said that many countries are looking for deals to ease tariff pain. The "reciprocal rates" chosen by the U.S. were higher than levies imposed in most other countries, which makes it difficult for them to make deals that are "beautiful". China is ready to fight in part because they see an opportunity to replace the U.S. as the trusted trade partner. When the trade ministers of the region meet on Monday, there could be further hints about EU reprisals. This is all happening as U.S. earnings are due to begin with major banks this Friday. It will take a brave CEO to express anything other than caution regarding the outlook for sales and profits. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact Sentix investor's confidence, German industrial production - Appearances of ECB Board member Piero Cilpollone, and Fed Governor Kugler
Oil settles up on Mideast tension, gains suppressed as rate of interest cuts pushed back
Oil settled greater on Wednesday as continuous tensions in the Middle East lent support to rates, but news that rates of interest cuts might start as late as December capped gains, following the Federal Reserve's statement concluding its twoday conference.
Brent unrefined futures settled 68 cents, or 0.83%,. higher at $82.60 a barrel, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate. ( WTI) crude futures up 60 cents, or 0.77%, to $78.50.
Prices had reduced more than 2% last week after OPEC and its. allies said they would phase out output cuts starting from. October.
Palestinian militant group Hamas has proposed various. changes, some unfeasible, to a U.S.-backed proposal for a. ceasefire with Israel in Gaza, U.S. Secretary of State Antony. Blinken stated on Wednesday, adding that conciliators were determined. to close the spaces.
At a press conference with Qatar's prime minister in Doha,. Blinken said a few of the counter-proposals from Hamas, which has. ruled Gaza given that 2007, had sought to change terms that it had. accepted in previous talks.
The war has yet to materially impact international oil supply, but. financiers have actually priced in the danger, improving unrefined futures. costs.
Meanwhile, financiers were left disappointed after the. Federal Reserve pushed out the start of rate cuts to maybe as. late as December, with authorities predicting just a single. quarter-percentage-point decrease for the year amidst increasing. quotes for what it will require to keep inflation in check.
U.S. consumer rate information, published on Wednesday, had. strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Fed. Chair Jerome Powell will hold an interview later on. Wednesday.
It will be interesting to see what Powell states, I don't. think there is any doubt that they will leave rates where they. are, stated Ben McMillan, a fund manager for IDX Advisors.
Higher borrowing costs tend to moisten economic development, and. could, by extension, limit oil demand.
The marketplace is holding its breath today, said Tim. Snyder, economist at Matador Economics.
If Powell talks outside of what the Fed publishes, there. could be a little discord within the policy committee regarding. their instructions on rates of interest, Snyder included.
Elsewhere, European Reserve Bank Vice President Luis de. Guindos stated the ECB should move very gradually in lowering. interest rates, because of substantial uncertainty over the inflation. outlook.
U.S. unrefined stocks posted a surprise build last week, up by. 3.7 million barrels to 459.7 million barrels, compared to. expectations of a 1 million barrel-draw, the Energy Info. Administration (EIA) stated on Wednesday.
Gasoline stocks increased more than expected, up by 2.6 million. barrels to 233.5 million barrels, the EIA stated, compared with. analysts' expectations in a survey for a 900,000-barrel. develop.?
However, longer term, the EIA, the International Energy. Agency (IEA) and the Company of the Petroleum Exporting. Nations this week upgraded their views on the worldwide oil. demand-supply balance for 2024, forecasting decreases in worldwide. oil inventories.
Their reports suggest restricted disadvantage for costs in the. 2nd half of the year, stated Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM,. with the IEA seeing a larger depletion in stocks than the. other 2.
(source: Reuters)