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OPEC? surprise set off record hedge fund oil sales: Kemp

Portfolio financiers sold record volumes of petroleum recently after OPEC? shocked the market by announcing strategies to increase production beginning with the fourth quarter of 2024.

Hedge funds and other cash managers sold the equivalent of 194 million barrels in the 6 most important futures and choices agreements over the seven days ending on June 4.

Fund sales were the fastest for any week because at least 2013 when the U.S. Product Futures Trading Commission and ICE Futures Europe started releasing data in the current format.

Sales were more than three basic discrepancies far from the typical weekly change, suggesting how stunned investors were by the announcement to raise production.

Financiers offered Brent (-102 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-53 million), European gas oil (-17 million), U.S. diesel ( -15 million) and U.S. fuel (-6 million).

Sales of crude in general and Brent in particular were also the fastest on record as traders concluded the crude market would be easily through the remainder of the year and into 2025.

But heavy selling of refined fuel agreements suggests financiers were also reacting to signs of lukewarm intake and swelling stocks of gasoline and diesel.

Financiers had actually become bearish or extremely bearish about all components of the petroleum complex.

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

Overall petroleum positions were slashed to 208 million barrels (first percentile for all weeks because 2013) the most affordable since a single week in December 2023 and before that January 2016.

Brent positions were cut to their third-lowest level on record at simply 46 million barrels, down from 335 million just 7 weeks earlier.

Intense hedge fund selling assisted push front-month Brent futures costs down to their least expensive level for four months on June 4.

In subsequent speeches as well as an online rundown to oil analysts, OPEC? officials have restated that the scheduled increase can be paused or reversed based on market conditions.

The re-emphasis on the contingent nature of the prepared increase appears to have actually steadied the market with costs rising a little.

However the group's current conference will go on record as a significant OPEC? surprise-- even if it did not end up as ministers planned.

U.S. NATURAL GAS

Hedge funds turned a little more careful about the outlook for U.S. gas prices last week after inventories remained stubbornly high and took some of the recent bullishness out of the marketplace.

Funds offered the equivalent of 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major futures and choices contracts connected to gas prices at Henry Center in Louisiana over the 7 days ending on June 4.

It was the very first net sale for five weeks as funds added more bearish brief positions (114 bcf) than new longs (24 bcf).

Nevertheless, the resulting net long position of 791 bcf ( 52nd percentile for all weeks given that 2010) remained well above the current net short of 1,675 bcf (3rd percentile) in mid-February.

Working inventories were the second-highest on record for the time of year on May 31 and 612 bcf (+27% or 1.45 standard discrepancies) above the prior 10-year seasonal average.

After swelling through much of the winter of 2023/24, the surplus has actually not increased given that mid-March, hearting bullish investors, however it has actually not yet narrowed either, injecting an aspect of care.

Related columns:

- OPEC? switches method to safeguard market share (June 4, 2024)

- U.S. oil futures draw renewed interest from hedge funds

(source: Reuters)