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What are Putin's top difficulties in brand-new six-year term?

Vladimir Putin has won 6 more years in the Kremlin with a. landslide success in an election where he faced no severe. competition. Looking ahead, he deals with essential difficulties.

UKRAINE WAR

Obstacle: whether to escalate now and when to stop. Russia controls nearly a fifth of Ukraine, hardly altered because. late 2022. Putin has not specified territorial objectives but his ally. Dmitry Medvedev said last month that Russia aimed to bite off. far more of Ukraine, consisting of Odesa and eventually Kyiv. - Putin might simply let the war grind on, determining that time. is on his side and awaiting the result of the U.S. election in. November. Russia made its very first advance in nine months by. recording the town of Avdiivka in February and Putin has said it. will push even more. Ukraine is running low on ammunition as a. big U.S. help package has actually been held up in Congress, and Russia. has been motivated by indications of discord and faltering resolve in. the West.

- Putin could intensify by starting a brand-new military. mobilisation, on top of the call-up of 300,000 males he purchased in. September 2022. That first wave was out of favor and chaotic,. triggering hundreds of countless Russians to leave abroad. The. Kremlin has actually consistently stated there is no need for a repeat. - Putin might look for a worked out outcome. Russia has actually said this. would need to be on its terms, leaving it in control of caught. Ukrainian territory, which Kyiv has stated it will never ever accept. specifically reported last month that Putin had signalled. to Washington that he was prepared to concur a ceasefire that would. freeze the war at existing lines. Washington rejected this after. contacts in between intermediaries.

TRADE AND ENERGY

Challenge: re-routing trade to blunt Western sanctions

Russia has actually lost the majority of its rewarding European energy market. since of sanctions and the blowing-up of the Nord Stream gas. pipelines. Development on three significant jobs will be a gauge of. his success in rotating Russian trade eastwards:. - A brand-new gas hub in Turkey to make it possible for Russia to reroute its gas. exports. - A brand-new pipeline, the Power of Siberia 2, to bring another 50. billion cubic metres a year of Russian gas to China via Mongolia. - A growth of the Northern Sea Route, made possible by the. melting of Arctic sea ice, to link Murmansk near Russia's border. with Norway to the Bering Strait near Alaska.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Difficulty: setting brand-new security framework with U.S. or. getting in a brand-new arms race. The New START treaty that caps the number of strategic nuclear. warheads that Russia and the United States can release is because of. expire in February 2026. If it lapses, both sides might then. expand their arsenals without limitations. Putin has actually said Russia must. increase its return on defence costs to avoid the U.S. from. stressful it in the kind of arms race that sapped the Soviet. Union throughout the Cold War. He said Russia was continuing to. develop several brand-new weapons systems, while denying U.S. assertions that he plans to release nuclear weapons in area. Putin has recommended that Russia might resume nuclear screening,. however just if the U.S. does so first. Russia states it is all set to. participate in tactical dialogue with the U.S. but that this must. consist of all issues impacting its security, including Ukraine.

DOMESTIC ECONOMY

Difficulties: inflation, labour lacks, demographics. The economy grew 4.6% year-on-year in January, thanks to a. enormous increase in military production, but labour shortages. and low performance posture problems. Defence and security comprise. about 40% of the spending plan, squeezing other areas like education. and health. Salaries are increasing, especially in areas where. defence markets are concentrated. Putin has actually failed to. deliver on a 2018 pledge to accomplish a decisive development. in living standards, and real incomes overall have actually stagnated for. the past years. Near-term top priorities are to cut inflation,. running at 7.6%, and to lower budgetary pressures. Putin has. indicated this will imply higher taxes for companies and wealthier. individuals. Further out, he wishes to raise life span and. boost the birth rate with steps to support households, but is. struggling to reverse Russia's long-term population decrease.

RENEWING THE ELITE

Difficulty: refreshing an aging group.

Putin will be 77 by the end of his new term - though still. When he was sworn in, more youthful than U.S. President Joe Biden. Some. leading figures in Putin's circle are older than he is,. consisting of FSB security chief Alexander Bortnikov (72 ), Security. Council head Nikolai Patrushev (72) and Foreign Minister Sergei. Lavrov (74 today). Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief. of Personnel Valery Gerasimov (both 68) have kept their tasks in spite of. intense criticism from some pro-war commentators over Russia's. military failings in Ukraine. Putin has long shown himself to be. hesitant to shock his team, and critics have accused him of. valuing commitment over skills.

More youthful figures to watch include parliament speaker. Vyacheslav Volodin (60 ), agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev. ( 46) and Putin's former bodyguard Alexei Dyumin (51 ), the. governor of Tula area. In a very first significant workers. modification, Boris Kovalchuk, 46, the son of Putin's business person. friend Yuri Kovalchuk, left his post as head of the Inter RAO. energy company this month after 15 years to join the. governmental administration, Vedomosti paper reported.

(source: Reuters)