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IEA: Russian oil production unaffected so far by US sanctions

The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its latest report on the oil market, said that Russian oil exports may be maintained if workarounds are found to the new U.S. sanction package, following a slight increase in Russian crude production last month.

The IEA reported that Russian crude oil production increased by 100,000 barrels per month (bpd), to 9,2 million bpd last month, despite the fact that its energy sector had been hit with extensive sanctions on January 10th.

The IEA stated that oil markets had shown resilience and adaptability to major challenges in the past, and it is not likely to change this time.

The Paris-based agency said in its previous monthly report that Washington's new sanctions package could disrupt Russian oil supply chain, but held off on changing its forecasts until it was clear what impact they would have.

The IEA said that the sanctions announcement pushed oil prices up $8 to five-month-highs by mid-January. However, those gains were almost reversed at the end of January due to growing concerns about the global economy, and the possible impact of emerging trade wars.

The IEA continues to forecast that non-OPEC+ supply will grow faster than global demand. The IEA predicts that non-OPEC+ oil production will increase by 1.4m bpd in this year. This is compared to a forecast for demand growth of 1.1m bpd, which was slightly higher than the previous forecast.

The IEA stated that China is still the main driver of global oil demand. Its petrochemical industry will be affected by the slowdown in China's demand for conventional transportation fuels.

In a sign that structural changes are reshaping Chinese demand for oil, the use of three of the most important fuels, gasoline, jet/kerosene, and gasoil, has declined slightly in 2024. Reporting by Robert Harvey in London and Alex Lawler Editing by David Goodman & Aidan Lewis

(source: Reuters)