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Gold prices rise as the markets evaluate Fed rate stance and Middle East situation
Investors weighed the decision of the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at the same level this month, as well as the rising tensions that are affecting the Middle East and have raised inflation concerns. The spot gold price was unchanged at $4,062.30 an ounce as of 0841 GMT. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery rose by 0.7% to $4,060.60. Kevin Warsh, the U.S. central bank's chief, pledged to keep inflation under control. After the decision, spot gold prices rose by about 2%. The U.S. Military said that it had struck dozens Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran in response to Tehran's firing of ballistic missiles at U.S. soldiers in?Jordan, on Wednesday. Brent crude prices rose by more than $1 per barrel on Thursday. The higher oil prices are keeping the market expecting a Fed rate hike, which does not help gold, according to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS. Staunovo said that to see gold rise, there must be an improvement in investment demand. This requires the market participants' expectations to be shifted towards rate reductions. The 'non-yielding' characteristic of bullion tends to reduce its appeal, despite it being a?hedge against inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a probability of about 65% that the Fed will raise rates at its September meeting. Investors now await June U.S. Data on Personal Consumption Expenditures is due at 1230 GMT. The World Gold Council reported that India also saw an increase in unofficial inflows of gold since the government raised import tariffs earlier this year. Silver spot fell 0.03%, to 57.62 dollars per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.4%, to 1,605.20. Palladium rose by 1.8%, to $1268.56.
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France, Spain, and Greece fight wildfires in Europe's heatwave
France, Spain, and Greece all faced major wildfires Thursday, as high temperatures, parched vegetation, and powerful winds continued a summer that saw deadly fires, massive evacuations, and mounting disruption throughout Europe. Spain battled a fire in the province of Castellon, while Greece fought fires on two fronts which killed three firefighters and forced residents and tourists to flee Crete. The wind can be so strong that you cannot stand it at times. "The flames were enormous, it was scary," said Chrissa GIOUKAK, a resident of Agia Galini on Crete's south coast, where tourists and locals sought shelter in an indoor gymnasium. EUROPE IS THE FASTEST WARMING Continent Emergency crews faced a summer of heatwaves, fires and a dry Europe. Wildfires are a record high in the EU, and they have already surpassed 2025's previous record. According to Climate Monitor, Thursday's temperatures in Europe showed that it was the continent farthest away from its historical norm. The average high temperature is expected to be 25 degrees Celsius (77.5 Fahrenheit), 3.6C higher than what was normal between 1961 and 1990. Authorities in southwest France said that the fires around Bordeaux did not spread over night, and the burned area remained at 42,000 ha. The local administration did not provide any further information, but said that two people had been arrested on suspicion of setting fires. French fires forced 220,000 people to flee their homes and forced holidaymakers and residents to leave. However, 60,000 of them have been allowed back. Officials said that thousands of businesses temporarily suspended their operations are gradually reopening. The conditions are expected to improve around Bordeaux, with a?possibility for thunderstorms, increased humidity, and temperatures lower than recent peaks. A heat alert remains in place in Gironde (the department in which Bordeaux is located), and the authorities have warned that the fires are not yet out. Meteo France's?latest bulletin warned on Wednesday that the greatest danger of wildfires is now in the Mediterranean and southeastern France. The number of wildfires in France has now exceeded any other year since 2006. GALE FORCE WINDS FAN FLAMES GREECE Two firefighters were killed after they became trapped in an ensuing fire in central Crete while driving between firefronts on Wednesday. A separate fire in Peloponnese caused the death of another. Residents and tourists from Krya Vrysi, and the surrounding villages were evacuated by sea or land as the wind blew the fire out. The situation is dire. Yiannis TARTARAKIS, the mayor of Agios Vassilios in a municipality which includes several villages affected by this disaster, said that it was tragic that two firefighters had died. Strong winds prevented the deployment of firefighting aircraft, said Tartarakis. Wind is one of the extreme weather phenomena that can be caused by intense heat from wildfires. New Fires as Spain Faces "EXTREME" Crisis Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez stated that the crisis facing the nation was "extreme", and at least 10 wildfires were causing concern. Sanchez said on Wednesday that the high temperatures, low humidities, and strong winds were all contributing to the fires. He said that, speaking from Mallorca, he had written to the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asking her to establish a new EU Wildfire-fighting Centre?for western Mediterranean on the Balearic Island. Authorities reported on Thursday that new wildfires had erupted amid the fourth heatwave this summer in the northwest Spanish provinces Zamora and Leon, while the fire in the eastern province of Castellon continued to spread. Three separate fires in north-central Leon have forced more than 300 people from their homes. Antonio Rodrigo told reporters in Castellon late on Wednesday night that the 82-kilometre-perimeter (51-miles) of the fire had been established, but it was not secure after flames destroyed more than 9,300 acres (23,000 hectares). Rodrigo said that the overnight operation, which involved 400 firefighters, was "critical" in determining whether the situation would be stabilized within 48 hours. The weather conditions were optimal, and efforts could continue without interruption until Thursday's heat.
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Israeli strikes kill four Palestinians, including two children in Gaza amid new ceasefire
Health officials reported that Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip killed at least four people on Thursday. Two of them were children. This occurred as'mediators' held new talks with Hamas to discuss full implementation of an American-brokered Gaza Peace Plan. A medic said that an Israeli airstrike in Khan Younis in the southern part of the enclave killed a woman and a girl aged eight. According to medics, in the Bureij Refugee Camp, located in central Gaza Strip an Israeli airstrike struck a house, killing an 18-month old child and wounding eight others. A Palestinian man riding a bicycle near a tent camp housing displaced families was targeted by an Israeli airstrike on Thursday. One person died and 10 were injured. The Israeli military claimed that the strikes were against Hamas militants without giving any further details. Gaza's health officials report that the latest deaths bring to more than 1,200 Palestinians killed by Israeli attacks, mainly civilians, since the ceasefire came into effect. Hamas doesn't usually reveal its losses. The ceasefire has stopped the full-scale combat but not Israel's near-daily strikes. Four Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza by militants during the same time period. CAIRO TALKS Hamas leaders met in Cairo with mediators from Egypt and Qatar, to discuss the implementation of the second stage of President Donald Trump’s Gaza Plan, as presented by the Board of Peace that oversees the plan's implementation. The plan included a massive increase in humanitarian assistance, a civilian Palestinian government, Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and an international force deployed to maintain security. Progress has been stalled for the past few months. Hamas' official stated that the group would be coming up with a "positive" and good response. However, he didn't say if the group agreed to disarm fully, which has been a major sticking point during the last four months. Hamas demands that Israel end its attacks on Gaza and withdraw its forces. Hamas sources said that the group would "confine and store" heavy arms?under a Palestinian authority,?and not give them to Israel. Hamas has not commented on this. Israel and the Board of Peace have not confirmed whether they will accept the new Hamas position or the fate of personal or light weapons. The Board of Peace has declined to comment immediately on the Cairo negotiations. Israel wants Hamas disarm and cede all power in Gaza. Hamas disbanded a de-facto Gaza government in the last month, but kept a "caretaker" body that provided vital services to residents. Israel controls approximately 64% of Gaza's tiny coastal strip, which was bombed into ruins during Israel's two year military offensive that followed the 2023 Hamas attacks on southern Israel. Hamas controls Gaza, where nearly all its 2 million residents live in a tiny sliver on the coast. They are mostly living in tents, or in damaged buildings, and face dire living conditions. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones, Kate Mayberry, and Nidal al Mughrabi)
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ArcelorMittal South Africa's losses increase as rescue talks continue
ArcelorMittal South Africa announced on Thursday that its?half-year loss had increased by a staggering?47%, as the 'business was weighed down by a sluggish steel price and a surge in steel imports mainly from China. The South African division of steelmaker ArcelorMittal reported a headline loss?1.489 billion Rand ($89.29 millions) for the six-month period ended June 30. The company had reported a loss of?1.014bn rand in the previous year. The company is battling a weak 'local demand', high electricity prices as well as competition from South African scrap metal recycling micro-mills as well as imports from China. ArcelorMittal South Africa confirmed that talks are continuing with the Industrial Development Corporation, a state-owned corporation. However, it declined to give any details about progress. It hasn't disclosed whether the transaction is a bailout package or an outright takeover. Last year, the company closed its long-steel plants to reduce?losses. The long steel operations provided rail, rods, and bars to the construction, manufacturing, mining, and manufacturing sectors, as well as the automotive industry.
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Police say that 10 officers killed by Islamist militants in the northwest of Pakistan.
Police said that a drone attack and ambush by Islamist militants on a police station in northwest Pakistan killed 10 officers. This was the second such assault within a week. The attack took place late Wednesday night in the Hangu District near the Afghan border. This area has been home to militants for many years. Militancy has increased in Pakistan's border regions in recent months. It is primarily targeting the police and military after an armed conflict between Pakistan & Afghanistan that killed hundreds. Islamabad claims that militants are using'safe havens' in Afghanistan to plan and train attacks in Pakistan. Afghanistan's Taliban government denies the charge, and says militancy in Pakistan is a domestic problem. Police said in a statement that the militants attacked the police checkpoint after hitting it with quadcopters equipped with improvised explosive devises. Zulfikar Hamid, provincial police chief, confirmed that ten officers and 15 attackers had been killed during the fighting. In recent months, Islamist militants began using quadcopters against border security forces. No group has claimed the responsibility for this latest attack. It came days after a suicide blast in Tank, a nearby district, killed 15 people including 12 Pakistani soldiers. The Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan or Pakistan Taliban claimed responsibility for this suicide attack. Since 2007, the?group?has been waging an armed insurgency in Pakistan against the state in an effort to overthrow it and reinstall their brand of strict Islamic governance. The militant attacks along Pakistan's border to Afghanistan could reignite the fighting between the two neighbours. In February, the allies turned enemies engaged in their most intense fighting for years. Pakistan also carried out airstrikes into Afghanistan. Reporting by Saud mehsud from Dera Ismail Khan, Additional reporting by Mushtaq in Peshawar, Writing by Asif Shazad and Editing by Saad sayeed
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Copper and base metals benefit from the softer dollar
The dollar fell on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain a stable interest rate. The benchmark three-month copper price on the?London Metal Exchange rose 0.75% to $13,676 per metric tonne by 0730 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.1% to 104 690 yuan (15,492.25 dollars) per ton. Dollar falls to one-week lows as markets assess possible Fed interest rate paths following Wednesday's policymakers' vote to maintain rates. A cheaper ?dollar can boost greenback-denominated commodities by making them more affordable for buyers using other currencies and ?higher interest rates can weigh on growth-dependent commodities by dampening economic activity. According to CME Group's FedWatch, the markets now price in a 58% chance that a rate increase will occur in September. This is down from an 81% chance?before this policy statement? Red metal also benefited from the pressure on inventories, concerns about supply and demand coming from China. Stocks of copper at LME registered warehouses On Wednesday, the number of available stock grew to 101,975 tonnes, after some material was returned to warrant. This halted a drop that saw stocks drop by 4.83% from Wednesday to Wednesday. Aluminium prices, however, continued to rise, with a 0.05% increase on the LME and 1.03% growth on the SHFE. The Middle East is a major producer of light metals. Continued fighting there has impacted the supply. LME stocks of Aluminium The majority of remaining stocks are of Russian origin which many traders avoid. Other LME metals include zinc, which gained 0.22%. Lead ticked up?0.05%, while nickel fell 0.1%. Tin also gained 0.53%. Nickel gained 0.66%, and tin gained 0.46%.
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Israeli strikes kill three people in Gaza including two children amid new ceasefire
Health officials reported that Israeli strikes in Gaza Strip killed three people including two children on Thursday. Meanwhile, mediators were holding 'new' talks with Hamas leaders, to help implement the U.S.-brokered Gaza Peace Plan. Medical personnel said that an Israeli airstrike in Khan Younis south of the enclave killed a boy and a girl aged eight. Medical personnel reported that an Israeli airstrike in Bureij Refugee Camp, central Gaza Strip, killed an 18-month old child and injured at least eight others. Both strikes were said to have targeted Hamas militants by the Israeli military. Gaza's health officials report that the latest deaths bring to more than 1,200 Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks, most of them civilians, since the ceasefire went into effect. Hamas doesn't usually reveal its losses. The ceasefire has stopped the full-scale fighting, but not the near-daily Israeli strikes. In the same time period, militants in Gaza have killed four Israeli soldiers. CAIRO TALKS Hamas leaders met in Cairo with mediators from Egypt?, Qatar?and Turkey to discuss the implementation of President Donald Trump’s Gaza Plan, which was presented by his Board of Peace. The plan included a massive increase in humanitarian assistance, a civilian Palestinian government, Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and a multinational force to maintain security. The progress of the previous months has been stagnant. Hamas' official stated on Thursday that the group would be coming up with a positive and good response. However, he did not say if the group had agreed to disarm fully -- a key sticking point in the negotiations over the last four months. Hamas demands that Israel commits to stopping its attacks on Gaza, and withdrawing all of its forces. Hamas sources said that the group would "confine" and?store heavy weapons in a Palestinian authority, but not give them to Israel. Hamas did not comment on that. Israel and the Board for Peace have not yet made a decision on the fate of personal or light weapons, or whether Israel will accept the new Hamas position. The Board of Peace has declined to comment immediately on the Cairo discussions. Israel wants Hamas?to cede its power completely in Gaza, and to disarm fully. Hamas disbanded a de-facto Gaza government in the last month, but maintained a caretaking group to ensure vital services were provided to residents. Israel controls approximately?64% (or a little more) of the small coastal Gaza Strip that was bombed into ruins by Israel's 2-year military campaign following a Hamas attack in 2023 on southern Israel. Hamas controls Gaza, where nearly all its 2 million residents live in a tiny sliver on the coast. They are mostly living in tents, or in damaged buildings, and face dire living conditions. Reporting by Nidal Al-Mughrabi, editing by Gareth Jones
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Outokumpu's Q2 profit forecast is behind the original due to costs.
Outokumpu's shares fell 10% on Thursday after it reported a core profit for the second quarter that was below market expectations. The European stainless steel demand has remained largely unchanged, and increased costs have offset increases in volume and pricing. The adjusted earnings of the Finnish company before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation in the April-June quarter rose by 33%, but they were still below the EUR114 million consensus forecast provided by the company. Outokumpu's profitability in Europe, its largest business unit, was broadly stable, as positive effects from higher volumes and a higher selling price were offset by a less favorable product mix and increased variable costs. The report said that the conflict in the Middle East had a limited direct impact on the market and was mainly due to higher freight costs. However, it also added that the uncertainty created by the conflict increased. The company's core result in Europe increased to EUR17 million, up from EUR16 million last year. However, this was just marginally higher than the EUR16 millions it reported the previous year. European steel producers, who have been under pressure for years by low domestic demand, high energy prices and cheap Asian imports, are now set to benefit from stricter import quotas on steel and a carbon tax at the border of the European Union. Outokumpu CEO Kati Ter Horst stated in a press release that "market dynamics were supported by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and steel safeguard measures which came into force on July 1, 2020." Outokumpu said that its stainless steel deliveries rose by 5% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter but were expected to remain flat or even decline by 10% during the weaker season. The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to remain the same as in the second quarter. Earlier?this?month, rival SSAB reported a second quarter earnings miss. This was due to a rise in logistics and energy costs caused by the Iran war.
US 30-year yield reaches 2007 high; stocks try to recover after earnings
The long-term borrowing costs of the?U.S. The?U.S. government's long term borrowing costs reached their highest level since 2007. Global shares also staged a recovery after investors were reassured by?some encouraging earning signals.
The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds hit a high of 5,239% on 'Thursday. It had previously broken above 5,2% the day before in New York after the Federal Reserve held interest rates. However, Chair Kevin Warsh sent mixed signals on the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.
Traders were unable to predict the Fed's next moves, a problem made worse by Warsh's decision not to provide any forward guidance.
Investors are frightened by the steep drops in some of the largest winners of the AI boom. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 1.23%, ending its third consecutive negative day.
Sanjiv Tumkur is the head of equity analysis at Rathbones.
Microsoft and Meta's earnings reinforced the idea that investors are looking for signs?that AI investment is paying off.
Microsoft shares rose 7.97% in premarket trading after the tech giant said that it expected to continue generating cash until fiscal 2027. Meta shares, on the?other?hand, fell 8.47% after earnings that reflected its expensive AI bets.
Analysts at Jefferies wrote that Microsoft has "hit the jet stream" while Meta is still building the runway.
Futures tracking?The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 0.41% while S&P and Dow futures each gained 0.24%.
The benchmark STOXX Europe 600 index rose by 0.48%. After two sessions of declines, the MSCI All Country World Price Index climbed 0.11%.
GREY SKIES Ahead
Investors are finding it difficult to assess the inflationary impact of higher oil prices, as renewed Middle East tensions have made it more complicated.
Brent crude prices dropped last month, which helped to keep inflation in June under control. However, oil prices have since risen to over $92 per barrel.
Three Fed policymakers spoke out in favor of a rate increase on Wednesday. This led some analysts to wonder if Warsh’s “good family fight” may be more difficult to navigate if inflation pressures persist.
RBC Economics strategists wrote: "As Fed enters the second half, we expect it to be confronted with inflation as a constant issue."
The central bank could use the rate hold to buy time until their next meeting in September. This would allow them to analyze two more inflation reports. According to CME FedWatch, the odds of an increase at the September meeting are now 65.2%. They were 57.3% just a week earlier.
There are still questions about whether or not hikes will be useful.
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, said that it was foolish to raise rates when faced with a sudden supply shock and a surge in inflation.
The main inflation threat is currently rooted in the prospect of a limited oil supply if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is an important shipping route for oil flows around the world. The Houthis-backed Iranians have also attacked the alternative route through Bab el-Mandeb Strait, further worsening the situation. Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru, and Ankur Banerjee, Rae Wee, and Amanda Cooper in Singapore. Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Shri Navaratnam.
(source: Reuters)