Latest News
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UK bans two Iranian groups for antisemitic acts in Britain
After a series of antisemitic attacks on British streets, the British government used powers similar to proscriptions in order to combat state-backed threats. This power would effectively ban support for these groups, and give police and intelligence agencies?new powers to combat any threats related to them. Keir starmer, the Prime Minister of Britain, said that "these 'new powers' will make it easier for anyone to be prosecuted and jailed in Britain who is doing their dirty work." Since its establishment in 1979, the IRGC has been an elite military force loyal the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. The Islamic Movement of Companions 'of the Right', a second Iran-linked group, claimed responsibility for seven antisemitic attacks on Jewish and Israeli communities as well as Persian-language media. This included the arson attack against four Hatzola ambulances at Golders Green, London, which took place on 23 March. The new powers also included the designation of Russia's GRU intelligence agency. Before the?designations can take effect, they must be approved by Parliament.
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Gold prices continue to decline as Middle East tensions support a higher-for longer rate view
Gold prices fell for a second session in a row on Monday, as renewed?hostilities? in the Middle East fueled inflationary fears and raised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep interest rates high for longer. By 1100 GMT, spot gold had fallen 1.4%, to $4.061.64, while U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were down by 1.1%, to $4.069.60. U.S. forces and Iranian drones have exchanged heavy attacks, including missiles and drones. Tehran has also hinted at the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. On hearing the news, oil prices rose by over 3%. "Renewed hostilities (in the Gulf) rekindle fears about inflation and the risks of further Federal Reserve tightening. This creates additional headwinds for gold through higher bond yields, and a stronger Dollar," said Ole Hansen, a Saxo Bank analyst. Hansen stated that "focus on the Middle East, higher oil prices and low liquidity during summer holidays are key risks which may cause gold prices to move outside of their current range of $3.900-$4,200." The opportunity cost of non-yielding gold increases as interest rates rise. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 69% chance that the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates in September. This is up from a 63% probability last week. This week is packed with U.S. Economic Data Releases, including the June Consumer?Price Index,?Producer Price Index as well as weekly Jobless Claims. Kevin Warsh will make his first appearance as the new?Fed chair before Congress on Tuesday and on Wednesday. This is expected to provide further insight on the economy, inflation and monetary policies. COMEX gold traders reduced their net long position by 1,964 contracts, to 114,854 during the week ending July 7, according to data released on Friday. This was after three weeks of consecutive increases. Silver spot fell 2.4%, to 58.4181 dollars per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.5%, to $1.619.98. Palladium was down 0.8%, to $1.266.60. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis, Hugh Lawson, and Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru)
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Nigerian oil production reached highest level since 2020, says regulator
According to the data released on Sunday by the regulator, Nigeria's crude oil production reached its highest level in more than six years in June, as stable operations and improved reliability of pipelines boosted output. The Nigeria Upstream Regulatory Commission reported that Africa's biggest oil producer, Nigeria, produced an average of 1,56 million barrels of crude oil per day in June, which was 4% higher than the quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Nigeria's total oil production, including condensates that are not subject to OPEC quotas in June, averaged 1.735 millions bpd, up from 1.7 million bpd a month earlier and marking a 4th consecutive month of growth. The crude oil production in June was the highest since April 2020. This is a 74 month high. According to data, stable operations in producing assets and the lack of major pipeline failures helped support production uptime. Nigeria's production has increased steadily in recent months. It went from 1.483 million barrels per day in February to 1.546 million in March, then 1.663 in April, and finally 1.700 in May. The June production was higher by 2.2% than the previous months. Reporting by TifeOwolabi; Writing by ChijiokeOhuocha, Editing by Kirby Donovan
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Sources: White House will rally utilities and data centers to AI power pledge
Three people with knowledge of the plan say that according to the White House, it plans to bring together?utility providers and data center developers in order to sign a voluntary commitment to prevent artificial intelligence from driving up electricity bills. In the next few weeks, an event will be held to announce this initiative. Several companies are expected to participate and have pledged to protect the current ratepayers by not requiring them to pay for the entire cost of AI expansion. Sources said that the guest list was still being finalized. The surge in demand for power from data centers, which are notoriously energy-hungry, has led regulators, consumer groups and legislators to warn that the public could end up subsidizing grid improvements needed to service some of the largest technology companies. This has raised questions about whether or not the pledge would deliver tangible?commitments, or remain largely symbolical. The Trump administration is accelerating the expansion of AI infrastructure in order to avoid political backlash due to rising electricity costs. Amazon, Google Meta, Microsoft OpenAI, Oracle, and xAI all signed a "Ratepayer Protect Pledge" earlier this year at a White House event, pledging to pay for the electricity infrastructure required to support their AI projects, rather than pass those costs onto existing utility customers. The companies have agreed to pay for grid upgrades, new power generation and other costs associated with their data centers. This includes unused capacity reserved. The White House stated that the commitments are designed to stop households subsidizing AI infrastructure growth. A White House official said that the Ratepayer Protect Pledge of President Trump has "been so effective" that other stakeholders want to sign it. People familiar with the plans say that the new event is expected to expand on those commitments, bringing together electric utility companies, data center operators and governors from states who are leading the expansion of power infrastructure to accommodate an expected surge in electricity demand. White House officials have argued that America can only win the global AI race by rapidly expanding electricity generation and transmission. They also maintain that consumers shouldn't be liable for the cost of this build-out. The initiative is being marketed by administration officials as a way to convince voters that AI investments and lower energy prices can coexist. (Reporting and editing by Nia William; Courtney Rozen, Sergio Non and Courtrett Renshaw).
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Brazil coffee faces El Nino headwinds, but crops more resilient
According to the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic), El Nino may reduce Brazil's record coffee harvest by as much as a fifth due to excessive heat and irregular rain. The state-run crop agency,?Conab, has forecast that this year's total production of arabica beans and canephora will be a record 66.7 million 60 kilogram (132.3 lb), with the latter including varieties such as robusta and Conilon. Celirio Da Silva, Abic's executive director, warned that a deterioration in weather conditions during an El Nino cycle could?dramatically decrease production. In a normal season, a loss of 15 to 20 percent would be expected. In the current situation, this is bad news," said he in an interview. The coffee industry is better prepared for this El Nino than it was during previous episodes, thanks to the technological advancements that have produced a more resistant crop. Silva said, "We have made significant progress and are now able to harvest?and plant more efficiently." In recent years, coffee farmers have bolstered their ability to mitigate climate risk by rapidly expanding irrigation system. They've invested heavily in this technology to reduce their dependency on increasingly unpredictable rainfall caused by climate change. El Nino will disrupt the biological cycle of the crop, especially during the flowering period, in the second half 2026. Experts say that excessive heat and irregular rain can cause uneven and unproductive flowering. Wellis Caixeta is the purchasing manager for Minas Gerais-based Expocacer. He said that irregular ripening can cause quality issues and make harvesting more difficult. El Nino 2023/24, coupled with heatwaves, irregular rainfall and other factors, has reduced Brazil's coffee?crop for 2024 from the initial government estimate of 58.8 million to 54.2 millions 60-kg bags. Despite arabica having a positive biennial cycle the output only rose by 0.2% while conilon productivity dropped 5.9%. El Nino could explain certain anomalies such as the unusual rainfall that occurred in Brazil's southeast over the last month. Expocacer estimates rainfall above 50 millimeters occurred in arabica-growing areas about 40 days prior to harvesting. This caused significant amounts of coffee cherries to drop to the ground and lowered the quality of the beans. Espirito Santo in Brazil, the largest producer of canephora, also experienced irregular weather conditions this year. There were longer intervals between rain and shorter, more intense showers, according to Luiz Carl Bastianello, President of Cooabriel - Brazil's biggest canephora cooperative. Bastianello, a state grower, said that they are worried about El Nino, which could cause excessive heat and prolong the dry period through January 2027. This would disrupt bean filling. Bastianello stated that it was too early to predict the impact of El Nino on 2027. Heat is the greatest risk factor for crop losses. Canephora's metabolism slows down above 27 degrees Celsius (80.66degF). At 35degC it completely stops. He added that the damage can be greater than the lack of water itself. The conditions have been better in the north of Brazil where temperatures and rain have remained within normal seasonal ranges. Farmers in Rondonia expect to harvest a record?3 millions 60-kg bags (132.3 lb), which is higher than the crop agency Conab?s forecast of 2.77million bags. Juan Travain of the state coffee association Caferon said that El Nino's heat and drought will not have as much impact on Rondonian robusta crops as it would on regions producing arabica. "Coffee's temperature is very sensitive, but almost all robusta plantations have irrigation, and many also use water-based systems for cooling. "Many arabica farms are still without irrigation", he added.
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Copper drops as Middle East conflict renews inflation risk
As tensions escalated between the U.S.A. and Iran, and oil prices rose, fears of inflation and growth were heightened. Benchmark 'copper' on the London Metal Exchange?was down by 0.3% to $13,443 per metric tonne at 1037 GMT. After renewed military strikes by the United States against Iran, concerns about energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced. The focus was also on the falling copper stocks. The copper stocks in LME approved warehouses fell by more than 20 percent since May's end, to a 4-month low of 305,200?tons. The LME system is due to receive another 130,525 tonnes of metal or cancelled warrants. Sources in the industry say that a large amount of this copper will be heading to the United States, where President Donald Trump may impose tariffs on metal used for construction and power plants. Since President Donald Trump's order to launch a national-security probe in February of last year, traders and producers have shipped metals into the United States. Since then, the copper stocks in storage registered by Comex have increased nearly 600%. . Copper stocks are found in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange Since the middle of March, 100,271 tonnes have fallen by nearly 80%. Alastair Munro is a senior base metals analyst at broker Marex. He said that rapidly falling stocks create a 'higher price floor' across all metals. The markets are watching Kevin Warsh’s first appearance as Federal Reserve chair before Congress and the U.S. Inflation data to get a clue about dollar direction. The expectation of tighter monetary policies in the United States has boosted the U.S. dollar, making metals priced in dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies. This also weighs on demand. Lead fell by 1.1% to 1,876, zinc declined 1.3% to 3,569, tin dropped 0.1% to $53,080, and nickel declined 1.2% to 16,545.
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De Beers will pause mining in South Africa's Venetia region for two years
De 'Beers announced on Monday that it will pause production at its Venetia Mine in South Africa for a period of two years. This is part of an overall effort to streamline operations and reduce costs in order to cope with the continued weakness in rough diamond trading. Anglo American is the majority owner of the diamond producer. The company said that the move would delay and reduce some expenditures on an underground mine project, but maintain investment in infrastructure for a higher level of production when the market conditions improve. Venetia is South Africa's biggest diamond mine in terms of value. It will employ 4,400 workers and produce 2,23 million?carats. In 2025, it accounted for 10.3% the total group 'rough diamond production of De Beers. After 30 years of open pit mining, Venetia's new underground mine will begin production in July 2023. De Beers plans to reconfigure the global operating model of its business to reduce costs and focus on its core activities. However, it has not provided any further details about these changes. Al Cook, Chief Executive Officer of De?Beers, said in a press release that "our commitment is to focus our efforts on value and improve resilience to position us to compete well as the industry conditions recover." Sale Anglo placed De Beers, one of the world's largest diamond companies, up for sale by May 2024. This was part of an overall restructuring in response to falling diamond prices, and the rise of synthetic diamonds. Cook stated in an interview at the NEXT Europe Conference in London on June 16 that he hoped for the De Beers Sale to happen "in a few weeks, rather than months". Industry forecasts predict that mine closures and production pauses in South Africa and Lesotho, as well as Canada, will lead to a global supply contraction by 2027. Atharva Singh reported from Bengaluru, Nelson Banya from Harare and Janane Venkatraman edited the article.
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White House rallies utilities and data centers to AI power costs
Three people with knowledge of the plan say that 'the White House intends to gather utility companies and developers for a voluntary commitment designed to ensure that rapid growth in demand for electricity from artificial intelligence doesn't drive up bills for homes and businesses. In the next few weeks, an event will be held to announce this initiative. Several companies are expected to participate and pledge to protect existing ratepayers from having to shoulder all of the costs associated with AI expansion. Sources said that the guest list was still being finalized. The White House did not respond when contacted for comment. The soaring demand for power from data centers in many states has led regulators, consumer groups and lawmakers to warn that consumers could be forced to subsidise grid upgrades to service some of the largest technology companies. This raises questions about whether the pledge is going to deliver on concrete commitments or just remain symbolic. The Trump administration hopes to avoid political backlash due to rising electricity costs as it pushes for the expansion of AI infrastructure. Amazon, Google Meta, Microsoft OpenAI, Oracle, and xAI all signed a "Ratepayer Protect Pledge" earlier this year at a White House event, committing themselves to pay for the electricity infrastructure required to support their AI projects, rather than pass those costs onto existing utility customers. The companies have agreed to help pay for grid upgrades, new power generation and other costs associated with their data centers. This includes unused reserved capacity. The White House stated that the commitments are designed to stop 'households subsidizing AI infrastructure growth. People familiar with the plans say that the new event will broaden the?commitments by bringing together electric utilities, companies who build and operate datacenters on behalf of Big Tech and governors from states in the forefront of expanding the power infrastructure required to accommodate the anticipated surge in electricity demand. White House officials have argued that America can only win the AI race by rapidly increasing electricity generation and transmission, but that consumers shouldn't bear the financial burden. The initiative is being marketed by administration officials as a way to assure voters that AI investments and lower energy prices can coexist.
MORNING BID AMERICAS-Crude up, chips down
Anna Szymanski is the Editor-in Charge of Open Interest.
Prices of crude oil rose Monday morning, after the military conflict between the U.S.A. and Iran intensified over the weekend. Memory chip stocks continued to lose ground in Asia, and South Korea's KOSPI index, which is heavily weighted with chips, also fell. Global stocks were'shaky' on Monday morning, as they awaited a week that will include the release of U.S. inflation data for June and second-quarter earnings.
Below, I'll get into this and more. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast to hear how the markets have responded to the escalating tensions between Israel and the Middle East. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear our journalists discuss all of the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
CRUDE UP AND CHIPS DOWN U.S. Forces conducted another round of strikes against Iranian targets on Sunday. On Monday, Iran targeted U.S. installations in Bahrain, Kuwait Oman, and Jordan. Brent crude rose early on Monday, reaching nearly $80 a barrel, before reducing some of these gains and trading around $78/bbl. This response, like the one last week, is fairly restrained. Prices are still below those seen before the fragile interim peace agreement was signed in mid-June. Hormuz is once again a place of chaos and uncertainty due to conflicting claims about the status of shipping. Iran claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz, but Donald Trump, President of the United States said that it was still open. The data on tanker traffic so far seems to support Tehran's position. Transits dropped dramatically during the first U.S.-Iran tit for tat attack last week, and have remained low throughout the weekend. According to Kpler ship tracking data, only six vessels transited the waterway Sunday. This is the lowest number of transits in five weeks.
The volatility of semiconductor stocks was also expected to continue, as South Korea's KOSPI, which is heavily weighted in chips, closed Monday?down almost 9%, dropping below 7,000 for first time since May. The index also entered bear market territory by falling 25% below the June 22 high. Its decline was partly fueled by a drop of more than 15% in memory chipmaker SK Hynix. This is its largest one-day fall on record. On Monday, bond yields increased and global equities looked cautious. Wall Street futures opened in the red and European shares were lower.
Investors' attention will now turn to the second quarter earnings season. This begins in earnest, with Tuesday being a day of bank earnings.
Tuesday, the U.S. Consumer Price Inflation data for June will be released. The core measure, which excludes energy prices, is likely to be closely watched for an indication of underlying price pressures. This release comes after a recent shift in the Federal Reserve's stance, where new chair Kevin Warsh last month reaffirmed his commitment to price stabilization.
According to Energy Aspects, a consultancy, Europe will have a jet-fuel supply deficit in the third-quarter of 600,000 barrels compared with 116,000 bpd surplus in the U.S. and 425,000 bpd surplus in Asia-Pacific.
Energy Aspects reported that inventories in the United States were 99 million barrels, while the European stockpiles stood at 38 millions barrels. Calculations show that Europe has less than 30 day's supply to cover demand - making it the most tight of all the major jet fuel markets.
Watch today's events
* Feds Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller and?speak
OPEC Monthly Oil Report
Want the Morning Bid delivered to your inbox each weekday morning? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed here are the author's. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to independence, integrity and neutrality under the Trust Principles. (By Anna Szymanski, Additional writing by Al Reed and Editing by Andrew Heavens).
(source: Reuters)