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The Fed's hawkish stance on gold could lead to the worst quarter-end loss for gold in 13 years
Gold rose a little?on Tuesday, but it was on track to suffer its biggest quarterly drop?in the last 13 years as inflation fears arising from the Middle East conflict fueled expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates. By 1:40 pm, spot gold had risen 0.3% to $4 027.03 an ounce. ET (1740 GMT), after reaching its lowest level in November. Prices have fallen 11.2% so far in June. U.S. gold futures settled at $4,038.50 an ounce, a largely unchanged price. The precious metal is headed for its first quarter decline since 2024, and its steepest drop since the second quarter 2013, when inflation fears were stoked by the Gulf conflict. Gold is often seen as a "hedge" against inflation. However, rising rates can weigh heavily on this non-yielding material. Edward Meir is a Marex analyst. He said that the markets were a bit uneasy over the stability of the MOU. This has put pressure on the price of gold, as people don't see much light at the end. A Qatari official has said that top U.S. diplomats in Doha won't hold a meeting at a high level with Iran. This casts doubt on progress made to end the Iran War. The U.S. readings of inflation remain stubbornly high, and far above the Fed's target of 2%. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at a high level for a long time and could even consider further rate increases," Meir stated, noting these expectations are weighing down on gold prices. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in an?approximately 67% chance that interest rates will be raised in September. Investors will now be watching the ADP Employment Data due on Wednesday, and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls due on Thursday in order to gauge the Fed's monetary policies. A survey by OMFIF revealed that central banks are more likely to reduce their U.S. Dollar exposure in the coming decade, due to increased geopolitical worries, and increase gold holdings over the near term. Silver spot?rose by 1.9%, to $59.42 an ounce. It was on track for its worst quarterly decline since the first quarter 2020. Palladium dropped 0.6% and platinum 1.6%, respectively, to $1,206.17. Both metals are on course to record monthly and quarterly losses.
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EIA: US oil production reaches record high in April
?U.S. The Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that crude oil production in April was the highest ever recorded at 13.93 million barrels per day. This is the highest level on record. Producers increased output to counter higher oil prices due to the Iran War. EIA data show that production rose by 216,000 barrels per day in April. Production in New Mexico reached a record of 2,37 million barrels per day. Texas' crude production increased by 36,000 bpd to 5.83 millions bpd. This is the highest level since November. The Permian Basin is located in Texas and New Mexico, where it accounts for roughly half of U.S. oil production. North Dakota's output, which is the third largest producer, rose to 1,13 million?bpd. This was the highest level since November. Crude futures in the U.S. traded?around $70 per barrel. In March, they had traded as high as $119.50. The U.S. natural gas production fell to 135.3 billion cubic foot per day (bcfd) in April, down from 135.4 bcfd and a record of 136 bcfd. The EIA reported that in top gas producing states, the monthly production in Texas rose by 0.2% in April to a record 38.8 Bcfd, while it fell by 1.1% in Pennsylvania to 21 Bcfd. This compares to a monthly record of 38.7 billion cubic feet per day in Texas in March and 21.9?bcfd for December 2021 in Pennsylvania. The data show that the overall supply of crude oil and petroleum products in the United States increased in April, reaching 20.81 million barrels per day. This is the highest level in the past two months. Supplies of finished motor fuel, which are a proxy measure for demand, also rose to 9.12 million barrels, the highest amount in the last eight months. The amount of distillate fuel oil that was supplied in April fell to the lowest level since December, at 3.89 million barrels per day. Reporting by Arathy?Somasekhar from Houston, and Scott DiSavino from New York. Editing by Chizu?Nomiyama, Rod Nickel, and Andrea Ricci.
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The top cases in the US Supreme Court docket
The U.S. Supreme Court has decided several important cases in its current term, including those involving President Donald Trump, birthright citizenship and immigration, voting rights and tariffs, guns as well as issues relating to race, transgender sportspeople, campaign finance laws, and "conversion therapy" for LGBT people. This is a list of some of the cases decided in the current term. The term began in October, and will run through the end of June. Birthright Citizenship The court rejected Trump's attempt on June 30, to restrict birthright citizenship in the United States - a right that has been woven into American society for centuries - scuttling his top priority in his crackdown against immigration. Trump's executive orders?had instructed U.S. government agencies to not recognize citizenship for children born in the United States when neither parent was an American citizen, or a legal permanent resident (also called a "green-card" holder). The court ruled that Trump's executive order violated the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which guarantees citizenship to anyone born in America with a few exceptions. TRUMP'S FIRE OF FED OFFICIAL The court refused on June 29, to allow Trump to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, as it was firm in its refusal to let Trump challenge the independence of the central bank. The court prevented Trump from removing Cook, thereby providing a safety net for the Fed. Since the founding of the central bank in 1913, no president has attempted to remove a Fed Governor. Trump claimed that Cook's firing was justified by unproven allegations of mortgage fraud, which Cook denied. Cook said the allegations were a pretext for firing her because of monetary policy disagreements, as Trump tries to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates. FEDERAL COMMISSION FIRE The court backed Trump on June 29, allowing him to fire a Democratic Federal Trade Commission Member, expanding Trump's power over the government. It also overturned its precedent from 1935 that recognized Congress as the only authority with which to protect the leaders of certain regulatory organizations against presidential removal. The Justices invalidated tenure provisions for FTC members enacted more than 100 years ago by Congress. The justices, in doing so overturned the court's pivotal ruling in the case Humphrey’s Executor v. United States. Rebecca Slaughter, the FTC's Rebecca Slaughter was fired by Trump in 2017 over policy differences. VOTING RIGHTS ACT On April 29, the court gutted a crucial provision of the Voting Right Act, making minorities less likely to challenge electoral maps under the landmark civil right law as racially biased. The court invalidated an electoral map which would have given Louisiana a U.S. Congress district with a majority of Black people. The court's ruling undermined Section 2 the Voting Rights Act which Congress passed to prohibit electoral maps that could dilute the power of minority voters. The ruling allowed Republican-led Southern States to demolish Democratic-held districts with majority-Black or majority-Latino voters ahead of November's midterm elections. After the Supreme Court gutted another part of the Voting rights Act in 2013, Section 2 became a more important bulwark to combat racial bias in voting. Black and Latinos tend to vote for Democratic candidates. TRUMP'S TARIFS The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2018 that Trump's tariffs were illegal because they were imposed under a law intended to be used in emergencies. This ruling has major implications for global economics. The ruling, which was a 6-3 decision, upheld the lower court's conclusion that Trump had exceeded his authority in using this 1977 law. The court ruled that Trump's claim to be able to impose tariffs was not supported by the law in question, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Congress has the power to impose taxes and tariffs, not the President, according to the U.S. Constitution. Tariffs are at the heart of a global trade conflict that Trump started after he entered his second term in office. This war has alienated trading partner, affected financial markets, and created global economic uncertainty. PROTECTED STATUS OF IMMIGRANTS On June 25, the court cleared the way for Trump's administration to strip hundreds and thousands of Haitian, Syrian, and other immigrants of their humanitarian status which protects them against deportation. The court overturned federal judge's decisions that had stopped the Trump administration from terminating Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for more than 350,00 Haitians and 6,100 Syrians. State Department warns travelers against visiting either Haiti or Syria due to widespread crime, terrorism, and kidnapping. TPS is an designation that allows migrants from countries affected by war, natural catastrophe or other disasters to live and work in America while it's unsafe for them return home. TRANSGENDER SPORTS PARTIcipation The court cleared the way on June 30, allowing states to place restrictions on transgender students athletes. It upheld laws in West Virginia, Idaho and other states that prohibit them from joining female sports teams. The court overturned lower court decisions siding with transgender student athletes who challenged the bans on female sports teams in Idaho and West Virginia as being against the U.S. Constitution. Idaho and West Virginia law designates sports teams in public schools, including universities, according to "biological gender" and bars "students from the male sex", from joining female teams. Idaho and West Virginia claim the laws protect fair competition and safety for girls and women, but critics say the measures are part of an assault on transgender Americans' rights. LGBT "CONVERSION THERAPEUTY" The court rejected on March 31, a Democratic-backed Colorado Law that prohibited psychotherapists from using conversion talk therapy to change a LGBT minor's gender identity or sexual orientation. The 8-1 decision sided with the Christian licensed counselor and deemed that the ban was an infringement on his right to free speech. The Colorado court rejected the argument that their law only protected speech, but regulated professional conduct. The court reversed a lower-court decision which had upheld a law brought by Kaley Chiles who argued it violated First Amendment protections from government abridgment. HAWAII GUNS LAW On June 25, the Justices struck down a Hawaii gun law that restricted the carrying of handguns in public places, such as most businesses, and without permission from the owner. This is the latest ruling to expand gun rights. The justices found that Hawaii's law violated the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which gives citizens the right to "keep & bear arms." The justices reversed a lower court decision that Hawaii’s Democratic-backed measure probably complied to the Second Amendment. Hawaii's law requires "express permission" from the property owner before a handgun can be brought onto public property. DRUG USERS & GUNS On June 18, the court limited the application of a U.S. Law that prohibits firearms possession by some drug users. The court rejected a Trump?administration position that threatened the gun right of millions of Americans that use marijuana and who own firearms. The justices upheld the decision of a lower court to dismiss a charge of illegal gun possession brought under the law in question against Ali Hemani. Hemani is an American-Pakistani who lives in Texas and told authorities that he regularly used marijuana. The Supreme Court found the government failed to prove that Hemani's prosecution was in compliance with the Second Amendment rights to "keep and carry arms" guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution. CAMPAIGN FUNDING The court again struck down spending limits on campaigning on June 30, this time rejecting federal restrictions against coordinated spending between parties and candidates?on the basis of free speech. The ruling was made as Republican major committees headed towards the November midterms with a substantial cash advantage over their Democratic opponents. The court, siding with Vice President JD?Vance and Republican challengers ruled that the cap on how much money can be spent on campaigns by parties with input from candidates is a violation of the First Amendment's protections against government abridgment. MAIL-IN BOARDS On June 29, the court upheld state laws that allowed mail-in votes received after Election Day in Mississippi to be counted. The ruling rejected a Republican-led appeal against a grace period of five days. The court overturned the decision of a lower-court that had found Mississippi's laws incompatible with U.S. Statutes that determine the timing of federal election for the president, Senate and House of Representatives. The Trump administration supported the challenge against Mississippi's law that allows mail-in votes sent by certain voters be counted as long as they are postmarked before Election Day and received within five days of a federal election. U.S. ASYLUM - PROCESSING On June 25, the court handed Trump a win by confirming that the federal government has the authority to reject asylum seekers if officials determine that border crossings between Mexico and America are too crowded to accept any more claims. The court overturned the lower court's ruling that the policy was illegal. After former president Joe Biden dropped the policy known as "metering", the Trump administration said that it might seek to revive it. The policy of metering allowed U.S. Immigration officials to refuse to process asylum claims indefinitely and stop asylum seekers at border. WEEDKILLER CANER CLAIMS On June 25, the justices ruled against thousands of lawsuits filed in state courts that accused Bayer of failing warn users of the dangers of the active ingredient of the German company Roundup weedkiller. The Missouri jury had awarded $1.25million to John Durnell, who claimed he was diagnosed as having non-Hodgkin's lymphoma following years of exposure to Roundup. The court agreed that Bayer's argument that the U.S. pesticide law prohibits claims of failure to warn that are brought in state court cannot be heard. Human Rights Abuses Abroad The Justices further limited the scope of a federal statute used to hold companies liable for abuses of human rights committed abroad on June 23, as they released a ruling that ended a lawsuit brought by members of Falun Gong accusing Cisco Systems facilitating religious persecutors in China. The justices overturned a lower court decision that gave new life to the lawsuit filed in 2011 under the Alien Tort Statute of 1789. In the suit, it was alleged that Cisco had developed technology which allowed China to monitor and persecute Falun-Gong practitioners. The Alien Tort Statute allows non-U.S. Citizens to seek damages from American courts for violations against international law. SEC "DISGORGEMENT" POWER On June 4, the court rejected a challenge against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s broad authority to recover illicit profits through a financial remedy known as disgorgement. This strengthened one of the key powers of the Wall Street watchdog. The court upheld the decision of a lower-court that had supported a broad use of disgorgement powers by the SEC. In this case, the Trump administration defended the SEC. A defendant brought the challenge after he was ordered to pay more than $3,000,000 in ill-gotten gain and interest in relation to a financial fraud. FCC FINES FOR WIRELESS CARRIERIES The Supreme Court ruled on June 4, defending the Federal Communications Commission system of levying fines and ruling against AT&T's and Verizon's challenge to the agency. Trump's administration defended FCC's system of assessing financial penalties known as forfeiture order. The carriers claimed that the FCC's internal proceedings denied them their right to a trial by jury under the U.S. Constitution. Compensation from Cuba The Justices on June 23, made it easier for U.S. firms to seek compensation for property seized by the former government of Fidel Castro. They ruled in favor ExxonMobil's lawsuit against Cuban State-owned Firm Corporacion CIMEX. The court ruled that a defense known as foreign sovereign immunity which prohibits U.S. suits against foreign governments or their agents is not applicable in cases such as the one Exxon brought against CIMEX based on a 1996 U.S. act called the Helms-Burton Act. In another case the court ruled against four American cruise operators who disputed $440 million combined judgments brought by a U.S. firm accusing them for using docks that they built in Cuba and later seized. CRISIS PREGNANCY COUNTER The court sided on April 29, with the operator in New Jersey of Christian faith based anti-abortion crisis pregnancy centers that are trying to impede an investigation by the state into whether these facilities engage in misleading practices. First Choice Women's Resource Centers brought a federal suit against a subpoena issued by the state attorney general in 2023 seeking information about the organization's doctors and donors. The lawsuit had been dismissed by a lower court. First Choice's facilities are designed to discourage women from getting abortions. RASTAFARIAN INMATES The Justices refused on June 23, to allow a Rastafarian inmate in Louisiana to sue prison officials after they shaved his head bald and held him down in violation of religious beliefs. This case was brought under federal law that protects incarcerated persons from religious discrimination. The justices upheld the decision of a lower court to dismiss Damon Landor’s lawsuit, because the statute in question did not allow him to sue individual prison officials or guards for money damages. Landor's religious beliefs require him to grow his hair. DEATH ROW INMATE A man convicted in Alabama of a murder committed in 1997 was spared the execution on May 21, after the court upheld a ruling that he is "intellectually disabled" and therefore ineligible to receive the death sentence. Alabama officials appealed a lower court decision on how to determine Joseph Clifton Smith’s intellectual capacity. The justices rejected the appeal. This method involved weighing the multiple intelligence quotient (IQ) test scores along with expert testimony. In a 2002 Supreme Court decision, the court ruled that executing a person with intellectual disabilities violates the Eighth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution prohibiting cruel and unusual punishment. JURY COMPOSITION On May 28, the justices sided with an inmate on death row in Mississippi, who accused prosecutors in Mississippi of racial bias for blocking Black potential jury members for a 2006 trial where he was found guilty for his involvement in the murder of grocery store owner. They found that the state courts of Mississippi had not evaluated Terry Pitchford’s claim that he was wrongfully dismissed four Black potential jurors in violation of a 1986 landmark Supreme Court precedent called Batson v. Kentucky, which prohibits exclusions based upon race. SENTENCE REDUCTIONS The court ruled that on May 28, judges could not order early release of prisoners on the basis that they would receive shorter sentences following the 2018 criminal justice reform act. The court upheld lower-court decisions against two Pennsylvania men who were convicted of armed burglaries and sought compassionate release on the basis of the First Step Act that Congress passed years after they were sentenced. SECURITIES LITIGATION The court sided on June 11, with a group investment funds affiliated to BlackRock and other assets managers in their attempt to defend against certain lawsuits filed by private plaintiffs under an important federal securities law. The court reversed an earlier ruling which allowed the hedge fund Saba Capital Master Fund, to sue the Investment Company Act of 1941 to invalidate fund bylaws that restricted the voting rights of activist shareholders. The Trump administration backed BlackRock and FS Credit Opportunities, as well as other funds in the case including Adams Diversified Equity Funds, Adams Natural Resources Funds and Royce Global Trust. COX COPYRIGHT DISSENSION The court ruled that Cox Communications could not be held responsible for the piracy of songs by subscribers to its internet service. These labels include Sony Music, Warner Music Group Universal Music Group, and others. This ended their multi-billion dollar music copyright suit. The ruling of 9-0 overturned the decision by a lower court to order a trial to determine the amount the internet service provider was liable for the record labels under a form liability known as contributory copyright violation. Cox said that a retrial would have resulted in a verdict of up to $1.5 billion against the Atlanta ISP. PHARMACEUTICAL SKINNY LABELS The court ruled that the generic version of Amarin Pharma Vascepa, a cardiovascular medication made by Hikma, did not violate Amarin Pharma patents. This decision could make generic drugmakers more resistant to patent suits involving "skinny label" claims. The justices reversed a decision by a lower court in favor of Amarin. Generic drugmakers argued that Amarin's victory in the case could have deterred them from producing and selling their cheaper drugs, and raised U.S. drug costs.
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Oil prices are little changed, but they will suffer the steepest quarterly and monthly losses since 2020
The oil prices were little altered on Tuesday, but they were heading for their largest monthly and 'quarterly' losses since the COVID-19 Pandemic early in '2020. Investors were looking at potential U.S. - Iran talks in Doha amid the strained -interim ceasefire of the four-month long war. Brent futures dropped 13 cents or 0.2% to $73.02 per barrel at 12:34 pm EDT (1634 GMT), whereas U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 89 cents or 1.3% to $69.86 per barrel. The two crude benchmarks are close to the levels they reached on February 27, just before the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began. Brent closed that day at $72.48 per barrel, while WTI closed the same day at $67.02. The market may not have priced in a risk premium but stranded vessels are now available due to the increase of ships leaving the Gulf. This has created a temporary surge of new supply, according to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Morgan Stanley has said that it models a global oil surplus of 4.8 millions barrels per day by 2027. A Qatari official stated on Tuesday that top U.S. diplomats in Doha would not be holding a high-level Iran meeting. This casts doubt on the progress of the efforts to end the Iran War and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, about 20% of world oil supply passed through this strait. Majed Al-Ansari, Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told media at a briefing that there would be no senior level discussions this week, but instead, technical discussions on regional security issues. On Tuesday, the arrival of U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in law Jared Kushner in Doha and his envoy Steve Witkoff followed a weekend of exchanges of fire that put to the test the interim agreement between the United States of America and Iran signed on June 17. The 14-point agreement gave both sides 60 days to negotiate an end to the hostilities and resolve difficult issues, including the future of Iran’s nuclear program. Future Milestones The lack of movement in crude prices on Tuesday kept both benchmarks in oversold territory, with Brent at 13 consecutive days and WTI at 11 consecutive days. Brent fell by?about 21 % for the month of June, after a drop of 19 % in May. This would be the biggest monthly drop since it fell by a record-breaking 55% in March of 2020 due to COVID destruction. Brent fell by about 38% during the second quarter, after rising 94% during?the first. This would be the biggest quarterly drop since it fell by a record breaking 66% in first quarter 2020. Last quarter's gain of 94% was the highest since futures rose by a record 142% during the third quarter 1990. Brent crude will no longer be included in the supply of five North Sea crude oils grades that support the Brent benchmark for the first time since 2021. U.S. OIL Inventories The American Petroleum Institute?trade group and the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release their weekly storage reports on Tuesday. Analysts estimate that energy companies removed 4.1 million barrels from storage in the week ending June 26. If the report is correct, it would be the first time that energy companies have pulled crude from?storage 10 weeks in a?row, matching a record set in January 2018. This compares to an increase of 3.8 millions barrels during the same week in 2017, and a decline of an average of 5.5million barrels for the last five years (from 2021 to 2025) Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Robert Harvey and Anushree Mathur in Bengaluru, and Trixie Yap, Singapore. Editing by Alex Lawler and Susan Fenton.
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UN holds debate on Sudan’s al-Obeid, as Britain warns about atrocities
The U.N. Human Rights Council decided on Tuesday to hold an emergency debate on the situation 'in Sudan's al-Obeid' later this week. Britain's envoy warned of the 'risk of mass atrocities' The request was made after reports that Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and their allies were massing forces in the area of al-Obeid, which could lead to an escalation in the conflict. Human Rights Ambassador of Britain,?Eleanor Sanders, described the "siege-like" conditions that thousands are trapped in and isolated from humanitarian aid due to increasing drone strikes. She told the Geneva-based Council that "up to 500,000 civilians now face large-scale atrocities...We can't allow a repetition of preventable atrocities." Germany, Ireland and Norway also supported the request. The debate will be held on July 3. The Sudanese delegation refused to speak at the council meeting on Tuesday. Sanders stated that London "plans to present a motion" before the council's?47 members on Friday. He did not provide any details. The council has no legal authority, but it can vote to start investigations that are used in cases of war crimes before national and international courts.
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Cuba's top diplomat claims that talks with the United States are "not progressing"
Cuba's Foreign Minister said that the talks started earlier this year between Cuba and its long-time enemy the United States have stagnated, leaving little hope of an end to U.S. Sanctions that have?seiged the islands economy. Top diplomat?Bruno? Rodriguez said that U.S. Sanctions are "causing death" in Cuba, as the islands economic collapse and severe shortages in food, fuel and medicine make life on the island's 9 million residents nearly unbearable. At a Havana press conference, Rodriguez stated that "talks between Cuban and US have not progressed." "The US delegations' generally respectful conduct has been accompanied with constant threats against Cuba, coercive actions, and offensive remarks regarding our country’s independence." "Cuba remains open to dialogue, and the peaceful resolution of differences based on respect for each other and non-interference with Cuba's internal matters." The U.S. State Department didn't immediately respond to an inquiry?for a comment on the Foreign Ministers statement. The U.S. called Cuba's government a threat to national security and said sanctions were necessary to force change in the island's government. This has been a goal of U.S. Cuba policy for a long time. Cuba, located 90 miles from the Florida Keys, has maintained for years that it does not pose a threat to America. Experts from the United Nations have called the U.S. Fuel Blockade implemented in January "illegal", and a violation to the human rights of Cubans. U.N. Debate Rodriguez said that the U.S. State Department is also "pressuring" and intimidating member states of the United Nations to delay a upcoming debate on the U.S. Blockade against the communist-run Island. The July 7th debate is usually preceded by a non-binding, mostly symbolic?U.N. Later in the year, member states will vote to urge the U.S. government to lift its sanctions on Cuba. In November 2025, the United Nations voted to ask the United States, among other things, to end its decades-long embargo. These votes were historically?nearly unanimous, with only the United States and Israel usually in opposition. This year's vote is of particular importance for Cuba, after the Trump Administration imposed in January a?fuel?blockade and new sanctions on the island, which led to a mass exodus of foreign investment and a near total collapse of the tourism industry. "NOT INTERESTED" Cuban lawmakers approved economic reforms earlier this month. If implemented, they would be the largest change to Cuba's socialist system since Fidel Castro's revolution of 1959 and a significant shift towards a "market economy". Rodriguez, however, told reporters that these reforms had nothing to with U.S. sanctions or threats. Rodriguez stated that "the (reforms) are a matter for sovereignty." "We have not listened nor are we concerned with the opinion of the United States." Reporting by Ayose Naranjo and Dave Sherwood. Editing by Kylie Madry, Sanjeev Mikleni
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Brent crude oil cargoes are not expected to be loaded in August. This is a world first.
As production is'steadily declining,' traders said on Tuesday that no cargoes of North Sea Brent crude oil will be?loaded in August. This marks a landmark for the global Dated Brent benchmark oil, which currently prices more than 60% of world oil. Brent crude, a North Sea crude oil, is the name of the global Dated Brent standard. It is used to price physical cargoes as well as Brent crude futures contracts and derivative contracts. Over time, Platts (formerly S&P Global Energy), which manages the benchmark has added other crudes in order to increase liquidity. According to a loading schedule seen by LSEG and a data set dating back to 2007, August is 'the first month where no Brent cargo was initially scheduled to ship. According to data from LSEG and a loading plan dating back to 2007, August is the first month in which no Brent cargo is initially scheduled to be shipped. Adi Imsirovic is a Brent specialist and veteran oil trader. He said, "What's left of Brent?is a brand name?of the world's most important crude oil contracts." "Brent crude will eventually disappear, but it is likely that the contract will remain in place for many years." Brent is now one of five North Sea grades, including Forties, Oseberg and Troll, that form the Brent Complex. Platts has also?added U.S. WTI Midland crude in 2023 as a way to boost liquidity. Brent's inclusion in Dated Brent has been questioned due to the drop in volumes. Platts stated on?Tuesday that the benchmark remained healthy. S&P Global Energy's spokesperson stated that the inclusion of Forties and Oseberg as well as Ekofisk Troll, Troll, Troll, and WTI Midland ensures that the benchmark will continue to function effectively. The benchmark is robust even when a particular grade does not have any scheduled loadings for a month. Neither Shell nor Brent Pipeline System Operator?TAQA responded to a request for comment regarding production levels. According to LSEG, Brent loadings in 2026 have been around 23,000 barrels a day, or around one cargo a month, which is less than a quarter the volume a decade ago. The combined loadings of the five North Sea grades in August will average 474,000 barrels per day. This number increases significantly when WTI Midland and other grades are included. (Reporting from London by Robert Harvey, edited by Alex Lawler & Diti Pujara).
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The hope of finding survivors of the Venezuela earthquakes has faded
Rescue teams in Venezuela lost hope Tuesday that they would find more survivors after hours of exhausting search for victims under the rubble of collapsed building. Rescue teams from Ecuador, the United States and Canada are working together to help victims of the recent earthquakes. After more than 40-hours of work, rescue teams from Ecuador and the?U.S. halted their operations in Macuto in La Guaira, the state hardest hit by the earthquakes on June 24, when they stopped hearing back from a trapped mother and three children under a nine story building. Major Jorge Montanero is the leader of the EQ11 Team from Guayaquil on Ecuador's Pacific Coast. He said, "Unfortunately things have not developed favorably," as he stood in the rubble of the building after cutting through the concrete slabs to try and locate the trapped four victims. Andrea Montilla sat on a plastic chair in the makeshift morgue set up by the state's main port. She waited for family members to arrive at the port and identify the remains of her cousin, who was also his grandmother. Montilla stated that the 14-year old was found overnight in the rubbles of an apartment block and his family took the remains straight to the port. She said that her cousin's mother was still missing. An official who wasn't authorized to speak with the media said that staff at the morgue led families through a personal identification process. The official said that families can get death certificates and cremation authorizations after this. The official who stated that?they were from La Guaira, and they had lost several family members to the earthquakes,' had no idea of the number bodies handed over or those awaiting identification. SURVEYING?THE?DAMAGE NASA estimates that 59,000 buildings have been damaged or destroyed as a result of the twin earthquakes. The earthquakes struck seconds apart and had magnitudes of 7.4 and 7.2. From space, the devastation is visible. According to residents and survivors from different areas, not all collapsed buildings had professional rescue teams present. Instead, relatives and neighbors worked to remove debris in order to extract survivors or bodies. "There's no doubt that the number is higher than previously reported." I can give an estimate. We are acquiring -- and this was agreed with the local authorities -- 10,000 bagged bodies," Gianluca RAMPOLLA, United Nations resident coordinator in Venezuela said Monday from his Caracas offices. According to the government of Delcy Rodriguez, at least 1,750 deaths and thousands of injuries have occurred as a result of these earthquakes. Around 16,000 people have been left homeless. According to a website created by the opposition party, the number of missing people is estimated at 43,000. In a press release, Venezuela's PDVSA state-run energy firm and Domegas private gas distributor said they were inspecting the gas lines of some 600,000.000 Caracas consumers to detect and fix?leaks. They said that specialized equipment for detecting leaks had arrived in the country. UN WARNS OF HUNGER AND DISEASE LOOMING United Nations agencies warned survivors that they would be at risk from 'hunger and diseases' in the wake of the twin earthquakes. World Food Programme has appealed for $50 million in order to provide emergency assistance to up 500,000 people within the next three month period. The agency also stated that it is able to feed 1 million people, if enough funding is obtained. The WFP distributed rations of one month's food to 1,200 people in La Guaira, including dry beans, lentils and cereals. It also established temporary feeding centers throughout the state. The World Health Organization had warned earlier on Tuesday that Venezuela's health care system was severely under strain. At least three of the country's hospitals were damaged, and six more were damaged or only partially functional. WHO spokesperson Christian Lindmeier said that thousands of people who were displaced as a result of the earthquakes are also at risk for disease outbreaks such as yellow fever and dengue. This is especially true given the low vaccination coverage. Washington has sent 89 metric tonnes of essential supplies to Venezuela. The U.S. Embassy in Caracas announced this in a Facebook post. The embassy stated that "our team in Venezuela works intensively to set up the field emergency hospital." We will soon be able provide emergency medical treatment to those in need.
Oil drops the most since years, and gold, yen are also falling.
Brent oil is on course for its biggest?quarterly decline since 2020 as traders keep tabs on the fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States.
The U.S. Dollar was expected to increase against a basket for the fourth consecutive quarter on the last day?the?second quarter. This pushed the yen down to its lowest level in 40 years as the expectations of interest rate increases in the U.S. changed dramatically. The greenback gained more than 1% against the currencies of emerging markets as a group throughout the second quarter.
The Strait of Hormuz reopened slowly and randomly on the energy market as the hostilities between Iran and the U.S. dwindled into a fragile truce, causing Brent oil to drop by almost 40% this quarter.
The equities rally continued for the third quarter as a seemingly unstoppable boom of artificial intelligence stocks kept it going. South Korea's KOSPI was up 68%, and Taiwan's benchmark index?was up 45%. The Nasdaq composite added more than 20 percent. The MSCI All-World Index has gained more than 14% and reached a new record high in the first month of this year. This is its best performance quarterly since 2020. Emerging Markets stocks are up by 23% for the period.
The STOXX 600 index in Europe, which has not had as many AI beneficiaries, as other Asian or U.S. indices, still rose nearly 10% during the third quarter. It's been rising every month since march.
David Morrison is a senior market analyst with Trade Nation. He said that investors cannot see the end of this bull run. "Whenever there is a little selloff, you seem to get a new impetus to purchase."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 126.78 points or 0.25 percent to 52,309.52. The S&P 500 gained 28.81 points or 0.39% to 7,469.63, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 207.36 or 0.81% to 26,029.22.
The MSCI index of stocks around the world rose by 5.31 points or 0.48% to 1,117.36. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.78%. Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 rose by 20.66 points or 0.81%. Emerging market stocks increased 16.86 points or 0.99% to 1,723.79. Nikkei 225.36 points or 0.99% rose to 70,062.31.
THE WINNING DOLLAR The dollar was the biggest winner among developed currencies this quarter, rising 1.4% versus a basket. Emerging market currencies, however, have gained 1.3% against the dollar this quarter.
Investors are accumulating bullish positions in record numbers thanks to an astonishing re-pricing the U.S. rate outlook. The interest rate outlook has changed from cuts to increases due to the strength and persistence of inflationary pressures outside of energy prices. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates at least once by the end of this year. Earlier expectations were for rate cuts. Kevin Warsh will address the European Central Bank annual meeting in Sintra, Portugal this week. The new Federal Reserve chair is expected to speak on Wednesday. Gold's 14% drop in a quarter, the largest in over a decade, was partly due to the dollar's increase. The yen, on Tuesday, reached its lowest point in more than 40 years, trading at 162,38 to the dollar. The yen was at its weakest point in 40 years, trading around 162.38 per dollar on Tuesday. Finance Minister Satsuki Catayama issued another warning.
Katayama’s comments "avoided verbal escalation which often precedes an effort to buy, and instead reiterating authorities stand ready at any time," Karl Schamotta said, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay.
Schamotta noted that "the non-farm payrolls data on Thursday and the Independence Day holiday on Friday -- when U.S. liquidity will?thin drastically -- could offer attractive opportunities to wrong-foot speculative positions."
Brent crude futures for August, which expires on Tuesday, were unchanged on the day. The contract is on course for a third consecutive monthly decline. It has fallen about 20% in June so far and?38% over the last quarter. The September contract, which is more actively traded, was also flat. The U.S. crude oil price is on course to drop 30% in the next quarter.
The UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that "I would not say the market has priced in a risk premium but previously stranded vessels have become available due to the increase of ships leaving the Gulf. This creates a temporary new wave of supply."
Morgan Stanley has said that it models a global oil surplus of 4.8 millions barrels per day by 2027.
(source: Reuters)