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Greek crews continue to fight wildfires northwest of Athens
On Monday, hundreds of Greek firefighters fought a wildfire north of Athens on a fourth-day basis after strong and erratic wind conditions caused it to ravage homes, pine forest and thousands of acres of farmland. This forced emergency evacuations both by land and water. After a midair collision with another helicopter whose crew was still alive, two firefighters on a firefighting chopper crashed and died near the seaside village of Psatha on Sunday. On Monday, more than 400 firefighters were deployed with 21 aircraft near the communities Kandili & Agia Skepi as thick plumes of black smoke &?red fires enveloped lush pine forests. A Greek official from the?fire brigade said that heavy machinery was used to create fire breaks in order to stop wildfires reaching homes. Wildfires have ravaged Europe this summer, following a time of record heatwaves. Scientists say that the conditions were exacerbated due to a rapidly changing climate. France and Spain were particularly hard-hit, though huge fires in those countries abated at the weekend. Greece's fire season was mild by local standards. Three firefighters died in separate incidents in Crete and the Peloponnese last week. The authorities are trying to determine the cause of a mid-air helicopter accident that occurred at low elevation. Aviation accident investigator Faidon Karaiosifidis said that at this point, the only thing they can say is that the formation between the two helicopters wasn't appropriate. Their vertical and horizontal separation as well as their descent rate were inadequate. Wildfires have been reported in the area around Psatha. Locals complain that while vegetation around houses has been cleared, more needs to be done in order to maintain and build fire breaks within the forest. Kostas Kastafados, Deputy Minister for Climate Crisis, told ERT public broadcaster that the strong and erratic wind conditions over the last few days prevented 'water bombers from drawing up seawater. This left ground forces to fight the fires alone. Nikos Lavranos of the Federation of Unions of Fire Service Employees said that the days of operation have "overstretched" a thinly staffed and aged fire service. This is the result of a hiring ban during Greece's debt crisis from 2009-2018. "A firefighter who is useful to his fellow citizens and the society is not an exhaustion firefighter,"? he said. The fire brigade reported that preliminary investigation indicates that sparks from vibrating conductors of a private powerline?transmitting energy from wind turbines caused a fire to break out and travel 25 km (15miles) in Boeotia, a nearby area. A?electrical engineering and a contractor were arrested, and they are being investigated for arson. In recent years, the main cause of wildfires in Greece has been faulty power lines. This was followed by arson and negligence.
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Copper prices rise on the back of falling inventories
On 'Monday, copper prices rose to their highest level in over a week as lower oil prices eased concerns about the economy and demand. The market was also focused on shrinking inventories. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.6% to $13,875 per metric ton, after reaching $13,900. This was its highest price since July 22. The drop in oil after U.S. president Donald Trump cancelled a new attack on Iran to?seek a deal?to curb Tehran's nucleonic ambitions also eased concerns about price pressures, according to traders. Britannia Global Markets stated in a report that "the markets are still headline-driven at the start of the week with energy markets as the primary focus." The fundamental picture for copper appears to be supportive. Both the London Metal Exchange and China Metal Exchange have depleted inventories. The copper stocks registered by the?LME have dropped nearly 40% since May, to 244,025 tonnes. This is their lowest level since February. Since February of last year, producers and traders have shipped copper to the United States, after President Donald Trump threatened import duties, creating a premium over LME copper prices. Zinc was up 0.9% to $3,676 per ton, after reaching a record high of $3703.50, a level not seen in four years, on concerns over supply on the LME. Three?large holdings in cash contracts and warrants (#LMEWHC) created large premiums for nearby zinc 'contracts against forwards with longer dates. A large short on zinc futures #LMEFBR> matured this month, which reinforced the trend. The premium or "backwardation" for zinc cash over the three-month ahead The level of smog is at or near the levels last seen in December. LME zinc stock has dropped to 99.285 tons (0#MZNSTXLOC>), down by 25% since mid-June. Other metals saw aluminium gain 0.8%, to $3,210 per ton. Lead fell 0.3%, to $1,871. Tin increased by 0.4%, to $55,500, and nickel dropped 1.3%, to $17 020.
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Oil prices fall after Trump cancels his attack on Iran and seeks deal
Oil prices dropped more than $5 per barrel on Monday as U.S. president Donald Trump held back a new attack against Iran in order to reach a quick agreement with Iran. Iran said no talks were scheduled. Brent crude futures dropped $5.04 or 5.73% to $82.89 at 1218 GMT. They had retraced a portion of their losses after hitting a session low earlier. ?U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil was trading at $78.90 per barrel, down by $5.77 or 6.8%. Both benchmarks saw their largest daily drops in absolute terms and percentages since last Monday. Two contracts increased by more than 20 percent last month, after the U.S. resumed fighting with Iran and several attacks on tankers in the vicinity of Oman raised security concerns and discouraged shippers from entering Gulf to load oil. Iran stated on Monday that there are no ongoing talks with the United States, and no plans for any meetings. This contradicts U.S. president Donald Trump, who had used talks to justify announcing an end to attacks. Can a deal happen? We would expect higher prices in August, given the depletion of global inventories. However, we will also be keeping an eye out for signs of a weakening of demand. According to PVM analyst Tamas Varga, under the current VVV (volatile violent and violent) trading conditions, the chances of making a mistake are high. Shipping data revealed that two tankers laden primarily with Saudi oil, crossed the 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait from the 'Red Sea at the weekend. However, traffic slowed down in the Strait of Hormuz as well as Bab el-Mandeb. Since Saturday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operation has reported three attacks on tankers. On 'Sunday', the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies approved an increase in oil production quota of 188,000?barrels a day starting September. The Iran and Ukraine wars have caused export?disruptions in the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan. This has meant that successive monthly OPEC+ increases over the majority of this year did not translate into more oil on the markets. (additional reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Sam Li and David Holmes).
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Greek crews continue to fight wildfires northwest of Athens
On 'Monday, hundreds of Greek firefighters fought a wildfire north of Athens, for the fourth day, after strong winds and erratic weather conditions caused it to ravage homes, pine trees and thousands of acres of farmland. This forced emergency evacuations on land and by sea. After a midair collision with another helicopter whose crew was still alive, two firefighters on a firefighting chopper crashed and died near the seaside village of Psatha on Sunday. On 'Monday, more than 400 firefighters were deployed with 21 aircraft near the communities Kandili & Agia Skepi as thick plumes of black smoke and red fires enveloped lush pine forests. A Greek fire brigade official revealed that heavy machinery was used to create fire breaks in order to prevent wildfires from reaching homes. Wildfires have ravaged Europe this summer, following a record-breaking period of heatwaves and little rain. Scientists say that the conditions were exacerbated due to a rapidly changing climate. France and Spain were particularly hard-hit, though huge fires in those countries have abated since the weekend. Faulty power lines Greece's fire seasons had been relatively mild compared to local standards. Three?firefighters died in two separate incidents last week on the Peloponnese and Crete. The authorities are working to determine the cause of a mid-air helicopter accident that occurred at a low altitude. Aviation accident investigator Faidon Karaiosifidis said that at this point, the only thing they can say is that the formation between the two helicopters wasn't appropriate. Their vertical and horizontal separation as well as their descent rate were inadequate. Wildfires have been experienced in the area around Psatha. Locals complain that while vegetation around houses has been cleared, more work needs to be done in order to maintain and build fire breaks within the forest. Kostas Kastafados, Deputy Minister for Climate Crisis told ERT that the strong winds and erratic weather conditions over the last few days prevented water bombers from bringing up seawater. This left ground forces to fight the fires alone. Nikos Lavranos of the Federation of Unions of Fire Service Employees said that days of operations had overstretched an ageing and thinly-staffed fire service. This was the result of a hiring ban during Greece's debt crisis from 2009-2018. He said that a firefighter who was useful to his fellow citizens and the society would be a "rested firefighter" rather than an "exhausted firefighter". The fire brigade said that preliminary investigation indicates that the cause of a fire in Boeotia that spread 25 km (15miles) last week was a spark from vibrating conductors that were on a private power line transmitting electricity from the wind turbines. A contractor and an electrical engineer have been arrested, and they are being investigated for arson. In recent years, the main cause of wildfires in Greece has been faulty power lines. This was followed by arson and negligence.
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Russell: The increase in oil production by OPEC+ is not relevant for the time being, but for the future.
The decision of the core members to increase crude?oil quotas in September is easy to dismiss as a meaningless act, given the disruptions caused by?Iran's conflict. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed, and as long as there are no solutions to the threats to the Bab el-Mandeb, the oil-exporting groups will have little chance of being able to deliver what they agreed to produce. Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait are among the seven OPEC+ members who have agreed to voluntary cuts in output. Algeria, Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Kuwait, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman also agreed. The United Arab Emirates left the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in May. This is the final phase of the rollback of the 1.65 million bpd cut in supply originally agreed upon in 2023. The production quotas don't matter for the time being. According to the latest survey, the eight OPEC members with quotas produced 20.276 millions bpd in June, which is 6.246million bpd less than the target. According to OPEC, Russia, the largest non-OPEC group member, produced 8.928 millions bpd during June. This was almost one million bpd less than its agreed quota. OPEC+’s decision to reverse voluntary production cuts has little weight on the current market. However, it highlights the challenges that oil exporters and buyers face. Three options The crude oil market is currently facing three scenarios, but it is unclear which one is most likely. First, Iran and the United States must reach a deal that allows unhindered and sustained passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Second, the conflict is sporadic, with periods when it 'elevates,' followed by hope of a pact and a truce, before these hopes are dashed, and drone and missile strikes resume. Third, the ladder of escalation continues. U.S. president Donald Trump orders strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure, and Iran responds by doing the exact same thing against Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq, that host U.S. base. Crude oil futures markets appear to be priced largely for the first option. Brent benchmark contracts fell 6.8% to $83.98 per barrel in early Asian trading on Monday. The price is 34% lower than the peak reached in the Iran conflict on April 30 of $126.41 per barrel. It is also only 16% above the $72.48 closing price on February 27, the day before Israel and the U.S. launched their strikes against Iran. Crude oil will likely drop quickly from its current level if the first option is chosen. OPEC+ will likely be able to increase production fairly quickly, and put more barrels 'on the market? at a time other producers are trying to maximize exports. A comprehensive peace agreement would also allow Iran to sell its crude oil openly, meaning that only Russian petroleum may be subjected to Western sanctions. If the second option prevails over the next few months, then the OPEC+'s decision to increase output is rendered largely insignificant. The question then becomes how well the Saudi exports through the Red Sea, the United Arab Emirates and the Gulf of Oman can compensate for the lost volume of oil from the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario will likely cause crude oil to be volatile, driven by headlines about Trump's tweets on social media. Markets hope that the third scenario will never happen, as it would mean long-term damage to the Middle East's energy infrastructure. This could lead to global economic pain as the world adjusts as up to 20% of its crude oil and liquefied gas supplies are lost. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Stocks rise on hopes of peace with Iran, but crude prices fall; yen firms after the intervention
?Signs of U.S.-Iran relations easing once again have set Wall Street on a positive course for August. Crude prices are up and stock futures are rising, as investors prepare for another week stuffed with economic and earnings data. S&P Futures were up 0.6% and Nasdaq Futures 0.4% in pre-market trading. The oil prices dropped sharply, while European stock exchanges continued to climb. The yen strengthened to its highest level in three months after the U.S. confirmed a joint intervention by Japan and the U.S. Brent crude futures fell $4.40 or more than 5% to $83.52 per barrel after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks with Iran will take place on Monday. He had previously called off an assault on Iran in order to pursue a plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz. European stocks rose by 0.4% in the first week of August. The German DAX set an intraday record, and last closed 1.4% higher. Bruno Schneller is the managing partner of multi-family office Erlen Capital Management. He said that "for equity markets, fundamentally, the picture remains positive". "Earnings are generally holding up well and companies with strong price power and resilient business models continue outperforming." Florian Ielpo's research from Monday, the head of macro for?Lombard Odier Investment Managers noted that over half of S&P 500 companies had reported earnings, and 86% of them exceeded earnings expectations. Investors have also considered possible consolidation in the healthcare industry, following a report that Bristol Myers Squibb, AstraZeneca and others had begun preliminary merger discussions about creating the largest drugmaker in the world, valued at nearly $400 billion. AstraZeneca's shares dropped almost 7% at one point on the reports of a possible tie-up. Asian stocks have struggled to start the month after a turbulent and wild July, when investors worried about massive capital expenditure on AI. Japan's Nikkei closed down 1%, while South Korea KOSPI fell more than 5%. The MSCI world stock index was flat as a result. YEN BEAR COWER FOLLOWING JOINT INTERVENTION The Japanese yen gained over 0.5%, reaching 156.77 against the U.S. Dollar after earlier that day it had reached its highest level since early May (155.2), putting traders on high alert for another round of intervention. Japan's Finance Ministry confirmed on Monday that the U.S. and Japan have conducted coordinated yen buying and will not hesitate to continue. This rare bilateral measure was taken to stop the yen from falling to its lowest level in 40 years. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the United States will consider in the coming months increasing the size of Federal Reserve's temporary dollar liquidity repurchase facility, describing the tool as an "important backup". Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst with StoneX, said that Besent's comments carry more weight than his intervention. It?feels safe to bet that the Japanese currency has reached its trough for the year. In these?markets, the words 'joint interventions' are a very important term. Trump said that the United States helped Japan support the yen on Sunday as a gesture of friendship and in order to benefit the global economy. Tokyo's unilateral intervention between late April to early May only caused a?brief yen recovery, while the Bank of Japan rate hike in the month of June provided little support. This highlights the challenges policymakers are facing due to rising oil prices, and the widening interest rate differential with other major economies. Before the recent interventions, the yen was anchored near 40-year lows at around 164 dollars per yen in recent weeks. Data from a US regulator showed that net short yen position had reached?roughly $12,5 billion, which is the highest level in two years. The regulator revealed. Bessent has repeatedly called for the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates. As oil prices dropped, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds fell elsewhere. The 30-year bond yield fell by over 5 basis points, to about 5.22%. This is a slight decline from the 19-year peak it reached last week. Investors were confused by the Iran War and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook in July. Reporting by Nell Mackenzie and Ankur Banerjee from London; Editing by Barbara Lewis, Kevin Liffey
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India's ONGC will reserve half of its new oil storage space for strategic reserves
Suresh Gopi, India's junior oil minister, told lawmakers that the Oil and Natural Gas Corp would reserve half of their planned 1,75 million metric tons (about 13,000,000 barrels)oil-storage facility in order to meet strategic needs for the country. ONGC is India's largest oil explorer and announced last month plans to build a strategic?petroleum storage facility at Mangaluru, Karnataka, where its Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals subsidiary operates a refinery that can process 300,000 barrels of crude oil per day. New Delhi has expanded its Strategic Petroleum Reserve with private participation. Indian regulations allow commercial use of a portion of the existing SPR storage in southern India, built at three different locations: Mangaluru (in southern India), Padur (in central India) and Vizag (5.33 million tons). The Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd. (ISPRL) manages these storage facilities. MRPL already leased the half of the?1.5million ton Mangaluru SSPR. Gopi said India also has the ability to store crude oil, petroleum products, and offshore facilities to meet 74 days' worth of its net crude import requirements, including inventories in refinery tanks, offshore installations, and its 35,000 km (22,000 mile) pipeline network. India is planning to build a strategic storage facility of about 4 million tons at Chandikhol, in the eastern state of Odisha. A new facility of 2.5 million tons will be built at Padur, in southern India. Gopi stated that ISPRL had?acquired land for the Chandikhol Project, which is estimated at 90 billion Indian Rupees (944.44 million dollars).
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Thyssenkrupp aims to complete the spin-off of its Materials Trading Unit by October end.
Thyssenkrupp said on Monday that it expects the planned'spinoff' of its tk -accelis division, which deals with materials trading, to take effect at the end October. This was according to comments for a upcoming shareholder meeting posted on the company website. Thyssenkrupp said it will register?the spinoff? in the relevant commercial registries by the end of August. Thyssenkrupp, aiming to become a holding firm, announced plans in June to spin off its division, which accounts for almost a third of group sales. At an extraordinary meeting, shareholders will vote on whether or not to spin-off 49% of division. In an interview with Handelsblatt published on Monday, Ilse?Henne, the CEO of the unit, said: "We have already had very positive discussions" Henne told The Paper that the spin-off will allow the unit to drive their 'own growth' in high-margin industries, with the expansion planned focusing primarily on North America. Henne stated that 'additional to organic growth', Henne also said growth through acquisitions was on the table. The Supervisory board of?tk Accelis Group AG and?Co. KGaA, according to Monday's remarks, will consist of a total 10 members.
The biggest risk to your investment right now is ROI. Risk aversion: McGeever
Investors could be forgiven if they hunkered down in a world of increased uncertainty and minimized their exposure to the proliferating risks. Paradoxically, risk aversion may actually be the greatest risk.
The 'largest energy shock since the 1970s is now entering its third month. It's stifling global growth, inducing inflation and confusing policymakers. Investors were still trying to understand the new world order, which was marked by deglobalization, dollarisation and trade wars, before the Iran War began on February 28.
These are all good reasons to adopt a defensive approach and reduce exposure to "risk assets" like equities. No.
Money does indeed speak. Specifically, profit. The artificial intelligence boom continues to drive U.S. company earnings. This narrative has many holes, such as the unsustainable capex spree and the high sector concentration. The fear of missing out, or "FOMO", continues to be more important than anything else.
Investors who hold the line are rewarded. Since the start of the war, safe havens such as gold, U.S. Treasuries and the Swiss Franc have depreciated while Nasdaq, S&P 500 and other traditional assets have reached new highs. Since February 28, the Nasdaq has risen 9%.
Investors seeking cover have found that they are not covered.
Wall Street is not the only market that has risen. Other markets around the globe have also risen -- Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's KOSPI reached new highs this week.
BlackRock, with its $14 trillion in assets under management, went overweight U.S. stocks last week.
JPMorgan's equity analysts upgraded their S&P year-end price forecast from 7,200 points to 7,600, which is a 7% increase from current levels. The AI outlook led to an upward revision of their earnings per-share forecast to $330 – a figure that is well above the LSEG consensus estimate of $315. They believe that if a permanent ceasefire is achieved in the Middle East, the S&P 500 may reach 8000.
The outlook is either excellent or very good.
No Reward for Underperformance
Standing on the sidelines has real costs.
The U.S. remains the world's most dynamic economy - it is home to the most innovative, profitable companies and the most liquid, efficient and effective markets. The market cap of U.S. shares is over 70% of the world's shares, and U.S. stock prices have been higher than world stock prices for 24 years.
Brad Setser, global capital flows specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, says that no one has ever been rewarded for selling U.S. stocks. There is a deep reluctance among investors to underweight the U.S., and thus risk underperformance.
This is similar to the narrative of "U.S. exceptionalism" that became popular in 2024. Investors can't afford to not have a large exposure to U.S. equities, particularly tech.
This thesis was questioned in the past due to President Donald Trump's unorthodox and controversial policy. However, the overwhelming dominance of U.S. Hyperscalers has quelled any concerns about the current administration.
Investors may be concerned about the direction U.S. foreign or fiscal policy is taking, but selling America is too risky.
RUN OUT OF STEAM?
The current Wall Street rally may not last forever.
S&P 500 has just experienced its third consecutive week of gains greater than 3%. Jefferies analysts point out that this only happened twice over the last 75 years, in August 1982 and May 2020.
Trading volume for "call" contracts - which are derivatives contracts?effectively bets on future price increases - is at historically high levels, particularly in the tech sector.
There is very little room for error with this hyper-bullishness.
There are other options. Investors who want to be exposed to the AI boom and?tech explosion have options in Asia. They can choose from companies like SK Hynix, Samsung, or Taiwan's TSMC. Several European firms will also benefit from the splurge in defense and tech spending that is expected in the future.
Diversifying on margins is not necessarily a performance hit for investors. The big three U.S. indexes are recovering strongly from the lows they reached in March due to the Iran war, but Japanese stocks and the benchmark MSCI Asia ex Japan as well as MSCI emerging markets indices performed better so far this year.
They don't have the same size or liquidity as Wall Street. In the U.S. a combination of loose financial conditions and strong earnings as well as ample liquidity continue to reduce volatility. This, in turn should attract more capital.
Investors are prompted to reduce their risk exposure and leverage when volatility increases. Risk appetite can remain relatively buoyant when volatility is contained.
Few can afford the risk of being cautious at this time.
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(source: Reuters)