Latest News

JP Morgan warns that oil shock will worsen if US-Israel seize Iran’s Kharg Island

LONDON, 9 March - If the U.S. and Israel seize Iran's port on Kharg Island, oil exports will halt, and production will halve, JP Morgan said in a report. This would lead to further attacks by Tehran on regional oil infrastructure.

Axios reported on March 7,?that the U.S. government had discussed seizing this island. It is located 30 km off the coast of Iran in the Gulf, and it processes 90% its crude exports.

JP Morgan stated that a direct strike on Iran would likely trigger severe retaliation against the Strait of Hormuz or regional energy infrastructure.

Iran is the third-largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries. It produces about 4.5% of the global oil supply, and its output is about 3.3 million barrels of crude per day, plus about 1.3 millions barrels of condensate, among other liquids.

Jimmy Carter, the U.S. president during the Iran hostage crisis of 1979, imposed sanctions against Iran but did not order strikes on the island. Ronald Reagan, his?successor during the Iran-Iraq Tanker War in 1980s, prioritized protecting shipping, targeting Iranian vessels, and missile batteries while leaving Kharg unaffected.

JP Morgan stated that "despite Iraqi forces striking some terminals and tanks during the eight-year conflict, Kharg was largely operational, and damage is usually repaired quickly. This shows that to disable it would take sustained, large scale attacks."

The island receives oil by pipeline from Iran’s biggest producing fields including Ahvaz Marun and Gachsaran.

According to JP Morgan, in the days before the U.S. and Israeli attack, Iran increased its exports to nearly'record levels. It loaded?over three million bpd between February 15-20, almost triple the normal export rate of 1.3 to 1.6 mbpd.

Kharg's storage capacity is estimated at 30 million barrels. According to Kpler approximately 18 million barrels are stored on the island. This would be enough to export crude for 10-12 days under normal circumstances. On Monday, oil prices jumped up to $119 a barrel as production cuts spread across the Middle East, affecting Iraq, Kuwait Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

(source: Reuters)