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Stocks plummet as oil prices soar
As military conflict in the Middle East appeared to be extending into the next few weeks, investors flocked to relative safety, including gold, bonds and the dollar. Brent crude rose 7.5% to $78.34 per barrel while U.S. Crude climbed 7.3% to $71.88 a barrel. Gold rose by 1.5%, to $5358 per ounce. The United States and Israel have not ceased their military strikes on Iran, but the Arab nations responded with missile attacks across the region. They risked involving its neighbours in the conflict. Donald Trump told the Daily Mail that the conflict could continue for another four weeks. He also posted on Twitter that the attacks would continue until U.S. goals were achieved. The Strait of Hormuz was the focus of attention. It is where a fifth of all oil traded by sea and 20% of liquefied gas are transported. Marine tracking sites showed that the waterway is not yet blocked but tankers are piled up on both sides of the strait, perhaps because they cannot get insurance. The most immediate and tangible impact on oil markets has been the effective halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This prevents 15 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd), from reaching the markets, said Jorge Leon. He is head of geopolitical analyses at Rystad. We expect oil prices to rise significantly if de-escalation signs do not appear quickly. A sustained spike in oil price could reignite inflationary pressures worldwide, and act as a tax for consumers and businesses that would dampen demand. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to a modest?oil production boost of 206,000 barrels a day for April, but a large amount of this product must still be transported out of the Middle East by tanker. Alan Gelder is Wood Mackenzie's SVP for refining chemicals and oil markets. He said that the Middle East Oil Embargo of the 1970s was the closest historical analogy. It increased oil prices 300%, to $12/bbl around 1974. This is just US$90/bbl by 2026. In today's market, where there are concerns about supply losses, it seems possible to surpass this. This would be costly for Japan as it imports all of its oil. The Nikkei fell by 2.3% with airlines being the worst hit. South Korea dropped 1.0% after an impressive rise this year. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan dropped 0.6%. It's a big US data week In Europe, EUROSTOXX '50 futures fell 1.9% while DAX futures dropped 1.8%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both fell 1.1% on Wall Street. The dollar was the main beneficiary of the oil shock. The U.S. has a large energy export and Treasuries remain a "liquid haven" in times of stress. This caused the euro to drop 0.4%, or $1.1768. The Japanese yen can be a safe haven, but the country imports its entire oil supply. This makes the flow of money more bi-directional. The dollar rose 0.3% to 156.55 Japanese yen while the Australian dollar gained sharply. Bond markets saw 10-year Treasury yields fall 2 basis points, to a three-month low of 3.926 %, after dropping below 4% for the first week since late November. Bonds were bid up on Friday when UK mortgage lender MFS went into administration after allegations of financial irregularities. The collapse of MFS fueled credit concerns, as well-known banks were among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion). Wall Street was hit by the news, which slammed banking stocks and also AI-related stocks. Investors will also be faced with a torrent of?U.S. This week we have a number of economic reports, including the ISM manufacturing survey, retail sales, and the ever-important payrolls report. After a disappointing quarter, any weakness in the economy could undermine confidence. It would also reduce the chances of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The markets currently indicate a 53% probability of a easing in June, and around 60 basis points this year. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes, Shri Navaratnam and Wayne Cole)
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Russell: The key to a boost in crude oil production from OPEC+ is the duration of the disruption caused by Hormuz.
OPEC+'s decision to increase crude oil production by 206,000 barrels a day (bpd), starting in April, is likely?the most unimportant decision that the group has taken during its nearly decade-long existence. Addition of 0.2% to global oil demand in a month is nothing more than a symbol in light of the escalating conflict in the Middle East that is already causing serious disruptions in supply. There was not much the 'eight members' of OPEC+ who are voluntarily cutting production could have done if they had met on Sunday in order to reassure the market that the supply would be secure. Analysts had predicted that the increase in barrels would be 137,000, but the actual number was 206,000. If there's any significance to this meeting, it is the symbolic message of the group saying that they could add more barrels if necessary. The OPEC+ decision to increase output was not enough to keep crude prices from spiking at the Monday open. Brent futures rose as much as 13.6 percent to a 12-month-high of $82.37 a barrel, before easing back to $79.10 by early Asian trade. How will the top oil importers react and for how long? The fog of war is a place where there's always a lot of uncertainty. And the recent bombings and missile attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran and their retaliation against neighbouring Gulf nations are no exception. The decision by Iran to attack civilian targets in the United Arab Emirates could be a strategic mistake or a brilliant move. Much depends on how long Tehran is able to continue the attacks, and how well the UAE can defend the civilians and expatriates who are sure to become increasingly concerned. For crude oil markets it is worth looking at what's known and the most likely reactions to the current situation. Ship owners and insurers do not want to take a risk with their vessels during a major conflict. It appears that Iran has not actively blocked the narrow waterway?that transports almost 20% of global crude oil and product supply. When the shooting ceases, tankers can move quickly through the Strait and ease any supply bottleneck. CHINA AND INDIA Other factors will also likely alleviate some of the concerns about supply. First, China, which is the world's largest crude importer, will likely reduce arrivals over the next few months. LSEG Oil Research estimates that China's imports were strong in the last few months. January's arrivals are estimated to be 11.61 million bpd. February's arrivals are estimated to be 13.42 million bpd. This would surpass the previous record of 13,18 million bpd set in December. By the time the cargoes that are being ordered now?are delivered to them in May and/or June, China is likely to reduce its production by up 2 million bpd. India, Asia's largest crude importer will return to purchasing Russian crude, despite having agreed with U.S. president Donald Trump to drastically cut Russian imports. India's top priority in any Trump deal will be to ensure that it has a secure supply, particularly since Trump's war with Iran is likely to cause India supply problems. If the Strait of Hormuz is constrained in the future, it's likely that importers will release their strategic reserves and exporters around the world will try to maximize production. The Strait of Hormuz is also a major route for liquefied gas (LNG). Qatar's LNG shipments account for about 20% of global LNG shipments. Importing countries can adjust their demand in a similar way to crude oil if the price spikes due to supply disruptions. China, as the top buyer, is most likely?to reduce its spot cargoes or?possibly resell term shipments. Even Europe, which is a continent with price-sensitive buyers such as India, can reduce imports to slow down the replenishment of stocks depleted by the winter peak demand. How long will the shooting war continue? This is the key to both the crude and LNG market. Both sides are likely to?run out of essential munitions, but can probably sustain some type of conflict for a long period. Trump and other leaders may be more likely to face increasing pressure from the public if oil prices continue to rise and remain high. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Investors prepare for greater backlash due to Middle East conflict
Investors are increasingly concerned about the prospect of a prolonged regional war and a power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This could have ramifications on everything from global trade, to inflation. U.S. and Israel strikes on Saturday killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Leader. This caused chaos as Iran struck back against Gulf cities. Airlines halted their flights, and tankers that were transporting oil and other products stopped transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. First, there is uncertainty about what will happen next in Iran. This is due to the complexity of the Islamic Republic’s ruling system, its ideological base and the power that its Revolutionary Guards have. This complicates the outlook of oil prices, which have been increasing for weeks. They are now dependent on what oil producing countries do, and the passage of tankers in the Middle East, and this has big implications for global inflation and the safety of bonds that were previously deemed safe havens. Middle East tail risks are increasing. The markets will move from geopolitical shock to regime risk, prolonged conflict and not just retaliation unless Iran wants to negotiate", said Rong Ren Goh. He is a portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments, Singapore. Analysts said that a greater?risk is the complacency of markets, which assume that the fallout will be limited as it was in June last year's "12 Day War" in Iran, or when Russia launched numerous attacks against Ukraine. They also dismiss any comparisons with Iran's 1979 regime change. Brent crude rose around 8% Monday, a gain that has reached nearly 30% this year. Investors have also purchased U.S. Treasuries as a hedge against a range of risks including Middle East tensions, and President Donald Trump’s unpredictable policies. Gold has had a record year last year, and it is up by 24% in 2026. The main U.S. index of stocks is only up 0.5%. Barclays analysts wrote in a note published on Saturday that "history argues strongly for selling the?geopolitical-risk premium" when hostilities begin. What worries us is that the investors may have learned about this pattern, and undervalue a scenario in which containment fails. Barclays analysts have identified other factors which could cause a fall in the stock market if the conflict escalates, including existing concerns about the artificial intelligence boom or private credit markets. We would not recommend buying any dips immediately - the risk-reward ratio does not seem to be compelling. There will be a good time to buy if equities fall enough, say 10% or more in the S&P 500. But not yet," the authors wrote. WHAT'S SAFE? As oil prices rose, safe assets also gained traction. The dollar was broadly higher on Monday morning, while gold rose by about 1.6%. Treasuries were also in demand. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose about 8.5% to $79.05 per barrel, while S&P 500 Futures declined 1%. The markets are ready for a limited surgical attack. Charles Myers is the chairman and founder at Signum Global Advisors - a geopolitical consulting firm. He said that a major attack to decapitate a regime is not priced into the markets. He spoke before the weekend U.S. and Israeli strikes. William?Jackson is the chief emerging markets economist for Capital Economics. He believes that a conflict that affects supply could push oil prices up to $100. This would add 0.6-0.7 percentage point to global inflation. "In my opinion, the market has already overestimated inflationary forces. I do not think that this will change very much." The impact will be greater on Europe, given the proximity of Hormuz gas and oil post-Russia", said Tariq?Dennison, a wealth advisor at Zurich's GFM Asset Management. Gold has already been priced to reflect the maximum level of geopolitical risk. Eastspring's Goh cited the constant drop in yields on?U.S. Goh pointed out that the 10-year yields have fallen below 4%. He said: "I don't know if buying U.S. Treasuries is a good investment, especially if the oil prices spike, and incite inflation, or if things drag on." Some analysts believe that Iran will not be able disrupt the trade in the Gulf Region and the impact on the oil price will be limited. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research in New York said: "We wouldn't surprise if the S&P 500 selloff on Monday morning turned into a rally driven by the expectation of lower oil prices after the latest Middle East conflict ends." Gold could also double on Monday. He said that bond yields could fall because of both the safe-haven market and future oil price prospects.
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Analysts warn that US gasoline prices will rise after the attack on Iran
Analysts say that the U.S. retail average gasoline price is set to surpass $3 per gallon for the first time since?more than 3 months on Monday as the conflict between Iran and the United States 'interrupts the global oil flow. Price inflation is a big concern for voters, and that could be a major problem for Donald Trump's Republican Party as we approach the November midterm elections. Trump has falsely claimed credit for lowering gasoline prices many times since he returned to office in 2017. Patrick De Haan is an analyst with GasBuddy, a retailer that tracks retail prices. He believes the average pump price could exceed $3 per gallon for the first time in this year on Monday. GasBuddy's data shows that prices last exceeded $3 in the United States in November 2025. In February, they were as low at $2.85 per gallon. "Oil is the first to move." De Haan wrote in a post on his blog that gasoline would follow, but slowly. Iran, one of the top oil producers in the world, has said that it will no longer allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. airstrikes and Israeli airstrikes killed its Supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Hormuz, a major chokepoint in the Middle East Gulf, is where around a fifth (or more) of all oil flowing through tankers. Three tankers were damaged in the area, and major shippers said that they would 'avoid the Strait. On Sunday, Brent crude rose 10% to $80 per barrel on the open market due to the increasing impact. Some analysts predict Brent could reach $100 if the Middle East enters a new war. Bob McNally, President of Rapidan Energy Group an 'energy consultancy,' said that the White House has so far accepted the political risks associated with higher oil prices in order to achieve its foreign policy goals. McNally stated that "their eyes are open to the risks, and I anticipate they will focus their attention on reducing the time Iran has left to control the energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz." McNally added that the White House might also indicate a willingness for it to release oil out of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to keep prices down. Joe Biden, the former U.S. president, had authorized an historic drawdown of SPR in 2020 to address rising prices following Russia's invasion. Trump and other Republicans strongly criticized this move. The White House didn't immediately respond to comments. SEASONAL DEMAND De Haan stated that gasoline prices in the United States had already been rising before the U.S. strike on Iran. Refiners began producing a more expensive summer-grade fuel in recent weeks, which was mandated by environmental regulations in order to reduce air pollution during warmer weather. The demand for gasoline in the United States also tends peak during the summer holiday season. "We were set to rise to $3.10-3.25 per gallon with a peaceful Persian Gulf." "We'll get there very soon and the actions of the last 48-hours puts higher numbers into play," said Tom Kloza. Senior adviser at fuel supplier Gulf. He said that a $5 increase in crude oil per barrel should translate into an increase of 12 cents for each gallon of gasoline or diesel. However, some suppliers had already increased wholesale prices up to 25 cents. Prices are rising after months of declining prices, mainly due to high inventories and weak demand growth. These large stockpiles could provide a buffer against global market disruptions, and even temper current price spikes. According to the most recent government data, the U.S. gasoline stock was 254.8 million barrels on February 20. This is near their highest level since the coronavirus epidemic. These stocks are equivalent to 30 days of supply. De Haan stated that "I expect (price volatility) to be high tonight. However, markets should start to calm down after the first furious hours." (Reporting from Shariq Khan, New York; Editing by Richard Valdmanis).
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Texas bar shooting leaves three dead and 14 injured
The FBI has said that it is examining "indicators", which could'suggest an possible terrorist link to the mass shooting in Austin, Texas early Sunday morning, where police reported at least?three deaths and 14 injuries. Police said that the suspect was killed during an exchange of gunfire with officers at the scene. Police said that 14 people were hospitalized with three in critical condition. The name of the shooter has not been released, nor have the motives. However, FBI agent Alex Doran said to reporters that "there were indications on the subject and in his car, which indicate a possible nexus with terrorism." Doran, a spokesperson for the FBI, said in a Sunday press conference that the Joint Terrorism Task Force, along with staff from the federal agency's digital forensic and evidence response teams, is working on the investigation. According to local media, the mass shooting took place outside Buford's in downtown Austin, a roadhouse-style pub known for its proximity to food trucks. Austin Police Department didn't immediately respond to Sunday's request for comment. According to the Austin American-Statesman?newspaper, Austin Police chief Lisa Davis stated that the shooter drove around the block several times in a large SUV before stopping and turning on his hazard light, rolling down his window, and firing at patrons?on Buford?s patio and?infront of the bar. According to the Gun Violence Archive data, this was the 56th mass shooting in the United States and the one that has claimed the most lives. A mass shooting is defined as an event?inwhich at least four people are injured or killed by gunfire, not including the shooter. Archive data shows that the U.S. experienced 407 mass shootings in 2013. Reporting by P.J. Huffstutter and Federica mileo in Chicago; editing by Christina Fincher and Sergio Non.
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After the weekend Iran strike, Japanese yens and Swiss francs gain as safe haven currencies
The safe haven currencies of the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen strengthened, while 'the euro' fell as trading resumed following a weekend in which?the United States and Israel launched their most ambitious attack on Iran since decades, killing Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. In late New York trading on Friday, the euro fell 0.34% to $1.1776 from around $1.18. The euro also dropped 0.5% against the Swiss Franc, to 0.9039 - its lowest level since 2015. The dollar dropped 0.26% against the yen, and was down 0.3% lastly against the Swiss Franc. The greenback was stronger against the Australian dollar and sterling. U.S. and Israeli strikes - and Iranian retaliation - have sent shockwaves through the Middle East and across sectors, from shipping to air travel to oil, on warnings about rising energy costs and disrupting business in the Gulf. The reaction of the energy markets will have a significant impact on how currencies, stocks and bonds trade in response to events in Iran. Analysts expect oil to open at a sharply higher price on Monday. Traders say that it has already risen by around 10% on the over-the-counter markets. Gold, a safe haven, is likely to rise as well. Stocks are also expected to drop. Boursa Kuwait halted trading on Sunday after Iranian reprisal attacks against U.S.-targeted cities in the Gulf region sparked fears of regional instability. INVESTORS ARE SCENARIO?PLANNING Investors scrambled for clues as to what will happen next. FX markets are among the first asset classes to start trading after weekend developments. We see two scenarios. First, we can expect a limited disruption to the global energy market, which will have minimal impact on the world's economy. Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, said that a second scenario would be a "more protracted and broader conflict" leading to an oil crisis. He said: "We think the first scenario is unfolding right now." But, in the "second scenario," "commodities and bond yields would be affected, as well as currencies, oil-sensitive sectors of the stock market, inflation expectations, monetary policies, and, in case of an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, economic growth." Brent crude oil?traded around $80 a barrel?over the counter?on Sunday, traders?said. On Friday, it jumped to $73, the highest level since July. Iran is a major producer of energy and sits across the Strait of Hormuz from the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula, which accounts for about 20% of the global oil supply. (Reporting and editing by Dhara Raasinghe; Alun John)
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After the weekend Iran strike, Japanese yens and Swiss francs gain as safe haven currencies
Safe haven currencies like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and the euro strengthened as currency trading returned after the weekend when the United States and Israel launched their most ambitious attack on Iran since decades, killing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It dropped by 0.34%, to $1.1776, compared to around $1.18 at the end of New York trading on Friday. The euro fell by 0.5% against the Swiss Franc, to 0.9039. This is its lowest level since 2015. The dollar dropped 0.26%, to 155.65yen. However, the greenback gained against sterling and Australian dollars. U.S., Israeli, and Iranian strikes, as well as?Iran's retaliation, have sent shockwaves through the Middle East, from shipping to air travel, to oil. There are also warnings about rising energy prices and disruptions to business, especially in the Gulf region, which is a strategic trade and waterway. Energy markets' reaction to the developments in Iran will have a significant impact on how currencies, stocks and bonds trade. Analysts are expecting oil to open sharply up on Monday in 'Asia. Traders say that it has already risen by around 10% in the over-the-counter markets. Gold, a safe haven, is also expected to rise. Stocks are expected to start lower. Most Gulf stocks?fell Sunday, and Boursa Kuwait suspended its trading after?Iranian attacks on nearby U.S. target cities in the Gulf region sparked fears of continued regional instability. Reporting by Alun Johnson; Editing and proofreading by Dhara Ranasinghe
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Investors prepare for greater backlash due to Middle East conflict
Investors are increasingly concerned about the Middle East conflict, which has risen from a marginal risk to a major concern. They fear a prolonged regional war and power struggles in Iran, with implications for global trade, inflation, etc. U.S. and Israel strikes on Saturday?killed Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, causing chaos in the Gulf as Iran struck at Gulf cities. Airlines halted their flights, while tankers transporting oil, other products, and other goods suspended transit through Strait of Hormuz. First, there is uncertainty about what will happen next in Iran. This is due to the complexity of the Islamic Republic’s ruling system, its ideological base and the power that its Revolutionary Guards have. This complicates the outlook of oil prices, which have been increasing for weeks. They are now dependent on what oil producing countries do, and the passage of tankers in the Middle East, and this has big implications for global inflation and the safety of bonds that were previously deemed safe havens. Middle East tail risks have increased. The markets will move from geopolitical to regime shock shock and prolonged conflict to retaliation unless Iran wants to negotiate. Analysts said that a greater risk is the complacency of markets, which assumed that the fallout from this conflict would be minimal, as it was in Iran during last year's "12 Day War", or when Russia launched?numerous strikes on Ukraine. They also dismissed any comparisons with Iran's regime change in 1979. Brent crude has risen by around a fifth in the past year, to $73 per barrel. Investors have bought U.S. Treasuries as a hedge against a number of risks, such as Middle East tensions or President Donald Trump's unpredictable policies. Gold has risen 22% in 2026, after a record-breaking year. The main U.S. index is up only 0.5%. In a note published on Saturday, Barclays analysts stated that "history argues strongly for selling geopolitical premiums when hostilities begin." What worries us is that the investors may have learned about this pattern, and undervalue a scenario in which containment fails. Barclays analysts have identified other factors which could cause a fall in the stock market if the conflict escalates, including concerns about the artificial intelligence boom or private credit markets. We would not recommend buying any dips immediately - the risk-reward ratio does not seem to be compelling. There will be a good time to buy if equities fall enough, say 10% or more in the S&P 500. But not yet," the authors wrote. WHAT'S SAFE? The markets are expected to be volatile this week. The markets are ready for a limited surgical attack. Charles Myers is the chairman and founder at Signum Global Advisors. A geopolitical consulting firm. He spoke before the weekend U.S. and Israeli strikes. William Jackson, Capital Economics' chief emerging markets economist, predicts that a "prolonged conflict" could increase oil prices by around $100 and add 0.6-0.7 percentage point to global inflation. "In my opinion, the market had already overestimated inflationary forces. I don't think this will change a lot." The impact will be greater on Europe, given the proximity of Hormuz gas and oil post-Russia," said Tariq Denson, a wealth advisor at Zurich's GFM Asset Management. Gold has already been priced to reflect the maximum level of geopolitical risk. Eastspring's Goh cited the steady decline in U.S. Yields which has brought 10-year Yields to below 4%. He said: "I don't know if buying US Treasuries is a good investment, especially if the oil prices spike, and in turn, cause inflation. If this thing drags, I am not sure." Some analysts believe that Iran won't be able?to disrupt trade in the Gulf Region and the impact on oil prices will be limited. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research in New York said: "We wouldn't surprise if any drop in the S&P 500 Monday morning turned into a rally driven by expectations that oil prices will fall once the latest Middle East conflict ends." Gold could also double on Monday. He said that bond yields could fall because of both the safe-haven market and future oil price prospects.
Stocks under pressure as oil prices soar in Asia
As the Middle East conflict looked to be extending into the next few weeks, investors rushed to bonds and gold to protect themselves. This was just after the markets were spooked by AI and banking concerns.
Brent crude oil jumped by 9%, to $79.42 per barrel. U.S. crude rose 8.6% to $72.61 a barrel. Gold increased 1.4% to $5,350 per ounce.
The United States and Israel's military strikes on Iran have not ceased, but the Arab nations responded with missile attacks across the region. They risked involving their neighbours in the conflict.
Donald Trump told the Daily Mail that the conflict could continue for another four weeks. He also posted on Twitter that the attacks would continue until U.S. goals were achieved.
The Strait of Hormuz was the focus of attention. It is where a fifth of all oil traded by sea and 20% of liquefied gas are transported. Marine tracking sites show that the vital waterway is not yet blocked. However, tankers are piled up on both sides of the strait. They may be afraid of an attack or unable to obtain insurance for the trip.
The most immediate and concrete development that has affected oil markets is the effective stoppage of traffic through Strait of Hormuz. This prevents 15 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd), from reaching the markets,? said Jorge Leon, the head of geopolitical analyses at Rystad.
We expect oil prices to rise significantly unless de-escalation signs are quickly sent out.
A sustained spike in oil price could reignite inflationary pressures worldwide, and act as a tax for consumers and businesses that would dampen demand.
OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to a modest increase in oil production of 206,000 barrels a day for the month of April, but a large amount of this product?still needs to be transported out of the Middle East via tanker.
Alan Gelder is Wood Mackenzie's SVP for refining and chemicals, oil markets, and said that the Middle East Oil Embargo of the 1970s was the closest historical analogy. The embargo increased oil prices 300%, to $12/bbl around 1974.
This is just US$90/bbl by 2026. In today's market, where there are concerns about supply losses, it seems possible to surpass this.
Nikkei Futures fell by 1.1%, as this would be costly for Japan who imports all of its oil.
It's a big US data week
S&P futures on Wall Street fell 0.8%, while Nasdaq Futures dropped 0.9%.
The dollar fell 0.2% against the Swiss Franc, a safe haven currency.
The U.S., despite being a net exporter of energy, is still considered to be a liquid safe haven during times of crisis. This gives the dollar support and pushes the euro down by 0.3% at $1.1780.
The Japanese yen can be a safe haven, but the country imports its oil. This makes the flow of money more bi-directional. The dollar rose 0.2% to 156.31 Japanese yen while the Australian dollar gained sharply.
Bond markets saw 10-year Treasury futures rise 3 ticks. Yields had fallen below 4% for the first week since late November.
The bond market was boosted on Friday after UK mortgage lender MFS went into administration due to allegations of financial irregularities. The collapse of MFS stoked credit concerns, as well-known banks were among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion).
The news hit banking stocks hard and combined with worries over AI-related stocks, Wall Street was impacted more widely.
Investors will also be faced with a torrent of U.S. economic data, including retail sales, the ISM manufacturing survey, and the vital payrolls report.
After a disappointing quarter, any weakness in the economy could undermine confidence. It would also reduce the chances of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The markets currently indicate a 53% probability of a easing in June, and around 60 basis points this year. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes; Wayne Cole)
(source: Reuters)