Latest News

Stocks under pressure as oil prices soar in Asia

As the Middle East conflict looked to be extending into the next few weeks, investors rushed to bonds and gold to protect themselves. This was just after the markets were spooked by AI and banking concerns.

Brent crude oil jumped by 9%, to $79.42 per barrel. U.S. crude rose 8.6% to $72.61 a barrel. Gold increased 1.4% to $5,350 per ounce.

The United States and Israel's military strikes on Iran have not ceased, but the Arab nations responded with missile attacks across the region. They risked involving their neighbours in the conflict.

Donald Trump told the Daily Mail that the conflict could continue for another four weeks. He also posted on Twitter that the attacks would continue until U.S. goals were achieved.

The Strait of Hormuz was the focus of attention. It is where a fifth of all oil traded by sea and 20% of liquefied gas are transported. Marine tracking sites show that the vital waterway is not yet blocked. However, tankers are piled up on both sides of the strait. They may be afraid of an attack or unable to obtain insurance for the trip.

The most immediate and concrete development that has affected oil markets is the effective stoppage of traffic through Strait of Hormuz. This prevents 15 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd), from reaching the markets,? said Jorge Leon, the head of geopolitical analyses at Rystad.

We expect oil prices to rise significantly unless de-escalation signs are quickly sent out.

A sustained spike in oil price could reignite inflationary pressures worldwide, and act as a tax for consumers and businesses that would dampen demand.

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to a modest increase in oil production of 206,000 barrels a day for the month of April, but a large amount of this product?still needs to be transported out of the Middle East via tanker.

Alan Gelder is Wood Mackenzie's SVP for refining and chemicals, oil markets, and said that the Middle East Oil Embargo of the 1970s was the closest historical analogy. The embargo increased oil prices 300%, to $12/bbl around 1974.

This is just US$90/bbl by 2026. In today's market, where there are concerns about supply losses, it seems possible to surpass this.

Nikkei Futures fell by 1.1%, as this would be costly for Japan who imports all of its oil.

It's a big US data week

S&P futures on Wall Street fell 0.8%, while Nasdaq Futures dropped 0.9%.

The dollar fell 0.2% against the Swiss Franc, a safe haven currency.

The U.S., despite being a net exporter of energy, is still considered to be a liquid safe haven during times of crisis. This gives the dollar support and pushes the euro down by 0.3% at $1.1780.

The Japanese yen can be a safe haven, but the country imports its oil. This makes the flow of money more bi-directional. The dollar rose 0.2% to 156.31 Japanese yen while the Australian dollar gained sharply.

Bond markets saw 10-year Treasury futures rise 3 ticks. Yields had fallen below 4% for the first week since late November.

The bond market was boosted on Friday after UK mortgage lender MFS went into administration due to allegations of financial irregularities. The collapse of MFS stoked credit concerns, as well-known banks were among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion).

The news hit banking stocks hard and combined with worries over AI-related stocks, Wall Street was impacted more widely.

Investors will also be faced with a torrent of U.S. economic data, including retail sales, the ISM manufacturing survey, and the vital payrolls report.

After a disappointing quarter, any weakness in the economy could undermine confidence. It would also reduce the chances of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The markets currently indicate a 53% probability of a easing in June, and around 60 basis points this year. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes; Wayne Cole)

(source: Reuters)