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Iron ore prices fall as steel margins shrink and spot liquidity thins
Iron ore futures fell on Tuesday as'shrinking margins for steelmakers in China, the top consumer, were squeezed by high prices and dampened purchasing appetite. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the day trading 0.24% lower, at 819.5 Yuan ($117.47). As of 0717 GMT, the benchmark for February iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange dropped?0.81%. Over the past five months, the benchmark has been?above an important psychological level of $100. Steelmakers resisted buying cargos at high prices, reducing the amount of liquidity on?the spot markets. Mysteel data showed that the total volume of seaborne iron ore traded on Monday fell by 52% from the previous trading day. a similar time, the portside stockpile that was swelling pushed up the price of the main steelmaking ingredient. Analysts at Nanhua Futures warned that the steel margins had shrunk and iron ore prices were higher than what was reasonable based on fundamentals. Both of these factors pose downside risks. Analysts predicted that after the price correction, the buying spree would likely resume. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell, by 2.5% and 1.08% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been largely weaker. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.09%. Stainless steel was down 0.54%, and wire rods were down 0.4%. Rebar was unchanged. ($1 = 6.9762 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv and Ruth Chai; Sumana Nady and Subhranshu Saghu)
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European shares reach record highs ahead of US inflation data
Orsted surged on news that a U.S. court had ruled the company could continue working on a Rhode Island project. STOXX 600 was up 0.1% at 0807 GMT. The DAX in Germany?was slightly higher during choppy trading and is poised to reach its longest winning streak ever since 2014 if current levels hold. The move adds new momentum as markets prepare for a key report on inflation that is expected to show a pickup in U.S. consumer price levels in December after a falsely low reading the previous month due to distortions relating to the government shut down. Orsted, a Danish offshore wind developer, saw its shares jump 5.7% in one month to an all-time high after a U.S. federal judge allowed the company to resume work on a project in Rhode Island that President Donald Trump had stopped along with four other projects last month. UBS Group stock was flat following the Financial Times report that Sergio Ermotti - who led the Swiss bank giant through the integration of its former rival Credit Suisse - plans to step down as CEO in April 2027. (Reporting and editing by Nivedita Battacharjee in Bengaluru)
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Copper prices fall on profit-taking before US inflation data
Prices of copper fell on Tuesday, as the expectations of rate cuts in the United States weakened ahead of inflation data. This sparked a round of profit-booking. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract closed the daytime trading 0.46% lower, at 102290 yuan (14,662.71) per ton. The contract reached a high of 104.880 yuan in the early part of the session. This is close to the record 105.500 yuan set last week. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.93% to $13,086?per ton at 0721 GMT. JP Morgan has said that it does not expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 2026, after softer job data. "Hopes for any rate cuts in the near future?have been dashed. Pulling the trigger on a price drop," said a Beijing based trader under condition of anonymity, as he was not authorized to speak to media. The price declines were curbed by the tight supply, partly due to the U.S. continuing its?copper exports at higher premiums. In a recent note, Natalie Scott-Gray of StoneX said that investors' sentiments about U.S. tariffs on copper will drive copper prices in the coming months. They will also focus more on the regional level of global stocks as well as the material entering the US. Investors also waited for inflation data from the United States to determine interest rates this year. SHFE Tin extended its rally for a third day, and reached an intraday record of 395,000 yuan. This was a record that had last been achieved on March 9, 2022, amid falling stock prices. Analysts at Ruida futures stated that the tightening of spot supply was due to a fall in domestic production as a result of equipment maintenance at smelters, and lower inventories. They said that the long-term?demand for metals used in semiconductors also gave rise to a positive trend. SHFE aluminium fell 0.85%, while nickel dropped 2.21% and lead 0.63%. Zinc gained 0.85%. Aluminium fell 0.71% on the LME, while nickel dropped 1.39%. Zinc dipped by 0.19%, lead increased by 0.17%, and tin remained unchanged. $1 = 6.9762 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Janane Venkatraman).
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Investors book profits as gold falls below the record price of $4,600/oz
As investors took profits, gold?prices dipped on Tuesday. This was after the precious metal hit a record high of $4,600/ounce in the previous session, amid increased geopolitical uncertainty and economic instability. As of 0646 GMT spot gold was trading 0.3% lower, at $4,593.81 an ounce, while U.S. futures for delivery in February were down 0.6%, to $4,587.10. Kyle Rodda is a senior analyst at Capital.com. He said, "There may be a few traders who are just looking to make a quick profit. But as we saw yesterday the drop in Asia hours can be purchased pretty quickly." In the previous session, the bullion rose more than 2% and reached an "all-time" high of $4629.94 after the Trump Administration opened a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. U.S. president Trump has further fueled geopolitical concerns by saying that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff when it comes to trade with the U.S. Washington is weighing its response to the largest anti-government demonstrations in recent years in the oil exporting nation. Iran's unrest is occurring as Trump exercises U.S. muscle internationally. He has captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and discussed acquiring Greenland through force or purchase. Non-yielding investments tend to do well when interest rates are low and geopolitical risks or economic risk spike. Citi has raised its price targets for the next three months to $5,000/oz of gold and $100/oz of silver, respectively. Citing strong investment momentum, and the many bullish factors that are likely to continue to be present during the first quarter, Citi cited. Citi stated in a report that "the ongoing shortages of silver and platinum group metals may also slightly worsen over the short-term due to a possible delay in Section 232 tariff decisions. This could ultimately pose large binary risk on trade flows and price," Citi noted. Spot silver was down by 0.1% to $84.86 an ounce, after reaching a record high of $86.22 per ounce on Monday. Spot platinum fell 1.9% to 2,299.20 an ounce, after reaching a record high of $2,478.50 per ounce on December 29. Palladium slid 2.6% to $1,793.0 per ounce. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy, Ronojoy Mazumdar and Harikrishnan Nair)
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CME updates its margining methodology for precious Metals
CME Group, the U.S. exchange operator, announced Monday that it will change the way 'it sets margins on precious metals in order to ensure adequate collateral coverage due to the current market volatility. CME announced in an announcement that, as of January 13, it will determine margins for gold and silver, platinum, palladium, and other metals based on percentages of the contract value. Previously, the margins were based on dollar values. Margin is the amount of money that a futures market participant must deposit to cover any default risk. In response to increased price volatility, exchanges typically increase margin requirements. Since last year, precious metals prices have experienced rapid fluctuations. Gold, silver and platinum all reached new highs. Gold surpassed the $4,600 mark for the first time on Monday. The bullish momentum was driven by a combination of safe-haven demands, bets made on U.S. interest rate cuts, central bank buying, dedollarisation trends and ETF purchases. The metal soared by almost 65% between 2025 and 2026, which was its highest annual increase since 1979. Silver and platinum prices also more than doubled in the past year. Both metals were boosted by multiple factors, including physical market shortages as well as increasing industrial demand. Palladium's gain for 2025 was?76% - its largest in 15 years. CME's latest notice sets the COMEX Gold Futures initial margins at 5%. COMEX Silver and Platinum Futures are set at 9%. Palladium Futures NYMEX margins are set at 11 %. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahaniwala; Swati verma, Bengaluru)
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Munich Re estimates that insured losses in 2025 will reach $108 billion due to wildfires and storms
Munich Re reported in a report on Tuesday that global insured losses from disasters dropped to $108 billion. The German reinsurer stated that the U.S. mainland avoided hurricanes for the first time since 10 years. The total estimate of Munich Re for the last year is $107 billion higher than Swiss Re's, which was published in December. Insured losses accounted for $98 billion, primarily due to damage from wildfires, severe storms, and floods. Munich Re said that this was more than the inflation-adjusted annual average of $60 billion for the last 10 years. Thomas Blunck is a member on the management board of Munich Re. He said that "the year started off with a rough start due to the high losses caused by wildfires in Los Angeles." "Sheer good fortune spared the United States of hurricane landfalls by 2025." Blunck said that the country still ranks first in terms of losses. Munich Re reported that the Los Angeles wildfires would be the most expensive insured disaster in 2025, followed by thunderstorms lasting for days in southern and central U.S. States in March. Tobias Grimm is the chief climate scientist at Munich Re. In a report published in June of last year, the European Environment Agency stated that between 2015 and 2024, the global average temperature was 1.24 to 1.28 degrees Celsius warmer than preindustrial levels. This decade is therefore considered as one of warmest on record. Total losses due to natural catastrophes, including those that are not covered by insurance policies, fell below the 10-year average in 2025 and were $224 billion, down from $368 in 2024. Munich Re has said that an?earthquake in Myanmar of 7.7 magnitude, which occurred in March and only a small portion of the damage was insured, is the second-most expensive disaster in terms of total losses by 2025. (Reporting and writing by Christina Amann; editing by Alexander Smith).
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US Tariffs on Iran's Trading Partners are 25%
Donald Trump, U.S. president on Monday Any country that trades with Iran faces a 25% tariff. This is because Tehran is battling its largest anti-government protests in many years. According to the latest data from the World Bank, Iran, a member country of OPEC, exports products to 147 partners. China, Iraq, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Germany, and other countries in East Asia are among its top trading partners. Fuel is Iran's largest export item in terms of value, whereas major imports include intermediate products, vegetables, machinery, and equipment. China is Iran's biggest trading partner. According to the World Bank, Iranian exports to China reached $22 billion by 2022. Fuels accounted for more than half the total. Imports to China were?at $15 Billion. According to Kpler's data, China will buy more than 80% (or more) of Iran’s oil by 2025. Due to U.S. sanctioning that aims to stop funding for Tehran's nuclear program, the pool of Iranian oil buyers is limited. According to India's commerce ministry, India's bilateral trade with Iran was $1.34 billion in the first 10 months 2025. Indian exports include fruits, vegetables and pharmaceutical products, as well as basmati rice. Turkey According to the World Bank, Iran's exports from Turkey to Turkey will reach $5.8 billion in 2022. Imports are expected to be $6.1 billion. GERMANY In 2022, Iran's exports from Germany to Germany totaled $178 million while imports reached $1.9 billion. SOUTH KOREAN According to the Korea International Trade Association, South Korea's exports from Iran between January 2025 and November 2025 were only marginal, at $129 millions, while imports were?at $1.6million during the same time period. According to the most recent trade data for Japan, which goes up until November 2025, Japan imported modest amounts of fruit, vegetables, textiles, and vehicles engines from Iran. (Reporting and compilation by Miyoungkim Kim, Heekyong Ya, John Geddie Shubham Kaalia, Akanksha Kushi, Jihoon Le, Heekyong Lee, Heekyong Yan, Shubham Kali, Akanksha Khaushi)
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Oil prices rise on Iran supply disruption fears
The oil price rose on Tuesday, as concerns about Iran and possible supply disruptions overshadowed the?prospects of an increased crude supply coming from Venezuela. Brent futures were up 22 cents or 0.3% to $64.09 per barrel at 0430 GMT. They are hovering around the two-month high reached in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed 23 cents or 0.4% to $59.73. The ING commodities analysts said that the price rise coincides with the intensifying protests against the Iranian regime, which raises the possibility of a U.S. intervention. Iran, one of the largest producers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting?Countries (OPEC), is facing its most violent anti-government protests in years. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, warned of possible military action?over the lethal violence towards protesters. A U.S. official said that Trump will meet with senior advisers to discuss options regarding Iran on Tuesday. President Obama said on Monday that countries that do business with Iran would be subject to a 25% tariff on all 'business done with the United States. Iran exports most of its oil. The ING strategists questioned whether the U.S. wanted to upset the apple cart again by imposing additional tariffs against China. Political developments are important for the oil market as Iran is a major producer that has been sanctioned. Any escalation in tensions could disrupt supply, or add a geopolitical premium. Barclays stated in a report that "unrest in Iran added approximately $3-4/barrel to the geopolitical premium on oil prices." Venezuela is expected to resume exports, which will also cause additional supply to hit the market. Trump announced last week that the Venezuelan government would be delivering up to 50 million barrels a day of oil to the U.S., subject to Western sanctions. The global oil trading houses are gaining ground on U.S. energy giants in the race to control Venezuelan oil flows. Ukrainian officials reported that geopolitical tensions in other parts of the world escalated when Russian forces attacked two of Ukraine's largest cities on Tuesday morning. The Trump administration has renewed its attacks against the Federal Reserve in the United States. This has raised concerns about the independence of the central bank and increased uncertainty regarding future economic conditions and the oil demand. Reporting by Anushree mukherjee from Bengaluru, and Jeslyn lerh from Singapore. Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Jamie Freed
Morning Bid Europe-Yen's Pain is Nikkei Gain as Records Tumble
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
Tokyo is back from its holiday in a big way, with the stock market rising by 3% and reaching a record high. Investors are 'welcoming a weakening of the yen as well as the possibility of more aggressive fiscal stimulus. Taiwan and South Korea also set records, while China reached a four-year high.
The yen also hit multi-year lows against the Swiss franc, euro and a variety of other currencies. Shorting the yen saved the dollar from embarrassment as it rose to 158.65 after Monday's wobble.
Tokyo officials stepped up verbal protests to "one-sided" moves in the yen, highlighting the risk of an intervention between?159.00 and 160.00. This encourages speculators, such as those who are shorting the yen, to sell it against other currencies like the AUD and MXN.
JPMorgan Chase & Bank of New York Mellon are the first two Wall Street companies to report earnings today. If bank management's guidance isn't bullish, there is a risk of disappointment.
Trump's announcement, which was unexpected by everyone, that credit card interest rates would be capped at 10% from January 20th has an additional wrinkle. Although it's unclear if he has the legal authority to do so, this hasn't stopped him yet.
Of course, banks warned that such a move could lead to millions of American families and small businesses being denied credit. The crunch is a tightening of monetary policy. Ironic, given that Trump wants the Fed to lower rates even further.
Analysts warn of potential risks following November's shockingly low result, which was skewed downward by the lack of data.
The median forecast is for core inflation to increase by 2.7% annually in December. However, both JPMorgan and Goldman expect it to rise by 2.8%. This is because some data distortions have been removed. CPI is actually 'biased down until April, when housing costs may spike.
Even though the market has given up on the possibility of a rate cut in January, the Fed is still expected to do so this month. A high CPI, however, could reduce the chances.
The Supreme Court will have another chance to decide on Trump's emergency tariffs on Wednesday, but it appears that the justices rarely make such important decisions so early in the calendar year. April or even June seems more likely.
Next Wednesday, the SCOTUS will hear oral arguments about Trump's attempts to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday.
US Dec CPI (CPI), new home sales and weekly average earnings
(source: Reuters)