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As Trump-Fed dispute deepens, stocks wobble and the dollar drops

Dollar fell and U.S. Equity Futures?eased after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell claimed that the Trump administration had threatened him with criminal?indictment. This stoked concerns about the independence of the central bank.

S&P futures fell 0.5%, and gold reached a?another?record?high as a reaction to the intensification of the dispute between U.S. president Donald Trump and Fed.

The Swiss Franc gained 0.4%, to 0.7979 dollars. The euro rose 0.17% at $1.1656. The news is unsettling for traders, but the immediate impact on interest rates is not clear.

Fed funds futures has added about three basis point more in cuts in this year. This is small, but it points to the possibility that the Fed will be pushed to become more aggressive.

Gold prices rose to a record $4,600 per ounce due in part to geopolitical tensions. Unrest in Iran also boosted precious metals and supported oil.

European stock futures dipped, but Asian stocks rose Monday, led by the tech sector. Data on Friday revealed that the U.S. labour market was not rapidly deteriorating despite a slowdown in employment growth.

The Japanese markets were closed on a public holiday.

TRUMP VS POWELL

Powell claimed that the Trump administration threatened him with a criminal prosecution and served grand jury subpoenas for Congressional testimony he provided last summer about a Fed building project. He called this action a "pretext", a way to pressure the central bank into lowering interest rates.

These developments represent a dramatic intensification of the conflict between Powell and Trump that dates back to Powell's first year as chairman in 2018.

Andrew Lilley is the chief rates strategist for Barrenjoey Investment Bank, a Sydney-based investment bank.

"He's only doing this because he knows he won't be able to control the Fed. He wants to exert all of the pressure he can."

Investors won't like it, but this shows that Trump doesn't have any other levers. The majority of FOMC members want the cash rate to remain at that level.

DOLLAR IN SCRATCHHAIRS

Even against currencies that are typically considered risky, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar, the dollar's reaction was the most pronounced. The dollar index fell 0.3% and is on course for its biggest?one day decline since mid-December.

The dollar's 2025 was a disaster. It dropped more than 9% compared to major peers as interest rates differentials shrank as the Fed cut its rates and concerns about?U.S. Fiscal deficits and political unrest were a major concern.

Ray Attrill, head of currency strategies at National Australia Bank, said: "This open war between the Fed and U.S. Administration... is clearly not good for the U.S. Dollar."

Trump's threats of intervening in Iran where protests are escalating against the clerical regime have helped oil prices to hold their recent gains. They also highlighted the geopolitical risks that will be looming for the coming year.

Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices, were down 40 cents at $62.90 per barrel after recent sharp gains.

In the second week of 2019, we will see U.S. inflation figures, Chinese trade figures and an array of U.S. earnings starting with JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday and BNY. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus, Jamie Freed and Ankur Banerjee)

(source: Reuters)