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Fed's cut-bets help shares end November with a firmer footing

The global stock market entered a volatile final session on Friday as an outage in the exchange operator CME Group caused trading to be halted on a wide range of futures contracts on currencies, commodities and Treasuries, further reducing liquidity.

The power outage

Investors from the United States were due to return after their Thanksgiving break for a short session on Friday.

The STOXX 600 index in Europe was essentially unchanged for the day. It had gained 0.5% during November, its lowest monthly performance since June.

The S&P 500 will experience its first monthly drop since April. It fell 0.4% in November. However, it recovered from a two-month-low a week earlier, which implied a 5% month-to date decline.

Choppy November

The global equity markets were unusually volatile in November of this year. Concerns about the sky-high valuations of tech stocks shook the markets, while a U.S. shutdown ended after 43 days. Bitcoin, which is a good indicator of risk appetite among investors, fell 16% in November. Federal Reserve is cautious due to lack of data from government shutdown. However, heavyweights such as Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and New York Fed president John Williams, have expressed support for a cut in rates next month. This has been key to the recovery of stocks.

Samy Chaar, an economist at Lombard Odier, said that volatility is usually expected in September and October. We've seen it in November but have recovered the majority of it.

"We had estimated a December cut of 30%, but now we are at over 80%. "I think that's a very good reason for the rally at month's end," he said.

CME FedWatch shows that Fed funds futures indicate an 85% probability of a rate reduction next month. This is a dramatic change from the 30% chance a week ago.

BOJ HIKE IS IN VIEW

The dollar gained a little ground against a basket major currencies but was heading for its biggest weekly drop since July. It ended the month almost unchanged.

The Japanese yen is flat at 156.37 to the dollar after rebounding from last week's 10-month-low of 157.9. Investors await the Japanese government's intervention after weeks of verbal browbeating to stop the currency's slide.

The data showed that Tokyo's core consumer prices rose by 2.8% from November of last year, which was above the forecasted 2.7% increase. This is just one of many data points that has kept the bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike alive. Markets are now pricing in a rate hike by the BOJ as early as next month. As the yen fell and political pressures faded, more BOJ board members have signalled a rate hike.

In a note, MUFG strategists stated that "today is also the end of the month and FX performance will often be determined by these less predictable flows." This week, the Aussie and kiwi have both seen big gains, with each up by 1.1% and 1.8%. Markets bet on the fact that rate-cutting cycle in both countries is nearing its end. The minutes of the European Central Bank meeting show that policymakers were also not in a hurry to lower rates.

The euro slipped 0.2%, to $1.157. This represents a 0.3% gain for the month.

OIL, GOLD Up

The U.S. was pushing for a peace plan to end the Ukraine conflict, which led to a rise in oil prices on Friday. Brent crude futures increased 0.3% to $63.55 per barrel, after falling 2.3% in November.

The spot gold price was up by 0.2% to $4,166 per ounce. This brings the monthly gain to a whopping 4.5%. However, they are still a long way from the record high $4,381.

(source: Reuters)