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Bessent: Chinese soybean purchases are on schedule, according to CNBC
The Chinese purchase of American soybeans is "right on time", U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated on Tuesday. He cited an agreement that Beijing will buy 87.5 millions metric tons of U.S. products over the next three-and-a-half years. Bessent, in an interview with CNBC said that the U.S.-China relationship is on a positive track. Donald Trump praised the "extremely solid" relationship between China and the United States on Monday after a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The call was made weeks after the leaders of China and South Korea met in South Korea to agree on a framework agreement for a trade deal. Bessent stated that Trump and Xi may meet four times in the next year. Trump could attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, which China will host in 2026. Xi is in the United States to attend the annual gathering of the Group of 20 Industrialized Nations. Bessent stated that the two leaders would also visit each other's country. Reporting by Susan Heavey, Doina Chiacu and Andrew Heavens; Editing and Emelia Sithole Matarise
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Russell Russell: China can help Asia's diesel market, which is tightening up.
China could help ease the tight diesel market in Asia in December by increasing exports to compensate for reduced shipments from Indian refiners due to sanctions on Russian crude oil. According to trading sources the exports of China's diesel could reach 4.5 million barrels by December as refiners make use of high margins to produce this transport fuel. If the December loading cargoes rise to the level expected, this would be the best month since August. It is also a big jump from the forecast of commodity analysts Kpler that November exports will total 2.76 million barrels. China has the second largest oil refinery capacity in the World, but it uses less than 80% at the major state-owned facilities, and even less for smaller independent processors. Exports are also regulated by government quotas. These are primarily based on ensuring the domestic security of fuel, rather than market forces which allow refiners a higher profit margin when margins increase. China's refiners may still have enough quotas to increase December exports for diesel, jet fuel and other middle-distillate fuels. China has issued quotas for 8,395 millions metric tons of diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline. This brings the total amount for the year up to 40,195 million tons. That's about the same as 41.0 million for 2024. According to data released by the government on November 18, refiners exported 29,91 million tons of these three fuels during the first 10 month of the year. The quotas are available for exports of about 10,29 million tonnes of each of the three fuels in November and December. Kpler predicts that November exports for the three products will be approximately 1.58 million tonnes. While this number may increase as more cargoes arrive at the end of the calendar month, it's clear that refiners have enough remaining quotas available to boost December exports. MARGINS ROBUST FOR FUEL The refining margins of diesel and gasoline are at their highest levels in two years. Singapore's profit from making a barrel gasoil (the building block of diesel) ended Monday at $24.37, down from the previous close of $25.97, as traders factored in the possibility that Chinese exports could increase next month. The spread reached $31.25 per barrel on 19 November, the highest level since 23 September and up 140% from the lowest point in 2025 at $13.05 on 25 March. Profit margins on a barrel gasoline On Monday, the price was $14.54, up from $14.42. The price of a barrel had risen to $17.71 on November 14. This was the highest level since August 29, 2023. It is also almost five times higher than the lowest point in 2025, which was $3.68 a barrel. The recent improvement in the refining margins is partly due to the weakening of exports to India. According to Kpler, shipments of jet fuel, diesel and gasoline to the South Asian country are expected to fall to 4,34 million tons by November. This will be the lowest level since April, and the lowest so far for 2025, which was 5.54 million tonnes in September. In India, several refiners have been forced to look for alternative crudes in order to replace the Russian oil they were buying at a discount before the latest U.S. sanction on Russian oil companies. India's refiners are likely to find alternative crude oil supplies, so the decline in refined product exports is only likely to be a temporary phenomenon. While there may be a market gap, China appears to be the best placed country to benefit from additional gasoline and diesel. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Stellantis Chairman warns that the European auto industry faces an "irreversible demise"
John Elkann, the chairman of Stellantis, warned on Tuesday that Europe's auto industry faces an "irreversible" decline. Elkann, speaking in Turin at an event to mark the beginning of mass production of the new Fiat 500 hybrid small car, said that the entire industry had drafted a package for the European Commission on how to give automakers greater flexibility with emissions targets. This would allow the sector avoid a decline. As part of the review of EU carbon emission regulations for the auto industry, which is scheduled to take place on December 10, the European Commission will present a package proposals. Elkann said earlier this month that Stellantis was backed A string of measures The EU should support the European automotive industry. These proposals include allowing plug in hybrids, range-extenders and alternative fuels after 2035; averaging the interim carbon reduction targets fixed for 2030 across several years; introducing a large scrappage scheme for existing cars and adjusting regulation to favor production of small vehicles. Gianluca Ficco, UILM union president, said that the Fiat 500 hybrid's production was a positive development for Italian output. He added that EU rules need to be changed for the automotive industry "before it is too late", to avoid harsh consequences on the industry and its jobs.
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IAEA: In the event of peace in Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant needs a cooperation agreement
Rafael Grossi, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that a peace agreement would require a special status for Zaporizhzhia and an agreement on cooperation between Russia and Ukraine. In the first few weeks of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces captured the plant, Europe’s largest with its six reactors. Although the plant does not produce electricity, both sides accuse each other of military action that compromises nuclear safety. He said that "whatever the outcome, you'll need to have a collaborative arrangement or a co-operative atmosphere." Grossi's remarks come at a time when the Trump administration is making a new, intense push to end war. U.S. officials and Ukrainian officials try to close the gap between them on a draft plan of peace that includes provisions regarding Zaporizhzhia’s future. Grossi warned that a nuclear disaster is possible without peace. In an interview, he stated that "until the war ends or there is ceasefire, or the guns have been silenced, something could go very, very badly." "No operator can operate a nuclear plant if across the river is another country that is resisting and could take action." According to a draft of the U.S. backed 28-point plan for Ukraine seen by, it proposes restarting the nuclear plant under IAEA oversight, with the electricity output being split equally between Russia, and Ukraine. Grossi stated that Ukraine and Russia would decide at some point whether the plant was to be shared or not. "But it is obvious that the IAEA will be indispensable in this situation." Since 2022, the six reactors in Zaporizhzhia have been cold-shutdown. They rely on external powerlines and emergency systems to avoid a blackout. IAEA continues to maintain a presence on the site in order to monitor safety despite ongoing shelling. (Reporting and editing by Ros Russell. Karen Lema)
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Gold drops from more than one-week highs ahead of delayed US data
The dollar held steady on Tuesday as gold prices fell from a peak of over a week. Investors waited for delayed U.S. data that may help refine expectations about future Federal Reserve rate reductions. After a surge of more than 2% the previous session, spot gold fell 0.2%, to $4,130.51 an ounce, by 1140 GMT. Prices had risen to their highest levels since November 14 earlier in the day. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were 0.8% higher, at $4.127.40 an ounce. The dollar hovered near last week's six-month high. This tempered bullion's gains as a stronger dollar makes gold more costly for holders of other currencies. Nitesh Sha, commodities strategist at WisdomTree, said: "We have seen a broad rise across all assets. This is partly due to the markets reassessing when the Fed will cut rates next. The shutdown has delayed the release of new data, which is adding to the volatility. However, the fragility of the market itself continues to be in gold's favor. Even today's correction looks like a normal correction after the prices rose too quickly." Later in the day, the U.S. releases retail sales data and producer price data. The shutdown delayed both datasets. Investors are expecting to get a better understanding of the Fed rate path. CME data shows that the markets are pricing in an 81% probability of a rate cut for December and an 86% chance of one for January. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the labor market has softened to the point where another quarter-point reduction in December is justified. However, further steps will depend on the data. John Williams, the New York Fed president, had said that rates may fall "in a near-term." Low interest rates are a good thing for non-yielding gold. Shah said that a dollar with a structurally weaker structure could push gold to $4,700 in 2026. Palladium fell 0.1%, to $1,394.32, while platinum was unchanged at $1,543.59. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Krishna Chandra Eluri, and Sherin Elizabeth Varighese from Bengaluru)
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Kpler data indicates that India's November Russian crude oil imports are set to reach a five-month high.
India's oil exports to Russia are expected to reach their highest level for five months in November, according to preliminary data from Kpler, as refiners scrambled to secure barrels before a U.S. date to stop transactions with Russian oil producers sanctioned by the United States. India, which is the third largest oil importer in the world, was the biggest purchaser of discounted Russian crude shipped by sea after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. According to the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit South Asia next month. His last visit was in December of 2021, just a few months after he ordered troops to Ukraine. The United States, Britain and the European Union have all tightened sanctions against Moscow in response to the war. Washington's most recent measures target the two biggest oil producers of the country, Rosneft, and Lukoil. The deadline for buyers of Russian oil to end their dealings with two companies was November 21. RUSSIAN OIL IMPORTS WILL RISE BEFORE DRIVING DOWN IN DECEMBER According to preliminary data from the ship tracking agency Kpler India's oil purchases are expected to increase to 1.855 millions bpd from 1.48million bpd last month, defying many predictions of a drop in light of the new sanctions imposed against Rosneft, and Lukoil. This would be its highest level since July, when it imported 1,52 million bpd. A trade source stated that "Russian supplies are expected to be very high in November, as many refineries have been trying to fill their stocks before the U.S. sanction deadline. This is also due to a rule that will allow oil products to be produced for the EU market using non-Russian crude oil starting 2026." On condition of anonymity, they did not have the right to speak with the media, sources in the trade and refining industry said that imports fell to their lowest level in at least three year in December as refiners turned to alternative methods to avoid violating Western sanctions. Separately the EU set a deadline of 21 January after which it would refuse fuel from refineries who handled Russian crude in the 60 days following the bill of loading. One of the sources in the refinery industry said that the recent U.S. sanction has caused Indian state refiners to be "extremely careful" as a result of bank scrutiny. India will likely receive 600,000 to 650 000 barrels of Russian oil per day by December. Source: These include imports from Indian Oil Corp., Nayara Energy, and the delivery of certain November-loading shipments for Reliance Industries. The source cited preliminary lifting plans by Indian companies. MOST INDIAN REFINERS STOP RUSSIAN BUYS The majority of Indian refiners such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp, HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd have stopped purchasing Russian oil. Reliance Industries Ltd. has announced that it will be processing any cargoes arriving after November 20, and have already loaded Russian oil "precommitted".
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Energy Minister: Three companies are vying to acquire assets from Lukoil in Romania
The Energy Minister of Romania, Bogdan Ivan, said that three companies are interested in purchasing the Romanian assets owned by Russian Lukoil. They have been negotiating with the company directly. Lukoil operates 320 petrol stations across Romania. It is the third-largest refinery in the country and has offshore exploration rights to a part of the Black Sea. Ivan, a journalist for the online publication profit.ro, was quoted by the publication as saying: "At this moment, three companies have expressed an interest in acquiring Lukoil Romanian assets - both the refinery, and the petrol stations. They are currently negotiating with the holding." "We were notified about a private company deal a few months ago. We are in touch, and it is our interest that the transaction be completed as quickly as possible." Romania is working on a bill that would allow it to temporarily control assets in the event of a crisis. The refinery has been shut down to perform maintenance and officials in Romania have stated that the European Union state is well-stocked to ensure the fuel supply on the market will not be affected. Petrotel, a Lukoil refinery in Romania, accounts for about one-quarter of the Romanian market. (Reporting and editing by Kirsten Doovan; Luiza Ilie)
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US to close rare earths gap; others less so
The U.S. will be able to wean itself off Chinese rare Earths thanks to a multi-billion dollar pipeline, but it falls short of breaking Beijing’s grip on the sector in most other countries. According to an analysis of data from the International Energy Agency, China will still be supplying roughly 60% of all rare earths used in magnet manufacturing by 2030. The U.S., on the other hand, is on track to meet 95% of their own demand with domestic sources. These projections are based on the assumption that today's pipe is constructed and scaled according to schedule. Experts point out the long time needed to build mines and refineries as well as the difficulty in finding equipment and skilled workers outside of China. The IEA's estimates also focus on only four of the seventeen rare earth elements. China will continue to dominate the processing of heavy rare Earths, which is a small but important subgroup of elements. The West, as a group, will still be reliant on China in 2030 for 91%. Neha Mukherjee is the research manager for Benchmark Minerals. She said, "By 2030 we will be in trouble." It's just that if these projects are brought online, then we would be less in trouble than we are now.
Stocks gain from Fed cuts; dollar stable
Investors piled into technology stocks on Tuesday, despite concerns that the sector was overheating.
Investors believe that the AI-fueled tech boom will continue.
MSCI's All-World Index rose for a 3rd day, lifting it off the two-month-lows of last week. Shares in Europe increased by 0.2%, and U.S. Stock Index Futures were either unchanged or slightly higher, after Monday's rally.
RATE CUTTING BETS - RISING RATE
The yield on 10-year Treasury Notes dropped nearly one basis point to 4.03%. Two-year yields, which are usually in line with traders’ expectations of lower Fed Fund rates, were stable at 3.49% in Europe after dropping 2.5 basis in the previous session.
After Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated on Monday that data available indicated that the U.S. employment market was still weak enough to warrant a further quarter-point reduction, the prospect of an interest rate cut in the United States is increasing. His comments followed those made by New York Fed president John Williams who said late Friday night that a rate cut could be possible in December.
According to CME's FedWatch Tool the markets are now pricing in an 81% chance that a quarter point cut will be made next month. This is up from 42.4% one week ago. The U.S. Central Bank meets on December 9-10.
Investors will have the opportunity to review delayed data about retail sales, wholesale prices, consumer confidence and home prices on Tuesday. However, these numbers may not be significant in determining what the Fed does next month.
Dollar's impact has been limited by the recent shift in expectations regarding interest rates. The dollar has gained this month against all major currencies except for the offshore Chinese Yuan, which is up around 0.5%.
This suggests to me that the FX markets remain in a mindset to trade on growth differentials above anything else. With the U.S. Economy outperforming its peers and likely to continue to do so until 2026, it bodes well moving forward," Pepperstone Senior Research Strategist Michael Brown said.
Tensions over Japan
The dollar is gaining against the Japanese yen. It's at its lowest level in 10 months, and officials in Tokyo are worried about intervening to help it.
The dollar fell 0.3% in the last hour of trading at 156.43 after gaining 1.6% during November. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1528.
The ongoing dispute between Tokyo and Beijing is adding to the tensions around Japanese markets. This was over comments made by Japan's prime minister Sanae Takaichi in November, stating that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would trigger a Japanese response.
Takaichi spoke with Donald Trump on Tuesday after his Monday call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. She claimed that Trump had explained U.S. China relations to her.
Trump announced on Monday that he will travel to Beijing in early April. This was interpreted as another sign of the improvement in diplomatic and political ties between China and the United States following their truce with respect to trade.
The U.S. bond and stock markets will close on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday. They will reopen on Friday for a half-day.
ALPHABET HEADS FOR $4 TRILLION
Alphabet's shares rose another 4% during premarket trading following a report by The Information that Facebook parent Meta was in talks with the company about using its AI chips in data centres starting in 2027, and renting chips for next year.
Brent crude futures dropped 0.4% to $63.14 per barrel on concerns that global supplies could increase significantly relative to demand in the next year. Gold fell 0.1%, to $4,135 per ounce. However, it was still on track for a gain of nearly 3% in November. (Reporting and editing by Scott Murdoch, Amanda Cooper and Frances Kerry.
(source: Reuters)