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Stocks reach record highs on tech boost as Fed and earnings are in focus

The global shares rose to a record intraday on Tuesday, helped by signs that trade tensions have cooled between the U.S.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its policy on Wednesday, kicking off a week of announcements by central banks around the world, including those in Japan, Canada, and Europe. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the Fed is widely expected at this meeting to reduce interest rates. Markets are pricing in a 99.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.

The markets have been boosted by expectations of a lower interest rate path from the central banks, as well as recent signs of an easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. This has sent stocks higher, and kept the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury anchored near multi-month lows.

The ongoing U.S. shutdown has also led to an absence of economic data that investors can parse.

Investors have turned to other sources for information on the state of the economy due to the lack of official data. The ADP National Employment Report released its first weekly estimate on Tuesday. It showed that private payrolls in the United States increased by 14,250 jobs per week over the last four weeks.

Subadra Rajappa is the head of U.S. Rates Strategy at Societe Generale, New York. She said: "Volatility was extraordinarily low, which in some ways, surprised me, but it appears to be very stable and you are seeing a continued rally in risky asset classes."

"It's been difficult to read the economy, particularly for the Fed meeting. You have lower yields, a more favourable financial environment, a drop in inflation, and a somewhat stable job market."

At their meetings, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan will likely keep rates largely unchanged.

DOW LEADS GAIN AMONG MAJOR INDEXES Wall Street closed with another record. This was boosted by a 2% gain in Microsoft following a deal it made that allowed OpenAI to restructure as a public benefit company while giving the megacap a 27% share in ChatGPT. Also providing a boost was a 5% jump in Nvidia after CEO Jensen Huang said the artificial-intelligence chip leader will build seven new supercomputers for the U.S. Department of Energy, and the company has $500 billion in bookings for its AI chips. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 161.78 points or 0.34% to 47,706.37. The S&P 500 gained 15.73 points or 0.23% to 6,890.89, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 190.04 or 0.80% to 23,827.49.

Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage. He added that "enthusiasm" about Trump's Asian visit has also been expressed. Stocks have been rising as U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping meet to discuss a framework to halt the tougher U.S. trade tariffs and China’s export restrictions on rare earths. This could ease market concerns about escalating a trade war.

This week, Microsoft, Alphabet Apple, Amazon, and Meta Platforms will report their earnings. Investors will be watching closely to see if the results justify high valuations.

More than four out of five S&P companies beat expectations

LSEG data shows that 86.7% of the 180 S&P companies who have announced earnings up to Tuesday morning have surpassed analyst expectations. MSCI's global stock index rose 21.18 points or 0.12% to 1,013.68. It had previously reached a record high of 1,015.73, while the pan-European STOXX 600 closed down 0.22%.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 2.1 basis points, to 3.976%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) fell 0.07% at 98.70. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.11% to $1.1656. The dollar fell 0.52% against the Japanese yen to 152.07, after comments from a Japanese Minister and U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent helped ease some concerns over a more expansive fiscal policy and monetary policies in Japan.

The value of the pound fell by 0.45%, to $1.3275.

U.S. crude oil settled at $60.15 a barrel, down 1.89%, while Brent settled at $64.40 a barrel, down 1.86%. Investors weighed the impact of U.S. sanction on Russia's largest oil companies, along with a possible OPEC+ production plan.

(source: Reuters)