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The Russian rouble falls after the central bank suggests more rate cuts for 2025

Friday, the Russian rouble weakened against the U.S. Dollar and China's Yuan. This was in response to central bank hints that it could still be possible for the key rate to fall this year, despite the inflationary tax increases included in the draft budget.

Elvira Nabullina, the governor of the central bank, stated on October 9th that it was possible to reduce the rate from its current level of 17 % and that decisions were not made in advance.

The central bank reduced the key rate last month by just 1 percentage point. This was less than expected. Analysts expect the central bank to stop further cuts this year in order to reduce an inflation spike that is expected to occur early 2026 due to the VAT increase.

In recent weeks, such expectations have supported the rouble as high interest rates make owning assets denominated in rouble more appealing. Analysts said that the prospect of further cuts has reversed this trend.

Analysts at BCS brokerage said that "the head of the central banks sees room for rate cuts in the future - this is bearish for the currency."

LSEG data on over-the counter trade shows that by 1000 GMT the rouble had weakened 0.1%, to 81.25 dollars. The rouble fell by 0.3% at the Moscow Stock Exchange to 11.35 yuan, where the yuan was the most traded currency.

Analysts noted on October 8, that Russia's index of stocks fell 4% after Sergei Ryabkov, the Deputy Foreign minister stated that the momentum from the Alaska Summit between Russia and the U.S. in finding a peace agreement for Ukraine was largely exhausted.

Ryabkov downplayed the importance of his comments for markets on October 9, saying that "geopolitical risk is no greater than before; they're at a plateau." The rouble did not react in a significant way to the comments of the deputy foreign minister.

BCS analysts commented on Ryabkov’s recent comments: "Yesterday, the geopolitical element weakened." "And this is a positive factor." (Reporting and editing by Maju Sam; Gleb Brynski)

(source: Reuters)