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India's silver exports fell to a three-year low after import restrictions in May
India's silver exports fell 87% from a year ago to the lowest level in over three years. This was revealed by government data on Monday, after the largest consumer of the metal in the world tightened import restrictions. India's lower imports, which meet more than 80% its silver demand by purchasing it overseas, could have a negative impact on global prices while also helping to narrow India's trade surplus and reduce pressure on the rupee. According to data compiled by Ministry of Commerce and Industry, silver imports dropped from $566.22 millions in May of last year to $75.57million. Volume-wise, imports fell?94% on an annual basis to 33 metric tonnes, the lowest level since February 2023. India restricted imports in May of'silver' in almost all forms. In the first week of this month, India tightened its rules by adding silver powder and grain to the restricted category. In an effort to reduce the pressure on foreign exchange reserves and curb imports of precious metals, the government also increased import duties for gold and silver from 6% to 15%. "There's demand, but due to restrictions it has become more difficult to import, and the local premiums are starting to increase," said a Mumbai dealer for a private bank that imports bullion. India spent $12 billion in total on silver imports during the financial year 2025/26 that ended in March. This is a record amount compared to $4.8 billion just a year ago. Silver is used for jewellery, coins, bars, and industrial applications from solar energy to electronic devices. Inflows to silver ETFs have reached a record level. India imports silver from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Britain, and China. (Reporting and editing by Sahal Muhammad; Rajendra Jadhav)
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Gold gains over 3% after US and Iran reach a peace agreement
Gold prices rose by more than 3% on Monday. They reached a 'over a week peak, after the U.S. and Iran agreed to end their war. This eased expectations for higher interest rates. As of 10:35 am EDT (1435 GMT), spot gold was up by 3.3%, at $4.356.79 an ounce. It had earlier reached its highest level since June 5. U.S. Gold Futures rose 3.3% to $4 378.70. The index of the?U.S. The dollar index fell by 0.2% making metals in greenbacks more affordable to holders of other currencies. Although still only a framework agreement, the deal ending the war and opening the Strait of Hormuz was a major breakthrough that sent oil prices down. The official signing of the memorandum is set for Friday in Switzerland. The gold market has priced out the conflict and is now moving on. The news of the 'peace deal' brought down Treasury yields and the dollar, as well as oil. These were the major inflation and cross-asset risks, according to Phillip Streible. Chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Since the Iran conflict began, gold has been under pressure as rising energy prices have increased the likelihood of interest rate increases. This tends to weigh down on the non-yielding investment. CME FedWatch shows that after the framework agreement, traders reduced the odds of an increase in U.S. interest rates in December from almost 70% to?52.5%, down from nearly 70% the previous week. Markets are now looking for hints?on interest rate outlook at the Federal Reserve policy meeting on June 16-17, which will be Chair Kevin Warsh’s first as the head of the Fed. Streible said that the next move in gold's price is largely determined by Warsh and his tone. The deputy prime minister announced that Singapore will introduce a central bank gold vaulting service and an over-the counter gold clearing system. (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Jan Harvey) (Reporting from Ashitha Shivaprasad, Bengaluru. Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Jan Harvey.
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Gold prices rise as US and Iran reach peace agreement
Gold prices rose for the third straight session on Monday. They reached a high of?nearly one week after Iran and United States agreed that their war would be halted. This agreement eased expectations about higher interest rates. Gold spot rose 3%, to $4,344.77 an ounce at 08:42 am EDT (1242 GMT), reaching its highest level since the 9th of June. U.S. Gold Futures? climbed 3% to 4,366.80. The U.S. Dollar Index was down by 0.2% making metals priced in greenbacks more affordable to holders of other currencies. The deal, while still in its framework stage, was the most significant breakthrough. It would reopen?Strait of Hormuz and send oil prices down. The official signing of the memorandum is set for Friday in Switzerland. The gold market has priced out the conflict. The news of the peace agreement brought down Treasury yields, oil, and the dollar, and these were the major inflation and cross-asset risks, said Phillip Streible. Chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Since the Iran conflict began gold has been under pressure as rising energy prices have increased the likelihood of interest rate increases, which tends to weigh down on the non-yielding assets. CME FedWatch shows that traders reduced the odds of an increase in the U.S. interest rate for December from almost 70% last week to just 54.8%. As markets seek clues about the future of interest rates, they are now looking to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on June 16-17, which will be Chair Kevin Warsh’s first as the head. Streible added that Warsh's tone and what he will say about the interest rate path are what will move the markets. The deputy prime minister announced that Singapore would?establish a gold clearing system over the counter and?introduce gold vaulting services by central banks. (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber) (Reporting and editing by Shailesh Kuber in Bengaluru)
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Vance hopes to release the text of an agreement to stop war in Iran by this week
?U.S. Vice President JDVance stated on Monday that he hoped the text of an agreement to halt the war in Iran and reopen the 'Strait Of Hormuz would be released this coming week. Further negotiations regarding the details of the deal were scheduled to continue. Vance said in an interview with CNBC that the United States expected the waterway to be open for a long time without tolls. He said, "Our expectation is the Strait?is?going to be opened toll-free for the long term." This is the kind of thing we will figure out during these technical negotiations. You know there are many important?details that need to be worked out. We'll sit down at the table to discuss them and find a way forward. News that the U.S., Iran and other countries had reached an agreement to end the war and reopen strait brought relief to the markets. However, the deal may depend on a ceasefire in Lebanon and postpones discussions on Tehran's nuclear programme. The deal, while still a framework for a resolution of the conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and shattered the energy markets ever since the joint U.S./Israeli'strikes against Iran in February began, was the 'biggest step forward towards resolving this conflict. Vance stated that Iran's foreign minister and House Speaker will represent Iran in Switzerland at the signing on Friday. Many details of the deal are yet to be sorted out. He did not specify who would be representing the U.S. Reporting by Susan Heavey, Katharine Jackson and Hugh Lawson; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne & Hugh Lawson
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Sweden's Vattenfall selects Rolls-Royce SMR nuclear power project
The Swedish utility 'Vattenfall' announced on Monday that it had selected Rolls-Royce SMR for the supply of a series small modular nuclear reactors. GE 'Vernova, a rival. The Swedish parliament passed legislation last year to finance the construction of a new generation reactors. This is the first time in more than 40-years that a new reactor has been built in Sweden. According to the government, this is essential for energy security as well as achieving zero net emissions by 2045. In 'August 2025, Vattenfall said that its Videberg Kraft venture intended to order five GE Vernova GE BWRX-300 reactors or three Rolls-Royce Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to produce a total output of?close to 1,500 MW. Vattenfall CEO Anna Borg said at a press briefing that the selection of the British over the U.S. group makes Sweden part of a broader European initiative and gives the Nordic country its?first?new nuclear energy in?over forty years. Borg stated that "this project will be made into reality." Rolls-Royce said that each SMR would produce enough electricity to run a million households for over 60 years. Videberg Kraft is 80% owned by Vattenfall and the remaining 20% by a group from Sweden's biggest companies. The company plans to build a new nuclear power capacity on the site of Ringhals, the existing nuclear facility in south-west Sweden. The right-of centre government in Sweden wants to revive nuclear energy amid concerns about energy security. It has forecast that electricity demand will double by 2045 and plans to acquire a 60% majority stake in Videberg Kraft, pending approval from parliament. Private investors are deterred by the high costs and risks. The government is offering up to 440 billion crowns (47 billion dollars) in loans, 40-year guarantees, and support for the management of nuclear waste. This will help spur the construction at least 5,000MW of new nuclear power. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik.)
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Aluminium drops to its lowest level since late March due to Iran deal
On Monday, aluminium prices dropped to their lowest levels in?two and a half months as a U.S. - Iran framework agreement aimed at ending their war improved prospects of deliveries from Gulf -producers. However, shippers remained cautious about transiting through 'the strait of Hormuz. By 1120 GMT the benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange had fallen 3.2% to $3,422.50 per metric ton, after having reached $3,408, which was its lowest level since March 30. U.S. officials and Iranian officials announced that they had reached a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The pact sent oil prices down but left?the fate of Tehran’s nuclear program up to future negotiations. On Friday, the memorandum is expected to be signed in Switzerland. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would boost prospects for exports of aluminium from the Gulf region. The region's metal producers, who account for 9% of the global supply, use this important waterway to transport their metal to international markets and to import raw materials. It could take several weeks for shippers to rebuild their confidence and navigation will only resume once safety has been assured. Alastair Munro is a senior base metals analyst at broker Marex. He said that the selloff in aluminium last week was also caused because the price fell below the 50-day average. This technical level, currently at $3.575, is regarded as 'key. The 100-day moving averge at $3,396 is the next level of support. The discount for the LME cash aluminium contract compared to the benchmark three-month contract is set to expire on Wednesday. Last week, the premium was $105 per ton. Other LME metals rose by 0.3%, to $13,734.50 per?ton. It had previously reached $13,893.50. This was the highest level since June 5. A fall in oil prices has eased inflationary fears fueled by energy and the dollar. LME zinc dropped 0.2% to $3.577.50. Lead rose 0.3% at $1.970.50. Tin gained 2.4% at $55,025, and nickel increased 0.9% at $17,980. (Reporting and editing by Shilpa Majumdar; Reporting by Polina Devtt)
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ETM is looking for other Spanish mines while it awaits Greenland Rare Earth resolution
Energy Transition Minerals hopes to expand in Spain's Galicia Province as it waits for a resolution of the?legal challenges regarding its massive rare earths project on Greenland. Daniel Mamadou said in an interview with? In an interview, Daniel Mamadou told? Mamadou stated that "Galicia has an ambitious plan to revive its mining industry." He added that up to 52 mines will be put out to tender for development. "We think that the Penouta operation can be at the heart of an expansion of Galicia... We might be able to?benefit from economies of size and position." ETM has not provided any details on the expected production levels or capex for the Penouta Project, but the International Tin Association stated that the mine would produce 351 metric tonnes of tin in concentrate by 2023. SEEKING a dialogue with Greenland ETM has the Kvanefjeld Project in Greenland. It is one of the largest undeveloped rare-earth deposits in the world. However, it cannot develop the project due to a government ban that will take effect on 2021. The company is expecting to appear in court later this year as part of its long-running dispute with the government regarding?the project. Mamadou stated, "We have also tried to push for a parallel track in dialogue which has so far not yielded any meaningful traction. But I think this is about to change." Greenland advertises itself as a mining destination that is "open for business", he said. Last week, the company said that exploration had identified new mineralised areas that contained uranium concentrations below the threshold of the government's ban on uranium. ETM has also been in dispute with China’s Shenghe Resources, its second largest shareholder with a 6 percent stake. This is after ETM terminated a deal signed by the two companies back in April that was supposed to see them jointly develop Kvanefjeld. Mamadou refused to comment when asked if ETM had ended its relationship with Shenghe in order to attract investors from the U.S., Canada and other Western countries as it sought a Nasdaq IPO. (Reporting and editing by Eric Onstad)
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Gold nears a one-week high following US-Iran Peace Deal
As a result of a tentative agreement between the U.S. and Iran, gold prices reached a new high. Oil prices fell as a result of the tentative peace agreement between the?U.S. As of 1044 GMT, spot gold increased 2.8%, reaching $4,336.49 an ounce, its highest level since the 9th of June. U.S. gold for August delivery rose 2.8% to $4358.00. U.S. officials and Iranian officials announced that they had reached a preliminary agreement to?end their war and reopen Strait of Hormuz. This pact sent oil prices 'falling, but left the fate of Tehran’s nuclear programme up for further negotiations. Shehbaz sharif, the Pakistani prime minister, said on X that the pact would be signed in Switzerland on?Friday. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that "market participants are pricing in rate increases due to lower oil prices which is lifting yellow metal." "In the near term, I would expect some consolidation until we get clarity from Fed later this week." The U.S. Dollar fell to its lowest level in 10 days, making bullion priced in greenbacks more affordable to other currency holders. Oil prices also dropped to their lowest point for over three months. Since the beginning of the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran, in late February of this year, gold prices have been under stress as the rising inflation risk resulting from oil has fueled expectations of longer-term interest rate increases. Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, but it can lose its appeal when interest rates are high. The opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding assets increases. According to CME FedWatch, the markets have reduced their expectations of a U.S. interest rate increase in December to 53% from 69% the week before. Investors now look forward to the Federal Reserve policy meeting that will take place this week. Barclays is still positive on gold. They cite a number of factors, including the persistent inflation, policy uncertainties, and ongoing diversification of reserves. Singapore, meanwhile, will introduce an over-the counter gold clearing system, and?central banks gold-vaulting service, according to the deputy prime minister. The city-state is aiming to establish itself as a hub for gold trading. Silver spot rose by 4.1%, to $70.76 an ounce. Platinum gained 3.5%, to $1778.20, and palladium increased 4.9%, to $1346.36. (Reporting from Pablo Sinha, Bengaluru. Additional reporting by Katha Kaalia in Bengaluru. Editing by Louise Heavens, Susan Fenton.
Let the oil flow!
Anna Szymanski is the Editor-in Charge of Open Interest.
On?Monday, oil prices fell and global stocks rose after the United States reached a preliminary agreement with Iran. After more than three months of disruption, the memorandum of agreement should allow the?Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president and Shehbaz Sharif, the Pakistani prime minister announced that a deal was struck late Sunday night. The agreement, which is scheduled to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, leaves many questions unanswered. This may mean that market celebrations are premature.
Below, I will go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid Daily Podcast - a special episode on the market impact of the U.S. Iran deal. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
'LET THE OPEC FLOW' The exact terms of the U.S. and Iran MoU are unclear. Details on thornier topics - like Iran's nucleic programme - will be discussed in further negotiations after a 60-day period of ceasefire. Traffic through the strait is also uncertain to return to normal anytime soon. The President wrote on Twitter that the strait would reopen without tolls and that the U.S. Naval Blockade will be lifted, declaring "Let's let the oil flow!" The restarting of shut-in oil facilities and the reorientation of tankers is going to take some time. Shippers are also cautious about this whole episode. The markets are still optimistic. Brent crude dropped over 4% after the news of a U.S. Iran deal. It is now trading at $83 per barrel - its lowest price since early March. The announcement was well received by Asian equity markets, as both the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI, which are two of the biggest net energy importers, rose 5%. Wall Street futures in the US were up more than 1% by the time the bell rang, and the STOXX 600 index hit a new record high in Europe. The prospect of a reopened strait should temper inflation expectations and rate-hike betting, which have risen as the three-month conflict has caused energy prices to rise in economies all over the world. The headline CPI in the U.S. topped 4% for the first time ever in May. U.S. Treasury rates fell on Monday. The 10-year yield reached a new low and helped drag the dollar down.
This news comes ahead of an important week for central bankers. It is possible that the possibility of the energy squeeze easing could help dovish policymakers, including the new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh. Wednesday will mark the first meeting of the new Fed chair, and policymakers are expected keep rates at 3.5%-3.75%. Investors will closely monitor the messaging of the meeting to see how Warsh will lead the central bank, now that he is at the helm. Warsh has been widely viewed as favoring a looser policy in the short term. However, a growing number of FOMC Members have recently spoken out against the "easing bias". The news of the preliminary U.S. Iran deal will undoubtedly impact the debate. However, a series robust U.S. job prints, including May's nonfarm payrolls is likely to continue the heat. The Bank of Japan is first up on the central bank agenda this week. They will meet on Tuesday, and are expected to increase rates to 1% - a new high of 31 years. The Bank of England, on the other hand, is expected to maintain rates at their Thursday meeting. Investors will be watching Elon Musk's SpaceX closely to see what happens this week after the rocket maker recently listed its shares. This week, the G7 Summit, which began in France today and the May inflation releases for the UK and Euro?zone are also on the agenda. In the UK, there will be an important by-election on Thursday that could lead to a leadership battle between Keir starmer, Prime Minister of the UK and Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester mayor.
Chart of the Day Brent crude dropped to its lowest level since early March, Monday. It fell over 4% to $83 per barrel following the announcement of the U.S. - Iran memorandum.
The oil price had been hovering around $100/bbl despite the repeated military incidents in the Middle East.
Watch today's events
* U.S. May ?industrial production (9:15 a.m. EDT)
The G7 Leaders meet in France
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(source: Reuters)