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Sources say that OPEC+ is likely to agree on a further increase in oil production on Sunday.

OPEC+ sources stated on Saturday that eight OPEC+ nations will likely increase oil production on Sunday, but they may add less oil in October than recent months due to the slowdown of global demand with the end driving season.

OPEC+ reversed its April strategy of production cuts and has already increased quotas to about 2,4 million barrels a day (about 2.4% of the world's demand) to increase market share. This is in response to pressure from U.S. president Donald Trump, who wants to lower oil prices.

These increases, however, have not had a significant impact on oil prices. They are currently trading at $66 per barrel, supported by Western sanctions against Russia and Iran. This encourages rivals like the United States to increase production.

OPEC+ would start to unravel a second layer, averaging about 1.65 millions bpd. This would be more than a full year ahead of schedule.

Two sources told me on Saturday that the focus of talks is to gradually unwind this entire cut, in monthly increments. On Sunday, 1230 GMT eight OPEC+ member countries will hold a virtual meeting. The focus of the discussion is likely to be October's output.

An OPEC+ official said that the countries could increase their output by 135,000 bpd in October. Another said it might be closer to 200,000-350,000 bpd.

The eight members increased production for September by 547,000 bpd at their last August meeting, giving a total of 2.5 million bpd increase for the entire year. This included an additional 300,000 bpd production allocation for the UAE.

OPEC's headquarters and Saudi Arabian authorities did not respond to Wednesday's requests for comments.

OPEC+ is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia, and other allies.

Brent crude futures closed at $65.50 a bar on Friday, down by 2.2%. This was due to a disappointing U.S. employment report and the expectation of a production increase from OPEC+. It is still up since a low in 2025 of around $58 per barrel in April.

Analysts have stated that sanctions and the fact that OPEC+ has not met its pledged amount have supported prices.

OPEC+ has been reducing production to support the oil price for several years.

The group has committed to a further 2 million bpd in cuts until 2026. (Reporting and editing by Alexandra Hudson, Olesya Almakhova, Alex Lawler Ahmad Ghaddar, Dmitry Zhdannikov)

(source: Reuters)