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Asia crude oil imports spike in August. But is it due to demand or price? Russell

Asia's crude oil imports rebounded in august as China and India, two heavyweight buyers, bought more crude oil from Middle East exporters.

According to data compiled and analyzed by LSEG Oil Research, the world's largest importing region experienced arrivals of 27,18 million barrels a day (bpd), up from 24,91 million bpd during July. This is also higher than the 26,39 million bpd for the same month 2024.

The 2.27 million bpd rise from July may look impressive, but it is worth noting that the month of July was Asia's weakest imports in a year. August's arrivals also were slightly lower than the 27.98 bpd LSEG recorded in June.

Market participants are wondering if the increase in imports in August is due to a stronger demand in Asia or if other factors are at play.

By stepping back from the volatility of month to month, it is clear that Asia's crude oil imports are modestly higher in 2025.

The imports for the period January to August were 27,02 million bpd. This is 510,000 more bpd than the 26,51 million bpd total of 2024.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) August monthly report forecasted a higher growth in oil demand.

OPEC predicts that Asia's oil consumption will grow by 710,000 bpd by 2025. This growth is primarily due to an increase of 200,000 bpd for China, Asia's largest crude importer.

Price Moves

Both of these countries are price sensitive buyers. They tend to increase imports when crude prices fall, but reduce them when they go up.

The bulk of the cargoes arriving in August would have been purchased between May and mid-June when oil prices were at their lowest level so far this year.

Brent crude futures fell to a low of $58.50 per barrel, a record four-year low on May 5. They recovered to levels of the mid-60s by June's middle.

The price at this level likely encouraged Chinese refiners and Indian refiners, particularly as the refinery maintenance season also ended, to increase purchases.

Brent oil reached a six-month peak of $81.40 per barrel on June 23, after a brief conflict between Israel, Iran, and the U.S. in late June.

The price of oil has dropped to $68.40 per barrel in Asian trading on Tuesday. However, due to the steep increase in June, Asian buyers like China and India may reduce imports in anticipation of September cargoes.

In August, Asia's imports increased as a result of the voluntary production cuts that eight members of OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, had made.

In August, Asia's imports of oil from the two OPEC+ countries grew. Arrivals from Saudi Arabia reached 5.20 million bpd, up from 4.77 in July, and the highest since March. Imports from Russia increased to 3.48 million bpd, from 3.39 in July.

Imports to Asia from Middle East countries such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, and Oman increased from July levels.

Asia's crude imports are slightly higher than last year but still fall short of OPEC demand predictions.

There is also a trend that China and India are importing more, and the tightness in supply caused by the production cuts of OPEC+ has begun to ease.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)