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Stocks fall, US Treasury yields increase; US inflation data mostly inline

On Friday, major stock indexes dipped while U.S. Treasury rates rose. U.S. inflation figures were largely in line economists' expectations and kept expectations of an interest rate cut for September intact.

The U.S. Dollar Index also pared some gains after the report. The S&P 500, however, was down by 0.7% at the end of the day. Technology shares were the main culprits. Dell Technologies shares were down by more than 9% after its guidance and results.

U.S. Commerce Department announced on Friday that its Personal Consumption Spending Price Index (PCE), which measures the price of consumer goods, rose by 0.2% in July. This compares to a 0.3% rise in June. The increase is in line with estimates from economists surveyed.

PCE inflation was 2.6% higher in July than it had been in June. After removing volatile components such as food and energy, the core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in July. This followed a 0.3% increase in core inflation in June.

You have to enjoy it when everything comes together. Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth, Boston's chief markets strategist, stated via email that today's figures on personal consumption, spending, income and spending were in the middle.

This leaves the Fed's options wide open to reduce rates in September, and possibly again in October and December.

Fed funds futures traders now price in 89% of the odds that a reduction will occur next month. This is up from 84% prior to the data.

After Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's unexpectedly dovish remarks last Friday, traders increased their bets that there would be more cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 205.66, or 0.45% to 45,431.24, while the S&P 500 declined 44.52, or 0.68% to 6,457.34, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 232.19, or 1.07, points to 21,472.97.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 5.43 points or 0.57% to 950.91.

The STOXX 600 Index fell by 0.53%.

Shares in China had their best month for almost a full year, with gains of more than 10%, on the hope that the economy, and especially its tech sector, will improve.

Last seen at $1.166, the euro fell 0.19%. The dollar gained 0.2% against the Japanese yen to reach 147.22. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of other currencies) was slightly higher at 98.06.

The U.S. Treasury yields increased on Monday, but the interest rate-sensitive two-year yields are on course for their biggest monthly drop in the past year. Major U.S. Financial Markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day.

The yield on 2-year notes was up 0.2 basis points for the day, closing at 3.637%. This is the biggest fall in 32 basis points since August last year.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 2.3 basis points, to 4.23%.

Germany's 30-year bond yield has increased 12 basis points in the past month. It is now on course to make its largest monthly jump since March when an historic shift towards a looser fiscal policies sent bond yields soaring. Bond yields are inversely related to prices.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he wants to begin cutting interest rates in the next month, and "fully anticipates" further rate cuts. This will bring the Fed’s policy rate to a more neutral setting.

The oil prices fell, but were still set to rise for the week. U.S. crude dropped 0.33%, to $64.39 per barrel. Brent was down to $68.24 a barrel.

(source: Reuters)