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Dollar hits 3-year low and stocks hit new record amid Fed concerns

The dollar fell to its lowest level in more than three years, even though global stocks hit their third all-time high on Thursday. Markets are also growing increasingly concerned about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. Dollar Index was down by nearly 0.5% for the session, and over 10% on an annual basis. If the trend continues in the coming days, it will be the biggest drop in the first six months since the beginning of the free-floating currency era in the early 1970s.

Wall Street's major indexes are trading higher. The benchmark S&P 500, and Nasdaq are nearing records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.74%, the S&P 500 by 0.66% and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.73%.

European shares ended up 0.09%. MSCI's global stock index rose 75%, to 908.96. This was a record high for a third consecutive session. According to a Wall Street Journal article, President Donald Trump is considering replacing Chair Jerome Powell in the coming months. His term ends next May.

Powell just finished two days of testimony before the U.S. Congress. He said that he would be cautious in considering any further rate reductions, as he expects Trump’s tariffs to cause prices to increase this summer.

Wasif Latif is the chief investment officer of Sarmaya Partners, a New Jersey-based firm. He said that a Trump appointment to a shadow Fed chairman will likely undermine investor confidence in its independence and contribute to the weakness of the dollar. Latif explained that the market is aware that Powell will leave the stage sooner or later and that the next appointment would likely be someone who's a bit more dovish, or politically motivated. "And the markets are saying that the next chair is likely to be more receptive to large cuts than Powell was and I think this is part of the reason why the dollar is weakening and gold is reflecting it." Overnight, the Nikkei in Tokyo rose 1.65%, reaching its highest level since last January. MSCI's Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan also finished higher.

The euro has reached its highest level against the US dollar since 2021. Trade tariff talks with Washington are expected to begin next week ahead of Trump's July 9 global deadline.

The dollar fell to its lowest level in a decade against the Swiss Franc, at 0.79855. The dollar was also down by 0.73% at 144.195 yen against.

After its decline this year, the dollar index, which compares the U.S. dollar to six other currencies, is now at its lowest point since March 2022.

Michael Metcalfe, State Street's chief economist, said: "The dollar has struggled to appreciate in virtually any market regime."

He added that the US dollar was now at its lowest level since the COVID Pandemic.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders now price in nearly 25% of the chance that the Fed will cut rates at its meeting on the last day of July, up from 12.5% the previous week.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 1.6 basis points, to 4.277%.

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates, fell 2.9 basis points to 3.75%. This was its lowest level since seven weeks. Germany's benchmark, which is used in Europe for comparisons, has risen by 0.4 basis points. The oil prices are on course for a second consecutive day of gains following their sharp drop after the Trump-brokered truce between longtime Middle East enemies Israel and Iran early this week. Trump also announced that he would hold talks with Iran to ask for a commitment to curtail its nuclear ambitions.

Brent crude futures climbed 1.2% to 68.49 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), gained 1.43% at $65.85. Gold fell 0.2% to $3325.54 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)