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Dollar struggles as investors consider tariff truce

The dollar wobbled on Wednesday as the relatively benign U.S. Inflation data fueled prospects for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, even though investors were still trying to gauge if the worst trade conflict was over.

Financial markets were nervous as Donald Trump's trade war with China appeared to be on hold, following a truce between the two countries.

Tony Sycamore, IG analyst, said: "I am a bit cautious about chasing this rally at this point." We'll have to wait and see what happens in terms of headlines, the framework for further tariff negotiations with foreign countries, but at this stage the worst-case scenarios has already been priced out.

MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.9% early in the day after U.S. shares climbed into positive territory for this year, wiping out losses caused by Trump's chaotic tariff rollout.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index climbed in early trading, lifted by tech shares after Chinese ecommerce retailer JD.com reported strong results. This week, investors will focus on the earnings of Tencent and Alibaba.

Equity futures showed a retreat in the European and U.S. market.

Investors who were worried about inflationary impacts of U.S. Tariff Policies, which severely undermined expectations of Fed rate reductions in the near future, also found some relief from data overnight that showed softer than expected U.S. Consumer inflation.

Although traders expect the inflation rate to rise as tariffs increase import costs, there is still uncertainty about the future as Washington continues to negotiate with its trading partners.

The global mood improved after the U.S.-Britain trade agreement last week. It was further boosted when U.S.-China announced on Monday that they would suspend their trade war and reduce reciprocal duties for 90 days while they negotiate an arrangement more permanent.

Trump has also touted potential deals with India, Japan and South Korea.

The Fed warned of increasing economic uncertainty and indicated it was prepared to wait a while to evaluate the impact of U.S. Tariffs before cutting interest rates.

The U.S. Dollar, which has been hammered recently due to economic and political uncertainty, fell 0.2% against yen and remained unchanged at $1.1866 against the euro. The dollar index was barely changed following a 0.8% decline in the previous session.

The Nikkei 225 index of Japan fell 0.7% on Wednesday, reversing a 1.4% gain.

Retail sales for April, due Thursday, will be the next big indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. On the same day, Russia and Ukraine will hold talks in Istanbul in hopes of reaching a ceasefire after three years in Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two.

Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) revealed on Tuesday that global asset managers had their largest underweight position against the dollar in nearly 19 years as Trump’s trade policy reduced investor appetite for U.S. investments.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 2 basis points to 4.4768.

U.S. crude fell 0.3% to $63.48 per barrel while spot gold dropped slightly at $3244.79 an ounce.

(source: Reuters)