Latest News

Angola's Finance Minister says that country stress testing for lower oil prices and IMF program is more likely

Angola's Finance Minister says that country stress testing for lower oil prices and IMF program is more likely

Angola has been running stress tests in order to assess the impact of a drop in oil prices on the government's finances. Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa announced on Friday that this situation would make a request for IMF loans more likely. The second-largest crude oil exporter in Sub-Saharan Africa has built its budget for 2025 on an oil price per barrel of $70, but Brent oil futures briefly fell below $60 after U.S. president Donald Trump announced tariffs on April 2nd. The contract closed at $66.91 per barrel on Friday.

Daves de Sousa said in an interview at the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank's spring meetings in Washington that "we are rolling out stress tests scenarios." De Sousa explained that a small decline in oil could lead to a temporary freeze on some expenditures, but a drop of $45 would require an additional budget.

She said that the government was working on measures to reduce the impact of lower prices of oil on revenue, improve tax administration, and increase enforcement of property taxes. Many smaller and riskier economies, including Angola have been affected by the recent volatility in fixed income markets, particularly U.S. Treasuries. Angola was forced to pay $200m earlier this month when JPMorgan issued an margin call on its 1 billion total return swap, a loan that the lender issued in December and which was backed by dollar bonds of the country.

De Sousa stated that she was in discussions with JPMorgan about measures that could be taken to avoid another margin payment and that neither investors nor rating agencies had given her any negative feedback on the payment.

She said that there were no negative connotations. Instead, they were surprised at how quickly we had been able to raise such a large amount of money. The government is currently examining the possibility of requesting an IMF financing program.

De Sousa, when asked about Chinese loans backed with oil, said that the government would have to pay another $8 billion. It expected to be able do so by 2028, rather than 2030-2031 as it had previously predicted.

Angola is also borrowing more money, mainly from China's EXIM Bank, but this money was not secured by collateral, it was concessional, and it had been allocated to specific projects, such as improving internet capability in rural areas, or improving education.

De Sousa stated that Angola would love to tap into international capital markets once again, but does not plan to do so for the time being.

We want to go on the market but with the way things are going, this isn't the right time. We will keep an eye on it to make sure we are prepared for the next time.

De Sousa said that officials from the Trump administration had confirmed in Washington, in meetings with the public, their commitment to fund the Lobito Rail Corridor without specifying the exact amount. The project is designed to transport vital minerals from central Africa's copperbelt into the West. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Karin Strohecker)

(source: Reuters)