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US data and tariff concerns are a focus as gold prices fall.
The gold price dropped by nearly 1% Tuesday, as easing trade tensions between America and its trading partners weakened the metal's appeal as a safe haven. Investors waited for U.S. data on the economy to determine the Federal Reserve policy direction. As of 0425 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.8%, at $3,314.99 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.7% to $3325.10. The risk environment has improved in recent months, as market participants are encouraged by the optimism that the worst trade tensions could be behind us due to encouraging rhetoric about trade deals," said IG Market Strategist Yeap JunRong. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated on Monday that several top trading partners made "very good proposals" to avoid U.S. Tariffs. India is likely to be the first country to reach a final agreement. Bessent said that China's recent decision to exempt some U.S. products from its retaliatory duties showed a willingness for trade tensions to be de-escalated. U.S. President Donald Trump's administration will also move to reduce the impact of his automotive tariffs by alleviating some duties imposed on foreign parts in domestically-manufactured cars. A majority of economists surveyed in a recent poll believe that there is a high risk the global economy could slip into recession. Many also said Trump's tariffs had damaged business confidence. Due to increased uncertainty, the price of gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge to political and financial instabilities, reached a record high last week at $3,500.05/oz. Investors will be watching economic data, such as the U.S. Job Openings Report later that day, the Personal Consumption Spending report on Wednesday, and non-farm payrolls on Friday. Rong stated that "Longer term structural tailwinds will likely keep the upward trend in place, as long as central banks of emerging markets continue to diversify their reserves." Spot silver fell by 0.5% to $32.98 per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.2% to $884.56, and palladium was down 0.4% to $945.47.
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London metals prices are rising as the market waits for an update on US-China trade talks
Investors were glued to the news of developments in U.S. China negotiations as well as a flurry of U.S. Economic Data. As of 0340 GMT, the benchmark copper price on London Metal Exchange was $9,378.5 per metric ton. This week, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Personal Consumption Spending (PCE) Data are due. These data could influence metal prices because they can affect Federal Reserve rate decisions as well as economic outlook. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that progress had been made in negotiations with China. Beijing denies that trade talks have taken place, and U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has not backed Trump's claim about tariff talks with China. China has exempted some U.S. imports of its retaliatory duties, a sign the trade war may be easing. Last week, the Trump administration signalled its willingness to deescalate. A trader stated that "the trajectory of the U.S. China trade dispute remains undetermined and the market eagerly awaits a clear indication on its future course." "If tensions continue to escalate, they could have far-reaching effects, possibly triggering a worldwide recession." Other London metals saw aluminum fall 0.1%, to $2.431 per ton. Zinc rose 0.5%, to $2.645, while lead increased 0.1%, to $1.968, and tin rose 0.2%, to $32,085; nickel fell 0.3%, to $15.570. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract rose by 0.1%, to 77.420 yuan per metric ton ($10,645.88). The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) warehouses, which monitor inventories of CU-STX and SGH metals, have seen a 32% drop week-on-week. SHFE aluminum fell by 0.1%, to 19,915 Yuan per ton. Zinc rose 0.1%, to 22,535 Yuan. Lead fell by 0.2%, to 16,890 Yuan. Nickel fell by 0.2%, to 124130 yuan. Tin lost 0.4%, to 260460 yuan. $1 = 7.2723 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Violet Li, Lewis Jackson and Rashmi aich).
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New Rules to Ease Pressure on US Offshore Drilling
The U.S. Interior Department said on Thursday it has implemented new guidelines for allowable pressure differences in a certain type of oil drilling in part of the Gulf of Mexico, changes it expects can boost U.S. oil output.President Donald Trump's new Energy Dominance Council led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is looking for ways to cut costs for oil and gas producers, cut regulations and boost oil output, which reached record levels under former President Joe Biden.Under the new rules, operators working in the Wilcox rock formation under part of the waters that Trump has renamed the Gulf of America, can produce oil from multiple offshore reservoirs using greater pressure differences.The rules on so-called downhole commingling between reservoirs in the Paleogene expand the allowable pressure differential from 200 pounds per square inch to 1500 psi.Interior expects the changes can boost output by 100,000 barrels per day of oil from the region over 10 years. "This is a monumental milestone in achieving American Energy Dominance," said Burgum. "We're delivering more American energy, more efficiently, and with fewer regulatory roadblocks."The producers must meet conditions including pressure monitoring and regular performance reporting, Interior's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.Late in the Biden administration, the bureau rolled out safety rules for offshore drillers as breakthrough technology enables them to operate under extreme subsea pressures. The high pressures could unlock billions of barrels in untapped oil reserves around the world, but some safety concerns have loomed about the potential for leaks from drilling sites."This change makes more money for paper pushers, but makes the work more dangerous for tool pushers out in the water," said Scott Eustis, the community science director for the Healthy Gulf nonprofit group.Erik Milito, president of the National Ocean Industries Association, said the rule change is "designed to unlock potentially stranded offshore oil and gas production while keeping safety and environmental protection front and center."The Biden-era rules came after Chevron CVX.N started production at its Anchor asset, owned with TotalEnergies, which was the first ever project to operate at 20,000 psi of pressure, reaching reservoir depths of 34,000 feet (10,363 m).(Reuters - Reporting by Timothy Gardner; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
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London metals trading in a tight range as the market awaits an update on US-China tariff talks
Investors were glued to the news of developments in U.S. China negotiations as well as a flurry of U.S. Economic Data. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose by 0.1%, to $9 387 per metric ton at 0128 GMT. This week, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures data (PCE) and initial unemployment claims are due. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that progress had been made in negotiations with China. Beijing denies that trade talks have taken place, and U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has not backed Trump's claim about tariff talks with China. China has exempted some U.S. imports of its retaliatory duties, a sign the trade war may be easing. Last week, the Trump administration signalled its willingness to deescalate. A trader stated that "the trajectory of the U.S. China trade dispute remains undetermined and the market eagerly awaits a clear indication on its future course." "If tensions continue to escalate, they could have far-reaching effects, possibly triggering a worldwide recession." Other London metals include aluminum, which fell by 0.1%, to $2.432 per ton. Zinc rose 0.4%, to $2.644, while lead increased 0.1%, to $1.968, and tin was up 0.3%, to $32,115. Nickel, however, dropped 0.2%, to $15.585 per ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most-traded contract for copper rose by 0.3%, to $10,656.24 per metric ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) warehouses, which monitor inventories of CU-STX and SGH metals, have seen a 32% drop week-on-week. SHFE aluminum fell 0.1%, to 19,905 Yuan per ton. Zinc rose 1%, to 22,545 Yuan. Lead added 0.1%, to 16,945 Yuan. Nickel rose 0.1%, to 124420 Yuan. Tin lost 0.2%, to 261,100 Yan. $1 = 7.2793 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy; Reporting by Violet Li & Lewis Jackson)
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Dollar slips as stocks fall on US-China standoff
The dollar fell to its highest monthly level in years on Tuesday, as investors prepared for the impact of the trade war. The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump have shaken the confidence in U.S. assets. Even though the S&P 500 has recovered much of the early April losses it suffered, the dollar is only able to maintain its current level, with no significant rebound. The situation deteriorated overnight after U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said on CNBC that it was up to China to "de-escalate the tariffs", which are currently at 125%, for most U.S. Exports to China. The Asia session was dominated by a holiday in Japan, which kept most currency pairs at the same level. The euro's rise to $1.1409, up 5%, is its biggest monthly gain in 15 years. Nikkei, S&P 500 and Dow futures rose, aided by officials who hinted at a easing of automotive tariffs. However, investors were still waiting for a more significant relief from the 145% U.S. Tariffs on China. China has made some concessions, but has not yet introduced any stimulus measures. They are hoping that Washington will blink first. China's Foreign Ministry also stated that President Xi Jinping has not spoken with Trump in recent times, nor have their respective administrations tried to reach a tariff agreement, contrary to the U.S. President's claim made in an interview to Time magazine. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.3% in the early trading and mainland blue chips index fell by 0.2%. J.P. Morgan analysts stated in a report that the first-quarter GDP figures and the April U.S. job numbers due later this week will likely be supported by purchases made in advance to avoid the new taxes. However, a decline in China shipments indicates a reckoning could be coming soon. In a recent note, J.P. Morgan analysts said that the clock was ticking for hard data resilience. They highlighted a 42% drop in China's shipments to the U.S. from peak to trough in the last 10 days. This, if it continued, would have a ripple effect on supply chains. "A worrying decoupling between U.S. and China trade appears to be underway. We expect the damage will increase in the coming weeks and month." Investors will also be watching the results of the Canadian election, which is expected to bring the Liberals back to power. Inflation readings in Europe are due, starting with Spain and Belgium on Tuesday. After a massive outage that brought Spain and Portugal to an absolute standstill, power started to return to some parts of the Iberian Peninsula late Monday. HSBC, BP, Deutsche Bank and Coca-Cola will all be reporting their quarterly results on the same day, as well as Adidas, Coca-Cola and Visa. Apple, Microsoft and Meta Platforms will report their mega-caps in the coming week. Gold was trading at $3,333 per ounce on February, an increase of nearly 7% over April, and almost 27% so far this year. Brent crude fell a little to $65.68 per barrel. Treasuries weren't traded in Asia due to the holiday in Japan, leaving 10-year benchmark yields at 4,206%. Futures were largely unchanged.
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Australian young voters put aside their disillusionment in order to keep right-wingers out
Jessica Louise Smith, a student at an Australian university, says she'll vote in the general election on Saturday with one goal: to avoid the "worst" possible outcome of a conservative government. After seeing Donald Trump's disruption in the United States, the 19-year old said that the prospect of the conservative opposition leader Peter Dutton becoming the next Prime Minister was "very scary". She said, "I don't feel as if I am as focused on genuine politics in Australia than I am just avoiding the worst option." Smith will cast his vote at an election on 3 May alongside millions of Millennials, Generation Z and other voters. These four groups make up almost half of the 18 million Australians who are enrolled in Australia's compulsory voting system. They outnumber the influential Baby Boomer group. Social media, podcasts, and memes have been used by the Liberal-National Coalition and Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party to announce housing and student loan policies. Young voters who grew up in a world of global pandemics, economic turmoil and climate crises, expressed their disillusionment and dissatisfaction with the inaction by both major parties on issues that directly affected them. Darcy Palmer (18) said that many people of his age feel compelled to support Labor "just to make sure Dutton does not get in", even though Australia has preferential voting, which allows voters to rank the choices. According to a recent survey by political consultancy Redbridge Group, Labor has a 60% lead over the conservative Liberal Party among Millennials. Kos Samaras, Redbridge's director of communications and marketing, said that this group is also the most likely to "give their first preference to minor parties or independents" in a Financial Review op-ed. Jasmine Al-Rawi is an architecture student who has recently become a citizen after moving from New Zealand. She would like to see the climate change and pressures on cost of living addressed more. The 22-year old said, "Both major political parties have ruled for the wealthy. I don't think that the Labor Party has done anything for ordinary people ever since they were elected." "I don't think the Labor Party is any better than Peter Dutton, but I also think that there are no positive arguments for them." According to the Australian Election Study, the trend of two major parties losing their support among younger voters has increased in recent years. During Australia’s last election, in 2022 26% of Gen Z voters and 18% Millennials voted Greens. The party is focused on the environment. The study found that support for major parties, and in particular the conservative coalition, fell to its lowest level ever. Ava Cavalerie Johnson (18) said that she hoped the youth vote would shift Australia's Parliament further to the left, but warned against generalising the group. There are still many conservative political beliefs. She said: "I think there will be more of a shift to the left but not a complete one." (Reporting and editing by Cordelia Chen in Sydney, and Christine Hsu in Sydney)
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Oil prices fall as economic uncertainty dampens demand expectations
Crude oil fell early in Asian trading on Monday as investors reduced their expectations of demand growth due to the ongoing US-China trade war. Brent crude futures dropped by 25 cents or 0.4% to $65.61 a barrel at 0024 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell 18 cents or 0.3% to $61.87 per barrel. Both benchmarks dropped more than $1 Monday. A majority of economists surveyed said that President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the world’s trade by imposing tariffs against all U.S. imported goods has increased the risk that this year’s global recession will be a reality. China, which was hit by the highest tariffs, responded with its own duties against U.S. imported goods, sparking a trade conflict between the two top oil-consuming nations. Analysts have been forced to lower their forecasts for oil demand and prices. Barclays cut its forecast for 2025 Brent crude prices by $4, to $70 a barrel. The company cited increased trade tensions as well as a shift in the production strategy of OPEC+. These factors are driving a surplus oil supply this year of 1 million barrels per day. Sources told us last week that several members of OPEC+ (which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies) will propose an acceleration of production increases for a second month consecutive in June. In a recent note, oil analyst Philip Verleger stated that a substantial drop in the price of (oil) is likely if exporting nations increase production. According to an initial poll conducted by analysts on Monday, the U.S. crude stockpiles probably increased by around 500,000 barrels during the week ending April 15. The American Petroleum Institute, a trade group, will release its estimate of U.S. crude oil inventories on February 2. The Energy Information Administration is expected to release official figures on Wednesday. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul in New York, Shariq Khan is reporting from New York)
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Fortescue iron ore company in Australia overcomes weather problems to record higher Q3 iron-ore shipments
Fortescue, an Australian iron ore miner, reported higher third-quarter shipments of the commodity on Thursday. This was in line with analysts' expectations as production recovered from a derailment that occurred in the same quarter last year. Andrew Forrest is the billionaire chairman of this iron ore company. It reported quarterly iron ore shipment numbers of 46,1 million metric tonnes (mt), up from 43.3 million tons reported a year ago. This was in line with Visible Alpha's consensus estimate of 46.8 mt. The increase in iron ore shipment comes despite Fortescue experiencing significant weather disruptions. This included a five-day port closure at Port Hedland, and operational restrictions from Tropical Cyclone Zelia which drove a 7% decline quarter-on-quarter. The shares of the fourth largest iron ore mining company in the world rose up to 2.1%, reaching a high of A$15.8, which was higher than the 0.3% increase seen across the entire mining sector. Fortescue continues to review its timeline for Iron Bridge operations in order to reach full production of 22 millions mt per year. An assessment of key processing machinery is expected to be complete by June. Fortescue's green energy division is re-evaluating development timeframes of its Arizona Project located in the U.S., and its Gladstone PEM50 Project located in Queensland. By June, "greater clarity" regarding external factors that affect these projects will be expected. The company has maintained its guidance for fiscal 2025 of 190-200 million mt iron ore shipments, which includes 5 million-9 millions mt Iron Bridge at 100%. The projected capital expenditure for 2025 of $3.5 to $3.8 billion remains the same. Fortescue delivered the first T 264 Power System during the quarter to Liebherr, a manufacturer of mining equipment. The system will convert diesel mining trucks into zero-emission vehicles, as part of Fortescue's efforts to decarbonize.
OPEC March crude oil production falls on Venezuela and Iran amid sanctions
A survey revealed that OPEC's oil production fell in March, ahead of a planned increase, as Nigeria cut deliveries to its domestic refineries, and Iranian and Venezuelan supplies dropped due to renewed U.S. efforts to reduce the flow.
According to a survey released on Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 26,63 million barrels of oil per day in February, a decrease of 110,000 bpd compared to the total for the month of February. The largest declines were recorded by Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela.
OPEC+, a grouping of OPEC, its allies, and Russia, has begun to unwind the most recent cuts in output. The extent of the increase will partly depend on how President Donald Trump's attempts to restrict supply from Iran and Venezuela affect the price.
The survey revealed that in March, Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela each saw their supply fall by 50,000 bpd.
The survey concluded that Nigerian exports were higher than expected, but the supply decreased due to lower deliveries to the Dangote Refinery. According to the survey Nigeria is slightly pumping above its OPEC+ targets, with Gabon being the least compliant.
Surveys show that the Iranian oil production fell in February from its previous high of September, which was also the highest level since 2018. The slight drop in output comes at a time when the U.S., under Trump, is redoubling its efforts to pressure Iran's oil imports.
The survey also found that Venezuela, which was similarly affected by U.S. actions, saw a decline in exports in December, due to Washington's secondary tariffs, and the cancellation of energy licenses.
The survey showed that output in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, two of OPEC's biggest producers, increased slightly. Both nations are pumping lower than their OPEC+ target. The output in the United Arab Emirates met its target.
The OPEC secondary sources' survey and data from February show that the UAE and Iraq pump close to their quotas. However, other estimates such as the International Energy Agency suggest they pump significantly more.
The survey revealed that there was no increase in production last month.
The survey aims at tracking supply on the market. It is based upon data provided by LSEG (a financial group), information from companies that track flow, such as Kpler and information provided from sources within oil companies, OPEC, and consultants. (Additional reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise)
(source: Reuters)