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Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand drive gold to all-time high
Gold reached a new record on Tuesday, as there was no sign of an end to the impasse that led to the government shutdown between the two chambers of the U.S. Congress. Near-certainty bets about a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in this month also provided support. Gold spot was up 0.1% to $3,965.39 an ounce at 0308 GMT after reaching a session high of $3977.19 earlier. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.3%, to $3988.10. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "The (chances) of October and December cuts remain above 80%. This is actually supporting the gold price and this government shutdown too given that there's still no resolution reached between the two U.S. Congress sides." Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed Bank president, has indicated that he does not intend to further cut interest rates. He said the Fed should focus on the dangers of high inflation and not just apparent weakness in job markets. According to CME FedWatch, markets are still pricing additional 25 basis point rate cuts for both October and December, with probabilities 95% and 83% respectively. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low-interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. The gold price has increased by 51% this year, mainly due to central bank purchases and the demand for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) backed by gold. A weaker dollar also helped. Retail investors are increasingly interested in hedging their positions amid increasing trade and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs increased its December 2026 forecast for gold to $4.900 per ounce, up from $4.300, on Monday. It cited strong Western exchange traded fund (ETF), and central bank purchases. Silver spot fell by 0.1% at $48.49 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.4% to $1.619.62, and palladium increased 0.1% to 1,325.71. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Sonia Cheema)
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China's central banks extends gold purchases for the 11th month
Official data released by the People's Bank of China on Tuesday showed that China's central banks added gold to their reserves for the 11th consecutive month. China's gold reserves increased to 74.06 millions fine troy ounces by the end September, from 74.02million ounces in August. The PBOC reported that the gold reserves of the country were valued at an estimated $283.29 Billion at the end last month. This is up from $253.84 Billion at the end August. Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said that a strong figure would confirm the notion that China is eager to dedollarize and accelerate their actions in this space. "Further purchase, even modest purchases, will be viewed domestically as positive in a price sensitive market. This may reduce the large discounts offered by Loco Shanghai. "It will give ETF investors and institutions the confidence that gold prices will continue to rise." The gold price, which is traditionally seen as a safe haven from economic and political uncertainty, has reached multiple records so far this season due to uncertainty over U.S. Tariffs, geopolitical conflict, the expectation of interest rate reductions, a weaker dollar, and central bank purchases. On Monday, gold prices rose above $3900 per ounce. The PBOC halted their 18-month gold buying spree in May 2024. The central bank began buying gold again in November 2024. The World Gold Council (WGC), in a survey, found that central banks expect their gold reserves as a percentage of their total reserves to rise over the next five year period. However, they anticipate their dollar reserves will be lower. Reporting by Zhang Yan and Qiaoyi Li in Bengaluru, as well as Anushree Mukerjee and Ishaan Aroo from Bengaluru. Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Christian Schmollinger and Jacqueline Wong.
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Experts urge urgent action as dengue cases spread across Bangladesh
Health experts in Bangladesh have warned that the dengue epidemic is rapidly worsening, with the number of infections and deaths increasing across the nation. They also warn the disease will spiral out of control if coordinated and urgent mosquito control measures are not implemented. As of October 6, the Directorate General of Health Services reported 50,689 cases of dengue and 215 deaths in the United States. Professor Kabirul bashar, an entomologist from Jahangirnagar University said that the outbreak of mosquito-borne diseases -- already severe in September -- could become "alarming this month" due to climate changes and erratic rain, as well extended holidays and weak action by local governments which disrupted antimosquito campaigns. Bashar warned that the situation would spiral out of control if we did not act. Climate change, he said, has prolonged the mosquito breeding season. Delays in fogging and cleaning drives have also exacerbated the problem. Dengue, which was once confined to major cities, is now spreading into smaller towns and rural regions, causing fears that the disease could become endemic throughout the country. Health officials are concerned that the crisis is likely to worsen in the next few weeks as hospitals continue to be overburdened and infections continue to rise. A rise in chikungunya cases, which is also transmitted by mosquitoes, has exacerbated the crisis. Although chikungunya rarely causes death, both adults and children can suffer from severe joint pains and weakness. The worst dengue year in Bangladesh was 2023. This is when 1,705 people died and more than 321,000 were infected. Experts warn the country may face a new cycle of destruction if preventive measures aren't taken. (Reporting and editing by Raju Gopikrishnan; Ruma Paul)
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Goldman increases its December 2026 gold forecast to $4.900/oz
Goldman Sachs increased on Monday its December 2020 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900, citing a strong Western ETF inflow and possible central bank purchases. Goldman stated that "we see the risks of our upgraded gold forecast as still being skewed on net to the upside, because private sector divergence into the relatively tiny gold market could boost ETF holdings beyond our rates-implied estimation," Goldman said. As of 1300 GMT on Tuesday morning, spot gold was trading at around $3960 per ounce after reaching a new high of $3977.19 earlier that day. Gold prices have risen 51% this year, thanks to central bank purchases, an increase in demand for gold-backed ETFs and a weaker US dollar. Retail investors are also becoming more interested as they seek a hedge against increasing trade and geopolitical tensions. Goldman estimates that central bank purchases will average 80 tons in 2025, and 70 tons by 2026. They say emerging market central banks will continue to diversify their gold reserves structurally. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect Western ETF holdings to increase as the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers the funds rate 100 basis points between now and mid-2026. "In contrast to this, the more noisy speculative positions have remained largely stable." After the large increase in September, the level Western ETF holdings have now fully caught-up with our U.S. rate-implied estimation, suggesting that the recent ETF strength was not an overshoot," the report said. Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru, Editing by Tom Hogue & Muralikumar Anantharaman
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Oil prices steady as the market chews on OPEC+ production hike and supply glut fears
Oil prices were steady on Tuesday, with sentiment toward a smaller-than-anticipated OPEC+ output hike dulled by weakening global demand and the potential for a supply glut. Brent crude futures rose 1 cent or 0.02% to $65.48 per barrel at 0014 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was unchanged at $60.69 per barrel. Both contracts were settled at a higher level than the previous session. Crude oil prices rose after OPEC announced a production increase that was smaller than expected. Oil market analysts had been expecting a significant increase in quotas as the members of the group met over the weekend to discuss their agreement on supply. This has averted fears of a bigger surplus in the coming months than what the market expects. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia plus some smaller producers – known as OPEC+ – decided on Sunday to increase their collective oil production by 137,000 barils per day beginning in November. The group increased its oil production targets this year by over 2.7 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to around 2.5% of the global demand. The geopolitical situation has kept prices stable, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is affecting energy assets. It also creates uncertainty about Russian crude oil supply. Two industry sources reported on Monday that the Russian Kirishi oil refining plant halted CDU-6's most productive distillation after a drone attack on October 4 and a subsequent fire. The unit is expected to recover in about a month. Oil prices are still under pressure because investors believe that there will be a surplus of oil as both OPEC+ as well as non-OPEC+ producers increase their output. Analysts said that any slowdown in the demand caused by weak economic growth due to U.S. tariffs would likely exacerbate this surplus. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing in Bengaluru, Anjana Anil)
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Rio Tinto and Partners to Invest $733 Million in Pilbara Iron Ore Project
Rio Tinto announced on Tuesday that it, along with joint venture partners Mitsui Iron Ore & Nippon Steel, will invest $733 Million to develop new ore deposits in the West Angelas Hub of Western Australia's Pilbara Region. Rio Tinto said that the West Angelas project, for which it will contribute $389 millions, will maintain the hub’s annual production capability at 35 million tonne, and extend mining operations by several years. Around 600 full-time jobs will be created during construction, and around 950 will remain after the project is operational. The autonomous trucking of ore will begin in 2027. Rio Mining said the project is part of a series of iron ore replacement developments in Pilbara that support a total production capacity of 130 million tonnes annually. Since 2002, the West Angelas Hub has been an important part of Rio Tinto’s operations. Rio Tinto has also begun a feasibility study for Rhodes Ridge. The project is expected to have an initial capacity up to 40 millions tonnes per year and the first ore in 2030. Rio Tinto shares rose by 0.9% at A$124.72 to outperform the benchmark index which was down 0.1% as of 2329 GMT. In partnership with China Baowu Steel Group the miner has also opened the Western Range Iron Ore Mine, worth $2 billion. The aim is to sustain production from the Paraburdoo hub of the Pilbara region for at least two decades. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Roshan Thomas; Editing by Shailesh Kumar)
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As clashes escalate, the Syrian army redeploys to SDF fronts as they rise in northeast Syria
According to the Defence Ministry, tensions between the U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces have increased. The statement stressed that the move was not intended as a prelude to a military action but to prevent the Kurdish led group from launching repeated attacks or attempting to seize land. Residents scattered their protests after witnesses reported that the army had sealed off two districts of Aleppo City under SDF control. Residents reported rockets being fired by residents from the Kurdish districts into nearby residential areas. A security source confirmed that one security officer had been killed in a recent attack on a border checkpoint. Kurdish fighters affiliated with the SDF claimed to have repelled a government attack. Two residents said that dozens of families were fleeing to safety from the two neighbourhoods. SDF Calls for Lifting of SIEGE Farhad Shami, a Kurdish SDF spokesman, accused factions of the Damascus regime of trying to enter two Kurdish districts in Aleppo using tanks. He denied that SDF personnel targeted checkpoints and said the group did not have forces in Ashrafiya or Sheikh Maqsoud. Farhad demanded the lifting of the siege he called, and warned that the actions of the government were a dangerous escalate that worsened the plight for local residents. SDF raids have increased in several majority Arab towns that they control. They claim the raids are targeting Islamic State sleeper cell. The raids and a stepped-up campaign to recruit young people for military conscription have caused outrage among certain Arab tribal groups. They accuse the SDF, which denies the charge, of discrimination. Officials said that U.S. Syria envoy Tom Barrack, and CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper met earlier with SDF Commander General Mazloum Abdul and senior officials in the northeast of Syria. The focus of the talks was on accelerating the implementation of March's agreement with Damascus. In recent days, sporadic clashes intensified. Both Damascus as well as the SDF have accused each other of provocation. Under U.S. sponsorship, the two sides signed a historic agreement in March for integrating Kurdish-led force into Syria's institutional framework by year's end. This included transferring control to Damascus of oil and gas fields, airports and border crossings. Implementation has been slow despite mutual accusations that it is stalling. Washington also pressured the Kurds into accelerating negotiations with Damascus on terms that were acceptable to both parties. Turkey has also accused SDF of stalling, and warned that military action would be taken if they did not integrate with Syria's state apparatus. Reporting by Suleiman al-Khalidi Editing Bill Berkrot
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Trilogy Metals is now owned by the US after Trump approves a road for mining in Alaska
U.S. president Donald Trump said on Monday that he signed an executive ordering directing his administration allowing an access road into the Ambler district of Alaska in order to unlock domestic supply of copper and other mineral. The White House announced an investment of $35.6 million in Canada's Trilogy Metals. This is one possible developer for the region. The U.S. Government becomes a 10% stakeholder in the company, and has warrants for an additional 7.5%. Trilogy shares listed in the U.S. more than doubled to $4.72 after-hours. This partnership is a vote of confidence for the Ambler Mining District, and a significant step forward in domestic mineral development, which is fundamental to America's economy and security," said Kaleb Fröhlich, managing Director of Ambler Metals. Ambler Metals is a joint venture of Trilogy and Australia’s South32 Limited. Trump's order reverses Biden's administration's refusal of a 211 mile (340 km) road that was intended to allow mine development in north central Alaskan. Biden's Interior Department had in 2024 cited risks for caribou and fishing populations, which dozens of Native communities depend on as a subsistence. Trump stated at an Oval Office signing event that the project should have been operating for years and generating billions of dollars in revenue and providing a great deal of energy, minerals and other resources. The Alaska state agency who proposed the project appealed Biden's decision. The Sierra Club, an environmental group, said that development would damage the pristine landscapes in this region which support tribal peoples and wildlife. Athan Manuel said that the communities along the route of the road had consistently expressed their opposition to this destructive project. This order ignores these voices and favors corporate polluters. Reporting by Steve Holland, Washington; Nichola Groom, Los Angeles. Editing by Franklin Paul & Lincoln Feast.
Stocks are on tenterhooks, as Trump's tariff plans approach
Asian stocks stumbled on Wednesday as investors worried about escalating global trade wars awaited the details of U.S. president Donald Trump's proposed tariffs.
In recent weeks, investors have been focused on the new round reciprocal levies which the White House will announce at 2000 GMT on Wednesday. These are expected to go into effect immediately following the announcement.
Trump has already imposed duties on autos, aluminium and steel, as well as increased duties on all Chinese goods. This has rattled the markets, with fears growing that a full-blown global trade war may trigger a sharp economic slowdown.
Asian stocks dropped in the early morning trading after a turbulent session in the United States. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.3%, while South Korea's benchmark was down 0.57%.
Wall Street's benchmark S&P and Nasdaq both ended the session higher, after earlier losing ground. The Dow ended a little lower.
Chris Weston is the head of Pepperstone's research. He said: "We are experiencing a trading environment that is in a state if chop. Market players are adjusting their exposures at the margins and don't want to commit."
The blue-chip index rose 0.14%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3% in early trading.
Vasu Menon is the managing director for investment strategy at OCBC. He said: "Trump called April 2, 'Liberation Day,' but it's unlikely that investors will be truly liberated from tariff uncertainty."
This possibility will likely continue to make investors nervous.
Investors are becoming increasingly concerned by signs such as rising prices, a slowing economy and cracks on the labour market.
The data showed that U.S. manufacturing shrank in March, after two months of growth. A measure of inflation in the factory gates jumped to its highest level in almost three years due to rising concern over tariffs on imported products.
In a recent note, ING economists stated that "Tariffs were meant to reinvigorate U.S. Manufacturing, but they are more concerned about the impact on supply chains, and what it means for foreign retaliation, despite signs of a cooling in the domestic economy."
The Labour Department reported on Tuesday that U.S. employment opportunities fell by 194,000 in February to 7.568 millions as tariff uncertainty dampened labour demand.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury benchmark note in the United States was 4.189% during Asian hours, having fallen to 4.133% Tuesday. This is its lowest level since February 4.
Most currency pairs traded in tight ranges. The euro remained at $1.079125 while the sterling traded at $1.29125. The yen was slightly weaker, at 149.83 dollars per yen.
But the focus will be on tariff details. This is especially true after a report in the media said that Trump's advisers were considering a plan to raise duties by around 20% on products from almost every country rather than target certain countries or specific products.
"We are heading into Trump's time to shine, with many already having deleveraged in order to run as neutral or flat a position they can on equity, USD (dollar), and Treasuries." Pepperstone's Weston stated
Gold, which is seen as a safe haven against economic and political turmoil, was well-priced at $3,132.43 an ounce. This price, while up by 0.7%, was still just below the previous session's record high.
(source: Reuters)