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Bali flood waters recede after 16 deaths and two missing
Officials said that two people are still missing in Bali, Indonesia, a resort island. At least 16 people have been killed by flooding this week. Torrential Rains On Tuesday and Wednesday, the rapid rise of floods caused by the rains blocked major roads in Denpasar as well as six out of Bali's eight districts. Some areas also experienced landslides. I Nyoman Maha Putra, an architect and planning expert from the Warmadewa University, Denpasar, stated that the rapid development of the island had not taken into consideration the need for adequate drainage infrastructure. He said, "City planning does not take into account disasters." "All infrastructure construction is designed to make Bali more attractive for tourists and investors." Local media reported that Bali's Governor, Wayan Koster said, "Conversion of land use is not the cause for this week’s flooding in Denpasar." The Bali government's regional planning and development body did not respond immediately to a comment request. Bali's primary source of income is tourism. Last year, more than 6.3 millions international tourists arrived on the island. This was higher than the number of arrivals in 2019, the year prior to the COVID-19 pandemic that brought ground tourism to an end. Bali was the destination of choice for over 40% of Indonesian tourists last year. I Nyoman, head of Bali's search-and-rescue body, stated that the search for two missing persons was still continuing on Friday.
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Australian critical mineral companies head to Washington
Four sources familiar with the matter said that more than 20 Australian companies, including Trafigura's Nyrstar unit, will be heading to the U.S. to explore possible areas of collaboration next week. The Australian Trade and Investment Commission will lead a delegation to Washington and New York for meetings with senior officials of the Trump administration. The trip was described as routine by sources, but the companies are expected to arrive soon after the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke with President Donald Trump about the opportunities for the critical minerals companies of both countries in the last week. Albanese, the Australian ambassador to New York for the United Nations General Assembly later this month, has asked to meet with Trump. No meetings have yet been announced. Australia is trying to establish itself as a major supplier of Western allies, as they develop an alternative supply network to China. Meanwhile, the U.S. prepares to invest in its battery and defense industries. Reports last month indicated that the Trump Administration was considering reallocating at least $2 billion of the CHIPS Act funds, which support semiconductor research and chip plant construction, for critical minerals projects. Last month, Nyrstar won the support of the Australian government to evaluate whether it is possible to produce four essential minerals in two aging smelters. This includes antimony that is used for ammunition and whose exports from China are limited. Nyrstar will need additional funds to put this plan into motion. Some attendees were looking for funding opportunities. The meetings are described as an opportunity to understand the priorities of the Trump Administration, as well as meeting administration officials and building relationships. Other miners include Australia's leading lithium producer Pilbara Minerals, which supplies lithium primarily to China and South Korea. International Graphite, which has a graphite mining operation in Western Australia, is expanding its processing capabilities. Representatives from Pilbara Minerals International Graphite, and Cobalt Blue have confirmed that they will be attending next week. The delegation will be without Australia's Trade and Resources Minister Madeleine King. Requests for comments on the prospects of major announcements were not immediately responded to by the ministers' offices. Australia and the United States have a vital minerals partnership. Under legislation passed late in 2023, Australian deposits will qualify as domestic supplies for U.S. defense procurement. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Melanie Burton).
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UBS increases gold price target to 3,800 oz by the end of 2025
UBS increased its gold price forecast on Friday by $300 per ounce to $3800 by the end 2025 and by $200 per ounce to $3900 by mid-2026. It cited anticipated Federal Reserve easing, U.S. Dollar weakness linked to rate reductions and geopolitical risk. The Swiss bank revised its estimate of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holdings. It now projects levels to surpass 3,900 metric tonnes by the end 2025. This is close to the previous record set in October of 2020 of 3,915 metric tons. We maintain an attractive view on gold, and remain long the metal as part of our global asset allocation. UBS stated that a percentage of gold in the mid-single digits is optimal. Bank of America highlighted geopolitical issues and differences in policy between the U.S. Administration and the Federal Reserve, as well as U.S. president Donald Trump's preference for lower interest rates. UBS anticipates that central bank gold purchases will remain strong at around 900 to 950 tons in this year. This is slightly less than last year's record-breaking purchases just over 1,000 tons. UBS said that the Fed could be forced to increase rates if inflation surprises lead to higher interest rates. The price of non-yielding gold, which is often viewed as a safe haven during times of economic and political uncertainty, and also known to perform well when interest rates are low, reached a new record of $3,673.95 Tuesday, and has gained over 39% in the past year. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Rashmi aich and Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
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Japan increases sanctions on Russia by reducing the price of Russian oil to $47.50
A government spokesperson announced that Japan had decided to reduce its price cap for Russian crude oil from $60 per barrel to $47.60 starting Friday to punish Moscow's continued war in Ukraine. This move follows the European Union's decision in July to lower its cap on Russian crude oil to $47.60, as part of their 18th package of sanctions against Moscow. Yoshimasa Haiashi, the Chief Cabinet Secretary, said at a regular press briefing that Japan would also impose further asset freezing and export control restrictions on entities in Russia as part of an international effort to bring peace to Ukraine. An official from the Industry Ministry said that the reduced oil price cap is not expected to affect Japan's crude acquisition. Tokyo and other G7 nations have agreed to reduce Russian oil imports as a response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Japan still buys Sakhalin Blend crude. This is a by-product of the liquefied gas produced at the Sakhalin-2 Project. It's vital for Japan's energy safety as it represents about 9% its LNG imports. The official from the Ministry said that transactions related to the Sakhalin Project are exempted from the price-cap rule. Japan imported 95,299 barrels of crude oil from Russia in the period between January and July. This represents just 0.1% of Japan's total imports. (Reporting and editing by Himani Sarkar, Tom Hogue and Kantaro Obayashi)
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French and Benelux stocks: Factors to watch
Here are some company news and stories that could impact the markets in France and Benelux or even individual stocks. EURONEXT Euronext, the pan-European stock exchange operator, announced on Thursday that it would be added to France's CAC 40 blue-chip index. Euronext announced that Teleperformance, a French call centre and office services company, will be excluded from the CAC 40 index. The SBF 120 index, which measures the most traded stocks, will now include Abivax and Exail Technologies, instead of Esso and OVH. The changes will take effect on September 22. ROBERTET The French fragrance group announced half-year revenue of 446.3 millions euros on Thursday and confirmed its outlook for the year. VALLOUREC Pan-European market data: European Equities speed guide................... FTSE Eurotop 300 index.............................. DJ STOXX index................................................ Top 10 STOXX sectors................................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors......................Top 10 Eurotop 300 sector..................... Pan-European market data: European Equities speed guide................... FTSE Eurotop 300 index.............................. DJ STOXX index...................................... Top 10 STOXX sectors........................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors...................... Top 10 Eurotop 300 sectors..................... Top 25 European pct gainers....................... Top 25 European pct losers........................ Main stock markets: Dow Jones............... Wall Street report ..... Nikkei 225............. Tokyo report............ FTSE 100............... London report........... Xetra DAX............. Frankfurt items......... CAC-40................. Paris items............ World Indices..................................... survey of world bourse outlook......... European Asset Allocation........................ News at a glance: Top News............. Equities.............. Main oil report........... Main currency report.....
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Morning bid Europe-Markets to the Fed: Please take five more.
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. It was good to hear that. The CPI in the U.S. was a little firmer, but not enough to notice. The prices that feed core PCE were surprising benign. This led analysts to reduce their forecasts from +0.2%m/m to a steady 2,9% for the year. The Federal Reserve is set to begin its easing cycle next week with 25 basis point, but the markets only see a 7% probability of a 50bps. The magnitude of the decline in labour market data would lead you to assume that the more aggressive options will be discussed. If the vote is 25 to 50 but one or two voters dissent, this could be enough dovishness to keep the rally going. It is important to provide a dovish outlook, given that futures markets have begun to price in 71bps cuts by Christmas and 125bps cuts by July. Five cuts over five meetings is fine. Oh, and I'd like to make a request to the Fed: please return to a single interest rate, not this range of 4.25-4.50. We are no longer at zero. In the last two weeks, bonds have delivered a quarter point cut in mortgage rates. The yields on 10-year notes are down by 20bps. Investors need Fed Chair Jerome Powell's willingness to ease up on the market, depending of course on the data. The prospect of lower U.S. interest rates has allowed liquidity to flow in Asia, and investors have been able to place bets on everything AI. All three indexes, in Japan and South Korea, have reached record highs. Kospi is alone up nearly 6% in the past week. The blue chips of China are now back at their peaks in early 2022. They have survived Beijing's warnings about capitalist excesses. In the face of falling yields the dollar has held relatively well against the majors while losing ground on less popular crosses. The dollar index has only a slight decline on the week despite the constant talk about the end of exceptionalism. The Australian dollar has finally broken out of its trading range and reached a 10-month high, while the Norwegian crown is now at its highest level since early in 2023. In the last month, both have seen their yield spreads against the USD move in their favor by around 40 basis points. Both are also testing high chart levels. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. - Appearances of Bank of Spain Governor Jose Luis Escriva, and ECB Policy Maker Olli Reinn - UK manufacturing output and GDP for July. Final CPI readings for the EU - US consumer sentiment for September
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Oil prices continue to fall due to oversupply and US demand concerns
The oil prices dropped on Friday. This was in addition to the big drops in the previous session. Concerns about a possible softening in U.S. Demand and a general oversupply were offset by concerns about disruptions of supply due to conflict in the Middle East or war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures dropped 49 cents or 0.74% to $65.88 per barrel at 0419 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 51 cents or 0.82% to $61.86. The (U.S. inflation) battle is not yet won. This dampens demand for oil in the world's biggest economy. Even geopolitical turmoil is not enough to sustain oil prices. Fundamentals indicate an oversupply of crude and a lacklustre level of demand, said Priyanka Sackdeva, senior analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova. The government reported on Thursday that U.S. consumer price indexes in August rose by the highest in seven months, and a large number of first-time unemployment aid applications were filed last week. This has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to boost economic growth next week. This would then increase demand for oil. The oil price rose by up to 2% on Monday, due to the possibility of disruptions in trade or production from war and conflict. However, the benchmarks began falling on Thursday. They have now erased the gains made earlier this week. Losses began when the International Energy Agency, in its monthly report, said that world oil supplies would increase more quickly than expected due to planned production increases by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies such as Russia. OPEC's own report did not change its high growth predictions for global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. It said the world economy maintained a strong growth trend. SDIC Futures reported in a daily update that the crude market is constantly bouncing between concerns over short-term disruptions and surplus supply pressures. However, geopolitical fears are reducing support for prices. OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it would increase its oil production quotas starting in October, as Saudi Arabia, the group's leading member, tries to regain market shares. Saudi Arabian crude oil exports are expected to increase, according to several sources on Thursday. The state-controlled Aramco is shipping 1.65 million barrels of crude oil per day to China in October. This is a sharp rise from the 1.43 million barrels per days allocated to China in September. The IEA reported that in Russia, which is expected to be the second largest producer of crude oil behind the U.S. by 2024, revenues from the sale of crude and petroleum products declined in August, reaching one of their lowest levels since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. A report released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil stocks increased last week, rising by 3.9 millions barrels to 424.6million barrels. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue, Lewis Jackson and Sam Li in Beijing)
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Indonesia seizes Weda Bay Nickel area 148 hectares
Rilke Jeffreyri Huwae, an official from the mining ministry, said that a task force in Indonesia seized a 148 hectare area (366 acres) of PT Weda Bay Nickel because it did not have the necessary forestry permits. The government is targeting illegal mining operations as part of an overall crackdown. Last month, President Prabowo said that the government had identified more than 1,000 illegal mining operations. Rilke stated that PT Weda Bay Nickel holds a mining permit but does not have the forestry licence required to exploit the region. The nickel-rich Halmahera island is home to the Weda Bay Nickel Mine, which is controlled by China's Tsingshan Group, France Eramet SA, and Indonesia Aneka Tambang. Febrie Adriansyah is a senior prosecutor in the Attorney's General Office. She said that the task force also seized a 172.8 hectare mine area owned by PT Tonia Mitra Sejahtera, located in Southeast Sulawesi. He said that the land was part of a total area of about 4.2 million acres which were identified as having no forestry permits. Reporting by Bernadette Cristina Munthe; Writing by Fransiska Naangoy; Editing David Stanway
Sources say that Russia is increasingly relying on cryptocurrency for its oil trade.
Four sources who have direct knowledge of this matter claim that Russia uses cryptocurrencies to avoid Western sanctions in its oil trading with China and India.
Although Russia has publicly endorsed the use of digital currencies and passed a bill last summer to allow them in international trade, the use of these currencies in the oil trade in the country has never been reported.
Sources said that some Russian oil companies use bitcoin, ether, and stablecoins like Tether to convert Chinese yuan, Indian rupees, and other currencies into Russian roubles. They added that this is only a small, but growing, part of Russia's total oil trade which, according to the International Energy Agency, was valued at $192 billion in 2017.
Due to the sensitive nature of the issue, all sources refused to be named.
Cryptocurrencies are already helping countries like Iran and Venezuela, which have been subject to U.S. sanctions, keep their economies going without having to use the dollar as the currency of choice for global oil transactions.
Russia's move follows Venezuela's use of digital currencies in crude and fuel imports after Washington reimposed its sanctions.
A fifth source said that Russia has set up several systems, and USDT (Tether), is only one of them. The researcher, who works for an investigation firm that tracks the use cryptocurrency to circumvent sanctions, asked not be identified because of non-disclosure agreements.
The Russian central banking did not reply to a comment request. Last year, it said that sanctions-related delays in payments had become a major problem for the Russian economy.
Donald Trump wants to improve the relationship with Russia while he pushes to end the war in Ukraine. However, it is unclear whether sanctions will be removed. Reports said that the White House had been drafting options to ease sanctions, but Trump stated on March 7 that more sanctions against Russia are being seriously considered.
One of the sources stated that crypto would continue to be used for Russian oil trading even if the sanctions were lifted and the dollar could be used again. They said that it is a useful tool and makes operations run faster.
Two sources familiar with the transactions described how a Chinese buyer who purchases Russian oil pays the trading company that acts as the middleman yuan to an offshore account.
They said that the middleman converts it into crypto, transfers it to another bank account, and then sends it to a third Russian account to be converted to roubles.
According to a source familiar with the operations of the Russian oil trader, the crypto transactions for his sales to China are in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars each month.
Analysts said that traditional currencies still make up the majority of Russia's oil transaction, but they also suggested other alternatives, such as the UAE dirham.
Garantex, a Russian crypto exchange, has been sanctioned by the United States in 2022, and by the European Union just last month. Last week, the platform suspended its services after Tether banned digital wallets from its platform.
According to a source who advises the Kremlin, cryptocurrency is one way of avoiding payment problems. The Royal United Services Institute in the UK and the Centre for Information Resilience also support this view. Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein, Aizhu chen, editing by Alex Lawler and Dmitry Zhdannikov, Kirby Donovan.
(source: Reuters)