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Increased supply of iron ore slashes prices; dollar strength limits gains
Iron ore prices dropped for the third session in a row on Thursday, despite a strengthening dollar. This was due to increased shipments out of Australia and Brazil. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading 0.36% lower, at 698.5 Yuan ($97.51). As of 0354 GMT, the benchmark July iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down 0.37% at $92.4 per ton. Analysts at ANZ said that "Iron Ore Futures were on the verge of a new low for the year as strong supplies and lower production of steel in China weighs on sentiment". Data from Chinese consultancy Mysteel shows that inventories of imported iron-ore sintering fins rose for the third consecutive week, reaching 12.3 million metric tons by June 25, according to Mysteel. Mysteel said that the consumption of imported sintering fins had fallen by 1.5% on a weekly basis. The weaker dollar was still a factor in the price rises. It fell to multi-year lows after Donald Trump's remarks about replacing Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell raised concerns over the Fed's independence. Dollar-denominated investments are cheaper for holders of currencies other than the greenback. Everbright Futures, a broker, reported that the major producer Vale increased its iron ore supply due to a rush at the end of season. This contributed to increased iron ore shipments globally from Australia and Brazil. Li Qiang, Premier of China, said Thursday that the government would take "forceful measures" to increase domestic consumption. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also rose on the DCE. They increased by 1.45% and 0.58 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar dropped 0.47%, while hot-rolled coils fell 0.36%. Wire rod also slipped 0.21%, and stainless steel climbed 1.28%.
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Shanghai copper reaches two-week high due to dollar weakness
Shanghai copper prices reached a two-week-high on Thursday. This was boosted by the weaker U.S. Dollar, which dropped to its lowest level for over three years and relief due to the Israel-Iran truce deal. As of 0132 GMT, the most traded copper contract at Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.6% to 79,000 yuan per metric tonne, its highest level since June 11. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.7%, to $9.777 per ton. The dollar dropped 0.4%, to its lowest level since March 2022. This was due to concerns raised by a Wall Street Journal article that said Donald Trump had considered replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in September or October. This report raised concerns over the soundness of U.S. financial policy. A weaker dollar makes greenback-denominated assets more affordable to holders of other currencies. The "ceasefire" between Iran and Israel, on the geopolitical side, has had a positive impact on the copper price, said Kelvin Woong, senior analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA. Trump said that he will likely ask Iran to commit to ending its nuclear ambitions during talks next week. He also credited U.S. attacks on Iran for bringing an end to the conflict between Israel and Tehran. Goldman Sachs, in a recent note, said that it expects the price of copper to increase in the second half 2025, to an average $9,890 a metric ton. The bank cited fears of a global shortage of copper due to U.S. Tariffs and increased Chinese activity. LME aluminium increased by 0.3% at $2.570 per ton. Lead gained 0.6% to $2.044.5. Nickel firmed up by 0.9% at $15,215 per ton. Zinc was up 0.8% to $2.725. Tin fell 0.4% to $33,050. SHFE aluminium increased 0.4%, to 20,380 Yuan per ton. Zinc gained 0.9%, to 22,165 Yuan. Lead fell 0.8%, to 16,675 Yuan. Tin dropped 1%, to 256 930 Yuan. Nickel rose 0.4%, to 124 110 Yuan. $1 = 7.1605 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Sumana Niandy).
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Demand for crude oil is strong as the drawdown of US crude stocks signals a rise in prices
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, continuing gains made the day before, as an unexpectedly large drawdown in U.S. crude inventories signaled a strong demand. Investors, however, were cautious due to the Iran-Israel ceasefire, and the stability of the Middle East. Brent crude futures were up 15 cents or 0.2% to $67.83 per barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), gained 20 cents or 0.3% to $65.12 per barrel. The benchmarks both rose by nearly 1% Wednesday after recovering from losses in the first part of the week. This was due to data showing a resilient U.S. market. Yuki Takashima is an economist at Nomura Securities. He said that some buyers favor the solid demand shown by falling inventory in U.S. Weekly statistics. He said that investors are still nervous and want to know the status of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The market is now focusing on OPEC+'s production levels. Takashima predicted WTI would return to its pre-conflict range of $60-$65. ANZ analysts stated that the focus of the market had shifted back to fundamentals with the deescalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel. They also pointed out data showing U.S. Crude Oil inventories falling for a 5th consecutive week. ANZ analysts wrote in a report that "US government data shows the US driving seasons is in full swing following a slow start." Energy Information Administration (EIA), on Wednesday, reported that U.S. crude and fuel inventories decreased in the week ending June 20, as refinery activity and demand increased. The EIA reported that crude inventories dropped by 5.8 millions barrels. This was more than analysts expected in a poll which predicted a draw of 797,000 barrels. The gasoline stocks fell unexpectedly by 2.1m barrels, as compared to forecasts of a 381,000 barrel build. This was despite the fact that gasoline supply, which is a proxy for consumer demand, reached its highest level since December 2021. Igor Sechin said on Saturday that OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia - could accelerate the production increases by a year. In the meantime, U.S. president Donald Trump has hailed a swift end to the war between Iran & Israel. He said Washington will likely ask Tehran to commit to ending its nuclear ambitions during talks with Iranian officials in Tehran next week. Trump said that on Wednesday the U.S. had not given up on its maximum pressure against Iran, including restrictions on the sale of Iranian oil. However, he indicated a possible easing of enforcement in order to help rebuild the country. (Reporting from Yuka Obayashi, Tokyo; Emily Chow, Singapore; Editing done by Sonali Paul).
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Aker BP Bites Dust in Norwegian Sea
Aker BP and its partners have drilled a dry well on the Rondeslottet prospect in the Norwegian Sea.Wildcat well 6405/7-4 was drilled in production license 1005, which was included in the Awards in Predefined Areas (APA) 2018, with awards taking place in March 2019.Aker BP is the operator of the license with 40% working interest, with partners Vår Energi and Norske Shell holding 40% and 20% shares, respectfully.The wildcat well was drilled using Saipem’s Scarabeo 8 semi-submersible drilling rig.The well is located in the Møre Basin, around 80 kilometers north of the Ormen Lange field and 175 kilometers northwest of Kristiansund.The well has been permanently plugged and abandoned.
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Gold prices rise as dollar weakens and Trump's Powell criticism fuels uncertainty
Gold prices rose on Thursday due to a weaker US dollar and growing unrest after news reports claimed that Donald Trump, the U.S. president, had considered replacing Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell in September or October. The reports raised concern over the future independence and stability of the U.S. Central Bank, which boosted demand for bullion as a safe haven. As of 0242 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.2%, at $3,339.20 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.3% to $3353.10. Gold priced in greenbacks is now less expensive for buyers overseas. Powell said to a U.S. Senate committee on Wednesday that, while Trump's tariffs might cause a temporary price increase, the risk of persistent inflation is enough to make the central bank cautious about any further rate reductions. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that Trump clearly wants to have a more dovish Fed chairman the next time around. The increased probability of a rate-cutting aggressive cycle is therefore weighing down the USD. Bullion is more likely to perform well in periods of uncertainty or when interest rates are low. On Wednesday, Trump referred to Powell as "terrible", and said that he was considering three or four candidates to fill the top Fed position. The Wall Street Journal also reported that Trump had even considered announcing Powell as Powell's successor in September or October. The markets are awaiting the U.S. GDP report due later today, as well as data on Personal Consumption Expenditures on Friday. Waterer stated that "Gold is basically treading on water until we get a reading on the next batch U.S. macrodata including GDP and PCE core". On Wednesday, the ceasefire between Israel, Iran and Syria appeared to hold. Trump, speaking at the NATO summit, applauded the quick end of the 12-day conflict. He also said that he will seek an Iranian commitment to stop its nuclear ambitions during next week's talks. Silver spot rose 0.2% to $36.36 an ounce. Platinum climbed 2.3% to $1.385.38, and palladium soared 5.5% at $1,115.58.
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Vietnam claims its refineries are not affected by Middle East tensions
The Ministry of Industry and Trade announced on Thursday that the Middle East tensions are not affecting the refineries in Vietnam at this time. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Vietnam will import 5.1 millions tons of refined petroleum in the second half this year. This is an increase of 6.2% over the first half. Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical, which operated at 114.4% capacity during the first half of 2014, mainly uses crude oil from Africa and domestic sources. The 130,000-barrel-per-day refinery is expected to operate at 14% to 15% above designed capacity for the rest of the year, and imports, which account for 30%-35% of its crude oil input, and are sourced from Libya and West Africa, the ministry said. The statement quoted the CEO of Nghi Son Refining & Petrochemical saying its 200,000-barrel-per-day refinery had sufficient crude oil supplies and was operating normally. According to the ministry, two refineries will produce 7.7 millions tons of crude oil during the second half 2025. This is a slight decrease from the 7.8 million tonnes produced in the first half. (Reporting and editing by John Mair; Khanh Vu)
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Shanghai copper reaches two-week highs as dollar falls
The Shanghai copper price reached its highest level in two weeks on Thursday, as the dollar fell to its lowest point in over three years. This lifted market sentiment. As of 0132 GMT, the most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 0.3% to 78.820 yuan (10,995.79) per ton. This is its highest level since June 11. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.3%, to $9.737 per ton. The dollar dropped 0.1%, to its lowest level since March 2022. Concerns about the future independence and soundness of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policies undermined confidence in the currency. A weaker dollar makes greenback-denominated assets more affordable to holders of other currencies. The premiums for the London Metal Exchange's (LME) nearby copper contracts have fallen from their multi-year highs, on expectations that deliveries into LME-registered storage facilities in the next few weeks will ease the tightness. Goldman Sachs, however, expects the copper price to increase in the second half 2025, to an average $9,890 a metric ton. The bank cited fears of a global shortage of supply due to U.S. Tariffs and increased Chinese activity. Trump, on the geopolitical side of things, said that he will likely ask Iran for a commitment to stop its nuclear ambitions during talks next week. He also credited U.S. attacks on Iran with ending the war between Israel & Tehran quickly. LME aluminium rose 0.2%, to $2.567.5 per ton. SHFE aluminium rose 0.4%, to 20,385 Yuan. LME Zinc gained 0.3%, to $2.711.5. Lead grew by 0.4%, to $2.040. Nickel advanced 0.4%, to $15.130. The SHFE led rose 0.6%, to 17,200 Yuan. Nickel rose 1.4%, to 119.530 Yuan. Tin rose 1.7%, to 266,700 Yuan. Zinc moved up 0.6%, to 22,100 Yuan. ($1 = 7.1682 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy)
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Demand for crude oil is strong as the drawdown of US crude stocks signals a rise in prices
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, continuing gains made the day before. A larger-than expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories signaled a strong demand for oil, but investors were cautious over the Iran-Israel truce and the stability of the Middle East. Brent crude futures were up 12 cents or 0.2% to $67.80 per barrel at 0030 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a blend of U.S. West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude, gained 20 cents or 0.3% to $65.12. The benchmarks both rose by nearly 1% Wednesday after recovering from losses in the first part of the week. This was due to data showing a resilient U.S. market. Yuki Takashima is an economist at Nomura Securities. He said that some buyers favor the solid demand shown by the falling inventory in U.S. Weekly statistics. He said that investors are still nervous and want to know the status of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The market's attention has now shifted to the OPEC+ levels. Takashima predicted WTI would return to its pre-conflict range of $60-$65. Energy Information Administration (EIA), on Wednesday, reported that U.S. crude and fuel inventories decreased last week due to increased refining and demand. The EIA reported that crude inventories dropped by 5.8 millions barrels during the week ended June 20. This was more than analysts expected in a poll, which predicted a draw of 797,000 barrels. The gasoline stocks fell unexpectedly by 2.1m barrels, as compared to forecasts of a 381,000-barrel increase. This was despite the fact that gasoline supply, which is a proxy for consumer demand, reached its highest level since December 2021. Igor Sechin said on Saturday that OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia - could accelerate the production increases by a year. In the meantime, U.S. president Donald Trump has hailed a swift end to the war between Iran and Israel. He said Washington will likely ask Tehran to commit to ending its nuclear ambitions during talks with Iranian officials in Tehran next week. Trump said that on Wednesday the U.S. had not ceased its maximum pressure against Iran, including restrictions on the sale of Iranian oil. However, he indicated a possible easing in enforcement for the sake of the rebuilding process. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul; Yuka Obayashi)
Sources say that Russia is increasingly relying on cryptocurrency for its oil trade.
Four sources who have direct knowledge of this matter claim that Russia uses cryptocurrencies to avoid Western sanctions in its oil trading with China and India.
Although Russia has publicly endorsed the use of digital currencies and passed a bill last summer to allow them in international trade, the use of these currencies in the oil trade in the country has never been reported.
Sources said that some Russian oil companies use bitcoin, ether, and stablecoins like Tether to convert Chinese yuan, Indian rupees, and other currencies into Russian roubles. They added that this is only a small, but growing, part of Russia's total oil trade which, according to the International Energy Agency, was valued at $192 billion in 2017.
Due to the sensitive nature of the issue, all sources refused to be named.
Cryptocurrencies are already helping countries like Iran and Venezuela, which have been subject to U.S. sanctions, keep their economies going without having to use the dollar as the currency of choice for global oil transactions.
Russia's move follows Venezuela's use of digital currencies in crude and fuel imports after Washington reimposed its sanctions.
A fifth source said that Russia has set up several systems, and USDT (Tether), is only one of them. The researcher, who works for an investigation firm that tracks the use cryptocurrency to circumvent sanctions, asked not be identified because of non-disclosure agreements.
The Russian central banking did not reply to a comment request. Last year, it said that sanctions-related delays in payments had become a major problem for the Russian economy.
Donald Trump wants to improve the relationship with Russia while he pushes to end the war in Ukraine. However, it is unclear whether sanctions will be removed. Reports said that the White House had been drafting options to ease sanctions, but Trump stated on March 7 that more sanctions against Russia are being seriously considered.
One of the sources stated that crypto would continue to be used for Russian oil trading even if the sanctions were lifted and the dollar could be used again. They said that it is a useful tool and makes operations run faster.
Two sources familiar with the transactions described how a Chinese buyer who purchases Russian oil pays the trading company that acts as the middleman yuan to an offshore account.
They said that the middleman converts it into crypto, transfers it to another bank account, and then sends it to a third Russian account to be converted to roubles.
According to a source familiar with the operations of the Russian oil trader, the crypto transactions for his sales to China are in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars each month.
Analysts said that traditional currencies still make up the majority of Russia's oil transaction, but they also suggested other alternatives, such as the UAE dirham.
Garantex, a Russian crypto exchange, has been sanctioned by the United States in 2022, and by the European Union just last month. Last week, the platform suspended its services after Tether banned digital wallets from its platform.
According to a source who advises the Kremlin, cryptocurrency is one way of avoiding payment problems. The Royal United Services Institute in the UK and the Centre for Information Resilience also support this view. Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein, Aizhu chen, editing by Alex Lawler and Dmitry Zhdannikov, Kirby Donovan.
(source: Reuters)