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Tin prices hit 4-month peak on declining stocks, tight supplies
Prices of soldering tin reached four-month highs Tuesday due to concerns about the supply from Indonesia, a major producer. Also, stocks registered at the London Metal Exchange have been declining. The benchmark tin price on the LME rose 0.5% to $32,850 per metric tonne after reaching $33,065, which was its highest level since October 14, and has gained 14% this year. After Indonesia's January refined-tin exports fell 67% from December to 1,566 tonnes, prices of the metal have risen higher than other metals traded on the LME. A tin dealer said that the approval time for export permits is expected to delay tin exports in Indonesia during the first quarter. This is because several smelters need to get their export quotas approved by the government, on top of the export permits they already have. He said that the remaining permits will be issued in February. However, the muslim fasting month Ramadan may slow down the mining activity in March. This would allow exports to only fully recover in the second quarter. Analysts at Macquarie believe that the global tin industry will also be facing a deficit of 13,000 tons this year. This compares to a shortage of 14,000 tonnes in 2024. Macquarie estimates that global tin supply will be 388,000 tons in 2018. Tin stocks stored in LME warehouses provide further support to prices At 3,910 tonnes, they are down 21% from late 2024 and at their lowest level since mid-2023. Demand for tin continues to be strong. According to the Semiconductor Association, global semiconductor sales will grow by double-digits in 2025. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Polina Dewitt)
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The price of gas in Europe has risen on the news that EU is working on flexible storage targets
Dutch wholesale gas contracts recovered earlier losses which sent prices to near four-week lows. Prices also rose after an EU draft will be working on more flexible targets for filling gas storage. A draft EU document revealed that the European Commission would work to develop more flexible targets so EU countries can fill their gas storage before winter. This follows concerns from some governments about Europe's strict deadlines for filling up. According to LSEG, the benchmark front-month contract for the Dutch TTF Hub reversed earlier losses, and rose by 1,63 euros, or $15.16/mmBtu to 49.45 Euros per megawatt hour The contract traded earlier at 47.15 Euros/MWh, the lowest level since 20 January. The Dutch April contract increased by 1.85 Euros to 49.58 Euros/MWh. The day-ahead contract in Britain was up by 0.8 pence to 118.55p/therm. According to LSEG, the TTF benchmark front month contract has dropped around 16.5% from its intra-day two year high of 59.27 euro/MWh on February 10. In 2022, after Russia cut gas supplies to Europe, the European Union introduced its current targets. Member countries are required to fill their storage caverns up to 90% capacity by November. Intermediate targets include February, May and July. The draft document of the European Commission, which is due to be released next week, states: "The Commission, in conjunction with the extension of the Gas Storage Regulation, will work with the member states to promote more coordinated, flexible, and dynamic gas storage refilling targets, including." The document added that this will "reduce the stress on systems associated with gas storage refilling". Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that EU gas storage sites are about 44,05% full and have been for the past few months. This is due to colder weather and less wind. On Tuesday, U.S. officials and Russian officials met in Riyadh. This could pave the road for a meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart. The benchmark carbon contract in Europe was down by 1.76 euros at 75.45 euro per metric ton. (Reporting by Susanna Twidale, Editing by Nina Chestney & Shailesh Kumar)
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NOPA US soybean crush in January drops to 200.383 millions bushels
According to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association on Tuesday, U.S. soybean processors crushed their second largest volume of soy beans ever in January. This is down from a record-high set in December. NOPA members, who account for 95% or more of U.S. processed soybeans, crushed a total of 200.383 millions bushels last month. This is down 3.0% compared to December's record crushing of 206.604million bushels, but 7.9% higher than the January 2024 crushing of 185.780million bushels. Nine analysts polled estimated that the January 2025 crush would be below 204,536 million bushels. Estimates ranged between 200.000 million and 208.700 millions bushels with a median estimate of 205.000million bushels. As several new plants came online, soybean crushing rates increased. Other crushers also expanded their capacity to meet the rising demand for biofuels. Analysts say that a period of extreme cold last month likely affected the efficiency of plants, while snowfalls and icy roads on several southern states hampered some processors. They said that the slow pace of crushing at some plants was also due to soymeal supplies. As of the 31st of January, the stock of soyoil among NOPA's members reached a new six-month record of 1.274 bn pounds. This is up 3.1% compared to the 1.236 bn pounds of stocks at the end December. However, this is down 15.4% compared to the 1.507 bn pounds of stocks one year ago. Six analysts estimated that, on average the analyst's expected stock to increase to 1.289 billion pound. Estimates of soyoil stock ranged between 1.135 billion and 1.478 billion pounds, with a median of 1.275 billion pounds. (Reporting from Karl Plume).
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Tupras, Turkey's largest refiner, has stopped buying Russian crude after sanctions
The company stated on a conference call after releasing its earnings that the largest Turkish oil refiner, Tupras, has stopped purchasing Russian crude due to U.S. sanctioned announced on 10 January against Russian energy companies as well as tankers transporting Russian oil. Levent Bayar is the executive director for investor relations at Tupras. He said, "We have stopped purchasing Urals due to the recent sanctions. We will receive our final cargoes in February." Tupras has become one of Russia's largest importers since the invasion of Ukraine by Moscow in 2022. According to data provided by Turkey's energy regulator, Russian oil accounted for 65% of Turkey’s total oil imports between January and November 2024. Kpler, a shipping data analytics company, reported that Tupras's Russian crude imports nearly doubled from 2021 to 2022 at 170,000 barrels per day. This is the highest level ever. Kpler data shows that Tupras imported 170,000 barrels per day of Russian crude in 2022, nearly doubling from 2021. Tupras reported on Tuesday a net profit for the full year of 18.32 billion Lira ($505.13million) as opposed to a profit last year of 77.35 milliards. $1 = 36.2680 Lira (Reporting and editing by David Holmes; Enes Tunagur)
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Qatar invests $10 billion in India
Qatar has pledged to invest $10 billion in India in various sectors. The two nations announced this in a statement released on Tuesday after Qatar's Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani visited New Delhi. The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that he had "a very productive meeting" during his two-day New Delhi visit with Qatar's Emir. Trade was a major topic in our discussions. Modi wrote in a blog post that he wanted to diversify and increase India-Qatar's trade ties. This was the first visit of a Qatari emir to South Asia in the last 10 years. Qatar has announced that it will invest $10 billion dollars in India, in areas such as infrastructure, technology and manufacturing, food safety, logistics, hospitality, and others. Indian Foreign Ministry said that the two countries are looking to sign a free-trade agreement and double their trade in five years to $28 billion. In the fiscal year ending March 2023, bilateral trade between the two countries was $18.77 Billion. This included mainly liquefied gas imports from Qatar. In 2010, Qatar was responsible for nearly 48% of India’s LNG imports. Both sides agreed to work together on enhancing bilateral energy cooperation. This would include mutual investments in energy infrastructure as well as settlement of bilateral trade using their respective currencies. Reporting by Shivam Patel; writing by Shilpa jamkhandikar, Tanvi Mehta and YPrajesh; editing by Hugh Lawson and YP Rajesh
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Brazil's Government Split over Multi-Billion Dollar Nuclear Plant Completion?
Two sources said that the Brazilian government is split over the completion of its third nuclear plant, after 40 years in construction. The country's economic team wants the project abandoned. The National Energy Policy Council, which has been delaying its decision about the Angra 3 plant since late last year, is the final authority on this matter. The Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira said that the matter is expected to come up at the next CNPE Meeting, which has not yet been scheduled. The construction of the plant in Angra dos Reis on the coast began in 1980 but was repeatedly halted due to funding issues and a corruption investigation in 2015. The project was unsuccessfully revived in 2022. This debate is taking place as President Luiz inacio Lula da So aims to position Latin America’s largest economy as an investment hub for green investments. In response to the increasing demand for climate friendly power, several countries in recent years have reconsidered their nuclear energy. Some people argue that Brazil's natural advantages are undermined by supporting nuclear energy. These include wind, solar, and hydropower. Many experts, however, consider that nuclear energy is a better alternative than thermal power. Thermal power is more costly and polluting. However it's often used during droughts. Both are similar in cost. The discussions were private, so the source spoke under condition of anonymity. The main argument against this is the lack funding. Who is going to cut their budget for this?" The project is supported by Energy Minister Silveira. In November, he called Angra 3 "a mausoleum." The Finance and Planning Ministries refused to comment. High Costs According to a study conducted by the state-owned development bank BNDES, the completion of the plant will require an additional 23 billion reais (4 billion dollars) in addition to the 12 billion reais that have already been spent. Eletronuclear, a state-owned company that oversees the project, has said it will take five years to complete the construction, plus the time needed for bidding, site mobilization, and other activities. BNDES also estimated that cancelling the project would cost 21 billion reais, including termination of contracts and penalties for canceling subsidized finance. One source claimed that the Finance Ministry had modeled scenarios in which total costs could reach up to 30 billion reais and warned of the possibility that electricity generated by the plant would drive up bills. Eletronuclear's President Raul Leite told a group of supporters that they plan to raise the majority of the funds needed from the market. He said that the worst infrastructure project was one that remained unfinished. Maintaining the Angra 3 site, which is still not finished, costs more than 1 billion reais per year. ? (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski, Bernadettebaum and Marcela Ayres)
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Gold prices rise as Trump's tariffs fuel demand for safe-haven assets
Gold prices rose Tuesday, as investors sought safe havens in gold amid concerns about economic growth caused by uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff plan. As of 09:32 am, spot gold rose 0.9% to $2.923.89 per ounce. After hitting a record-high of $2,942.70 in the previous week, ET (1432 GMT), gold prices rose 0.9% to $2923.89 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 1.4% to $2.940.30. Jim Wyckoff is a Kitco Metals senior analyst. He said: "We're seeing an increase in safe-haven demands due to the disruption of the Trump Administration and we also have a bullish chart position." Since taking office, Trump has quickly redrawn global trade battle lines with a series tariffs. Plans are in motion to impose sweeping tariffs on any country that taxes U.S. goods. Commerzbank's analysts wrote in a report that central bank purchases should continue to be supportive. The focus of the market has now shifted towards the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that are due on Wednesday, for clues about the central bank's future interest rate path. Wyckoff stated that if the economy begins to falter due to trade tariffs, we may see lower interest rates. Safe-haven gold bullion is a good investment because of geopolitical or economic uncertainty. It also thrives in low interest rates, as it pays no interest. At these levels, it is impossible to ignore the possibility of a further pullback. Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. He said that in order for gold to reach higher levels, there may need to be an increase in geopolitical risk, especially about Ukraine. Silver spot fell by 0.7%, to $32.57 per ounce. Platinum increased by 0.8%, to $983.20. Palladium rose 1.8% to $879.60.
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The CDU Conservatives, the favourites in German elections
The CDU and CSU, the conservative Christian Democratic Union of Germany and their Bavarian sister parties, are leading the polls ahead of the elections on February 23, and they are expected to form the next government. Here is a summary their main policy positions according to their campaign program. ECONOMY To boost the economy, CDU wants to reduce red tape, encourage investment and lower energy prices. It wants to reduce electricity taxes and grid charges, expand research on renewable energy, nuclear power and power storage. It wants to abolish Germany's Supply Chain Due Diligence Law. The party pledges to support the industry by leveraging digitalization, AI and cloud applications. The party will establish a Digital Ministry and a "Startup Protection Zone", which would shield new businesses from red tape. FINANCE The CDU would like to reduce corporate tax from 29.9% to maximum 25%. The CDU wants to keep a tax break for married couples, and increase tax breaks for children. Other parties have criticised CDU for not explaining how it would finance all of the tax cuts promised. CDU pledges to maintain Germany's Debt brake The constitutional mechanism, which limits the deficit of the federal government to just 0.35% output, has been criticized for hindering investment. The party leader Friedrich Merz, however, has left the door wide open for reforming the debt brake. MIGRATION AND BORDER TRAFFIC CDU supports stricter border controls and faster asylum processing. It also advocates deportation for those who do not have legal residency. It proposes a reform to the European Asylum Law, arguing that asylum applications should be processed outside the EU in safe third-country jurisdictions. The party wants to limit the social benefits of those who are required to leave. It also wants to expand the list safe countries of origin and suspend policies that allow families of refugees to move into Germany with subsidiary protection status. The bill also seeks to reverse the government's policy of rapid naturalization and prohibit dual citizenship. The CDU also plans to simplify recognition of foreign professional qualification and create a "Work-and-Stay Agency", a digital platform that will streamline visas, residence permits, and recruitment for foreign skilled workers. SECURITY The CDU supports stronger law enforcement, including tougher punishments, faster legal proceedings, increased surveillance in high-risk areas, and more aggressive prosecutions. It promises to take stronger action against extremists on the right and left. FOREIGN POLITICS The CDU has committed to a minimum of complying with the NATO defence spending quota, which is 2% of Gross Domestic Product. It wants to reinstate mandatory military service, and lead an initiative towards a European missile defense system. It calls for stronger transatlantic relations with the U.S., and renewed cooperation between France and Poland. It supports Ukraine with humanitarian, financial and military assistance, as well as diplomatic, financial and political support. It supports Israel, and it backs the two-state solution. The party wants to reduce reliance on China. CLIMATE The CDU's "Yes to Cars!" policy opposes anticar measures, such as driving bans in inner cities, reduced parking spaces, and an overall highway speed limit. The report advocates lifting the EU planned ban on combustion engines, reviewing fleet emissions limits, preventing penalties against carmakers who fail to meet emission targets, while also expanding charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. The party wants to repeal the law that gradually phases out domestic heating with oil and gas, but it supports tax incentives on energy-efficient home renovations. The party also proposes to reinstate agricultural diesel subsidies as well as promote emissions trading. SOCIAL POLICIES CDU wants to increase housing supply through a simplified building code, expanded construction zones and social housing investments. The government wants to introduce compulsory preschool language tests to measure German proficiency. It also promises to increase student financial aid, child benefits and tax exemptions. The report proposes increasing childcare access, increasing the tax deductions, and reversing last year's law that reduced regulations on gender transitions. (Reporting and editing by Riham Alkousaa, Maria Martinez; Alexandra Hudson and Matthias Williams)
Futures dip as care over Trump sets in; dollar down
U.S. stocks looked set to draw back modestly from their alltime highs on Friday, as a. degree of caution set in after President Donald Trump's newest. comments on tariffs and trade.
The dollar headed for its biggest weekly drop in 2 months,. under pressure from a greater sense of confidence amongst. financiers that the Federal Reserve might keep cutting interest. rates this year.
Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down. around 0.1%, recommending a slightly weaker start to trading on. Wall Street later on. A study of U.S. company activity for early. January later on could reveal a decently softer rate of development in. both the production and services sector.
Trump told magnate at the World Economic Forum in. Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday that he wanted to lower worldwide. oil rates, rates of interest and taxes.
In an interview with Fox News on Thursday night, Trump. said his current conversation with President Xi Jinping was. friendly and he thought he could reach a trade handle China.
But we have one very big power over China, which's. tariffs, and they do not want them, and I 'd rather not have to. use it, however it's a significant power over China, he said.
China's stock exchange and currency rallied on the back of. his remarks, leaving the blue chip index up 0.8% and. the yuan reinforced versus the dollar, which fell. 0.5% to 7.2492 in the overseas market.
Oil costs, on the other hand, at first fell after Trump's. remarks, however had actually recuperated some grace by Friday, leaving U.S. crude futures up 0.4% at $74.90 a barrel and Brent crude. up 0.5% at $78.70.
Amelie Derambure, Senior Citizen Multi-Asset Portfolio Supervisor at. Amundi in Paris said Trump's pro-America policies need lower. oil costs.
These types of policies could also benefit other players in. the world, like Europe for example, if we have a lower oil. rate that's going to benefit Europe too-- so at last there. is something that he wants to implement that is not harmful. to Europe, she said.
It reveals that he's willing to negotiate and he wishes to be. maybe a bit more subtle this time.
European stocks showed this greater optimism. The STOXX. 600 increased 0.3% on the day, driven by a burst higher in. luxury goods sellers after solid earnings from Burberry .
BlackRock president Larry Fink informed a panel at the. World Economic Type in Davos on Friday that it might be time to. begin investing cash in Europe again.
There's too much pessimism on Europe, he stated throughout a. panel debate on the global economic outlook. I think it's. most likely time to be investing back into Europe, he said, adding. there was still advance to be made in locations such as capital. markets union.
Studies earlier on Friday revealed euro zone organizations saw a. modest go back to growth at the start of the new year.
On the currency markets, the dollar damaged versus the majority of. significant currencies, leaving the U.S. currency index down 0.4% and. heading for a weekly decline of 1.6%.
The yen was the exception, leaving the dollar up 0.17% on. the day at 156.316 after the U.S. currency managed a session. low of 154.845 following the Bank of Japan's widely-expected. rate walking.
The BOJ raised rate of interest to their greatest given that the. 2008 worldwide monetary crisis, with attention now shifting to any. hints from BOJ Guv Kazuo Ueda in his briefing on the rate. and timing of additional boosts.
Treasury yields, which have pulled back from January's highs. as a few of the fret about a restored spike in inflation has. faded, were constant on Friday.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was little. altered at 4.6459%, listed below recently's 14-month high of 4.809%.
The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are because of. meet next week as policymakers absorb early moves of the Trump. administration.
(source: Reuters)