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Gold to lose weekly value as inflation and rate hikes persist
Gold prices fell on Friday, and were on track to lose a significant amount of money for the week. This was due to concerns about inflation and possible interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve. As of 0252 GMT the spot gold price was down 0.5%, at $4,191.17 an ounce. This was a loss of 3.2% for the week. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery rose 2.4% to $ 4,212.70. Gold fell to a six-month low before closing at $4,219.69 on Thursday, after U.S. president Donald?Trump cancelled planned military strikes against Iran and announced an imminent peace agreement. Edward Meir is an analyst with Marex. He said that the price of oil was "completely driven by geopolitical headlines." The markets will pay attention to any indication that the Fed might raise rates. If they hint in that direction, then I think gold could?break under the $4,000 mark. Gold prices have fallen by about 20% in the last few months, as central banks are worried that inflation could be sparked by rising energy costs, causing them to raise interest rates and increase the cost of owning the metal. U.S. Producer Prices increased more than expected during May, leading the biggest annual increase in three-and-a half years. The Middle East Conflict drove up the price of energy products. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 60% probability of an increase in the U.S. rate for December. Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States and Iran might sign a deal this weekend to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?to shipping. Iran, however, countered by saying that they had not made a final decision about an agreement. The New York SPDR Gold Trust's holdings, the largest gold-backed ETF, dropped about 0.3% on Wednesday to?923.89 tons. Silver spot?fell by 0.4%, to $67.10 an ounce. Platinum?gained by 0.7%, to $1731.40. Both metals are headed for weekly losses. Palladium rose to $1289.33 and has gained 5% so far this week. (Reporting from Pablo Sinha, Bengaluru. Editing by Rashmi aich and Mrigank dhaniwala.)
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Oil nears two-month lows, stocks extend rally on Gulf breakthrough hope
Asian stocks rallied on Friday amid hopes of a Middle East Peace Deal. The dollar and bond yields fell, oil prices dropped to a two-month low, and inflation fears were tempered. The market debut of?Elon's SpaceX is a hotly anticipated event. It has set a new record with the largest-ever initial public offer. The IPO raised a new record of $75 billion. This valued the rocket and spacecraft maker at $1.77 trillion, making Musk the first billionaire in the world. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that a deal for peace could be signed this weekend. This came after Trump had threatened to launch more attacks on Iran. He said that negotiations with Tehran were at the highest level of Iran's leaders and that a broad coalition?of regional powers had approved them. Trump's comments follow repeated episodes of optimism by the president, which have not resulted in a deal. This has kept markets on edge. Ray Attrill is the head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank. If we hear anything from Iran that is positive, it's clear the odds of a peace agreement are going to change dramatically. If confirmed, the deal would be the biggest diplomatic breakthrough to date in ending the war that has lasted three months and caused global energy prices to rise sharply. On Thursday, the European Central Bank raised?interest rates to combat war-induced inflation. Prices fell to a two-month low?after the announcement of an agreement, before reducing?some losses. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1.2% last to $86.69 per barrel on top of 2.6% overnight. Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to $89.40 a barrel after falling nearly 3% over night. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 3.2%. This was led by the 7.4% increase in South Korea's KOSPI. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.3%, while China's blue chip CSI300 gained 1%. Wall Street surged overnight, with all three major indexes posting their largest daily gains since the U.S.-Iran agreement on a temporary "ceasefire" in April. The Nasdaq rose 2.5% on expectations of a successful market debut by Musk's SpaceX. IG estimates that the expected market capitalization of SpaceX by the end of the first day of trading would be just under $2.4 trillion. Tony Sycamore said that the market cap of SpaceX... would be about 35% more than the $1.78 billion valuation set for the IPO. This, in turn, indicates that the SpaceX share price will finish today somewhere between $175/$180. Treasuries kept their gains, as markets trimmed bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year due to hopes of a Gulf peace deal. The price of a rate hike in October is now 36%, down from 51%. The yield on two-year Treasury bills was unchanged at?4.074%, after falling 6 basis points overnight. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields remained at 4.4710% after dropping almost 8 basis points overnight. After overnight losses, the dollar stabilized. After a?0.4% decline in the previous session, it rose by 0.2% to reach 160.20 yen. The yen is still close to the 160 mark, which many traders see as a line drawn in the sand. After overnight increases, the Australian and New Zealand dollar were each down by about 0.3% against the greenback. Friday, precious metals began to decline again. After a 3.5% overnight jump, spot gold fell 0.6%, to $4,189 per ounce. Spot silver, meanwhile, also dropped 0.6%, to $66.93, after a 5.8% increase. Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam, and Kevin Buckland edited the report.
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India curbs bulk fuel buying at retail pumps, caps diesel sales
India has banned commercial consumers from purchasing gasoline and diesel from retail fuel stations, and placed limits on the daily purchase of diesel to prevent local shortages. This is due to disruptions in global supply chains caused by the Middle East war. According to a government directive issued late Thursday, retail fuel station dealers are required to sell no more than 200 litres per vehicle or customer a day. Customers cannot resell diesel. Diesel for commercial customers like trucking firms has been purchased at lower prices at state-run retail outlets than usual. This, in turn, has led to shortages of diesel at retail stations. The government stated that restrictions were needed to ensure a fair?availability? of petrol and diesel throughout the country, stop diversion and hoarding and maintain an uninterrupted fuel supply?at fair price. State fuel retailers lose about 36.5 rupees (0.38 cents) per liter of diesel sold to retail customers. However, industrial buyers can purchase the fuel at market prices. They lose 9 rupees a liter on gasoline sales. India is a net exporter of refined fuels. However, higher fuel sales within the country at subsided rates are affecting the profitability of state-owned fuel retailers such as Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. About 90% of India's fuel stations are controlled by three state-owned?fuel retailers. The government order referred to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and said that geopolitical tensions had strained the global petroleum supply chains, shipping logistics, and availability of petroleum products. This made prudent management and conservation necessary. The order stated that the measures would remain in effect for an initial period up to 90 days, unless they were revoked by a separate order.
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Oil losses continue as Trump cancels planned strike on Iran
After U.S. President Donald Trump cancelled plans to strike Iran, fears of an escalation in 'hostilities' following tit-fortat attacks earlier this week were reduced. Brent futures increased $1.21, or 1.3%, to $89.17 per barrel at 0042 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), however, rose $1.23 or 1.4% to $86.48. Brent crude was 4.2% less than WTI on a weekly basis. Trump, who threatened to hit Iran'very hard,' called off planned strikes Thursday, saying that discussions with Iran have progressed. Fars, Iran's semiofficial news agency, reported that Tehran has not approved the text of any agreement. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said: "This could be a false dawn but the market has reacted quickly and decisively." Iran announced on Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed, stating that any vessel trying to pass through it would face fire. The blockade by Tehran of the Strait of Hormuz, which is normally used to transport a fifth of all global oil and LNG shipments, kept oil prices high. Commercial ships continue to pass through the waterway, according to the U.S. Military. IG's Sycamore stated that even if oil prices correct -downwards "as long the?price?can hold above the support?in?the low $80s the risks are firmly skewed upwards," IG said. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul; Sudarshanvaradhan)
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Oil hits a two-month low as stocks extend their rally on Gulf breakthrough hope
The dollar, bond yields and oil prices all fell, easing inflation fears. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has been making history by launching the largest-ever initial public offer. The IPO raised a new record of $75 billion. This valued the rocket and spacecraft maker at $1.77 trillion, making Musk the first trillionaire in the world. Donald Trump announced on Thursday, just hours after threatening to launch more attacks on Iran, that a deal could be reached as early as this weekend. He said that negotiations with Tehran have reached the highest levels of Iran’s leadership, and were approved by a broad coalition regional powers. Trump's comments follow repeated bouts optimism from the President that failed to produce a deal. This rattled market sentiment. "This does look perhaps a little more tangible than what we've had before," said Ray Attrill. He is the head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank. If we hear anything from the?Iran, that sounds positive (about a peace agreement), it is clear that odds will change quite dramatically. If confirmed, the deal would be the biggest diplomatic breakthrough to date in ending the three-month war that has driven global energy prices higher. To curb war-driven inflation, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for nearly three years. The news of an agreement sent oil prices to a two-month low. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 1.9% to $86.08 per barrel on top of the 2.6% decline overnight. Brent crude futures fell 1.5% to $89.08 a barrel after falling nearly 3% over night. The Nikkei 225 index of Japan rose by 4.3%. Australia's resource-heavy shares gained 1.8%. South Korea's KOSPI soared by 8.3%. Overnight Wall Street surged, with all three major indexes posting their largest daily gains since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement on April 8, when they agreed to a short-term truce. The Nasdaq rose 2.5% on expectations of a successful market debut for Musk's SpaceX. The Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, according to data. The number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits has increased slightly last week. This indicates that the labor market is still resilient. As markets lowered their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, Treasuries gained. The price for an October rate hike has dropped from 51% to 36%. The yields on two-year Treasury bonds were unchanged at 4,066%, after falling 6 basis points overnight. The benchmark 10-year Treasury rates held steady at 4.4631% after dropping almost 8 basis points overnight. Dollar losses were attributed to lower yields. The dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against its major peers, is now at 99.78 after losing 0.4% overnight. The yen climbed 0.1% to 160.19 yen after a 0.4% decline in the previous session. The yen is still below the crucial 160 level, and traders are on alert for any Japanese intervention. The lower dollar has helped precious metals. Gold spot rose by 0.2%, to $4,222 per ounce after a 3.5% overnight jump, and silver spot rose by 0.3%, to $67.52 per ounce following a 5.8% increase. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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Bangladesh tests solar panels on rice crops to provide food and power
Bangladesh tests whether crops can grow on solar panels Land scarcity fuels dual push for food and energy * The economics of agrivoltaic scaling up Tahmid Zami Tahmid Zami A nation of about?175 millions is dependent on imports to meet 95% of their?energy requirements. This dependence has been made worse by the rising costs due to the war in the Middle East. It is also looking at ways to diversify the energy supply, including more renewable energy. Solar energy is the largest source of renewable power in Bangladesh. However, it only represents 4.5% of total generation capacity. Solar panels can be installed either on roofs or on the ground. Roof space is limited, and ground systems take land that could otherwise be used for housing or farming. Sohanur Rahman is the executive coordinator for YouthNet Global. A climate justice campaign group. Researchers are looking into the new technology of "agrivoltaics", where crops and livestock share space with solar panels. This year, the Bangladeshi development organization BRAC and the research organisation Institute of Governance and Development launched a project to install solar panels over farmland at Manikganj. The town is located about 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the capital Dhaka. The H&M Foundation is a non profit linked to the Swedish clothing company H&M. RICE NEEDS THE SUN, BUT SHADE IS GOOD FOR WORKERS Bangladesh has little land that is not agricultural for solar power. Solar parks were previously proposed but scrapped because of concerns about land loss and livelihoods. Solar panels at Manikganj are more than two metres above ground level, which allows varying amounts to sunlight to reach the crops below. Researchers will measure rainfall, wind speeds and other microclimate information and compare yields with nearby controls plots in order to determine which panel height, spacing, and crop combinations balance food production and?generation. For farm workers in Bangladesh, the average wage is $7 per day. This includes rice, coriander and other crops such as bottle gourds, onions, pumpkins, and bottle gourds. Biswas, a farm worker, said that the shaded area helps to preserve soil moisture and also makes it more comfortable for the workers on hot summer days. The Wave Foundation and the German Development Agency GIZ, which works on poverty and climate issues in Bangladesh and Germany, have conducted agrivoltaic trials in Manikganj. In Chuadanga, agrivoltaic tests have also tested the rearing of goats and chickens. Rohini Kamal, assistant professor at BIGD, explained that farmers in Bangladesh prefer to grow rice, the main staple of the country, and this requires lots of sunlight. The ongoing project focuses on finding ways to grow rice using solar panels. He said that low-lying areas like Manikganj, which are often submerged by the monsoons, need rice varieties that can withstand flooding. The solar mounting structures must also be strong enough to withstand storms. Will the sums add up? The viability of agrivoltaics systems is dependent on several variables. A pilot study conducted in Chuadanga, 2024, estimated that the revenue generated by both crops and electricity would reduce the payback time for the panels from five to six years to three to four years under favorable conditions. Mehedi Bappy, agronomist and project manager at the Manikganj site, explained that lower, closely-spaced panels are less expensive to build but produce more shade. Higher, more widely-spaced structures are more expensive but are better for sun-loving plants like rice. Bappy says that the rice yield looks good so far, but more data is needed from other crop cycles. The project pays a daily wage to the workers, and the electricity produced is used to irrigate nearby farmland. Kamal explained that once the project is connected to the national grid it will be possible to export the excess electricity generated. However, existing rules must change in order for farmers and operators to receive direct payment for the power produced by solar panels on their land. Dipal Chandra Barua is the president of Bright Green Energy Foundation in Bangladesh, an NGO that installs renewable energy systems at small scales for rural communities. Researchers are still waiting to see if the solar panels placed above the crops will deliver on their promise.
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Vale's largest shareholder calls for a meeting to discuss the removal of its chairman
Brazil's Vale, one of the largest iron ore producers in the world, announced on Thursday that its largest shareholder, the pension fund Previ had requested a meeting of shareholders to vote "on the removal" of Chairman Daniel Andre Stieler. Previ, which manages 'pension funds for Banco do Brasil employees, has proposed appointing Jose Mauricio Coelho as Vale board chairman and backing the current board member Manuel Oliveira, according to a filing by the miner. Vale has stated that?Previ has argued Oliveira's contribution will be to "the strengthening governance practices, improvement of strategic management, and alignment with the interest of shareholders and stakeholders." The mining company has not released the document that it received from Previ. The pension fund didn't immediately reply to a comment request sent outside of business hours. Vale said its board is evaluating the steps needed to convene the meeting of shareholders. According to regulatory documents, Previ holds a stake of about 7% in Vale. Marcio Antonio Chimento was named CEO of the fund a month ago after Joao Louiz Fukunaga quit. Chiumento was appointed to Vale's Board of Directors earlier this year. (Reporting and editing by Kylie Madry, Daina Beth Solon and Andre Romani)
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ROI-Red-hot SpaceX IPO may burn retail buyers: McGeever
The media frenzy around Elon Musk's SpaceX's public listing is soaring. This poses a serious threat to investors, especially retail investors. In a large initial public offer, "mom-and-pop" investors receive no more than 10% of the shares, while the majority of the newly listed'shares' are held by?large institutions. This is a good way to protect small investors, as a new launch could fail in the first few days of trading or become volatile in the following weeks and months. The biggest institutions have the ability to handle market volatility and are able to tolerate losses with a high threshold. Retail investors cannot expect to experience the same level of risk. SpaceX's IPO is not typical, and it's not just the $1.75 trillion valuation. Retail investors will receive around 30% of $75 billion worth of shares. This leaves people more vulnerable to price volatility and volatility than normal. RED FLAGS There has never been a better time for individuals to participate in a major IPO. Fidelity Investments, a brokerage firm, recently took an unusual step by lowering the eligibility requirement to participate in an IPO. The account balance was reduced from $500,000 down to only $2,000. Robinhood Markets clients, SoFi customers, and E*Trade customers are not required to have any money in their account, while Charles Schwab requires a minimum of $100,000. Small investors could be lured in. Vanda Research, a retail flows tracker, notes that the usual increase in equity purchases after U.S. federal tax returns has been tepid. This could be because some investors want to raise?liquidity before the SpaceX IPO. Retail investors should be wary of large tech IPOs. Sam Grelck is an equity strategy analyst with Truist Advisory services. He has tracked 30 tech-related IPOs in the last 15 years. His findings indicate that a significant drawdown during SpaceX's initial year of trading seems highly probable. Within 12 months after the first day of trading, shares in each of these 30 companies experienced a double-digit drop. Some of the drawdowns were as high as 90% and averaged 55%. Investors should be aware of the high volatility and potential for large drawdowns in new listings, he says. His findings show, however, that even if the performance is uneven, returns are positive for the first three month following the IPO. The returns over the 6- and 12-month time horizons are usually negative. The ride is always bumpy. BOLD ASSUMSIONS Will SpaceX's ride be smoother? The numbers that support the IPO seem to suggest otherwise. Goldman Sachs, one of the underwriters for the IPO, estimates that by 2030, total revenue will grow from $18.7bn to $474bn, and its AI segment's revenue will increase 100 times to $322bn from $3.2bn. Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise's chief market strategist, says that this is a bold assumption. Morgan Stanley analysts, who are also underwriters, have forecast that total revenue will reach $3.4 trillion in 2040. SpaceX waived the requirement that employees wait for six months to sell their shares. Analysts warn that early investors and employees could monetize positions by selling shares to unsuspecting investors soon after the IPO. A rush of sales from insiders in a company could be met by a wall?of individual buying. It?might not, which means that many retail investors may be left with big losses during a downturn while more sophisticated shareholders leave early. At the top? Many analysts warn that, on a larger scale, the hype surrounding the SpaceX initial public offering is a clear sign that "the market has reached its peak". Of course, not everyone is in agreement. Noah Weisberger is the chief U.S. Equity Strategist at BCA Research. He notes that only 20% of mega-IPOs occur during market peaks. The previous mega-IPO wave is nothing compared to what's coming up in the next few months. SpaceX will be launching a monster IPO, followed by AI darlings OpenAI & Anthropic whose offerings are expected to achieve $1?trillion in valuations. Retail interest in other mega public listings is sure to skyrocket if SpaceX proves a success. If it fails, those who invested their?savings in the largest IPO ever will be searching for safety. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Global equities falter with financial information in focus; oil rebounds
MSCI's international equities index edged down on Thursday as financiers assessed weak jobs information and constant services activity while oil prices bounced back due to a possible delay to output boosts and a decrease in U.S. stocks.
U.S. Treasury yields fell and rate of interest sensitive two-year yields reached a 15-month low after ADP's personal sector August jobs data showed fewer brand-new jobs than prepared for.
The data revealed U.S. private companies worked with the least workers in 3-1/2 years in August while July data was revised lower, possibly meaning a sharp labor market slowdown.
Investors are still awaiting Friday's non-farm payroll report, which is watched carefully as the greatest sign for how much the U.S. Federal Reserve might cut rates this month.
While bets have actually increased to around 40% from 34% a week back that the Fed might kick-off its long-awaited easing cycle with a. half portion point move this month, traders still see a. roughly 59% possibility that the cut will simply be a quarter of a. percentage point according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
However Thomas Simons, senior U.S. financial expert at Jefferies in New. York said the ADP report revealed a still strong labor market and. that the market is pricing in method too much easing from the Fed,. whether that be in terms of speed or total number of cuts.
When you look at slowing payroll development, slowing task. openings, slowing claims and consistent wage growth, that means that. the labor market has actually settled into a better balance that is a. excellent location for the majority of workers, he stated.
Meanwhile, U.S.
services sector activity
was steady in August with the Institute for Supply. Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing acquiring supervisors (PMI). index at 51.5 last month compared to 51.4 in July.
While the services information appeared to encourage traders. earlier in the U.S. trading session, stock indexes lost steam as. investors appeared to turn their focus to Friday's information.
On
Wall Street
, at 11:14 a.m. the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell. 278.91 points, or 0.67%, to 40,696.06, the S&P 500 lost. 19.37 points, or 0.35%, to 5,500.70 and the Nasdaq Composite. gotten 39.58 points, or 0.24%, to 17,123.87.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe. fell 2.31 points, or 0.28%, to 812.74 while Europe's STOXX 600. index fell 0.38%.
In currencies, the dollar index, which measures. the greenback versus a basket of currencies including the yen. and the euro, gained 0.03% to 101.29.
The euro was up 0.02% at $1.1084 while against. the Japanese yen, the dollar reinforced 0.11% to. 143.89.
In Treasuries, the yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes. fell 0.9 basis indicate 3.759%, from 3.768% late on. Wednesday, while the 2-year note yield, which. normally relocates step with rates of interest expectations, fell. 0.2 basis indicate 3.7683%.
A carefully watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. measuring the space between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury. notes, seen as an indicator of economic. expectations, was at a negative 1.3 basis points.
In energy markets, oil rose from multi-month lows, due to a. possible hold-up to output increases by OPEC+ manufacturers and a. decrease in U.S. inventories, though gains were capped by. persistent need issues.
U.S. crude gained 1.53% to $70.26 a barrel and. Brent increased to $73.71 per barrel, up 1.39% on the day.
Gold costs touched their greatest levels since Aug 30 after. the information showed the labor market losing steam.
Area gold added 0.52% to $2,507.28 an ounce. U.S. gold futures acquired 0.57% to $2,507.60 an ounce.
(source: Reuters)