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US judge confirms Red Tree as the starting bid for Citgo parent's auction
According to a court document, a U.S. Federal judge confirmed on Monday that a $3.7billion offer made by Red Tree Investments, an affiliate of Contrarian Funds to pay bondholders and creditors in an auction for shares of the parent company of Venezuelan-owned refiner Citgo Petroleum was the starting bid. The offer, which had been recommended by a court officer overseeing the auction, unleashed a battle among 16 creditors seeking to cash proceeds from the auction, with some supporting the bid because it includes a payment agreement with holders of a bond issued by Citgo's ultimate parent, Caracas-headquartered PDVSA, and others saying it was too low. A consortium led miner Gold Reserve had submitted a $7.1 Billion proposal. Rival bid Other creditors and lawyers representing Venezuela filed objections against Red Tree's bid. These were overruled U.S. district judge Leonard Stark. Stark's decision stated that "Red Tree’s bid represents the best balance between the evaluation criteria which can be summarized as the price and the certainty of closing", adding that this offer should encourage competitiveness. The judge asked Robert Pincus, the court officer, to suggest a time period to top off Red Tree’s offer. This is expected to result in a winning bid for the auction whose final hearing will be held in July. Pincus' final bid recommendation was to be "more focused on price, and less on certainty", as instructed by the Judge. A previous round of bidding last year saw most creditors reject a $7.3billion offer from an affiliate hedge fund Elliott Investment Management because it included conditions. Red Tree's selection as the stalking horse for this round is expected to encourage other bidders to offer up to $3 billion in compensation to holders of PDVSA 2020 bonds that were collateralized by Citgo equity. Citgo is valued between $11 billion to $13 billion. The final bids in the auction are expected to be below $8 billion. The more money paid to bondholders will leave less to pay other creditors. These include foreign oil companies, mining companies, and industrial conglomerates, whose Venezuelan assets have been expropriated.
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ADM closes soybean processing plant at Kershaw, South Carolina
Grains merchant Archer-Daniels-Midland will permanently close its soybean processing plant in Kershaw, South Carolina, later this spring as part of a cost-cutting and consolidation push announced earlier this year, the company confirmed to on Monday. ADM has cut jobs and downsized some operations ever since February, when it announced that it would be cutting costs by $500 to $700 millions over three to five year. Dane Lisser, ADM's spokesperson, said: "After exploring many alternatives, we have determined that our Kershaw crushing plant does not align with our future operating needs." Still reeling from a scandal that sent the stock price of the company plummeting last year, the company is now facing tough headwinds due to rising trade tensions with key markets, including China, which is a major soybean importer. According to sources in the industry, Kershaw will be closing as the first U.S. soya processing plant after a multi-year expansion of industry-wide facilities amid an escalating demand for vegetable oil from biofuels manufacturers. The biofuel sector, however, has recently slowed down production because of the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy on biofuels and the possibility of a worsening trading war. According to industry sources, the Kershaw plant is one of the smaller soy processing plants operated by ADM. It has the capacity to crush up to 50,000 bushels per day. ADM has said that it will assist Kershaw employees in finding new jobs, and offer financial severance to those who choose to leave the company. However, the number of affected workers was not disclosed. According to South Carolina Department of Commerce statistics, the Kershaw plant employed 11 to 50 workers.
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Prosecutors say that a Russian attack killed one person in Kharkiv, Ukraine.
According to local prosecutors, Russian forces launched an attack on Ukraine's Kharkiv region in the northeast, Monday. One person was killed in a village near the border. According to a report posted on Telegram, which was released after a ceasefire of 30 hours announced by Moscow for Easter had expired, a Russian drone killed a man riding a scooter in Ivashki. The statement added that an artillery attack by the Russians hit a private home area in Kupiansk. This is a place where Russian military activity has increased in recent months. Kupiansk, which was captured by Ukrainian forces later in that year in a massive counter-offensive after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, was initially occupied by Russian troops. At least once, Russian forces entered the city briefly. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Oleksandr Kozoukhar, Ron Popeski)
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US Antimony restarts Mexico Smelter Plant after Over a Year
United States Antimony Corp announced on Monday that it had restarted operations in its Madero plant in Mexico. This comes more than a year since the miner of critical minerals stopped operating in Latin America. Why it's important China has banned the export of critical minerals such as gallium, antimony and germanium to the United States. This is part of a escalating tech and trade war between two major economies. China is expected to produce almost half the world's supply of antimony by 2023. Prices of the mineral are soaring as a result of China's heavy export restrictions. This has disrupted global supply chains. U.S. president Donald Trump also pushed to increase domestic production of important minerals, such as antimony to counter China's near-total control in the sector. Minerals are widely used to make ammunition, infrared weapons, night-vision goggles and nuclear weapons, as well batteries and photovoltaic devices. CONTEXT United States Antimony announced in March of last year that it would cease all operations in Latin America, and sell its Mexican subsidiary. This decision was taken after a review of financial performance, negative cash flow of the unit and low prices of antimony. What's Next? The company announced that it had begun processing the antimony ore purchased from international sources in the Madero Smelter. Next week, the second and third shipments will also arrive at the facility. U.S. Antimony stated that it plans to produce approximately 200 tons of antimony each month at the Madero Smelter by the end of 2025. (Reporting and editing by Sahal Muhammad in Bengaluru, Vallari Srivastava from Bengaluru)
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The Russian Economy Ministry has cut its Brent price forecast for 2025 by almost 17%
According to documents obtained by, the Russian economy ministry's forecast for the average Brent crude price in 2025 has been cut by 17% compared to what they thought it would be in September. Interfax reported that in the ministry's baseline scenario for economic forecasts of 2025, the ministry assumes the average price of Brent to be $68 per barrel, down from $81.7 per barrel in its September predictions. The Ministry of Finance estimates that the price for Urals - Russia's main blend - is $56 per barrel - compared to the $69.7 barrel price on which Russia has based their budget 2025 - and lower than the $60 "cut-off" price, which determines the amount of money sent to the National Wealth Fund Reserve (NWF) budget reserve. In the baseline scenario, we assume at some point that the export price drops below the cutoff, but then goes up. In this scenario, we do not deplete our NWF," a ministry representative told Interfax. Oil and gas revenues account for a third (or more) of the budget. The representative said that "from a budgetary standpoint, these conditions are difficult, but normal." The Russian rainy day NWF is now the main source for financing Russia's persistent budget deficit. The liquid assets of the fund have fallen by two-thirds, from $112.7 to $39 billion. According to the new estimates, the rouble value of Russian oil has decreased by 21.5% to 5,281 Roubles per barrel compared to the previous forecast. In April, the Russian central bank had warned that due to a lower global demand, oil prices may be lower for several years than expected. Urals prices dropped to their lowest level since 2023 early April, trading at around $53 a barrel. They traded below $60 per barrel last week. The first quarter of this year saw Russia's oil revenues fall by 10% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the average price for Urals in roubles since April began was 31% lower than the planned amount, forcing the government to sell foreign currency for first time. The ministry said that it did not expect a recession to occur due to the trade wars of U.S. president Donald Trump and believes global growth will be slightly higher than 2% this year. Interfax quoted the representative of the ministry as saying: "The world's still bigger than the United States. So some flows will be directed." The Ministry maintained its forecast of 2.5% for the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Russia and raised its inflation forecast from 4.5% to 7.6%. The rouble is also expected to be stronger this year than it was previously forecasted, with an average of 94.3% of the dollar per rouble, compared to an earlier prediction of 96.5 roubles. (Written by Lidia Kelley in Melbourne and Gleb Brnski in Moscow, edited by Leslie Adler & Darlie Butler)
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Russia's Nornickel maintains 2025 nickel production forecast
Nornickel, a Russian company that is one of the largest nickel producers in the world and also the biggest palladium producer, maintained Monday its nickel production forecast for 2025 as 204,000-211,000 tons. The company reported that it produced 42,000 tonnes of nickel in 2025's first quarter, down 1.1% from the previous year. Palladium production fell 0.6%, to 741,00 ounces. The production of platinum increased by 0.6%, to 180,000 ounces. The company's Senior Vice-President Alexander Popov stated that the modest drop in nickel production was due to short-term scheduled repairs and maintenance. This was done to ensure a steady operation of its main technological units. Nornickel said that the decrease in nickel production is due to maintenance work at its various plants. Nornickel faces pressure in the domestic market due to the 40% rise of the rouble against the U.S. Dollar, which reduces revenues, and high interest rates which impact investment plans. The company faces falling or stagnating metal prices internationally due to lower demand in the wake of market turmoil triggered by U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs. Nornickel may not be directly subject to Western sanctions but the measures have led some Western producers to refrain from buying Russian metal. They also complicate payments and restrict access to Western equipment. BCS analysts wrote in a report that they believe the threat of a global slowdown due to tariff wars would negatively impact the metals portfolio of the company. (Reporting and writing by Anastasia Lyrchikova; editing by Kirsten Doovan and Ros Russel)
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India imposes temporary tariffs of 12% on certain steel imports
A government notification announced that India had imposed a temporary tariff of 12%, known locally as a "safeguard duty", on certain steel products in order to curb unbridled imports. India, the second largest producer of crude iron and steel in the world, announced that the tariffs will be effective for 200 days starting Monday. The Ministry of Finance stated that "the safeguard duty imposed by this notification will be in effect for a period of 200 days (unless earlier revoked or modified) after the publication of the notification." India's steel tax increase is the first major trade policy decision since U.S. president Donald Trump imposed duties on a number of countries in April. New Delhi's tariffs primarily target China, the second largest steel exporter to India in 2024/25 behind South Korea. According to government data, India became a net steel importer for the second year in a row during the fiscal year 2024/25. Shipments reached a record high of 9 million metric tonnes, a figure not seen since the early 1990s. Steel Authority of India, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, and JSW Steel, New Delhi's largest steelmaking body, have raised concerns about imports. Reporting by Neha Misra and Surbhi Arora; Editing and Toby Chopra and Alison Williams
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In March, India's infrastructure production rose 3.8% year-on-year.
Government data released on Monday showed that India's infrastructure production grew by 3.8% in March, mainly due to strong steel and cement output. The infrastructure output (which tracks eight different sectors and accounts for 40% of industrial production in the country) grew by a revised 3,4% in February compared to an initial estimate of 2,9%. Cement production increased 11.6% in march, compared with a revised 10.8% rise in February. Steel production rose 7.1%, against a revised advance of 6.9% a month before. Fertilizer output grew by 8.8%, compared to 10.2% the month before. Coal production increased 1.6% compared to 1.7% in February. The electricity generation in March was 6.2% higher than the revised 3.6% growth in the previous month. Refined oil products were up 0.2% compared to 0.8% the month prior. In March, crude oil production fell 1.9% compared to a 5.2% decline in February. Natural gas production also declined 12.7% compared to a 6% decrease in February. The infrastructure output increased by 4.4% during the fiscal years 2024-25.
QUOTES-OPEC+ extends oil output cuts into 2025
OPEC+ settled on Sunday to extend a lot of of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025 as the group seeks to fortify the market amid lukewarm demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival U.S. production.
Here is what market analysts have actually said about the announcement:
DAAN STRUYVEN, HEAD OF OIL RESEARCH AT GOLDMAN SACHS
While OPEC+ extended all 3 layers of production cuts, we see the conference as bearish because 8 OPEC+ countries currently signalled to gradually phase out the 2.2 mb/d of extra voluntary cuts over 2024Q4-2025Q3, in spite of recent benefit surprises to inventories.
The interaction of a progressive loosen up shows a strong desire to revive production of several members offered high extra capacity.
As a result of the bearish meeting, and provided recent upside surprises to stocks relative to our expectations, we now see the dangers to our $75-90 variety for Brent as skewed to the drawback.
AMARPREET SINGH, ENERGY ANALYST AT BARCLAYS
The OPEC+ meeting outcome was mildly negative relative to our standard balances see, as the rollover of extra voluntary adjustments through completion of Q3 24 and a slower than anticipated stage out of these adjustments was more than offset by the extent of the stage out and the revision in UAE's target for next year.
The rollover of the additional voluntary cuts for another quarter and associated commentary from crucial ministers recommends that it would not be surprising to see the group kick the can even more down the road if market conditions do not prefer a. steady stage out of production cuts beginning Q4 24.
KIM FUSTIER, HEAD OF EUROPEAN OIL AND GAS RESEARCH AT HSBC
This result was widely expected by the market.
How OPEC+ relaxes its several, complicated set of cuts--. amounting to 5.8 mbd in aggregate-- remains among the most significant. concerns for the oil market. The contract offers some. clarity for the next 19 months however questions remain, consisting of. how the 3.66 mbd of collective and first-phase voluntary cuts. will be unwound beyond end-2025.
OMAR NOKTA, EXPERT AT JEFFERIES
We see this as a modest favorable as we had actually not anticipated a. return of these barrels up until later in 2025.
Previously this year, when Brent prices reached $90/bbl, there. had actually been a growing expectation that these voluntary cuts would. start to loosen up at some point in 2024, but softer rates because. had actually negated that view. Thus the steady relax in October is a. favorable surprise. Tankers continue to enjoy strong revenues. despite OPEC+ carrying out cuts since early 2023. Provided further. non-OPEC supply is coming in 2025, in line with demand development. expectations, a full loosen up of the OPEC+ voluntary cuts may be a. ways away.
CHRISTYAN F MALEK, GLOBAL HEAD OF ENERGY METHOD AND HEAD. OF EMEA OIL & & GAS EQUITY RESEARCH STUDY AT JPMORGAN
Increased production from 3Q recommends the alliance is. comfortable with present inventory levels and need to provide the. market a clearer view on OPEC's dominating self-confidence. in supply/demand fundamentals.
Simply put, if these volume adds are stuck to, that. must suggest a healthy outlook for elections and is therefore. eventually bullish need, despite the fact that, in the near term we may. see some down pressure on oil rates. Plainly the difficulty. for the group will be to hold or cut down if need does not. show as robust and our company believe their strong cohesion should. enable higher flexibly, if needed.
UBS
The result might be viewed as slightly bearish for oil for. the very near-term however the choices taken likewise decrease downside. risk in the medium-term in our view.
One takeaway from this weekend's choice is that the group. managed to reach a broad agreement in a relatively brief period of. time, unlike in some other previous conferences, showing cohesion. What might have been a contentious 2H24, provided discussions about. 2025 production, now brings less threat in our view and the threat. of a breakdown of the OPEC+ contract and disorderly OPEC+. production return a( n even) lower likelihood event.
EXPENSE WEATHERBURN, SENIOR ENVIRONMENT AND COMMODITIES FINANCIAL EXPERT. AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS
The key choice is that around 2.2 m bpd of voluntary cuts. will be rolled over till the end of September. We expect this,. integrated with a pick-up in oil demand over the Northern. Hemisphere summer season, to press the oil market into a deficit over Q3. which could send out oil prices towards $90 per barrel.
HELIMA CROFT, HEAD OF GLOBAL PRODUCT STRATEGY AND MENA. RESEARCH STUDY AT RBC CAPITAL MARKETS
While any signal to include back barrels will be seized on by. market bears, we believe it is very important that the taper timeline. execution will be information dependent and subject to review at. summer season's end.
NORBERT RÜCKER, HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND NEXT GENERATION. RESEARCH STUDY AT JULIUS BAER
This result might be rather bearish for the oil market, as. production boosts are now officially heralded. However, the. decision eventually just acknowledges the apparent. The oil. market remained well balanced over the past months despite the. petro countries' enormous supply curtailments. Need development was. balanced out by supply growth originating from elsewhere, largely the. Americas. Losing market share is not in the interest of the. petro-nations.
(source: Reuters)