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QUOTES-OPEC+ extends oil output cuts into 2025

OPEC+ settled on Sunday to extend a lot of of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025 as the group seeks to fortify the market amid lukewarm demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival U.S. production.

Here is what market analysts have actually said about the announcement:

DAAN STRUYVEN, HEAD OF OIL RESEARCH AT GOLDMAN SACHS

While OPEC+ extended all 3 layers of production cuts, we see the conference as bearish because 8 OPEC+ countries currently signalled to gradually phase out the 2.2 mb/d of extra voluntary cuts over 2024Q4-2025Q3, in spite of recent benefit surprises to inventories.

The interaction of a progressive loosen up shows a strong desire to revive production of several members offered high extra capacity.

As a result of the bearish meeting, and provided recent upside surprises to stocks relative to our expectations, we now see the dangers to our $75-90 variety for Brent as skewed to the drawback.

AMARPREET SINGH, ENERGY ANALYST AT BARCLAYS

The OPEC+ meeting outcome was mildly negative relative to our standard balances see, as the rollover of extra voluntary adjustments through completion of Q3 24 and a slower than anticipated stage out of these adjustments was more than offset by the extent of the stage out and the revision in UAE's target for next year.

The rollover of the additional voluntary cuts for another quarter and associated commentary from crucial ministers recommends that it would not be surprising to see the group kick the can even more down the road if market conditions do not prefer a. steady stage out of production cuts beginning Q4 24.

KIM FUSTIER, HEAD OF EUROPEAN OIL AND GAS RESEARCH AT HSBC

This result was widely expected by the market.

How OPEC+ relaxes its several, complicated set of cuts--. amounting to 5.8 mbd in aggregate-- remains among the most significant. concerns for the oil market. The contract offers some. clarity for the next 19 months however questions remain, consisting of. how the 3.66 mbd of collective and first-phase voluntary cuts. will be unwound beyond end-2025.

OMAR NOKTA, EXPERT AT JEFFERIES

We see this as a modest favorable as we had actually not anticipated a. return of these barrels up until later in 2025.

Previously this year, when Brent prices reached $90/bbl, there. had actually been a growing expectation that these voluntary cuts would. start to loosen up at some point in 2024, but softer rates because. had actually negated that view. Thus the steady relax in October is a. favorable surprise. Tankers continue to enjoy strong revenues. despite OPEC+ carrying out cuts since early 2023. Provided further. non-OPEC supply is coming in 2025, in line with demand development. expectations, a full loosen up of the OPEC+ voluntary cuts may be a. ways away.

CHRISTYAN F MALEK, GLOBAL HEAD OF ENERGY METHOD AND HEAD. OF EMEA OIL & & GAS EQUITY RESEARCH STUDY AT JPMORGAN

Increased production from 3Q recommends the alliance is. comfortable with present inventory levels and need to provide the. market a clearer view on OPEC's dominating self-confidence. in supply/demand fundamentals.

Simply put, if these volume adds are stuck to, that. must suggest a healthy outlook for elections and is therefore. eventually bullish need, despite the fact that, in the near term we may. see some down pressure on oil rates. Plainly the difficulty. for the group will be to hold or cut down if need does not. show as robust and our company believe their strong cohesion should. enable higher flexibly, if needed.

UBS

The result might be viewed as slightly bearish for oil for. the very near-term however the choices taken likewise decrease downside. risk in the medium-term in our view.

One takeaway from this weekend's choice is that the group. managed to reach a broad agreement in a relatively brief period of. time, unlike in some other previous conferences, showing cohesion. What might have been a contentious 2H24, provided discussions about. 2025 production, now brings less threat in our view and the threat. of a breakdown of the OPEC+ contract and disorderly OPEC+. production return a( n even) lower likelihood event.

EXPENSE WEATHERBURN, SENIOR ENVIRONMENT AND COMMODITIES FINANCIAL EXPERT. AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS

The key choice is that around 2.2 m bpd of voluntary cuts. will be rolled over till the end of September. We expect this,. integrated with a pick-up in oil demand over the Northern. Hemisphere summer season, to press the oil market into a deficit over Q3. which could send out oil prices towards $90 per barrel.

HELIMA CROFT, HEAD OF GLOBAL PRODUCT STRATEGY AND MENA. RESEARCH STUDY AT RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

While any signal to include back barrels will be seized on by. market bears, we believe it is very important that the taper timeline. execution will be information dependent and subject to review at. summer season's end.

NORBERT RÜCKER, HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND NEXT GENERATION. RESEARCH STUDY AT JULIUS BAER

This result might be rather bearish for the oil market, as. production boosts are now officially heralded. However, the. decision eventually just acknowledges the apparent. The oil. market remained well balanced over the past months despite the. petro countries' enormous supply curtailments. Need development was. balanced out by supply growth originating from elsewhere, largely the. Americas. Losing market share is not in the interest of the. petro-nations.

(source: Reuters)