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Stocks reach new record highs on optimism about trade and dollar weakness
The dollar fell and is on course for its worst half-year performance since more than 50 years. Canada has halted the digital services tax that targeted U.S. tech firms, just hours before its scheduled implementation date. This was done to help advance stagnant trade negotiations with Washington. Mark Carney, Canadian Prime Minister and Donald Trump, U.S. president will resume negotiations to reach a trade agreement by July 21. This is an extension of Trump's July 9 deadline. Officials have said that most deals can be completed by Labor Day, September 1, although the deadline for other countries is still July 9. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, said on Monday that countries should be aware that the U.S. may return to the tariffs that were in place when Trump announced a range of steep duties around the world. He also stated that any decision to extend negotiations will be made by Trump. Wall Street saw modest gains on the back of Friday's record-breaking closing. Financial names led the way, with consumer discretionary the least performing among the 11 major S&P sector. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities. He said: "There's a hope that there will eventually be an accordance with U.S. traders and that slow economic activity will keep inflation in check." The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 146.03, or 0.34 percent, to 43.967.14, while the S&P 500 rose by 10.13, or 0.17 percent, to 6,183.75, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 15.44, or 0.09 percent, to 20,291.55. Investors are likely to be watching a number of labor market reports during the holiday-shortened week. The government payrolls report on Thursday will be the highlight. The report will be released a day earlier, and the U.S. Stock Market will close on Friday because of the Independence Day holiday. Some Fed officials have stated, including Jerome Powell, that the strength of labor markets gives the central banks the flexibility to delay cutting rates until they have a better understanding of how Trump's tariffs may impact inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic stated Monday that the economy is yet to feel the full impact of Trump’s tariffs. He said he still expects the Fed to make a rate cut this year. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank president Austan Goolsbee, however, said there was no evidence of stagflation. However, both unemployment and inflation could worsen simultaneously. Investors also monitored the progress of the massive U.S. spending and tax-cutting bill that is slowly making its journey through the Senate. Republicans will attempt to pass it on Monday. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will add $3.3 trillion in debt to the United States over the next decade, testing the foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries. MSCI's index of global stocks rose 1.49 points or 0.16% to 916.25, and was on course for a third consecutive session of gains, after reaching an intraday high of 9167.05. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed down by 0.42% but still managed to secure its second consecutive quarterly gain despite a drop of more than 1%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) fell 0.32% at 96.88. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.47% to $1.1774. The dollar has been struggling all year due to expectations that the Fed will be more aggressive about cutting interest rates in the coming year after Powell is replaced. The dollar has dropped 10.5% in the first half of the year, the biggest fall since 1973 when the U.S. switched to a freely-floating currency. The dollar fell 0.34% against the Japanese yen to 144.16, while the pound rose 0.01% to 1.3716. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 5.3 basis points to 4.2%. U.S. crude dropped 0.63%, to $65.11 per barrel. Brent was down to $67.63 a barrel on the same day.
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Football-FIFPRO considers longer halftimes and more cooling breaks in extreme heat
FIFPRO, the global players' union, is investigating whether increasing halftime from 20 minutes to 20 minutes or introducing more cooling breaks can better protect players against extreme heat. Nine of the sixteen host cities of the 2026 World Cup are at "extreme" risk for heat-related illnesses. Atlanta, Boston Dallas, Guadalajara Houston, Kansas City Miami Monterrey, Philadelphia, and other cities are likely to experience dangerously high temperatures and humidity. This could pose a threat to player safety and lead some to call for cooling aids and schedule changes. FIFPRO's assessments of heat risk are based upon wet bulb globe temperatures (WBGT), which is a measurement that combines temperature, humidity and solar radiation with wind speed in order to estimate the environmental conditions that affect a person's body's ability for cooling itself. According to FIFPRO guidelines a WBGT above 28 degrees Celsius indicates that matches should be postponed, or rescheduled in order to protect the health of players. FIFA's guidelines, which set the extreme-risk threshold at 32 degrees Celsius, are higher. However, even with this standard, six out of nine cities will still exceed the safe limit. Major League Soccer has a threshold temperature of 29 degrees Celsius. Vincent Gouttebarge is the Medical Director of FIFPRO. He said, "Cooling Breaks at 30th Minute and 75th Minute are very traditional but it doesn't make any sense from a physiologic point of view." Even if you consume more than 200 ml of fluid you cannot drink it all. I'd like to see a project that looks at the effectiveness of more frequent, but shorter, cooling breaks. Every 15 minutes rather than one every half. LONGER HALFTIMES Gouttebarge questioned if the 15-minute interval at halftime is enough when matches are played under extreme heat. He said that a 15-minute halftime might not be sufficient to lower the core temperature. It could be 20 minutes of halftime, which would be important. This has been proven in the lab and FIFPRO will test it in Portugal with the national union on August. This month's Club World Cup made it clear that there is a need for stronger heat protocols. Two matches, Benfica-Bayern Munich and Chelsea-Esperance both exceeded the WBGT threshold FIFPRO deems unsafe. Gouttebarge stated that "according to our opinion, these games should have either been postponed or rescheduled later in the day." FIFPRO officials acknowledge that FIFA responded in a constructive manner during the tournament, lowering the thresholds for cooling breaks that are mandatory and improving pitch side hydration. However, they stress that proactive planning is essential. Alex Phillips is the FIFPRO General Secratary. He said that FIFA was very responsive to their needs once the tournament started. The team has adapted their approach to heat during matches in response to FIFPRO's advice, and this is a credit to them. It would have been best if this had happened in advance. However, they are better off for having adapted. FIFPRO has warned that the risks highlighted during the Club World Cup could be a preview for what players may face at the expanded World Cup in 2026. Alexander Bielefeld is the Director of FIFPRO's Policy & Strategic Relationships. He added, "We need to find a better balance between the commercial interests of football clubs and their players' health and safety." This was in reference to earlier kickoff times for European television audiences. (Reporting and editing by Ken Ferris; Reporting by Julien Pretot)
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US Judge orders Argentina to transfer YPF Shares to satisfy $16.1 Billion judgment
A U.S. court judge ordered Argentina on Monday to give up 51% of its stake in the oil and gas company YPF to satisfy a $16.1-billion judgment against it. U.S. District Court Judge Loretta Preska, in Manhattan, said Argentina had to transfer its YPF share within 14 days into a BNY Mellon account and instruct this bank to transfer those shares to the plaintiffs within one business day. Argentina appealed Preska's decision of September 2023 to award $16.1 billion to Petersen Energia Inversora, Eton Park Capital Management and litigation funder Burford Capital. Preska's ruling came the same day Argentina requested that the High Court of London block the enforcement of the judgment. The case arose after Argentina seizes the 51% stake in YPF held by Spain’s Repsol without tendering shares held by minor investors. Burford said that it expects to receive between 35% and 73% respectively of Petersen and Eton Park damages. Reporting by Jonathan Stempel, New York Editing Mark Potter
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India extends met coke import restrictions for six months
A government order announced on Monday that the Indian government had extended its import restrictions on low-ash coke (a raw material for steelmaking) by six months, starting in July. This was a major blow to steelmakers, who opposed restrictions on overseas purchases. The order stated that India, the second largest crude steel producer in the world, would set country-specific imports quotas, and limit purchases to 1.4 million metric tonnes from July 1 through December 31. In February, it was reported that India would be willing to extend the restrictions on met coke with low ash imports in order to encourage steel mills locally to purchase from domestic suppliers. In May, it reported that India's Steel Ministry was in favor of extending the restrictions. Major steel producers such as ArcelorMittal Nippon India, and JSW Steel are concerned about the curbs. They claim that they will hinder their expansion plans, because it's difficult to find preferred grades locally. In April, India's Commerce minister Piyush Goyal urged steelmakers in India to source metcoke locally. India also launched an anti-dumping investigation into overseas supplies low-ash metcoke from Australia and China. It has also opened an inquiry in response to a request by an industry group. China, Japan and Indonesia are the major raw material suppliers. Poland, Switzerland, and Poland also contribute to the imports. Reporting by Neha Meenaktshi and Harshita Arora. (Editing by Susan Fenton, Mark Potter and Mark Potter.)
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US rejects UN summit, but global leaders vow development push
The first ever summit of its kind began in Seville on Monday in scorching temperatures, with the world leaders increasingly under pressure to reduce poverty and limit Climate change Other key development goals are increasingly in danger. U.N. Chief Antonio Guterres stated that the event was intended to "repair and rev up" an international system in which "trust is fraying, and multilateralism has been strained." This was a jab at the most notable absence from the conference - U.S. president Donald Trump. The world's biggest economy and its traditional largest aid donor, refused to take part in the conference after refusing to support the summit's action plan hammered over the past year. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, also took a shot at his American counterpart. He called the decision to launch a trade conflict at a time of such stress on the planet "an aberration". Barbados, Kenya France, Spain, and other countries made a series of announcements, including a plan to tax private jets, first class flights, and luxury cars. Guterres said that the Seville Commitment, at the core of the event, was a global promise to change the way the world supports the poorer countries. Pre-summit "outcomes" The agreement included a tripling of multilateral lending, debt relief, an effort to increase tax-to GDP ratios to 15% or more, and a shift of special IMF funds to countries in greatest need. Macron said that the World Bank, and other leading development banks, should be willing to sacrifice their high credit ratings in order to achieve these targets. Macron stated that multilateral development banks who "wish to maintain their triple-A credit rating without using guarantees instruments are wrong." "They must do more with their balance sheet." SYSTEM OVERHAUL Guterres stated that more than $4 trillion in funding per year is needed, and the key financial infrastructure of the world needs to be quickly retooled to make this happen. Guterres also said that the world development banks need to be reformated to increase their lending and attract private capital. This was tied to the need to reform credit rating systems around the world to make them fairer for developing countries who are trying to invest in projects to improve their fortunes. Guterres stated that "countries need and deserve" a system which lowers borrowing rates, allows fair and timely restructuring of debt and prevents debt crisis in the first instance. He cited a plan for creating a single debt register to increase transparency and efforts to reduce the cost capital through debt swaps.
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What is a "heat dome" and how does this power heatwaves in the summer?
On Monday, large parts of Western Europe experienced a severe heatwave. In Spain, temperatures reached 40 degrees Celsius. Scientists have said that the extreme temperatures across the region, including in Britain and the Netherlands, are related to the "heat dome" which has been forming over continental Europe. What does that mean? What is it? Heat domes are areas of high-pressured air that get stuck over a particular area because the atmospheric dynamics surrounding it prevent it from moving. The lid works just like the lid of a pot that is boiling. The system of high pressure traps the hot air beneath it. This heats up, and then compresses into a "dome". The heat is intensified and clouds are prevented from forming, so more sunlight can reach the earth below. The heat dome is characterized by clear, sunny, still days with little wind. The heat builds up with time. The longer the "dome", which is a dark surface, like a road or building, is placed over a certain area, the more the dark surfaces absorb and retain the heat. The heat also increases the likelihood of wildfires, as it dries up vegetation. These systems can last from days to weeks. Forecasts indicate that this high-pressure system will dissipate within a few weeks. This happens when another weather systems, such as storms or low-pressure systems with cooler conditions, pushes away the high-pressure. IS IT RELATED TO CLIMATE CHAIN? Heat domes aren't a new weather pattern. It would take a specific attribution study to determine how the heat dome that Western Europe is experiencing today was affected by climate changes. Scientists said that the severity and timing of this heatwave in Western Europe are consistent with the effects of climate change on heatwaves. Scientists have confirmed that climate changes is increasing heatwave events in intensity, frequency and spread. Over time, the average temperature of the Earth has risen due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These emissions are mainly caused by the burning fossil fuels. The increase in temperatures at baseline means that, when a heatwave hits, the temperatures can soar to higher peaks. According to the national meteorological service AEMET in Spain, June was likely one of the hottest on record. Meanwhile, on Sunday, Mora, a town located in Portugal's southeast, set a national record high temperature of 46.6 C. The average global temperature today has increased by nearly 1.3 degrees Celsius in the past century since the Industrial Revolution, when countries started burning fossil fuels at industrial scale. Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world, with temperatures rising twice as fast as the average global rate. Will we get more? Climate change causes extreme heatwaves to occur earlier in the season and last into the later months. In the past two weeks, parts of the United States experienced extreme temperatures due to a heat dome. Although it's difficult to predict heatwaves months ahead, the current seasonal forecasts indicate that Europe will experience a summer warmer than normal, according to Dr Samantha Burgess of EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Heavens; Additional reporting by Ali Withers, Kate Abnett).
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Stocks reach new record highs on the back of trade optimism
On Monday, global stocks rose on the hope that U.S. Trade Negotiations with Key Partners would continue to advance. Meanwhile, the dollar fell and was on course for its worst performance in more than 50 years during the first half. Canada has halted the digital services tax that was to be imposed on U.S. tech firms, just hours before its scheduled implementation. This is part of an effort to move forward with stalled negotiations between Washington and Ottawa. Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, and Donald Trump, President of the United States will try to reach a trade agreement by July 21. This is an extension to Trump's July 9 deadline on "reciprocal tariffs". Officials have said that most deals can now be completed by Labor Day, September 1, although the July 9 deadline is still valid for other countries. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, said on Monday that countries should "be aware" that Trump could return to the April 2 tariff levels, when he announced a range of harsh duties against nations around the world. He also stated that any decision to extend negotiations will be made by Trump. Trump said the deadline could be moved. The markets are also thinking that the Fed may cut interest rates sooner rather than later. There are many factors at play," said Dennis Dick of Triple D Trading, in Ontario, Canada. Investors are confident in the market because they've seen some bad news, including some negative earnings reports. They buy back stocks immediately. Bulls are still in full control." Wall Street saw modest gains after the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and financial stocks closed at record levels on Friday. Utilities were the worst performers of the 11 major S&P sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 108.95, or 0.25 percent, to 43.928.53, while the S&P 500 gained 8.91, or 0.14 percent, to 6,181.98. And the Nasdaq Composite climbed 30.67, or 0.15 percent, to 20,302.84. Investors are likely to be watching a number of labor market reports during the holiday-shortened week. The government payroll report on Thursday will be the highlight. The report will be released a day earlier, and the U.S. Stock Market will close on Friday because of the Independence Day holiday. Some Fed officials have stated, including Jerome Powell as Chair, that the strength of labor market allows the central bank to delay cutting rates until it can better gauge the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation. Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said that the economy is yet to feel the full effects of Trump's tariffs. Investors also monitored the progress of the massive U.S. spending and tax-cutting bill that is slowly making its slow way through the Senate. The Republicans will attempt to pass the bill on Monday. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will add $3.3 trillion in debt to the United States over a ten-year period, putting foreign demand for U.S. Treasury bonds at risk. MSCI's global stock index rose 0.98 points or 0.10% to 915.73, and was on course for its third consecutive session of gains, after reaching an intraday high of 916.44. STOXX 600, the pan-European index, fell by 0.29% but is still on track for its second consecutive quarterly gain despite a drop of more than 1%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies) fell by 0.14%, falling to 97.06; the euro rose by 0.24%, reaching $1.1747. The dollar has been struggling all year due to expectations that the Fed will be more aggressive about cutting interest rates in the coming year after Powell is replaced. The dollar has dropped 10.5% in the first half of the year, marking its largest drop since 1973 when the U.S. switched to a freely-floating currency rate. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 0.8 basis points, to 4.275%. U.S. crude dropped 0.96%, to $64.89 per barrel. Brent was down to $67.55 a barrel on the same day. To read Markets and Finance news, click on https://www..com/finance/markets For the state of play of Asian stock markets please click on:
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Mali takes over abandoned gold mines from foreign companies
The government of Mali announced on the weekend that it had completed the takeover by Mali of the Yatela gold mines and the Morila abandoned gold mines. However, questions remain about how the value left in the mines can be tapped. The takeovers, and the failure to reveal how the operations would be funded, highlight the complex challenges that Mali faces as it seeks a way to gain control over its natural resources while leveraging high commodity prices in order to boost its economy. This is similar to the moves made by other West African countries such as Burkina Faso or Niger. Last year, Mali's military leadership, which took power following coups in 2020 & 2021, declared their intention to nationalise mines. Since taking power, the military government has pressed foreign mining companies by increasing taxes, revising contracts, regulatory crackdowns, and generally shifting from Western investors towards Russian interests. Mali is Africa's second largest gold producer, producing 65 tons per year. Gold prices have been strong in 2018, mainly due to tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and geopolitical uncertainties. It has been difficult to make gold assets in Mali a successful investment. Yatela, a mine located in Mali’s western Kayes Region, was abandoned in 2016. Sadiola Exploration Company (a joint venture between South Africa’s AngloGold Ashanti & Canada’s IAMGOLD) determined that the low prices rendered operations unprofitable despite unexplored reserves. Firefinch Australia, which acquired stakes in mining giants Barrick Mining, and AngloGold Ashanti in the south Sikaso area, abandoned the Morila mine, in the same region, in 2022, leaving behind what was described in a government statement at the weekend as "significant financial and environmental liabilities". In a statement, the government did not specify how the mines would be operated or financed. But extracting the value of Yatela and Morila is not going to be easy while Barrick's complex mines are being reopened by the government. This month, the Loulo-Gounkoto Gold Complex of a Canadian company was taken over by the state in a major escalation to a long-running dispute about taxes and ownership. Reporting by Mali Newsroom Maxwell Akalaare Adombila Editing Robbie Corey Boulet and David Goodman
The Russian rouble is flat against the US dollar, as the central bank announces further rate cuts
The Russian rouble was flat on Monday against the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese Yuan as a senior official of the central bank announced that more interest rate reductions would be made at a July 25 meeting.
According to LSEG, based on quotes over the counter, by 1140 GMT the rouble was trading at 78.50 US dollars. Since the beginning of the year, the Russian currency has gained 45% in value against the US dollar.
Alexei Zabotkin, deputy governor of the central bank, said that the board could consider a rate cut of up to 1 percentage point if inflation data shows that it will slow down to 4% by 2026.
Most analysts believe that the rouble's value is too high.
Zabotkin said to reporters that the exchange rate of the rouble will continue on a path consistent with the inflation returning to 4%, the target set by the central bank in 2026. The current level is just below 10%.
The rouble is expected to continue to fall as the central bank continues its rate-cutting. The rouble, which is the most commonly traded currency in Russia, was flat against the Chinese Yuan at 10.92 per Chinese Yuan on Monday on the Moscow Stock Exchange. (Additional reporting from Elena Fabrichnaya, St. Petersburg; writing by Gleb Brianski; editing by Susan Fenton).
(source: Reuters)