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Oil outlook is boosted by geopolitical tensions, but concerns about demand persist

A poll on Monday showed that analysts have slightly raised their oil price predictions after the recent flare-up in tensions in the Middle East. However, rising OPEC+ supplies and a tempered outlook for demand continue to weigh down on crude.

In a survey conducted by 40 economists and analysts, a June estimate of Brent crude at $67.86 per barrel in 2025 was higher than the $66.98 estimate made in May. U.S. crude, on the other hand, is forecast to average $64.51 per barrel, which is above last month's $63.35 estimate. According to LSEG, prices have averaged around $70.80 and $67.50 so far this season.

Brent oil prices have been volatile this month due to the conflict between Iran and Israel, as well as the U.S. decision of intervening. Brent reached $81.40 in the beginning before dropping to $67.14 at the end.

Suvro Sarkar is the lead energy analyst for DBS Bank. He said: "We expect the region to remain on edge... leading some volatility in the oil prices over the coming days and week."

Many analysts, however, saw the price spikes as temporary if there was no serious escalation of the conflict in the region. Cyrus De La Rubia is the chief economist of Hamburg Commercial Bank. He said that as long as Gulf oil production remains online, OPEC+'s rising output and ample inventories will limit crude prices.

He added, "We expect the prices to return to fundamentals as long as the Iran-Israel conflict doesn't escalate." OPEC+ agreed in May to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels a day for the month of July. This brings the total of increases announced or made since April to 1,37 million bpd. Matthew Sherwood is the lead commodities analyst for EIU. He said that these increases have a significant effect on market sentiment.

Sherwood said: "We expect OPEC+ will exercise caution when raising production and may even put plans on hold for an indefinite period of time at the first sign that prices could fall significantly."

Analysts expect the global oil demand to increase by 730,000 bpd on average in 2025. This is a significant improvement from last month's poll, which predicted 775,000 bpd. The U.S.-China trade agreement has helped to ease demand concerns. However, the markets are still cautious about its impact.

Tobias Keller is an analyst at UniCredit. He said that the US-China trade agreement may support oil demand modestly by improving sentiment on the market and by increasing trade flows. However, its impact will likely be limited, and it will depend largely on broader economic dynamics and supply dynamics.

(source: Reuters)