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The price of oil has fallen on the back of OPEC+'s increased supply and tariff worries

The oil prices fell on Tuesday due to expectations that OPEC+ will increase their output in August, and fears of a slowdown in the economy caused by higher U.S. Tariffs.

Brent crude dropped 30 cents or 0.5% to $66.44 per barrel at 0430 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude also fell 33 cents or 0.5% to $64.78 per barrel.

Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a recent note that "the market is concerned the OPEC+ will continue its accelerated pace of output increases". Four OPEC+ source told us last week that they plan to increase output by 411,000 barrels a day in August. This follows similar increases in May, July, and June.

If approved, OPEC+ would increase its total oil supply for the year by 1.78 million bpd. This is equivalent to over 1.5% of global demand. OPEC+ (OPEC, its allies, including Russia) will meet on the 6th of July.

ING commodities analysts said that "these larger supply increases will leave the global market well-supplied for the rest of the year."

"The market appears to be reassured by the expectation of a stable oil balance and a large amount OPEC spare capacity," ING said.

Oil prices were also held back by uncertainty about U.S. Tariffs and their impact. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent warned countries that they could face a sharply increased tariff despite good faith negotiations, as the deadline of July 9 approaches. This is when tariffs are set to return from a temporary level of 10% to the suspended rates announced by President Donald Trump on April 2, which ranges between 11% and 50%.

Morgan Stanley believes Brent futures will retrace back to $60 around early next year. The market is well-supplied and the geopolitical risks have abated following the de-escalation between Israel and Iran. It anticipates a surplus of 1.3m bpd by 2026.

Brent prices rose after a 12-day conflict that began on June 13, when Israel targeted Iran's nuclear installations. After the U.S. attacked Iran's nuclear sites, Brent prices soared over $80 per barrel. They then fell to $67 a bar after Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. (Reporting from Anjana Anil and Jeslyn in Bengaluru; editing by Himani Sarkar.)

(source: Reuters)