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Green steel is even affordable and possible, however still unlikely: Russell

D ecarbonising steel production is key to accomplishing international netzero emission targets and the good news is that it can be accomplished, and the cost isn't prohibitive for some usages.

The bad news is decarbonising steel isn't likely to happen without policy, paired with cost incentives that drive a. move in financial investment and consumption.

Steel production represent about 8% of international carbon. emissions and about 30% of emissions from market, and the. sector is the significant customer of metallurgical coal, which is a. essential source of heat and carbon required to turn iron ore into. steel.

The determining factors in any conversation about changing to. producing green steel is how much more will it cost than the. existing, well-established methods, and whether it can be scaled. up quick enough.

The expense premium demonstrates how it can work, and equally why it. likely will not.

The bright side is that the premium is not as big as many. would fear, relying on how and where you produce the green. steel.

The premium may be nearly nothing or approximately about $150 a. metric heap, according to the consensus of discussions at last. week's Global Iron Ore and Steel Forecast Conference, held in. Perth in Western Australia, the state that produces the bulk of. the world's exported iron ore.

To put that in perspective, hot-rolled coil futures in. Shanghai ended at 3,782 yuan a ton on Tuesday,. comparable to $524.24, while London-traded U.S. steel. ended at $803.

Figures from Monash University in Australia show that green. steel could be made in Western Australia for about A$ 850 ($ 570). a lot using a mix of wind, solar, battery storage and hydrogen.

The problem is that even a fairly modest premium likely. makes green steel unviable for much of the market, where costs. are a significant element.

CHINA STEEL

Take China's steel demand as an example.

China produces about half of the world's steel and purchases just. over 70% of worldwide seaborne iron volumes.

Its steel intake in 2024 was 907.3 million lots,. according to information from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The only sector that might be prepared to pay a premium for. green steel is automobile production.

Due to the fact that the volume of steel per vehicle is most likely, this is. around 1-1.5 lots, suggesting that even assuming a premium of $150. a ton for green steel, the impact on the retail price of a. lorry is minimal.

It's possible the marketing value of saying the car is. produced with green steel may surpass the real cost of utilizing. the eco-friendly item.

China's vehicle sector utilized 54 million tons of. steel in 2024, according to S&P Global, which is a mere 6% of. total need.

The biggest steel customers are property and facilities,. which used a combined 518 million tons in 2024, or 57% of the. overall.

A modern skyscraper building might utilize about 700 lots of steel. per floor, suggesting a 100-story building would utilize some 70,000. loads, which at a premium of $150 a load would include about $10.5. million to the cost.

High-speed rail can use in between 30,000 and 60,000 lots of. steel per km, and even utilizing the lower figure suggests going green. adds $4.5 million per km.

Both of these numbers indicate that green steel is likely. unaffordable for these applications, especially in Asia, the. world's most populated continent and the most significant motorist of steel. need currently and likely for the next thirty years.

INVESTMENT SWITCH

The 2nd significant factor challenging green steel is how to. switch from the existing method of utilizing a blast heating system to turn. iron ore into pig iron utilizing coal, and then using a basic oxygen. furnace (BOF) to turn this into steel.

There are a number of various courses available, but the one. more than likely to prosper involves using green energy to update. iron ore into direct minimized iron (DRI), which can then be. turned into steel utilizing an electric arc heater or by utilizing a. hydrogen or natural gas powered BOF.

Nevertheless, DRI is too unstable to be delivered, implying that if. Australia was to upgrade its iron ore to DRI, it would have to. be even more beneficiated into hot briquetted iron (HBI), a strong. kind that can be delivered.

It's possible that HBI could be shipped from Australia to. steel mills in China, Japan and other producing countries in. Asia, but these countries would have to have the green hydrogen. or clean electrical energy offered to produce the last steel. items.

All of this requires substantial capital investment, and. currently the money isn't streaming in this instructions offered China. and other nations across Asia are still constructing blast. heaters and BOFs developed to utilize coal.

This is why the only way to drive a switch to green steel is. likely through regulation and price signals such as carbon. border taxes.

However getting global contract on a carbon prices system for. steel is most likely to be fraught, as developing nations in Asia. will almost certainly push back on having to pay more for their. steel.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)