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Powell's comments and trade war weigh on the dollar, stocks, and stock prices

The dollar was anchored near three-year lows on Thursday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned about the risks of slowing the growth of the economy and increasing prices due to tariffs.

After a bruising trading session on Wednesday, the spotlight remained on technology stocks in light of warnings issued by bellwethers Nvidia & ASML and earnings from Taiwanese TSMC.

Gold prices, which are considered safe havens, continued to rise, setting yet another record in the early hours of trading on Thursday. Powell's remarks that U.S. growth was slowing led Treasury yields to fall.

Stock markets in Asia were hesitant after the U.S. stock market closed with a sharp decline. South Korea's benchmark stock index rose 0.4%, while Taiwan stocks dropped 0.5%.

The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.7%, while the yen fell as Japan began talks with the U.S. President Donald Trump said that there had been "big progress" in the surprise decision to directly negotiate with the Japanese delegation.

Powell also said that the Fed will wait to see more data about the direction of the economy before it makes any interest rate changes.

Tom Graff is the chief investment officer of Facet. "Powell's in a tough spot," he said. "The Fed cannot act proactively to stem potential economic weakness because tariffs will likely also cause inflation."

They simply cannot cut rates when inflation is rising. "This is doubly true given that inflation is already very high."

The health of the semiconductor industry will be gauged by the earnings forecast from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's biggest contract chipmaker.

The stock market took a beating on Wednesday, after Dutch giant ASML said that tariffs would increase uncertainty about its outlook for the years 2025 and 26.

AI pioneer Nvidia warned of a $5.5billion hit after Washington restricted the export of its AI processor designed for China.

"The chipmakers' demand could be affected if there is a recession, for whatever reason, said Chris Zaccarelli. Chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.

But there is the possibility that there could be a decrease in demand if there were tariff barriers, or if short-term costs are imposed.

Early trading saw Chinese stocks fall as fears of a escalating U.S. China trade war dampened sentiment. Blue-chip stocks were down 0.5% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 0.6%.

TRADE TALKS

Investors have focused on the fast-changing trade policies of Trump, as they wait to see whether new agreements will be reached between the U.S.

Investors dumped U.S. Treasuries and other assets last week because of uncertainty about the implementation of trade levies.

In the Asian hours, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remained at 4,302% after falling by over 4 basis points during the previous session.

The euro fell 0.33% to $1.1364, but it was still close to its three-year-high reached last week. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. money against six other currencies) was slightly higher for the day, at 99.562.

The yen reached a seven-month peak earlier in the session, before falling to 142.60 dollars per yen after Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Acazawa stated that foreign exchange was not discussed during the Washington trade talks.

Gold prices have been the focus of commodities as they reached yet another record-high, reaching as high as 3,357.40 an ounce in the morning session, due to the safe-haven flow. Gold last stood at $3,337.4 an ounce.

The prospect of a tighter supply has helped oil prices extend their gains. Brent crude futures increased 0.38%, to $66.1 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.58%.

(source: Reuters)