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Carnival's forecast for current quarter profits is below estimates due to higher fuel costs
Carnival Corporation forecast third-quarter profits below estimates as fuel prices and geopolitical tensions continue to squeeze margins. Its shares fell about 8% in early trading. After the Middle East conflict, cruise operators who are heavily dependent on fuel oil or marine gas oil have faced a more challenging operating environment. Carnival's second-quarter revenue was also lower than expected. The company said geopolitical instability weighed heavily on bookings. This was particularly true for European itineraries that were close to the conflict. Carnival, the only major U.S. Cruise Operator that does not typically hedge fuel, said it "overcame extreme geopolitical costs and almost 30 percent higher fuel costs" in the third quarter. The revenue of $6.66 Billion for the quarter ending May 31 was below expectations of $6.69 Billion. Carnival has said that its booking position in the second half of this year is higher than it was last year. This is due to the strong demand for luxury travel. "We're now 93 per cent booked for the year, with less inventory left for sale than at this time last years. We are on track to record net yields in the second half 2026," stated CEO Josh Weinstein. According to data compiled by LSEG, the?company's?quarterly earnings per share are expected to be around $1.35. This compares to analysts' expectations of $1.42. It predicted that annual cruise costs adjusted for fuel would be around 2.4%, on a constant-currency basis. This is compared to its previous projection of 3.1%. The shares of peers Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean, who both warned about fuel cost pressures in their first-quarter report, fell by approximately 5% and 2.5%, respectively.
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Sibanye anticipates a 15% decline in global platinum production by 2034
An executive at South Africa's Sibanye Stillwater said that the company expects the?mined?platinum production to fall 15% by 2034 from current levels. The market is also tightening due to a slower-than-expected uptake of electric cars. The use of platinum in autocatalysts is under threat by the increasing number of electric cars, which don't need emission control devices. South African miner, who accounts for 70% of the global platinum production, are hesitant to add new production because they're uncertain about long-term demand. This leads to a decline in output as mineral deposits deplete. Kleantha Pillay is Sibanye’s executive vice-president for sales and marketing. She told analysts that "for?platinum we are looking at around 6.2 million pounds a year by 2019 and we expect this to drop?to just 4.7 million pounds by 2034." According to Johnson Matthey, the global?platinum production is expected to drop to 5.46 millions ounces by 2026 from 5.56million ounces this year. PALLADIUM OUTPUT ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL She said that palladium production, which is a member of the platinum group and can be used to replace platinum in certain applications, will also decline by 15% in 2034 from its current levels. Pillay added that Sibanye predicts electric vehicles will account for 35% of worldwide car sales by 2034. The International Energy Agency had predicted that electric vehicles would have a 50% share of global sales by 2035. Pillay stated that the forecast for battery-electric vehicles has been lowered every year since 2004. She said that the European Union's decision to ease?emission targets last December and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposal to delay enforcement of vehicle emission regulations "buys a little more time for combustion engine". Sibanye said it expected recycled PGMs to remain at the current levels of around 5 million ounces and not materially affect market balances. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Olivia Kumwenda Mtambo, Nelson Banya)
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What is the "Omega Block" causing Europe's intense summer heatwave?
A weather pattern called an omega block is sustaining the intense heatwave that has engulfed Western Europe and caused more than 40 deaths in France alone. What you need to understand about omega 'blocks' and whether they could be more common in the future due to climate change. What is an 'OMEGA BLOCKS'? The Greek letter O is the shape of an omega block, with a bulge between two low pressure systems that are cooler and warmer. The "blocking element" refers to the way in which warm, high-pressure air becomes stuck. In normal conditions, the Jetstream carries weather systems from west to east. The pressure systems are isolated when the flow is disrupted by an omega block. These'slow-moving patterns' are caused by weaker steering winds, and by temperature contrasts within the atmosphere. This results in hot still air being trapped over the same region. The average lifespan of an Omega block is between 3 and 10 days. However, they can last for several weeks. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN AN OMEGA BLOCKS? Conditions become hot and dry in the?area of high-pressure?in the middle. High pressure suppresses the formation of clouds, which results in clear skies and sunny skies, which allow temperatures to rise. Conditions like this are baking France, Spain and other countries where temperatures have risen above 40 degrees Celsius. Low-pressure zones flanking the hotspot are likely to experience cooler and rainier conditions. According to the UK Met Office, Britain is located on the boundary of a high-pressure system and a cooler air mass in the northwest, causing intense heat in south and east and cooler and wetter conditions north and west. IS CLIMATE CHAIN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS? Scientists are not yet in agreement on?how climate changes?affect the frequency of events such as this one. Global scientific consensus, however, is that climate change increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Since pre-industrial times, greenhouse gas emissions mainly from coal, oil and gas burning have warmed the earth by about 1.3 C. Heatwaves are more intense when the baseline temperature is higher. Clair Barnes, research associate at Imperial College London in extreme weather, climate and climate, says that Europe now experiences 'heatwaves 2 to 4 degrees hotter than would have occurred without human-caused warming. When patterns such as omega blocks are observed, the heat that results can be much more intense. (Reporting and editing by Richard Lough, Ros Russell and Kate Abnett)
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Gold drops 2% as rate hike bets push dollar to an all-time high
?Gold prices fell on?Tuesday as the U.S. Dollar hit a year-high on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, which outweighed support from softer prices for oil amid progress in U.S.Iran negotiations. By 9:26 am, spot gold had fallen 1.7% to $4118.73 an ounce. ET (1326 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery?fell by 1.6% to $4135.60 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar rose to its highest levels in over a year, Tuesday. This made gold more expensive for buyers from abroad. "At the moment, gold and silver aren't looking at the Middle East." Bob Haberkorn is a senior market analyst at StoneX. He believes that they are more interested in what the Federal Reserve has said over the past week. Investors have increased their bets for interest rate hikes after Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, sent hawkish signals against inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now expect a rate increase by December. This is up from the 61% they expected before the Fed's meeting last week. Gold is often seen to be a hedge against rising inflation. However, its non-yielding properties make it less attractive in an environment with high interest rates. The United States has waived its sanctions against Iran for 60 days, starting Monday, following the first round of talks in a new peace agreement, although hostilities continue in Lebanon, according to officials. U.S. Vice-President JD Vance had earlier said that talks with Iranian officials held in Switzerland laid the?good basis for a final deal', and that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which was previously clogged, is picking up. Brent crude futures dropped more than 1%, to $77.07 per barrel. Investors now await ?U.S. The?Fed will release its preferred inflation indicator, Personal Consumption Spending data, on Thursday. This information can provide further clues about monetary policy. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda)
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Norilsk Nickel, a Russian company, sees a global palladium surplus in 2026 of 0.3 millions ounces.
Norilsk Nickel, the world's biggest palladium producer said that it expects to have a global palladium surplus of 0.3 million (Moz), excluding investments and stock movements, in 2026. The demand for palladium, excluding investments, is expected to reach 9.1 Moz by 2026, and 9.3 in 2027. Meanwhile, the supply will be at 9.4 and 9.5 respectively. Nornickel stated in a review of the market that preliminary estimates indicate investment demand for palladium may reach 0.3 Moz in 2026. This would effectively bring the market into balance. A similar trend is expected in?2027. Nornickel expects that global primary palladium output will fall 2% annually in '2026, to 6.1 Moz. This is due to lower grades in Russia and continued caution by North American producers. South Africa production should remain largely stable. It expects to reach 6.2 Moz in 2027. The Russian Platinum-owned Chernogorskoye mine is expected to contribute the most to the palladium supply in 2027 as the production returns to the low-grade areas affected by 2026. The Chernogorskoye mine is expected to support a return to growth in 2027. Russian Platinum will?start producing at its Arctic Polymetallic Project in November. After that,?PGM bearing concentrate will be supplied to Nornickel pursuant to an offtake contract. The project will add 0.5 Moz of palladium annually to Russia's production over the long-term. Nornickel, a'major producer of refined Nickel,' said that it expected a nickel surplus in the global market of 20,000 metric tons for this year. This will rise to 55,000 metric tons by 2027. It warned that the nickel outlook was highly dependent on Indonesia's situation, as the world's largest producer of the metal. (Reporting and writing by Anastasia Lyrchikova, Editing by Andrew Heavens & Joe Bavier; Reporting by Alessandra Prrentice)
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Putin claims that the attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure are a destabilisation attempt by Russia
On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine was attacking civilian infrastructures in Russia to try and destabilise the society. Ukraine's attacks against oil refineries has doubled since 2026. This has led to longer?lines in some areas and higher gasoline prices. Kyiv has said that its goal is to savage a 'key source' of war funding for Russia and to show Russians that the conflict is not a distant one. Putin made his first comments on the attacks, since Ukrainian drones struck a Moscow refinery a week ago. "Strikes on civilian infrastructure - what is their purpose?" "To destabilize society, amid such a massive assault, when the West is working on their behalf - and these drones are arriving in large numbers, to create a sense of ambiguity about the actions of Russian armed forces," he said during the televised meeting. He said that Russian troops are close to taking over Kostiantynivka - the southern anchor of the "fortress belt", which Moscow demanded Kyiv give up. Reporting by Alessandra Prentice, Writing by Gleb Brynski; Editing and proofreading by Gleb Brnski
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Will US and International Sanctions on Iran be Lifted?
Under the interim agreement to end the war with Iran, the U.S. began lifting some sanctions. However, it will be difficult for any comprehensive agreement to unravel the tangled webs of restrictions that restrict the country's trade and activities. It is for this reason that any attempt to lift the sanctions against Iran may take many years, and foreign investment could be slow to return. WHEN WILL THE SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN BE RELEASED? Since decades, the U.S. has imposed sanctions, trade 'embargos' and asset freezings on Iran over its nuclear program, human rights record, and support of groups in the region. As the next phase unfolds, Iran hopes to receive further sanctions relief by talking about its nuclear program. It is crucial that the ruling system, which has been plagued by unrest in recent years, including mass protests violently suppressed over economic woes last January. After a war that ended in a draw, it could be difficult for both sides of the conflict to reconcile their differences. What are the UN sanctions? U.N. sanction are linked to Iran's nucleo-program and assessed violations under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. In 2006, 2007 and 2008, the U.N. Security Council adopted resolutions that imposed sanctions. These included an embargo on arms, a ban on certain nuclear materials and technology as well as a freeze on assets for some companies and individuals. The resolutions also prohibited Iran from engaging in any activity to manufacture ballistic missiles that could deliver nuclear weapons. The resolutions did not ban Iranian oil exports, but they did freeze the funds and assets held by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the state-owned shipping company. The Security Council established a timeline for lifting sanctions against Iran after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was signed in 2015. In 2018, however, President Donald Trump tore up the agreement and Iran stopped meeting some of its conditions. Last year, the U.N. sanction were reimposed via a "snapback?" mechanism. How hard will Trump find it to lift US sanctions? Washington sanctioned Iran for the first time in 1979, when students took over the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held diplomats as hostages. Since then, numerous additional sanctions have been imposed, including measures to restrict Iranian oil and gas exports, Iran's support of groups the U.S. considers terrorist organizations, and the nuclear program. Washington has designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization, despite the fact that it is the most powerful entity in the nation and is deeply entangled with the economy. There is no easy, quick way to stop all sanctions. They are administered by Treasury, but they have different authorities, and different mechanisms. The authority to impose sanctions comes from two 1970s laws that granted emergency powers to presidents, which had to be renewed every year. Also from laws passed in 1996 and 2017, specifically targeting Iran and others. Trump can reverse sanctions imposed by his executive orders. The sanctions include a freeze on Iranian assets worth billions of dollars, an arms embargo and a ban on any trade or investment with Iran. The sanctions imposed by Congress are harder to remove, as they did not include any waivers or exemptions based on Iranian human rights violations and Tehran's support of groups Washington views as "terrorist organizations". There are many companies, people and government agencies that have been specifically designated. Removing them all could take some time. Does Europe also have sanctions against Iran? In 2012, the EU placed embargoes against Iranian oil exports. It also froze the assets of the Central Bank of Iran. The government imposed restrictions in the areas of foreign trade, finance and energy. In 2012, EU directives cut off large parts of Iran's banking system from foreign countries. Despite the JCPOA lifting some sanctions, others were reinstated later. Additional sanctions have been targeted at individuals as well as specific?missiles and drone components. The EU also sanctioned Iran's IRGC, and it imposed additional sanctions in this year due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. WOULD FOREIGN BUSINESSES RETURN TO IRAQ IF THE SANCTIONS WERE RELEASED? Many companies are concerned about legal repercussions if they return to Iran without a comprehensive lifting of sanctions. It could be hard for companies to know if they are not breaking the rules by accident because so many Iranian individuals and companies have been listed. Investors and companies could be sued by victims of attacks who may sue them for aiding certain groups. Where does Iran have frozen assets? Iran has tens billions in foreign bank accounts, mostly from its oil and gas exports, but it is unable to access them due to the sanctions imposed on its banking sector and oil sector. South Korea, China Japan, Luxembourg, and Iraq are all countries where Iran had unaccessible billions in bank accounts from its oil sales.
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Russell: India pivots towards Russian crude and coal in order to reduce the Iran war's fallout.
After the Iran conflict, when oil flows were disrupted and costs rose, India began to buy Russian coal and crude oil to boost its energy supplies. According to Kpler, commodity analysts, the world's third largest oil importer will see Russian crude arrivals surge to a new record of 2,55 million barrels a day (bpd). The imports of Russian goods in June?would have been higher than the 2.13million bpd recorded in May. This was?the?third-highest record, and only behind the 2.16million bpd registered for May 2023. In June, Russia's share will be slightly less than 50% of India's total crude oil imports (5.29 million bpd). This is a dramatic increase from 23% in the average three-month period prior to the beginning of the war in February when Israel and the United States launched an aerial attack against Iran. India's shift to Russian crude comes after President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on buying it to increase oil supplies after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz as a response to U.S.-Israel attacks. The waiver ended on June 17, and the U.S. Treasury did not extend it. Theoretically, this would mean that India should cut back on its Russian crude imports. However, whether they do so depends on the confidence of their government and refiners to buy Middle East oil again. India has not yet bought from certain Middle East producers. Kpler forecasts that imports from Saudi Arabia will be 349,000 bpd by June, down from the 832,000 Bpd predicted in the three-month period prior to the Iran conflict. COAL RUSSIAN India's imports of coal have also risen in the past few months. India will import 3,16 million metric tonnes of coal, all grades included, from Russia in the month of June. This is a slight decrease compared to May's 3.27 million. The imports in June are 51% higher than the average for the three months before the conflict. These two months rank second and third on the list behind May's 3.76 million ton record. In June, Russia will surpass Australia as the world's largest coal supplier to India. India is the world's biggest coal importer after China. India is increasing its production of steel and is competing with Russia to buy more metallurgical coking coal. India imported 2.02 million tonnes of Russian metallurgical coke in May. This was the second highest amount on record and well above the 1.49 million ton average for the three months before the Iran War. Imports of metallurgical coke from Australia also reached a record high in May, with 4.05 million tonnes, the highest since July 2017. This helped boost total imports to an all-time high of?8.05 millions tons. India's steel production is expected to increase from the current 168 millions tons per year to 400,000,000 tons by 2035. An estimated 25 million tonne of capacity will be added just this year. India's thermal coal reserves are vast, but its metallurgical output is just 6%. Its coal is also of lower quality than the coal imported from Australia, Russia, and other countries such as the United States or Mozambique. India will likely continue to increase its imports of metallurgical coke and seek out as many suppliers as it can to reduce its reliance on Australia as the largest shipper of this type of coal in the world. In the end, it is likely that Russia will continue to be a major supplier of coal for India. While New Delhi would like to continue buying Russian crude oil - much will depend on whether or not the Trump administration tries to enforce sanctions again against Moscow. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
Stocks fall as Fed rate bets hurt tech royalty; dollar gains
Investors shifted to bonds and the dollar as they grew more confident that the Federal Reserve would be more aggressive about tackling inflation. Futures on the Nasdaq fell more than 2.5%. This suggests that Monday's 1.3%?slide could continue into Tuesday. SpaceX shares struggled to reach positive territory during Tuesday's premarket after losing nearly 17% the previous day. Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft all also fell. S&P 500 futures fell 1.2%. STOXX 600 dropped 0.8% under pressure of declines by European chip and semiconductor makers. This followed declines among tech stocks in Japan, South Korea and South Korea. Seoul's KOSPI Index fell 10% on its biggest one-day drop since March. Trade Nation's senior market analyst, David Morrison, said that questions are being asked about AI infrastructure spending. This is especially true as some corporations plan to sell stock to fund expansion. The time will tell whether this is just another "buy the dip" opportunity or a sign of things to come.
OIL REMAINS UNDER $80 A BARREL Brent crude futures were?below$80 per barrel on Tuesday as the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz increased. Oil prices in the physical markets are almost back to their pre-war levels.
Investors are now focused on the impact of the recent surge in energy prices, and specifically the Federal Reserve, on central bank policy. Kevin Warsh, the new chair of the Federal Reserve, is expected to be much more aggressive in his approach to inflation. The 2-year Treasury yields - which are most sensitive to changes in inflation expectations and interest rates - have risen to their highest level in 16 months. Longer term yields also rose sharply. Tuesday's 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields both fell by around 3 basis points, to 4.20% and 4.499% respectively.
"The adjustment in U.S. rates is creating a challenging backdrop for risk asset in the near-term after strong gains over recent months," MUFG currency analyst Lee Hardman stated.
Investors are almost ready to price in a rate hike by September, according to the money markets. In this context, the dollar has reached its highest level in a year against a basket currency.
JAPANESE JEN AT 40-YEAR-LOWS A large part of this?strength came at the expense the Japanese yen. On Tuesday, it was flat at 161,58 against the dollar after having reached 40-year-lows the day before.
Investors reduced their bets that the European Central Bank would raise rates further, and as a result, the euro dropped below $1.14. This was a one-year low.
Satsuki Katayama, the Japanese Finance Minister, said that she held an online meeting with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent one day earlier to discuss financial markets. Analysts?said this indicated an increased risk of Tokyo intervening to support the yen. On the 10th anniversary since the Brexit vote, which saw Britain leave the European Union and the euro, the pound was down 0.3% at $1.3216. Sterling fell on Monday after British Prime Minister Keir starmer announced he would step down, paving the way for an expected orderly transfer to Andy Burnham. Gold fell 1.7%, to $4,120 per ounce, as expectations of a rate hike in the U.S. this year increased. Bitcoin fell 3%, to $62,500. Ether dropped 4%, to $1,660. (Reporting from Singapore by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Additional reporting in Tokyo by Rocky Swift; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus, Kevin Liffey and Kevin Liffey).
(source: Reuters)