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Oil prices fall as stocks rise on optimism about Iran deal

MSCI's global equities index rose?on Thursday, while oil prices dropped. An interim agreement to end the U.S. - Iran war allowed the reopening?of the Strait?of Hormuz. This fueled hopes that inflation?could?ease and that the U.S. Federal Reserve might not have to?tighten monetary?policy? this year. On Wednesday, the United States and Iran reached an agreement that extended a ceasefire declared in April for another 60 days. This will allow both sides to negotiate a peace. The agreement also allows for the full resume of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz "without charge". Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has threatened to re-launch attacks on Iran and to kill Iranian officials who fail to honor their commitments.

In this context, oil prices fell to their lowest level since early March. The dollar also rose, and U.S. Treasury rates dropped. The stock markets around the globe were mixed, with Tokyo and Seoul stocks hitting new highs over night, while European shares fell.

Investors bet on a reopening of Strait of Hormuz to ease inflation pressures and energy prices, which could lead to a more dovish policy. The U.S. stock indexes ended lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it may hike interest rates this year after its first meeting with Kevin Warsh as the new chair.

Energy stocks are down but lower energy costs will mean more profits for everyone else who uses energy. Brian Jacobsen is the chief economist?strategist at Annex Wealth Management in Brookfield, WI. It will be easier for the Fed to follow through with what they promised, which was rate hikes in this year. Fed futures showed bets on the U.S. central bank raising rates in this year. CME Group's FedWatch tool indicated a 38.6% likelihood that rates will be 25 basis point higher by December, and a 32.6% possibility that they will rise by 50 basis points.

Jacobsen stated that the trading on Thursday reflected investor caution over what will happen after the 60 day negotiating period between Iran and the U.S.

"It is more of a bounce rather than a direction change. I would expect to see a slight sideways movement from here. There's a lot of skepticism. Will the Memorandum of Understanding result in a lasting agreement?" He said. Wall Street was busy at 11:01 am. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 262.02 or 0.51% higher at 51.754.57. The S&P 500 rose by 74.17 or 1.00% to 7,494.43, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 343.55 or 1.33% to 26,368.43.

The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 6.00 points or 0.54% to 1,127.12.

The STOXX 600 index for Europe fell by?0.31%. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell?0.31%. U.S. crude oil fell by 3.36% on energy markets to $74.21 per barrel. Brent was down by 3.04% to $77.13 a barrel. The dollar has risen for the second consecutive day after the Fed meeting, which stoked expectations of higher interest rates. Nearly half of the policymakers said they expect an increase this year as inflation concerns continue to grow.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.21%, reaching 100.56. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.14% to $1.1483.

The dollar gained 0.14% against the Japanese yen to?160.84. The pound fell 0.32%, to $1.3248, after the Bank of England kept interest rates at their current levels. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 3.14 basis points from late Wednesday to 4.432%. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond rate fell 4.82 basis to 4.8788%.

The yield on the 2-year bond, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell by 1.39 basis points, to 4.149%. Spot gold dropped 0.14% to $4251.08 per ounce. Spot silver dropped 2.26% to a price of $66.45 per ounce. (Reporting from Sinead carew in New York; Amanda Cooper in London; Satoshi sugiyama in Tokyo. Editing by Elaine Hardcastle and Kirby Donovan.

(source: Reuters)