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Iron ore prices rise on positive China economic data
Iron ore futures rose on Thursday, boosted by?positive economic data from China. Meanwhile, falling domestic 'crude steel production' fueled hopes that global steel prices would rise and Chinese steel mill margins would improve. As of 0243 GMT, the most-traded contract for?September?iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 2.04% higher. It was valued at 774.5 Yuan ($113.60). The benchmark iron ore for May on the Singapore Exchange rose 1.09% to $105.35 per ton. The Trump administration expressed optimism on Wednesday regarding a possible deal to end the conflict with Iran, but warned of increased economic pressure if Tehran continues to be defiant. Positive sentiment on the metals market was fueled by hopes of an end to Iran's war. China's economy grew by 5.0% from a year ago in the first three months of this year, according to official data released on Thursday. This was better than analysts expected, as policymakers prepare for the aftermath of the Iran War. China's crude-steel output also fell 6.3% year-on-year in March, to its lowest monthly level since 2020. Margins were thinned out and exports decreased amid the Middle East conflict. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which released its statistics on Thursday, revealed that the world's biggest steel producer produced 87.04 millions metric tons crude steel in January. The lower Chinese steel production will 'lift steel prices globally', because China has historically slashed steel prices due to its large export volumes, making it difficult for steel mills to make a profit. In March, the country pledged to curb its overcapacity of steel. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also gained on the DCE. They rose by 0.93%?and?1.16% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have largely advanced. Rebar rose 0.52%; hot-rolled coil rose 0.67%; wire rod rose 0.09%, while stainless steel dropped 0.34%. ($1 = 6.8177 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Ronojojo Mazumdar).
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Gold rises on the back of a weaker dollar as US-Iran hopes for peace deal rise
Gold prices increased on 'Thursday', supported by a falling?dollar. Investors also weighed a?growing optimism over a possible U.S.Iran agreement to end the conflict that has pushed energy prices up and fueled fears of inflation. By 0301 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.7% to $4821.44 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery gained 0.4%, to $4844.40. The U.S. dollar hovered ?near its lowest level in six weeks, making greenback-denominated commodities including bullion more affordable for ?holders of other currencies, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields eased 0.1%. Kelvin Wong is a senior analyst at OANDA. He said that the primary reason for gains in 'gold' was optimism over a U.S.Iran ceasefire. "If we begin to see a breakout above $4,900, potential further upside can't be ruled out towards the next?intermediate resistance?zone which is at a psychological level of $5,000." On Wednesday, the Trump administration expressed optimism about a possible deal to end war with Iran. However, it warned that if Tehran continues to be defiant there would be increased economic pressure. Donald Trump believes that the war with Israel he started in late February is almost over. This, despite the fact that a shipping ban he had announced was now in effect and the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below the normal level. The spot gold price has fallen by more than 8% since the 'Iran war' began late in February, amid fears that high energy prices will feed inflation and raise global interest rates. Gold is considered to be a hedge against inflation. However, rising interest rates are affecting the demand for this non-yielding material. The traders in the U.S. now expect a '29%' chance that interest rates will be cut by 25 basis points this year. There were two expected reductions in interest rates for this year before the?war. Silver spot rose 1.7%, to $80.41 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.2%, to $2,135.58, while palladium increased 0.9%, to $1,587.39. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Asia markets advance on peace deal hopes, corporate earnings
Stocks rose in Asian trading Thursday, as traders digested economic data and crucial earnings reports. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside of Japan rose 0.9%. The benchmark is on track to gain for the third day in a row. Japan's Nikkei gained 2.2%, setting a new record. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report that they "remain constructive" about emerging market stocks, as the "underlying profit growth will likely be strong". The region's earnings will be driven by AI-related demands, which are relatively protected from the direct effects of the oil crisis. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% on Wednesday and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6% as Bank of America's and Morgan Stanley's strong quarterly earnings pushed the indexes up to "record highs". Around 6% of companies reported earnings for the third quarter. 84% surpassed analysts' expectations. As we enter the earnings season, our focus shifts back to fundamentals. A more idiosyncratic and stock-driven climate is beginning to take root," said Scott Rubner. He is the head of equity derivatives at Citadel Securities, based in New York. This reset offers a more positive entry point in equities. This is especially true for large-cap growth companies. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a pillar of the AI industry, will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday. A 50% increase in net profit is expected, as demand for TSMC's "advanced" chips soars. Brent crude oil rose 0.3% on the oil market to $95.23 per barrel. A source briefed from Tehran said that Iran might consider allowing ships to'sail freely through the Omani-side of the Strait of Hormuz, without the risk of being attacked as part of the proposals it offered in negotiations with United States. A refinery fire in Australia has also caused supply concerns. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, remained flat at 98.02, as geopolitical concerns eased, and traders moved forward expectations of monetary policies being loosened by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. president Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that he would fire Fed chair Jerome Powell if he did not give up his separate seat in the Board of Governors of the U.S. Central Bank when his term as Fed head ends on May 15. This heightened a complex standoff which has upset the Fed's normally smooth transfer of power, and renewed concerns about its independence. The euro is now within sight of reaching its highest level at $1.1809 since the beginning of World War I, and has extended its recent winning streak to a ninth straight day. Chinese shares rose 0.7% as data revealed that Asia's biggest economy grew by 5.0% in the first quarter of this year compared to a year ago, beating analysts' expectations. Policymakers were preparing for the aftermath of the Iran War. Junyu Tan is the regional economist at Coface Hong Kong for North Asia. She said, "The direct impact of the Middle East Conflict remains contained?for the time being." He added, "But the outlook for China is not all rosy?despite its relative resilience in the face of disruptions to energy supply chains." If the conflict continues, it could be that global demand is weaker and this would affect exports. Australian shares fell 0.2%, and the Aussie Dollar was unchanged after data showed that employment in Australia rose in line with expectations. Firms hired more full-time employees in March. Capital Economics analysts wrote in a report that the Reserve Bank of Australia's assessment of the inflation risks is reinforced by the latest data. Gold recovered 0.6%, reaching $4,819.55, and in cryptocurrency, bitcoin fell 0.2% to $74,718.47, while ether dropped 0.4% to 2,355.27. (Reporting and editing by William Mallard, Kim Coghill, and Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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Iran war closes US to being net crude exporter first time since World War Two
Last week, the U.S. almost became a net oil exporter for the first since World War Two. Shipments surged to near-record highs to meet the demand of Asian and European buyers scrambling in order to replace Middle East supply?cut off by the Iran War. The U.S.-Israeli war against?Iran has caused the biggest ever disruption in the global energy markets. Iranian threats have stopped a fifth of oil and gas from the world transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Refiners who depend on these supplies in Asia and Europe have purchased alternative cargoes wherever possible, thereby boosting the demand for oil produced by the United States, the largest producer of the world. Analysts and traders claim that the U.S. export capacity is quickly approaching. According to U.S. data released Wednesday, net imports of crude, or the difference between exports and imports, decreased to 66,000 barrels daily last week, the lowest ever recorded in weekly data dating back to 2001. Meanwhile, exports increased to 5.2 millions bpd, which is the highest since seven months. Data showed that the U.S. last exported crude oil on an annual basis in 1943. Janiv Shah, Rystad's vice president for oil markets and the Atlantic Basin, says that rising U.S. crude oil exports show that buyers in Asia are looking further out to find available oil, as regional differences in oil prices cover shipping costs. In recent months, countries such as Greece purchased U.S. crude oil for the first time. According to the ship tracking service Kpler, about 2.4 million barrels per day, or 47%, of U.S. imports last week went to Europe. About 37% of the U.S. exports last week, or 1.49 million bpd (about 1.4 million bpd), went to Asia. This is up from 30% one year ago. The Netherlands, Japan France Germany and South Korea were the top buyers. Kpler data revealed that a vessel with 500,000 barrels was on its way to Turkey. This would be the first U.S. import to Turkey in at least one year. BENCHMARK BRENT SOARING MAKES US OIL ATTRACIVE Imports into the U.S. dropped more than one million bpd, to 5.3 millions bpd, last week. The U.S. imports much of its crude because its refineries can only handle heavier grades, which are more sour than the lighter sweet crude that it produces. Last month, the disruption in Middle East oil supplies blew up the Brent crude premium over U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures to $20.69 per barrel, which reduced U.S. buyer's appetite for imports while making U.S. Crude attractive to refiners across Europe and Asia. According to LSEG traders and data, the price of crude oil?cargoes destined for immediate delivery in Europe reached a new high on Monday. Exports are approaching capacity Matt Smith, a Kpler analyst, said that U.S. exports will likely reach 5.2 million bpd in April. Smith added that monthly, exports have been pushing against their capacity limits. Analysts and traders said that the U.S. could export up to 6 million barrels per day, citing the limited capacity of pipelines and vessels. Government data shows that its exports reached a record of?5.6m bpd by 2023. The market has already tested the export limit with 5.2m bpd last week. "Every incremental barrel costs more than the previous one in terms of freight and logistics," said Bekzod Zhritdinov. Shah of Rystad said that a release of'medium-sour crude' from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would allow more U.S. crudes with low sulfur to be exported. He added that a shortage in tankers and higher freight costs could affect the export demand. As of Wednesday, about 80 supertankers with empty cargo were headed to the Gulf of Mexico, where they will likely pick up crude oil in April and May. Rohit Rathod is a senior analyst for Vortexa.
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Copper continues to gain on the hopes of US-Iran Peace Deal
The copper price rose on Thursday, trading 'close to six-week-highs'. This was largely due to the prospect of a U.S. peace agreement with Iran to end the war. As of 0137 GMT the most traded?copper contracts?on Shanghai Futures Exchange were up 0.11% to 102,390 Yuan ($15,014.96) a metric ton after reaching its highest level since March 3, at 103130 yuan on Wednesday. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.4% to $13,300.5 a ton. This is close to $13,392.5 - a six-week-high reached on Wednesday. The 'Trump Administration' expressed optimism about a possible deal to end the war with Iran on Wednesday, but warned of increased?economic pressure if Tehran continues to be defiant. "The prospect that the Middle East conflict will end has eased fears of a slowdown in economic growth and a drop in demand," ANZ analyst said in a recent note. Citi has adjusted its 0-3 months copper price forecast at $13,000 a metric tonne and increased forecasts for a number of 'other industrial metals. Citing the de-escalation of the 'U.S.Iran conflict, which has reduced the risk that a global shock to growth and demand will occur. SHFE aluminium increased by 1.89%. Nickel added 0.26%. Lead gained 1.53%. Zinc advanced 0.93%. Tin fell 0.72%. ($1 = 6.8192 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Amy Lv and Tony Munroe; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu) $1 = 6.8192 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Tony Munroe)
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One dead and 10 injured after Russian missiles strike Ukraine's Kyiv
Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported that Russian forces launched missiles at the Ukrainian capital Kyiv early on Thursday morning, killing one?12-year old?child and injuring several others, including members of emergency services, as well as damaging buildings. Klitschko wrote on Telegram that a 12-year old child was killed as a result the enemy's attack. At the moment, ten people are injured. This includes several medical personnel. Klitschko stated that rescue teams had rescued "a mother and child" from a badly damaged building located in the central district. He?also stated that a?missile hit the sixth-floor of an apartment in central Podil. Klitschko stated that a large fire broke out in an?area in the north of capital. Four emergency medical workers were injured, and debris fell in several locations. Oleksandr Ganzha, the regional governor, wrote on Telegram that Russian attacks also triggered major fires, injuring five people in Dnipro. Images posted online show buildings on fire. Officials in Kharkiv - Ukraine's second biggest city - have confirmed that two people were injured by drone strikes. Reporting by Ron Popeski, Editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman and Raju Gopikrishnan
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Asia markets advance on peace deal hopes, corporate earnings
The stock market rose in the early Asia trading on Thursday, as traders prepared for a series of important earnings reports and economic data. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.3%. This puts the benchmark on course for a third day of gains. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.5%. S&P 500 futures e-mini rose 0.1%. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% overnight and the Nasdaq Composite 1.6% as Bank of America's and Morgan Stanley's strong quarterly earnings pushed the indexes up to new highs. Around 6% of companies reported earnings for the third quarter.?84% of them beat analysts' expectations. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that they were "generally" positive on stocks in emerging markets, as the "underlying profit growth?is likely to remain strong." The region's earnings will be driven by AI-related demands, which are relatively protected from the direct effects of the oil crisis. The Australian jobs numbers and the Chinese GDP are due to be released. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), a pillar of the AI industry, will release its quarterly 'earnings. A 50% increase in net profit is expected due to a surge in demand for their?advanced chip. Oil markets saw Brent crude open 0.4% lower, at $94.55 per barrel. A?source briefed from Tehran said that Iran might 'consider' allowing ships to freely sail through the Omani-side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack. This is part of a proposal it made in negotiations with the United States. Gold recovered 0.8%, to $4,829.24. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin remained flat at $74,832.83 while ether fell 0.1%, to $2,360.71. (Reporting and editing by William Mallard; Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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Thailand's central bank reduces growth for 2026, but says there are no limits to the worst-case scenario if war continues
Thailand's growth will be slower this year due to the Iran conflict and there are "nearly no limits" in worst-case scenarios if the conflict continues. A senior central bank official said. The Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chaianant stated that the growth of the Southeast Asian nation was slowing. This is because the country's economy, which is highly exposed to global economic conditions due to its high dependence on imported energy imports, has a low rate of growth. The U.S./Israeli war against Iran has led to a decline in tourism and an increase in import costs. Chai-anant, on the sidelines at the IMF/World Bank spring meeting in Washington, said: "It will be the downward trend of a lot of things." She said that tourism from Gulf countries fell to almost zero in March as Iranian attacks closed regional airports. These numbers are still not fully recovered, and their wealthy visitors account for about 7% of the total tourism expenditure in Thailand. As fuel prices rise, the number of tourists driving from Malaysia to Thailand is also decreasing. The central bank has revised its baseline GDP growth forecasts to 1.3% for 2026, if the war ends by the second half this year. In December, the central bank had predicted a growth rate of 1.9%. However, in February the government raised its forecast to between 1.5% and 2.5%. In this scenario, inflation is expected to reach 3.5%. She said that Thailand's position as a country at the beginning of the crisis helped it to absorb the shock. However, the economy was under severe pressure. There are no limits when it comes to the "worst case scenarios". She said, "It's really bad." She said policymakers expected a current account positive of about $12 billion for the entire year. However, that figure would need to be revised downward. She didn't rule out that the account could go negative. Even then, the bank governor said, a rate increase would not be enough to combat supply-driven inflation. Chai-anant stated that the sharp outflows of equity and debt in Thailand between February and March could be managed and have already returned to positive territory in April. She said that the Fund’s autumn meetings in Bangkok, which will be held in October, would give global officials the chance to meet those who are “severely affected by the conflict,” but that she was confident the economy would find a way forward by that time. She said: "We can show that Asian countries have very strong fundamentals and are agile when it comes to adaptation." (Reporting and editing by Lisa Shumaker; Libby George)
Oil prices drop as US-Iran agreement hopes outweigh concerns about supply disruption
Early Thursday, oil prices dropped as the 'hopes for a thawing of U.S. - Iran tensions', following reports that Iran would allow?ships around the Strait of Hormuz to pass, outweighed concerns about?ongoing disruptions in supply.
Brent crude futures fell 44 cents or 0.5% to $94.49 per barrel at 0021 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures were down 70 cents or 0.8% at $90.59 per barrel.
Both benchmarks settled with little change on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the White House expressed optimism about a possible deal with Iran to end this war. It also warned that if Tehran continues to be defiant, it would face increased economic pressure. Tehran informed a source that Iran would consider allowing ships to pass freely through the Omani side of Strait of Hormuz in the event of a deal to end the conflict.
Toshitaka?Tazawa, an economist at Fujitomi Securities, said that while there is hope for de-escalation many investors are still sceptical.
He added that WTI prices will continue to fluctuate between $80 and $110 until a peace agreement is reached and the free navigation of the Strait is restored.
U.S. and Israeli war against Iran resulted in largest ever disruption to global oil and gas supply due to Iran's blocking of traffic through the strait. The strait handles around 20% of world oil and liquefied 'natural gas' flows. U.S. officials and Iranian officials are considering a trip to Pakistan this weekend for more talks after Sunday's negotiations ended without a breakthrough. The chief of Pakistan's Army arrived in Tehran, Iran on Wednesday as a mediator to "try to prevent" a renewed conflict.
The U.S. military has said that the blockade on shipping leaving Iranian ports has stopped all trade entering and exiting Iran by sea.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Wednesday that Washington would not renew waivers which allowed some oil to be purchased from?Iran and Russia without facing U.S. sanctions. The U.S. Energy?Administration reported on Wednesday that crude oil inventories had fallen by 913,000 to 463.8 million in the week ending April 10. This was in contrast with the 154,000 barrels analysts expected in a survey. (Reporting and editing by Yuka Obayashi.
(source: Reuters)