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Mike Dolan: Trump's biggest problem could be the 'true cost of living.'

Most households include the cost to live in the cost of their money. If borrowing costs increase again to "choke off inflation", the political fallout may rival the cost of living backlash that plagued Democrats in the 2020 election.

For many reasons, the U.S. In his first term and second, President Donald Trump repeatedly called for lower interest rates. No doubt, the mood of electorate is one of them.

The Iran War and the energy shock that accompanied it have, most likely, pushed inflation above 4% in this month. Gas prices are also more than 40% higher compared to a year earlier. This mood has already soured.

The University of Michigan’s monthly consumer survey revealed that its main sentiment reading plunged to a new record low in the month of May. This was lower than any other point in the series, which dates back to 1960.

Even among Republican voters, public opinion polls show a similar picture.

According to the most recent /Ipsos survey, only 47% of Republicans approve of Trump's performance on cost of living. 46% disagree. Just one out of five Americans approve of Trump's performance on cost of living.

This puts a spotlight on Trump's apparent softening of his stance this week regarding interest rate cuts, as Kevin Warsh takes over the Federal Reserve.

Trump said to the Washington Examiner that Warsh could do whatever he wanted on interest rates. This is in stark contrast with the previous year when he lambasted the outgoing Jerome Powell.

This may have been just another throwaway comment from Trump.

It may also be an acknowledgment that Warsh will have to lead Fed actions to reign in rising inflation. This could mean holding off on any further rate cuts or, if the futures markets are correct, increasing rates by year's end.

The White House may have calculated that the public wants some assurances the Fed can do its job.

There is a tense situation that Trump's predecessor Joe Biden, and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris faced as they approached the 2024 elections.

Consumer sentiment and approval ratings of the administration sagged in the run-up to the election despite a recovering economy, stock market and declining inflation. The "cost of living" was the top complaint of voters.

SICK AND CURE?

There are two main economic reasons that are frequently cited.

First, even though inflation rates had dropped by half from their peak in 2022 at the time of the election, the rise in prices cumulatively over the past four years was still a concern for households whose wages hadn't kept pace.

Regardless of the rate at which prices rose, the consumer price indexes increased by 17% during Biden's tenure. Since Trump's return, they have risen by 4% more.

Second, the Fed's solution to curbing price inflation is higher borrowing costs.

In a 2024 paper, Larry Summers Marijn Bolhuis Judd Cramer discussed how the "true cost-of-living" has affected household sentiments over time. This complicates any assessment on voter pain because it captures both the inflation-disease and the interest rate cure.

They wrote: "The cost of money for consumers is part of cost of living."

The "alternative cost of living" measure that includes home loans, car financing, and credit card borrowing, rose 14% by 2023, while consumer price indexes only increased 4%.

As inflation increased, markets began to question whether the Fed might be forced to increase policy rates. This has increased consumer borrowing costs.

Even though the Fed rate has fallen well below its 2024 peak, credit card, auto loan, and fixed-rate mortgage costs are still more than 50% higher than they were before COVID-19.

The Misery Index, a measure of inflation and unemployment that combines the 10-year Treasury borrowing rates, is at its highest level since February 2023.

The Fed might feel that it must act immediately to curb inflation expectations and regain credibility in meeting its 2% target, which it has missed for many years. The markets understand the logic, but not everyone does.

Even if the Fed's tightening of monetary policy eventually brings inflation under control, political backlash among Americans may be exacerbated by doing what policymakers "think" is right.

Trump could be in a difficult position. He may have to decide whether he wants to support the Fed's actions or not. Biden's approval ratings were not boosted by Biden's support for the Fed's late, but severe action to control inflation between 2022 and 2023. But it is anyone's guess what the inflation rate might have been if they hadn't taken any action.

The temptation for Trump to use the Fed to blame the public's dissatisfaction with the economy could be too much in the end.

The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)